SMARTSMARTSustainable Management of Scarce Sustainable Management of Scarce

Resources in the Coastal ZoneResources in the Coastal Zone

Kick-off meeting Cairo, 5-6 Jan. 2003Kick-off meeting Cairo, 5-6 Jan. 2003

Coordinator:Coordinator:

Nelson Lourenço Nelson Lourenço (UNL)(UNL) (Sociology)(Sociology)

Researchers:Researchers:

Luís RodriguesLuís Rodrigues (Geography)(Geography)

Maria do Rosário Jorge Maria do Rosário Jorge (Sociology)(Sociology)

Carlos Russo MachadoCarlos Russo Machado (Geography)(Geography)

Patrícia Melo Patrícia Melo (Administrative support)(Administrative support)

Portuguese research teamPortuguese research teamUATLAUATLA

UNDERSTAND SOCIAL SUB-SYSTEMS AND NATURAL SUB-UNDERSTAND SOCIAL SUB-SYSTEMS AND NATURAL SUB-SYSTEMS INTERACTIONS IN THE FRAME OF GLOBAL SYSTEMSYSTEMS INTERACTIONS IN THE FRAME OF GLOBAL SYSTEM

Social systems are changing at the same time as they modify natural Social systems are changing at the same time as they modify natural systemssystems

Understand the environmental impacts of the human Understand the environmental impacts of the human actions at different levels of analysisactions at different levels of analysis

Understand the problems behind the changes and the Understand the problems behind the changes and the effects over the agents present in theffects over the agents present in thoseose areas areas

Address the unifying issue of social, economic and Address the unifying issue of social, economic and environmental sustainabilityenvironmental sustainability

UA

TLA

UA

TLA

• Land Use and Land Cover Changes Land Use and Land Cover Changes

• Sustainable Water Management Sustainable Water Management

• Coastal Areas Management Coastal Areas Management

• Sustainable Tropical Forest Management Sustainable Tropical Forest Management

• Policies Evaluation and Decision Processes Policies Evaluation and Decision Processes

• Territory and DevelopmentTerritory and Development

UA

TLA

UA

TLA

Departing from this frame, the research Departing from this frame, the research embraces the following subjectsembraces the following subjects

Monitoring and managing changes in rural marginal areas: a comparative researchMonitoring and managing changes in rural marginal areas: a comparative research (MARGIN)(MARGIN) Finished in 1997Finished in 1997

Qualification of Human Resources and the Development of Peripheral regionsQualification of Human Resources and the Development of Peripheral regions (QRH)(QRH) Finished in 1998Finished in 1998

Land use change: Methodological approach to understand the interactions Land use change: Methodological approach to understand the interactions Nature/Society in coastal areasNature/Society in coastal areas (ALENCOAST) (ALENCOAST) Finished in 1999Finished in 1999

Spatial Impact of Rural Environment EU Policies: a regional comparative analysis of land Spatial Impact of Rural Environment EU Policies: a regional comparative analysis of land useuse (SIMLUC)(SIMLUC) Finished in 2000Finished in 2000

Measuring, Monitoring and Managing Sustainability: the coastal dimension in IndiaMeasuring, Monitoring and Managing Sustainability: the coastal dimension in India (COASTIN)(COASTIN) Finished inFinished in 2002

Multi-sectoral, Integrated and Operational decision support system for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale (MULINO) To be concluded in 2003

Decision Support System for Sustainable Ecosystem Management in Atlantic Rain Forest Rural Areas (ECOMAN) To be concluded in 2004

UATLA projects related to the SMARTUATLA projects related to the SMART

UATLAUATLA

Monitoring and managing changes in rural marginal areas: a comparative research (MARGIN) Finished in 1997

Qualification of Human Resources and the Development of Peripheral regions (QRH) Finished in 1998

Land use change: Methodological approach to understand the interactions Nature/Society in coastal areas (ALENCOAST) Finished in 1999

Spatial Impact of Rural Environment EU Policies: a regional comparative analysis of land use (SIMLUC) Finished in 2000

Measuring, Monitoring and Managing Sustainability: the coastal dimension in India (COASTIN) Finished in 2002

