SMARTSMART Annual Report Annual Report

Hammamat 2004Hammamat 2004Abo Qir Bay Abo Qir Bay

Region, EgyptRegion, EgyptMohamed El RaeyMohamed El Raey

CEDARECEDARE

Table of ContentsTable of Contents Executive summaryExecutive summary1.1. IntroductionIntroduction2.2. Rosetta Study RegionRosetta Study Region3.3. Hydrology of the study areaHydrology of the study area4.4. Morphodynamic changes Morphodynamic changes 5.5. Water Quality ProblemsWater Quality Problems6.6. Socioeconomic Systems and conditionsSocioeconomic Systems and conditions7.7. Problems and conflicts of the RegionProblems and conflicts of the Region8.8. Monitoring and AssessmentMonitoring and Assessment9.9. Land cover analysis using satellite images Land cover analysis using satellite images 10.10. Building Geographic Information System Building Geographic Information System 11.11. Mathematical ModelingMathematical Modeling12.12. Suitability analysis and Plan for developmentSuitability analysis and Plan for development13.13. Conclusion and future workConclusion and future work14.14. References References

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Mediterranean Sea

Rosetta Nile Estuary

Abu Kir Bay

Lake Edku

Mediterranean Sea

Rosetta Nile Estuary

Abu Kir Bay

Lake Edku

CanalsDrainsLakesRosetta branch

Image of study areaImage of study area

Morphodynamic Morphodynamic changes of the changes of the

study areastudy area

Archeology of the regionArcheology of the region

International road across International road across study areastudy area

GIS AgricultureGIS Agriculture

GIS Artificial AreasGIS Artificial Areas

GIS BathymetryGIS Bathymetry

GIS SoilGIS Soil

GIS Irrigation and GIS Irrigation and DrainageDrainage

GIS TransportationGIS Transportation

Satellite Imagery Satellite Imagery Change Detection AnalysisChange Detection Analysis

Satellite Satellite NameName

SensorSensor No. of Spectral bandsNo. of Spectral bands Spatial resolutionSpatial resolution YearYear

LANDSATLANDSAT MSSMSS FourFour 80 Meter80 Meter 19851985

LANDSATLANDSAT MSSMSS FourFour 80 Meter80 Meter 19901990

SPOTSPOT HRVHRV ThreeThree 20 Meter20 Meter 19951995

LANDSATLANDSAT TMTM SevenSeven 30 Meter30 Meter 20002000

Data Availability

1. Satellite Images

2. Topographic Maps

Six topographic maps were used in the study, they are

produced by Military Survey Department; Ministry of

Defense. They cover 1.Kafr El-Dawar, 2.Damanhour,

3.Dessouk 4.Abu Qir, 5.Rosetta, and 6.Edfina. The scale of

the maps is 1:50,000.

Corine land cover Corine land cover classificationclassification

Annual crops associated Annual crops associated with permanent cropswith permanent crops

Changes in beaches and Changes in beaches and dunesdunes

Changes in urban fabricsChanges in urban fabrics

Changes in fruit and Palm Changes in fruit and Palm treestrees

Erosion and AccretionErosion and Accretion between 1990-1995 and between 1990-1995 and

20002000

Results of change detectionResults of change detection 1990-1995 and 2000 1990-1995 and 2000

C l a s sC l a s s 1990 Area(km2)1990 Area(km2) 1995 Area(km2)1995 Area(km2) 2000 Area(km2)2000 Area(km2)

Change% from Change% from original original

AreaArea(1990-1995)(1990-1995)

Change% from Change% from original original

AreaArea(1995-2000)(1995-2000)

Water CoursesWater Courses 576.6576.6 572.34572.34 580.37580.37 -0.74-0.74 1.41.4

Natural GrasslandNatural Grassland 23.2123.21 15.0215.02 39.4439.44 -35.3-35.3 162.6162.6

Salt MarshesSalt Marshes 80.780.7 63.9763.97 79.5479.54 -20.73-20.73 24.324.3

Permanently Irrigated LandPermanently Irrigated Land 75.8575.85 49.0449.04 62.5862.58 -35.34-35.34 27.727.7

