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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Snow White
Money, Oil & PoliticsGlobal Economic Outlook Q1, 2011
Roman ScottManaging Director, Calamander Capital
Economic SpokesmanBritish Chamber of Commerce Singapore
Sponsored by
20th January 2011Theatre, Tanglin Club
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 1
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
2011
F
Advanced Economies GDP Growth(% change y-o-y)
4.0%
2.4%
2
The Canary in the Coal Mine
Singapore GDP Growth(% change y-o-y)
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Canary in the Coal Mine
-12-8-4048
121620
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Investment Spend% (y-o-y)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
No
v-08
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-09
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-10
Industrial Production% (y-o-y)
-12-606
121824
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Exports% (y-o-y)
-10-6-226
10141822
1Q-0
8
2Q-0
8
3Q-0
8
4Q-0
8
1Q-0
9
2Q-0
9
3Q-0
9
4Q-0
9
Financial Services% (y-o-y)
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Global Economy
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
F
20
11
F
Source: IMF
Annual change (%)World GDP FY 2011 Forecast
4.22% (IMF)3.3% (World Bank & HSBC)
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
OECD Leading Economic Indicators
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
No
v-0
0
No
v-0
1
No
v-0
2
No
v-0
3
No
v-0
4
No
v-0
5
No
v-06
No
v-0
7
No
v-0
8
No
v-0
9
No
v-1
0
UK US China Euro area OECD Total
Global leading indicators12-month rate of change of the trend restored Composite Leading Indicators
11.5%
2.7%1.3%-0.6%-3.6%
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6
6
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
US KPIs
UnemploymentRate
Business Spending
Corporate Earnings
GDP
Retail Sales
Business Confidence
Consumer Price Index
Inventories
+0.5% (m-o-m) Dec’10
Consumer Confidence
-0.4% (m-o-m)to 9.4% (Dec’10)
Fed Fund Rate
Manufacturing
-3.3%(m-o-m) to
Dec10(ConferenceBoard Index) 0.25%
+0.6% (m-o-m)Dec’10
led to +6.9%(y-o-y), largest
since 1999
+2.6% (q-o-q)
for Q3’10
+26% to
USD 1.64 Tn(y-o-y)
in Q3’10
+0.2% (m-o-m)Nov’10
+4.9%(m-o-m)Oct’10
+0.7% (m-o-m)
Nov’10 for manufacturing
orders
+0.7% to 57pts
(m-o-m) in Dec’10
(ISM PMI)
Leading Economic Index
+1.5%(m-o-m) in
Dec10
Current Account Deficit
+3.2% to USD 127.2 Bn
or -3.4% of GDP 2010
Q3’10
Consumer Expenditure
+3.9% (q-o-q)Q3’10
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Retail Sales
+5.4% (m-o-m)Dec’10
+5 % (m-o-m)Dec’10
+3.2% (y-o-y)Dec’10
+15% (y-o-y)Dec’10
+11.8 % (y-o-y)Dec’10
+8.4 % (y-o-y)Dec’10
+1.5 % (y-o-y)Dec’10
+10.4 % (y-o-y)Dec’10
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tech
+71% (y-o-y) to
USD 6 Bn
+48% (y-o-y) to
USD 3.4 Bn
+9% (y-o-y) to
USD 5.3 Bn
Profit Growth in Q4’10
9
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Manufacturing – Sales Growth
7.5% (y-o-y)
to 224,185 unitsin Dec’10
16% (y-o-y)
to 100,702 unitsin Dec’10
6.7% (y-o-y)
to 190,976 unitsin Dec’10
574 planes sold after cancellation
worth of USD 74 Bn in 2010
510 deliveries
USD 39.9 Bn of total revenue
530 planes sold after cancellations
worth of USD 49 Bn.