Multi-sectoral, Integrated and Operational decision support system for sustainable use Multi-sectoral, Integrated and Operational decision support system for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scaleof water resources at the catchment scale (MULINO)(MULINO) To be concluded in 2003To be concluded in 2003

Decision Support System for Sustainable Ecosystem Management in Atlantic Rain Decision Support System for Sustainable Ecosystem Management in Atlantic Rain Forest Rural AreasForest Rural Areas (ECOMAN)(ECOMAN) To be concluded in 2004To be concluded in 2004

UATLA projects related to the SMARTUATLA projects related to the SMART

UATLAUATLA

SMART WorkPlanSMART WorkPlanRole of UATLARole of UATLA

WP 02 WP 02

Socio-economic framework and guidelinesSocio-economic framework and guidelinesLead by UATLA with the cooperation of FEEMLead by UATLA with the cooperation of FEEM

WP 10 WP 10

Comparative policy analysisComparative policy analysisLead by FEEM with the cooperation of UATLALead by FEEM with the cooperation of UATLA

WP 02WP 02Socio-economic framework and guidelinesSocio-economic framework and guidelines

General objectiveGeneral objectiveThe analysis of the local water policies and regulations The analysis of the local water policies and regulations will be the basis of the comparative analysis between EU will be the basis of the comparative analysis between EU and Mediterranean countries, as an approach to the and Mediterranean countries, as an approach to the study of sustainable coastal developmentstudy of sustainable coastal development

The main reference for sustainable water management in the EU is the Water The main reference for sustainable water management in the EU is the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC)Framework Directive (2000/60/EC)

Therefore, to achieve the general objective we have to Therefore, to achieve the general objective we have to analyse the socio-economic dimensions considered in analyse the socio-economic dimensions considered in the Water Framework Directive (WFD)the Water Framework Directive (WFD)

WP 02WP 02Socio-economic framework and guidelinesSocio-economic framework and guidelines

Specific objectives:Specific objectives: Population, demographic and migration policy Population, demographic and migration policy

analysis - analysis - Task 1 Task 1 Political and economic options adopted for the study Political and economic options adopted for the study

areas - areas - Task 2 Task 2

Competing water uses - Competing water uses - Task 3Task 3

Economic analysis of water resources - Economic analysis of water resources - Task 4Task 4

WP 02 - Task 1WP 02 - Task 1Population, demographic and migration policy analysis Population, demographic and migration policy analysis

Population analysis, including migration issues and Population analysis, including migration issues and projections (evolution of the demographic variables and projections (evolution of the demographic variables and the trends observed in the near past) the trends observed in the near past)

Analysis of demographic policies influencing the growth Analysis of demographic policies influencing the growth trendstrends

Data needs for the population analysis Data needs for the population analysis

(by municipality)(by municipality) Resident population by gender and age groups (five years) – Three Resident population by gender and age groups (five years) – Three

census: 1981, 1991 and 2001 (?) (by the smallest administrative unit?)census: 1981, 1991 and 2001 (?) (by the smallest administrative unit?)

Urban and rural population distribution (by the smallest administrative Urban and rural population distribution (by the smallest administrative unit?)unit?)

Number of deaths by age groups: four years around 1981, 1991 and Number of deaths by age groups: four years around 1981, 1991 and 20012001

Number of births by gender: four years around 1981, 1991 and 2001Number of births by gender: four years around 1981, 1991 and 2001

Inmigration data: internal and outbound between 1981 and 2001 (by Inmigration data: internal and outbound between 1981 and 2001 (by year?)year?)

Emigration data: internal and outbound between 1981 and 2001 (by Emigration data: internal and outbound between 1981 and 2001 (by year?)year?)