Beaches, Dunes, and Sand Beaches, Dunes, and Sand PlainsPlains 52.7352.73 52.0252.02 60.5460.54 -1.34-1.34 16.316.3

Complex Cultivation Complex Cultivation PatternsPatterns 95.8995.89 117.05117.05 114.63114.63 22.0722.07 -2.06-2.06

Annual Crops Associated Annual Crops Associated with Permanent Cropswith Permanent Crops 145.07145.07 188.88188.88 189.52189.52 30.230.2 0.340.34

Fruit Trees and PalmsFruit Trees and Palms 133.31133.31 109.89109.89 43.19843.198 -17.57-17.57 -60.7-60.7

Discontinuous Urban FabricDiscontinuous Urban Fabric 52.2552.25 47.6747.67 58.7858.78 -8.77-8.77 23.623.6

Change Detection Change Detection ConclusionsConclusions

Recent results of the analysis of satellite images change Recent results of the analysis of satellite images change detection as integrated with earlier results (El Raey et al, 1995) detection as integrated with earlier results (El Raey et al, 1995) have revealed the following:have revealed the following:

1.1. A strong component of erosion and accretion along the coast and A strong component of erosion and accretion along the coast and particularly at the promontory has been in operation at a high particularly at the promontory has been in operation at a high rate until 1990. It is still in operation at a slower rate in 2000rate until 1990. It is still in operation at a slower rate in 2000

2.2. The loss of fruit and palm trees class has started earlier than The loss of fruit and palm trees class has started earlier than 1990 and continued throughout the period and has reached its 1990 and continued throughout the period and has reached its highest rate in 1995-2000. Socioeconomic consideration of such highest rate in 1995-2000. Socioeconomic consideration of such activity has to be thoroughly investigated.activity has to be thoroughly investigated.

3.3. The large increase in natural grass land in the area may be The large increase in natural grass land in the area may be associated with the establishment of the international road and associated with the establishment of the international road and the drive of people to establish ownership of the land through the drive of people to establish ownership of the land through fake cultivation. This has to be investigated through direct fake cultivation. This has to be investigated through direct contacts.contacts.

4.4. A serious increase in the rate of changes in discontinuous urban A serious increase in the rate of changes in discontinuous urban fabric has also been observed over the same period indicating fabric has also been observed over the same period indicating socioeconomic pressures and shortage of law enforcement socioeconomic pressures and shortage of law enforcement capabilities.capabilities.

Future Outlook of Change Future Outlook of Change DetectionDetection

Cross association analysis is in Cross association analysis is in progress to identify driving forcesprogress to identify driving forces

Analysis of 1990 and 1985 images is Analysis of 1990 and 1985 images is in progress to assess whether these in progress to assess whether these patterns are persistent over a long patterns are persistent over a long time period or it is transient patterntime period or it is transient pattern

A higher resolution analysis of A higher resolution analysis of satellite imagery for land use satellite imagery for land use changes is also under investigationchanges is also under investigation

Legal criteriaLegal criteria To meet the strict legal aspects and environmental To meet the strict legal aspects and environmental

guidelines, the following criteria are taken into guidelines, the following criteria are taken into consideration:consideration:

1.1. Location of any construction must be beyond 200 m of the Location of any construction must be beyond 200 m of the shoreline (i.e setback distance) according to Environment Law shoreline (i.e setback distance) according to Environment Law no. 4/1994.no. 4/1994.

2.2. Site must be beyond 50 m of highways, railways, and major roads Site must be beyond 50 m of highways, railways, and major roads to avoid accidents, noise, and pollution hazards.to avoid accidents, noise, and pollution hazards.

3.3. Locations of the proposed sites must be beyond 100 m minimum Locations of the proposed sites must be beyond 100 m minimum buffer zone of major industrial activities.buffer zone of major industrial activities.