462 deliveries
61 orders worth of GBP 3.2 Bn
of its Trent 900 engines with British Airways
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Exports
9
6
-10
12
8
-3
1
-11
5 6
24
11
-18
29
16
9
4
-9
18
5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007
2008
2009
20
10
F
20
11
F
% change (y-o-y)
Export Volume Growth
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Source: US BEA
80
90
100
110
120
130
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
118%
% o
f D
isp
osa
ble
Inco
me
US Household Debt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
19
91
19
92
19
93
1994
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
2003
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
% o
f D
isp
osa
ble
Inco
me
6%
US Personal Savings Rate
US Household Debt
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 12
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Auto Industry Signals the ‘The New Normal’
9
11
13
15
17
19
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
No. of new car sales (in mil)
11.6 mil
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
No. of new car sales (in mil)
2.9 mil1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
No. of new car sales (in mil)
2 mil
0
4
8
12
16
20
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
No. of new car sales (in mil)
18 mil
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
0
50
100
150
200
250
No
v-63
No
v-64
No
v-65
No
v-66
No
v-67
No
v-68
No
v-69
No
v-70
No
v-71
No
v-72
No
v-73
No
v-74
No
v-75
No
v-76
No
v-77
No
v-78
No
v-79
No
v-80
No
v-81
No
v-82
No
v-83
No
v-84
No
v-85
No
v-86
No
v-87
No
v-88
No
v-89
No
v-90
No
v-91
No
v-92
No
v-93
No
v-94
No
v-95
No
v-96
No
v-97
No
v-98
No
v-99
No
v-00
No
v-01
No
v-02
No
v-03
No
v-04
No
v-05
No
v-06
No
v-07
No
v-08
No
v-09
No
v-10
HousingM
on
thly
Nu
mb
er o
f H
ou
sin
g U
nit
s (i
n t
ho
usa
nd
s)
21
4140
Avg: 57
Avg: 119
Avg: 126
Nov-10
Building Permits
Housing Sales
Housing Starts
14
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
US politics
15Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 15
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
3.9% (Q3’10) 0.64%
5.2% (Oct’10)7.5% (Dec’10)6.7% (Oct’10)
Un-employment
Rate
Consumer Expenditure
Investment Spending
Corporate Earnings
Industrial Production
Retail SalesManufacturi
ngConsumer Confidence
GDP:I:
CPI:C/A balance (% of GDP):Unemployment:
-0.3% (Q4’09)0.64%
1.6% (Mar’10)-1.9% (Oct’10) 10.1% (Feb’10)
1.9% (Q3’10) 1.0%
2.2% (Dec’10) -0.5% (Oct’10)9.8% (Nov’10)
+1.4%(m-o-m)Nov’10
-0.8 %(m-o-m)Nov’10
0.2% (Q3’10) 0.5%
2.3% (Nov’10)-4.6% (Oct’10)
20.6% (Nov’10)
+0.3%(q-o-q) Q3’10
+6.9% (y-o-y) Oct’10
+3.3% to
57.1pts(m-o-m) Dec’10
10.1% (m-o-m)Oct’10
-0.5%(m-o-m)Nov’10
+0.1% (q-o-q)Q3’10
1.1% (Q3’10)0.72%
1.9% (Dec’10)-3.5% (Oct’10)8.6% (Oct’10)
EU KPIs
Business Confidence
-15% to -11 ptsDec’10
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
PIGS
40
140
240
340
440
540
640
740
840
940
1040
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-0
9
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Basis points
10-year Government Bonds Spread Over Bunds
831
582
384
228
17
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
UK KPIs
UnemploymentRate
Business Spending
Corporate Earnings
GDP
Retail Sales
Business Confidence
Consumer Price Index