WP 02 - Task 1WP 02 - Task 1Population, demographic and migration policy analysis Population, demographic and migration policy analysis

Data needs for demographic policy analysisData needs for demographic policy analysis

Migration policiesMigration policies

Limiting or free migration policies can have Limiting or free migration policies can have different effects on the population growthdifferent effects on the population growth

Birth policiesBirth policies

Birth control policy or promoting the increase of Birth control policy or promoting the increase of fertilityfertility

Health policies Health policies

Control of specific diseases or general Control of specific diseases or general improvement of the health systemimprovement of the health system

WP 02 - Task 1WP 02 - Task 1Population, demographic and migration policy analysis Population, demographic and migration policy analysis

MethodologyMethodology

IndicatorsIndicators Demographic (population density, natural and migration Demographic (population density, natural and migration

growth rate, elderly rate...)growth rate, elderly rate...)Documental analysis Documental analysis

Analysis of the policies and their influence in the Analysis of the policies and their influence in the demographic trendsdemographic trends

Population projections based on:Population projections based on: Business as usual scenario resulting from the growth rate Business as usual scenario resulting from the growth rate

in the last 20 years in the last 20 years Scenarios resulting from the demographic policy analysisScenarios resulting from the demographic policy analysis Scenarios resulting from urban/rural population trends of Scenarios resulting from urban/rural population trends of

changechange

WP 02 - Task 1WP 02 - Task 1Population, demographic and migration policy analysis Population, demographic and migration policy analysis

The level and the pattern of economic growth is, The level and the pattern of economic growth is, among other causes, a result of the existing among other causes, a result of the existing policiespolicies

The task will analyse these policies and the The task will analyse these policies and the options for economic growth that can be at the options for economic growth that can be at the origin of competing uses of waterorigin of competing uses of water

WP 02 - Task 2WP 02 - Task 2Political and economic options adopted for the study areasPolitical and economic options adopted for the study areas

The level and the pattern of economic growth and its The level and the pattern of economic growth and its consequences in terms of labour demand will also be consequences in terms of labour demand will also be important issues to analyse:important issues to analyse:

Are the economic activities localized in the urban-rural Are the economic activities localized in the urban-rural interface more labour demanding? interface more labour demanding?

Which are the pressures caused by increasing demand? Which are the pressures caused by increasing demand? In what way is the political structure able to intervene? In what way is the political structure able to intervene?

The planning and management instruments in the The planning and management instruments in the regions studied and the levels in which decisions are regions studied and the levels in which decisions are taken will be studied in this tasktaken will be studied in this task

WP 02 - Task 2WP 02 - Task 2Political and economic options adopted for the study areas Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Data needsData needs

Water policies evolution (time frames depending on the policy issues Water policies evolution (time frames depending on the policy issues in each case): in each case):

Water policiesWater policiesCoastal zone policiesCoastal zone policiesOther policies (disciplinary, spatial and environmental)Other policies (disciplinary, spatial and environmental)

Land cover and land cover changes results - thematic maps including Land cover and land cover changes results - thematic maps including (time frames ?): (time frames ?):

Urban areasUrban areasIndustrial areasIndustrial areasForest areaForest areaAgricultural land (rainfed and irrigated areas; pastures)Agricultural land (rainfed and irrigated areas; pastures)Agro-forest landAgro-forest landBarren landBarren land

WP 02 - Task 2WP 02 - Task 2Political and economic options adopted for the study areas Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Data needs Data needs (by municipality)(by municipality)

Economic activity (more than one moment, depending on Economic activity (more than one moment, depending on the land cover time frame): the land cover time frame):

Employment by main activity sectors (primary, secondary and tertiary), Employment by main activity sectors (primary, secondary and tertiary), giving especial importance to the more significant activitiesgiving especial importance to the more significant activities

Agriculture (aquaculture?) activity indicators: number and size of farms, Agriculture (aquaculture?) activity indicators: number and size of farms, characteristics of the labour force (familiar and non-familiar, part-time characteristics of the labour force (familiar and non-familiar, part-time and full-time farmers, qualified and non-qualified workers), subsistence and full-time farmers, qualified and non-qualified workers), subsistence and market oriented and income distribution by type of productionand market oriented and income distribution by type of production

Industrial activity indicators: type and number of units, income Industrial activity indicators: type and number of units, income distribution by main industrial activity groups and market orientation and distribution by main industrial activity groups and market orientation and technological and training leveltechnological and training level

Tertiary activity indicators (isolating commercial activities, tourism and Tertiary activity indicators (isolating commercial activities, tourism and other services): type and number of units and employment distribution, other services): type and number of units and employment distribution, contribution to regional product, number of tourists, national and contribution to regional product, number of tourists, national and international tourists, seasonality international tourists, seasonality

