Snowbeltto Sunbelt - Brookings · 6/6/2005 · Sunbelt Heartland. Bush 2004 Vote by Urban-Suburban...

SnowbeltSnowbelt to Sunbeltto SunbeltThe Migration of AmericaThe Migration of America’’s Voterss Voters

William H. FreyThe Brookings Institution & University of Michigan

www.Frey-Demographer.org

State Projected Growth, 2000State Projected Growth, 2000--20302030

Projected Growth, 2000-2030

Growth 25% or more

Growth 10% to 24%Less than 10%

Source: William Frey

Projected Regional Growth, 2000Projected Regional Growth, 2000--20302030


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000-10 2010-20 2020-30

Snowbelt

Sunbelt

Electoral Vote Gains, 2000Electoral Vote Gains, 2000--20302030


Florida 9Texas 8Arizona 5California 2Nevada 2North Carolina 2Georgia 1Oregon 1Utah 1Virginia 1Washington 1

Electoral Vote Losses, 2000Electoral Vote Losses, 2000--20302030


New York -6 Iowa -1Pennsylvania -4 Kentucky -1Ohio -4 Louisiana -1Illinois -3 Missouri -1Massachusetts -2 Nebraska -1Michigan -2 New Jersey -1Alabama -1 Rhode Island -1Connecticut -1 West Virginia -1Indiana -1 Wisconsin -1

Red and Blue States, 2004Red and Blue States, 2004


Projected Red State AdvantageProjected Red State Advantage(assuming constant 2004 state victories)(assuming constant 2004 state victories)


Red Blue Advantage

2004 286 252 342012 290 248 422024 295 243 522032 303 235 68

Electoral Votes

SnowbeltSnowbelt and Sunbelt: and Sunbelt: Electoral College ChangesElectoral College Changes

Northeast and MidwestSouth and West

Red and Blue State Electoral Vote ChangesRed and Blue State Electoral Vote ChangesSnowbeltSnowbelt and Sunbelt, 2004and Sunbelt, 2004--20302030


2004 ChangeSnowbelt Red 66 -8 Blue 159 -21

Sunbelt Red 220 25 Blue 93 4

Source: William. Frey

Melting Pot, New Sunbelt, and Heartland States

New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States

Red and Blue Electoral VotesRed and Blue Electoral VotesThree America'sThree America's


2004 ChangeHeartland Red 122 -12 Blue 105 -11

New Sunbelt Red 95 12 Blue 21 2

Melting Pot Red 69 17 Blue 126 -8

Demographic Components, 2000Demographic Components, 2000--20042004(Rates per 1000)(Rates per 1000)


16

8

-6

20

-5

27

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

Melting Pot States: 2000Melting Pot States: 2000--04 Components04 Components


3328 25

-12

-39

7

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

California New York Texas

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

New Sunbelt: 2000New Sunbelt: 2000--04 Components04 Components


26

1815

51

20 19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Arizona Georgia North Carolina