Inventories
+3.7% (y-o-y) or 1.0% (m-o-m)
Dec’10
Consumer Confidence
+0.1% (q-o-q) to 7.9%Dec’10
Key Policy Interest Rate
Manufacturing
+18% to 53 pts(m-o-m) Dec’10 0.5%
+0.7%(m-o-m) Dec’10
0.7% (Q4’10)
lower than 0.8% (Q3’10)
+11.6% (q-o-q)Q2’10
+ GBP 0.3 BnQ4’10
-15.7%(q-o-q)3Q’10
+11.9% (y-o-y)Q3’10
+1.4% to 58.3pts(m-o-m)Dec’10
Leading Economic Index
+19.7%(m-o-m) in
Dec10
Current Account Deficit
+85% to GBP 9.6 Bn
-2.6% of GDP 2010
(Q3’10)
Consumer Expenditure
-0.4% (q-o-q)Q4’10
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
UK Austerity
3.4
6.8
6.4
7.8
8.7
8.2
3.1
8.2
5.9
8
6.3
33.1
1.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
2010
F
20
11
F
20
12
F
20
13
F
Government Real SpendingAnnual Growth
% change (y-o-y)Health8%
Pensions8%
Welfare7%
Education6%
Remainder16%
Private Spending
55%
UK Total GDP 2010
TOTAL UK GDP 2010 USD 2,352 Bn
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
1,341 Bn
1,216 Bn
49 Mil
23 Mil 5 Mil
7 Mil
235 Mil
88 Mil
62 Mil
20 Mil
China/India
10%
GDP 2010
9.5%
GDP 2010
6.1%
GDP 2010
9.6%
GDP 2010
7%
GDP 2010
14.8%
GDP 2010
6%
GDP 2010
68 Mil
6.8%
GDP 2010
7%
GDP 2010
8%
GDP 2010
GDP 2010
1.7%
GDP 2010
AGEs Canarys Asean-3 References
Emerging Markets Asia
Population
20
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
My worry - Asian inflation…the watchlist
4.8
5.9
-0.7
3.3
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007
2008
2009
20
10
F
% change (y-o-y)
6.4
8.3
10.911.8
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2007
2008
2009
20
10
F
% change (y-o-y)
6.4
10.2
4.8
5.14
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
% change (y-o-y)
8.3
23
7.19
9.9
6
10
14
18
22
26
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
2011
F
% change (y-o-y)
2.2
5.5
-0.8
3.3
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007
2008
2009
20
10
F
% change (y-o-y)
2.1
6.6
0.6
2.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
% change (y-o-y)
0.44%
6.5%
5%
2.75%(lending 5.81%)
9%
2.25%
InflationPolicy rate
21
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan
-07
Feb
-07
Mar
-07
Ap
r-07
May
-07
Jun
-07
Jul-
07A
ug-
07Se
p-0
7O
ct-0
7N
ov-
07
De
c-0
7Ja
n-0
8Fe
b-0
8M
ar-0
8A
pr-
08M
ay-0
8Ju
n-0
8Ju
l-08
Au
g-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-0
8D
ec-
08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09A
ug-
09Se
p-0
9O
ct-0
9N
ov-
09
Dec
-09
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10A
ug-
10Se
p-1
0O
ct-1
0N
ov-
10
De
c-1
0
Oil Price
Inflation part 2……Oil
Increase in Imported Bill in 2010
USD 70 Bn
USD 72 Bn
USD 27 Bn
34 Other Rich Countries
USD 790 Bn
USD per barrel
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Oil Price: 100 USD/Barrel
20 Jan 2011
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bonds: Hasta La Vista, Baby!
0
1
2
3
4
5
3m
6m
12
m 2y
3y 5y 7y
10
y
30
y
Dec'09
Jan'11
0
1
2
3
4
5
3m
6m
12
m 2y 3y 5y
7y
10
y
30
y
0
1
2
3
4
5
3m
6m
12
m 2y 3y 5y
7y
10
y
30
y
Government Securities’ Yield Curves
Yield (%) Yield (%) Yield (%)
Maturity Period
Maturity Period
Maturity Period
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 23
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
World Bond
(Citigroup)
World(MSCI) (BSE) (SET)
(STI)(SSEA)(FTSE100)
(RTS)(NIKKEI 225)
(SPTSX)
(DJIA) (SMI) (KOSPI)
(KLSE)
(JSX)
(TAIEX) (All Ord.)