WP 02 - Task 2WP 02 - Task 2Political and economic options adopted for the study areas Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Data needsData needs

Environmental and spatial planning and management tools Environmental and spatial planning and management tools influencing the case study areainfluencing the case study area

Strategic and regulatory instruments at national, regional and municipal Strategic and regulatory instruments at national, regional and municipal levelslevels

Other important economic and regional policiesOther important economic and regional policies Regional development plans Regional development plans

Identification and characterisation of the different levels of decision Identification and characterisation of the different levels of decision related to the water managementrelated to the water management

NationalNational Regional Regional Municipality/LocalMunicipality/Local

WP 02 - Task 2WP 02 - Task 2Political and economic options adopted for the study areas Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

MethodologyMethodology IndicatorsIndicators

Urban and tourism pressureUrban and tourism pressureEconomic (e.g. tourism...)Economic (e.g. tourism...)

Documental analysis Documental analysis Analysis of the policies and their influence in the water useAnalysis of the policies and their influence in the water useFulfill a matrix with the policy frame of the last years (UATLA Fulfill a matrix with the policy frame of the last years (UATLA

will provide the guidelines to the matrix)will provide the guidelines to the matrix) Water demand characterisationWater demand characterisation

Water domestic consumption per person Water domestic consumption per person Water consumption by industrial units (by type of units)Water consumption by industrial units (by type of units)Water consumption in agriculture and/or aquaculture (by type of Water consumption in agriculture and/or aquaculture (by type of

production per area)production per area)Water consumption per touristWater consumption per tourist

WP 02 - Task 2WP 02 - Task 2Political and economic options adopted for the study areas Political and economic options adopted for the study areas

Identification of water demands by each type of useIdentification of water demands by each type of use

Characterisation of the various actors and interests related to the Characterisation of the various actors and interests related to the

water uses water uses

Analysis of the economic and demographic structureAnalysis of the economic and demographic structure Rural/urban interface could be analysed in terms of the multi-Rural/urban interface could be analysed in terms of the multi-

disciplinary conflicts resulting from the water demandsdisciplinary conflicts resulting from the water demands

The previous analysis wil be used to identify current and projected The previous analysis wil be used to identify current and projected

water demandswater demands

WP 02 - Task 3WP 02 - Task 3Competing water usesCompeting water uses

MethodologyMethodology

Analysis of the data collected in the previous tasks Analysis of the data collected in the previous tasks

Group discussion with the stakeholders representing the different Group discussion with the stakeholders representing the different water uses/demands (UATLA will provide the guidelines to the water uses/demands (UATLA will provide the guidelines to the group discussion and a matrix of analysis)group discussion and a matrix of analysis)

Water demand scenarios:Water demand scenarios:

Business as usual scenario resulting from the consumption of the Business as usual scenario resulting from the consumption of the last years last years

Scenarios resulting from the water price changesScenarios resulting from the water price changes

Scenarios resulting from the population projections (e.g. urban/rural Scenarios resulting from the population projections (e.g. urban/rural consumption)consumption)

Scenarios resulting from the development of agriculture, industry, Scenarios resulting from the development of agriculture, industry, tourism…tourism…

WP 02 - Task 3WP 02 - Task 3Competing water usesCompeting water uses

The most important issue is the evaluation of the costs The most important issue is the evaluation of the costs of water among the different water usersof water among the different water users

Water price is set on a political base and therefore full-Water price is set on a political base and therefore full-cost pricing of water services is often not achieved: cost pricing of water services is often not achieved:

Pay too little (i.e. agriculture) Pay too little (i.e. agriculture)

Value of water is not calculated according to water use Value of water is not calculated according to water use

Pay too high a price (i.e. civil, industry)Pay too high a price (i.e. civil, industry)

WP 02 - Task 4WP 02 - Task 4Economic analysis of water resources Economic analysis of water resources

WP 02WP 02DeliverablesDeliverables

D02.1: Identification of problem issues D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) (Summary Report)

D02.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic D02.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicatorsanalysis: issues and indicators

WP 02WP 02DeliverablesDeliverables

D02.1 - Identification of problem issues D02.1 - Identification of problem issues (public report)(public report)

UATLA summary report - UATLA summary report - September 2003September 2003

Partners inputs - Partners inputs - August 2003August 2003

Task 1 and 2 – Task 1 and 2 – April 2003April 2003

Task 3 – Task 3 – June 2003 June 2003

Task 4 – Task 4 – August 2003 (FEEM?)August 2003 (FEEM?)