4.4. Sites must be beyond 100 m of towns, and residential areas.Sites must be beyond 100 m of towns, and residential areas.5.5. Sites must be beyond 100 m of historical sites.Sites must be beyond 100 m of historical sites.6.6. Sites must be beyond 100 m of lakes, water streams, and Sites must be beyond 100 m of lakes, water streams, and

drainage canals.drainage canals.7.7. Location of sites should be characterized by the ease of access Location of sites should be characterized by the ease of access

through a good network of roads, and accessible from highways.through a good network of roads, and accessible from highways.8.8. Locations of the proposed development areas are preferred to be Locations of the proposed development areas are preferred to be

centralized, and not to be distributed among existing urban centralized, and not to be distributed among existing urban settlements.settlements.

Planning criteriaPlanning criteria (1)(1) The type of soil is the most important criteria. It is The type of soil is the most important criteria. It is

necessary to choose soil types suitable for development. Areas of necessary to choose soil types suitable for development. Areas of fragile soils such as Sabkha and soft mud are not suitable for fragile soils such as Sabkha and soft mud are not suitable for development, and therefore must be excluded.development, and therefore must be excluded.

(2)(2) Slope suitability is also an important criterion. Slopes Slope suitability is also an important criterion. Slopes must not exceed 30% to achieve common construction must not exceed 30% to achieve common construction considerations. Areas of 5-10% slopes are acceptable, but they considerations. Areas of 5-10% slopes are acceptable, but they are not considered the most suitable. Areas of slopes between are not considered the most suitable. Areas of slopes between 10% and 15% are most suitable. Those areas having slopes of 10% and 15% are most suitable. Those areas having slopes of 15-30% will be considered if a viewing panorama is to be 15-30% will be considered if a viewing panorama is to be achieved.achieved.

(3)(3) The proposed areas should have a minimum elevation of The proposed areas should have a minimum elevation of 0.5 m above sea level. 0.5 m above sea level.

(4)(4) The potential sites for development are preferred to be facing The potential sites for development are preferred to be facing the prevailing wind direction.the prevailing wind direction.

(5)(5) Potential sites are preferred to be overlooking a Potential sites are preferred to be overlooking a panoramic view. This means that the sites are either overlooking panoramic view. This means that the sites are either overlooking sand dunes or the sea side. sand dunes or the sea side.

Suitability AnalysisSuitability Analysis

Hydrology and Pollution Hydrology and Pollution Distribution ModelDistribution Model

TELLEMAC Model analysis and TELLEMAC Model analysis and interpretation is in progress. interpretation is in progress.

Refinement of parameters for Refinement of parameters for TELEMAC and comparison to results TELEMAC and comparison to results of AQUASEA model is planned.of AQUASEA model is planned.

Preliminary results indicate Preliminary results indicate feasibility and need for more reliable feasibility and need for more reliable data , calibration and verificationdata , calibration and verification

SMART options for SMART options for development development

(To be explored)(To be explored)The following options should be explored through The following options should be explored through

questionnaires of stakeholders from the point of questionnaires of stakeholders from the point of view of potential impacts, duration, equity, cost,…view of potential impacts, duration, equity, cost,…

1.1. High quality water conservation and management High quality water conservation and management programs (physical and/or economic).programs (physical and/or economic).

2.2. Drastic changes and control of waste pattern Drastic changes and control of waste pattern through upgrading awareness and reducing through upgrading awareness and reducing pollutionpollution

3.3. Building wastewater treatment plants ( cost, Building wastewater treatment plants ( cost, location)location)

4.4. Considering other water resources such as Considering other water resources such as groundwater and/or extension of fresh water from groundwater and/or extension of fresh water from Alexandria (expenses)Alexandria (expenses)

5.5. No actionNo action

IndicatorsIndicators

1.1. Satellite time series of changes of land Satellite time series of changes of land useuse

2.2. Coastal pollution parameters (monthly)Coastal pollution parameters (monthly)

3.3. Sea level rise from tide gauges Sea level rise from tide gauges (monthly)(monthly)

4.4. Fish catch speciation (monthly)Fish catch speciation (monthly)

5.5. Water quality prone health parameters Water quality prone health parameters (monthly)(monthly)

6.6. Socioeconomic parametersSocioeconomic parameters

Preliminary plan for Preliminary plan for developmentdevelopment

Achievements so farAchievements so far1.1. Water resources, geo-morphological conditions, pollution Water resources, geo-morphological conditions, pollution

sources, socioeconomic conditions, have all been surveyed sources, socioeconomic conditions, have all been surveyed and explored. Problems of the region have been well and explored. Problems of the region have been well identified and analyzed.identified and analyzed.