(CAC 40)
(DAX)
(BOVESPA)(FTSE Euro 100)
(CSEALL)
24
11
3
13
22
-12
9
-9
8 811
9
29
15
-11
30
22
52
38
46
20
610
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Wor
ld (M
SCI)
Wor
ld B
ond
U.S
.
Cana
da
Euro UK
Fran
ce
Ger
man
y
Swis
s
Japa
n
Braz
il
Russ
ia
Indi
a
Ch
ina
(S
SE
A)
Kore
a (K
ospi
)
Sing
apor
e
Thai
land
Mal
aysi
a (F
TSE)
Indo
nes
ia
Taiw
an
Sri L
anka
Aust
ralia
YTD (%)From 31 Dec 2009 to 12-Jan-11
Equities: performance for 2010
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan
-73
Jan
-74
Jan
-75
Jan
-76
Jan
-77
Jan
-78
Jan
-79
Jan
-80
Jan
-81
Jan
-82
Jan
-83
Jan
-84
Jan
-85
Jan
-86
Jan
-87
Jan
-88
Jan
-89
Jan
-90
Jan
-91
Jan
-92
Jan
-93
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
USD Against Major CurrenciesWeighted Average of the Foreign Exchange Values of the
USD
(Mar 1973 = 100)
Note: Nominal Major Currencies Index of USD against a basket of EUR, CAD, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, and SKR.
Calamander’s 1st warning of USD decrease at BritCham Sep’02
25
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Commodities 2010
Index(Dec09 = 100)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Dec
-09
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Ap
r-1
0
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
Dec
-10
Copper
+24%
Rubber
+69%
+74%
Palladium
Platinum
+18%
+66%
Silver
Coal
+38%
Uranium
+36%
Iron Ore
+80%
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 26
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 27
Soft Commodities 2010
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Dec
-09
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Ap
r-1
0
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
Dec
-10
Cotton
+119%
Wheat
+28%
Beef
+35%
Soya bean
+11%Pork
+20%
Index(Dec09 = 100)
Sunflower Oil
+29%
Coffee
+52%
+26%
Barley
+25%
Sugar
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 27
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
LKR 4,411Bn or USD 39.6 Bn+2.1%27.5%
USD 1.7 Bn5.2%
3.3% (Q2’09)
GDPGDP growth (Q2 ‘09)IFX ReservesCPI (end of period)Unemployment
Population Growth
Population<25 yrs
GDP Per Capita Income
0.6%20 mil
44%or 8.8 mil
USD 1,983
18.2% (of GDP) or
LKR 803 Bn
43% (of GDP)LKR 1930 Bn
Exports ImportsBudget Balance
20% (of GDP)
34.4% (of GDP)
-9.3% (of GDP)
Sri Lanka, Q2 2009
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Colombo stock exchange price index (LKR)
4
6
-2
4
6 56
87
6
3
5
6 6 5 5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
2011
F
2012
F
2013
F
2014
F
Sri Lanka annual GDP growth (%)
Gross External Debt
Gross National Savings
+86% (YTD)
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 28
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sri Lanka: Was one of the World Fastest Growth Economies Despite Conflict
14.8
10.0
9.2
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.0
6.7
6.0
3.2
4.7
10.5
8.5
6.0
3.0
3.6
3.9
7.3
5.6
3.8
- 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
Singapore
China
India
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Brazil
Hong Kong
Vietnam
Indonesia
Russia
Average GDP Growth Rates (2004 - 2009) 2010F
GDP Growth 2004-2009
29
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....And All Flying On One Engine
Western45%
Southern11%
North Western
10%
Central10%
Sabaraga-muwa 6%
Uva5%
North Central5%
Eastern5%
Northern3%
30
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
20
10
F
20
11
F
20
12
F
20
13
F
20
14
F
20
15
F
GDP Per Capita (USD)
Sri Lanka: No Longer Low Income – Well Above India and Viet Nam
GDP per capita FY 2010: USD 2,365
31
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sri Lanka, Q4 2010
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
7,500
8,500
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-10
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Colombo stock exchange price index (LKR)