WP 02WP 02Socio-economic framework and guidelinesSocio-economic framework and guidelines

D02.2 - Guidelines for the socio-economic D02.2 - Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators (restricted report)analysis: issues and indicators (restricted report)

Guidelines presentation (methodology and data requirements) - Guidelines presentation (methodology and data requirements) - Cairo’s meeting: Cairo’s meeting: January 2003January 2003

Report on methodology and data requirements (including feedback of Report on methodology and data requirements (including feedback of the Cairo’s discussion results):the Cairo’s discussion results): February 2003 February 2003

Guidelines to the group discussion and a matrix of analysis: Guidelines to the group discussion and a matrix of analysis: April 2003April 2003

Socio-economic Indicators input to the database: Socio-economic Indicators input to the database: July 2003July 2003 (?) (?)

Final deliverable report: Final deliverable report: September 2003September 2003

Problems identified by each teamProblems identified by each team

Limits and potentialities of the socio-economic analysisLimits and potentialities of the socio-economic analysis

Links to other WPLinks to other WP

Suggestions for a deeper analysisSuggestions for a deeper analysis

Comparative policy

analysis

WP 10Comparative Policy

Analysis

Data required

for the case

studies

WP 4Data Compilation

and Analysis

Quantitativ

e

and qualit

ative

indicato

rs

WP 3Analitical Tools,

Models

WP 2Socio-economic

analysis

WP 02WP 02Linkages with the other WorkPackagesLinkages with the other WorkPackages

WP 1Requirements and

constraints analysis

Key local actors identification

Definition of data and document requirements

Guidelines WP 5-9Regional Case

Studies

Case Study Results

WP 02WP 02Links with WP1Links with WP1

WP2 WP1 WP2 WP1 (February 2003)(February 2003) Definition of data and document requirementsDefinition of data and document requirements

WP1 WP2 WP1 WP2 (March 2003)(March 2003) Key local actors identificationKey local actors identification List of policies, issues and problems for each case List of policies, issues and problems for each case Identification of data constraintsIdentification of data constraints

WP 02WP 02Links with WP3Links with WP3

WP2 WP3 WP2 WP3 (September 2003)(September 2003)

Indicators for use in the quantitative analysis Indicators for use in the quantitative analysis tools (administrative level of analysis: tools (administrative level of analysis: municipality) municipality)

Inputs to build symbolic indicators (criteria) Inputs to build symbolic indicators (criteria) to be used in the policy assessmentto be used in the policy assessment

Inputs for policy scenario analysisInputs for policy scenario analysis

WP 02WP 02Links with WP4Links with WP4

WP2 WP4 WP2 WP4 (September 2003)(September 2003)

Socio-economic dataSocio-economic data Population Population

Institutional setting, key actors Institutional setting, key actors

Regulatory framework Regulatory framework

Basic economic and development indicators Basic economic and development indicators

Policy framework and development plans/strategiesPolicy framework and development plans/strategies

WP 02WP 02links with WP5-9 links with WP5-9

WP2 WP5-9WP2 WP5-9 Guidelines for socio-economic analysis – Guidelines for socio-economic analysis – January/February 2003January/February 2003

WP5-9 WP2WP5-9 WP2 Task 1 (Report on population dynamics and demographic policy Task 1 (Report on population dynamics and demographic policy

analysis) - analysis) - April 2003 April 2003

Task 2 (Report on Political and economic options adopted for the Task 2 (Report on Political and economic options adopted for the study areas) - study areas) - April 2003 April 2003

Task 3 (Report on competing water uses) - Task 3 (Report on competing water uses) - June 2003 June 2003

Task 4 (Report on Economic analysis of water resources) - Task 4 (Report on Economic analysis of water resources) - August August 20032003 (FEEM?) (FEEM?)

WP 02WP 02Links with WP10Links with WP10

WP2 WP10WP2 WP10

Contribution to comparative policy analysis Contribution to comparative policy analysis of case studies (D10.2)of case studies (D10.2)