2.2. A Geographic Information System at a scale of 1:50,000 A Geographic Information System at a scale of 1:50,000 have been built. Data concerning important parameters have been built. Data concerning important parameters such as land use, topography, transportation networks, such as land use, topography, transportation networks, administrative boundaries, have been encoded. administrative boundaries, have been encoded.

3.3. Satellite images of the years 1990, 1995 and 2000 have Satellite images of the years 1990, 1995 and 2000 have been classified and analysis of change detection indicates been classified and analysis of change detection indicates dramatic changes of land cover and land use in the region. dramatic changes of land cover and land use in the region.

4.4. Indicators of the variability of physical, chemical and Indicators of the variability of physical, chemical and biological parameters of the bay have been collected and a biological parameters of the bay have been collected and a time series analysis is in progress to identify and assess time series analysis is in progress to identify and assess relationships among parameters.relationships among parameters.

5.5. A model for identification and assessment of future A model for identification and assessment of future implications of water quality changes in the region has been implications of water quality changes in the region has been developed and is under calibration and verificationdeveloped and is under calibration and verification

Future Outlook and Work in Future Outlook and Work in Progress Progress

1.1. Upgrading and validationUpgrading and validation of GIS database, of GIS database, improving map server site.improving map server site.

2.2. Continuation of LCLU change detection and Continuation of LCLU change detection and analysisanalysis of satellite images of 1990 and compare to of satellite images of 1990 and compare to models of land use and check reasons for change.models of land use and check reasons for change.

3.3. Emphasize Emphasize calibration and verification of calibration and verification of TELLEMAC and AQUASEA Models for pollution TELLEMAC and AQUASEA Models for pollution distribution and controldistribution and control

4.4. Identification and analysis of indicatorsIdentification and analysis of indicators (physical, (physical, health and socio-economic) and investigation of health and socio-economic) and investigation of water quality related impacts.water quality related impacts.

5.5. Dissemination of experienceDissemination of experience and results on the and results on the local and international scales.local and international scales.

Future PlansFuture Plans

1.1. Change detection analysis of satellite images over the last Change detection analysis of satellite images over the last 15-20 years is planned in order to identify and assess 15-20 years is planned in order to identify and assess detected changes of land use in the regiondetected changes of land use in the region

2.2. Collecting and analyzing long time series indicators of Collecting and analyzing long time series indicators of performance of the region such as marine pollution performance of the region such as marine pollution indicators, water quality parameters, sea level changes, indicators, water quality parameters, sea level changes, fisheries and socioeconomic parameters fisheries and socioeconomic parameters

3.3. Questionnaire analysis will be designed for stakeholders and Questionnaire analysis will be designed for stakeholders and dissemination of output information on development of the dissemination of output information on development of the region will be carried out.region will be carried out.

4.4. Refinement and updating of GIS data base and analysis to Refinement and updating of GIS data base and analysis to identify best available sites for major important development identify best available sites for major important development projects of the region.projects of the region.

5.5. Carrying out a Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Carrying out a Strategic Environmental Assessment of the plan for sustainable development of the region based on plan for sustainable development of the region based on principles of ICZM in view of scarce resources of water principles of ICZM in view of scarce resources of water quality.quality.

6.6. A program for dissemination of results obtained and A program for dissemination of results obtained and integration will be carried outintegration will be carried out

7.7. Two girls registered for Ph.D. will join the team for working Two girls registered for Ph.D. will join the team for working on change detection analysis and modeling.on change detection analysis and modeling.