+96% FY 2010
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 32
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Well Structured Economy – Better Than China and Viet Nam
Services40%
Industry 49%
Agriculture
11%
China
Services60%
Industry 28%
Agriculture
12%
Sri Lanka
Services63%
Industry 20%
Agriculture
19%
India
Total GDP FY 2010 USD 4.9 Tn USD 48 BnUSD 1.5 Tn
33
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Sri Lanka: Consumption Driven Service Sector
Transport, 18%
Domestic Trade, 18%
Import Trade, 18%
Banking & Insurance, 15%
Public Administration & Defence, 13%
Export Trade, 7%
Real Estate, Renting & Business Services, 5%
Community & Other Services, 4%
Post & Telecommunication , 3%
Hotel & Restaurants, 1%
Cargo-handling Ports and Civil Aviation, 1%
34
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sri Lanka: Investor Friendly Policies
All sectors open to FDI, equal treatment of local and foreign investors
100% foreign equity allowed, except local banks
Can repatriate royalties, franchise fees, capital, profits, dividends
Attractive tax / tariff incentives package, no capital gains
Foreign investors can own 100% title to land and buildings
Substantial reduction in customs duties and taxes (June 2010)
Trade Liberalization: EU & US, India and Pakistan FTA’s
Upgrade of Sovereign Ratings by Fitch and S&P (BBB, BB+)
35
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LKR:USD 2004-2009 Going Forward
97.0000
102.0000
107.0000
112.0000
117.0000
122.0000
127.0000
132.0000
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
regression
EIU
BMI
Citibank
JP Morgan
SCB
HSBC
JKSB
CC
LKR 112.7
36
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Sri Lanka: Infrastructure Projects of Note
~100 km
Hambantota
Ratnapura
Monaragala
Batticaloa
Amparai
MataraGalle
BoosaRuhunu
Oluvil Port
Kandy
Puttalam
Badulla
Dambulla
Anuradhapura
Trincomalee
Jaffna
Point Pedro
•Reconstruction of approximately 120,000 houses in the North and East
Colombo- MataraExpressway -128km
Colombo
Target of 17 flyovers in Colombo & Suburbs
KatunayakeColombo- Katunayake Expressway - 25km
Katunayake-AnuradhapuraExpressway - 200km
500 MW Coal Power Plant, Trincomallee
Jaffna Water Supply Scheme
Oluvil PortDevelopment
Hambantota Port Development
Galle Port Development
900 MW NoorchcholaiCoal Power Plant
Colombo PortDevelopment
Upper Kotmale Hydro Power Plant - 150 MW Hydro
Maththala International AirportDevelopment
rehabilitation of roads: 857km national highways, 1099km rural roads and 8450km of feeder roads
37
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Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Risks Remain
1. 2008 recovery prognosis remains: slow, fragile, easy money fueled, ‘jobless’, won’t return to old ‘normal’
2. Risk of serious G3 macro events remain in Eurozone - PIGS crisis part 2
3. Fiscal support, even in US, over, politically untenable
4. Risk that Fed overshoots when tightening starts –a delicate balancing act
5. Housing not out of the woods yet
6. EM risks a repeat of the 2008 inflation scare if don’t let currencies appreciate
7. US government hits statutory debt ceiling in Spring.
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 39
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
Climate change
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil702 death as of 20 Jan 2011Damaged cost: est. USD 500 Mil
Sri Lanka32 killed as of 20 Jan 2011Damaged cost: RS 50 Bn
Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, & Tasmania, Australia
20 death as of 20 Jan 2011Damaged cost: est. AUD 7 Bn
South Africa40 death as of 20 Jan 2011
Damaged cost: est. USD 51 Mil
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
alternative investments in the world’s fastest growing markets
Roman ScottManaging Director, Calamander CapitalEmail: [email protected]: www.calamandergroup.com