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

Florida: 2000Florida: 2000--04 Components04 Components


26

52

24

48

-5

72

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Florida Miami Orlando

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

Heartland: 2000Heartland: 2000--04 Components04 Components


10

5

11

-11 -11

-17-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Michigan Ohio Kansas

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

Migrant Shares from California

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Arizona

Colorado

Idaho

Nevada

Washington

Oregon

Utah

Share

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

Race Composition of Regions

55%

11%

7%

2%

25%

72%

14%

3%

2% 9%

White Black Asian Other Hispanic

Source: William Frey,

80%

12%2%

2% 4%

New Sunbelt HeartlandMelting Pot

KeyBelow 12.5%12.5% - 25.0%Above 25.0%

Hispanic Concentration

Sourcc: William Frey

KeyBelow 12.6%12.6% - 25.0%Above 25.0%

Black Concentration


Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990--20032003


-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

California New York

White BlackAsianHispanic

New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990--20032003


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Nevada Georgia

White BlackAsianHispanic

2000-10 Growth: Under Age 35


GT 7%

1% - 7%

LT 1%

Growth by Age, 2000-10

Source: William Frey,

-10

010

2030

40

5060

70

California Nevada Michigan

Under 2525-4445-6465+

Urban Suburban Growth: 2000Urban Suburban Growth: 2000--0404


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

MajorMetro Core

MajorMetro

Periphery

LargeMetro

MediumMetro

SmallMetro

Non Metro

MeltingPotNewSunbeltHeartland

Bush 2004 Vote by UrbanBush 2004 Vote by Urban--SuburbanSuburban


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Major MetroCore

Major MetroPeriphery

Large Metro MediumMetro

Small Metro Non Metro

Fastest Growing Counties, 2000Fastest Growing Counties, 2000--0404


Growth County Inside Metro Area

1 41.0 Loudoun Co, VA Washington DC2 38.5 Flagler Co. FL Daytona Beach3 35.4 Douglas Co, CO Denver4 35.2 Rockwall Co, TX Dallas5 34.0 Forsyth Co, GA Atlanta6 33.6 Henry Co, GA Atlanta7 33.0 Kendall Co, IL Chicago8 31.5 Newton Co, GA Atlanta9 30.2 Lincoln Co, SD Sioux Falls, SD

10 29.7 Paulding Co, GA Atlanta

Red, Blue and Purple States, 2004Red, Blue and Purple States, 2004


RedBluePurple

Red, Blue and Purple State Electoral Votes, Red, Blue and Purple State Electoral Votes, 20042004


0

20

40

60

80

100

120


RED BLUEPURPLE

Red, Blue, and Purple Counties, 2004Red, Blue, and Purple Counties, 2004

RedBluePurple


Population in Red, Blue and Purple Population in Red, Blue and Purple Counties, 2004Counties, 2004


New Sunbelt

54%

18%

28%

Heartland

27%

27% 46%

RED BLUEPURPLE

Melting Pot

36%

38%

26%

Percent Population Change, 2000Percent Population Change, 2000--0404


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


RED BLUEPURPLE

Urban Suburban ProfilesUrban Suburban Profiles


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple


Small/NonMetro

Suburb/MedMetro

Major MetroCore

New Sunbelt: 2000New Sunbelt: 2000--04 Components04 Components


13

2318

39

-35

22

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

RED BLUE PURPLE

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

Heartland: 2000Heartland: 2000--04 Components04 Components


6

14

710

-31

-3

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

RED BLUE PURPLE

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

Race ProfilesRace Profiles


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Red

Blu

e

Pur

ple

Red

Blu

e

Pur

ple

Red

Blu

e

Pur

ple


Hispanic

Asia/Othr

Black

White

New Sunbelt New Sunbelt SubregionsSubregions: Race Profiles: Race Profiles


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Red

Blu

e

Pur

ple

Red

Blu

e

Pur

ple

Red

Blu

e

Pur

ple

Southwest Northwest South

Hispanic

Asia/Othr

Black

White

New Sunbelt Race Growth 2000New Sunbelt Race Growth 2000--0404


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Red Blue Purple

WhiteBlackAsianHispanic

US: Race Profile Comparisons, 2004US: Race Profile Comparisons, 2004


68%

White Black Hispanic Asian Other

Total Voters

79%

Hispanics: 2004 Total Hispanics: 2004 Total vsvs Voter Shares Voter Shares

4537

3329

23 20 19

34

2216

12 10 9 10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

NewMexico

Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida

TotalVoters


Population in Red, Blue and Purple Population in Red, Blue and Purple Counties, 2004Counties, 2004


California

31%

50%

19%

RED BLUEPURPLE

Florida

37%

20%

43%

Florida: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Florida: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple CosCos

RedBluePurple


Florida: 2000Florida: 2000--04 Components04 Components


11

3236

80

30 28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

RED BLUE PURPLE

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

California: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Cos.California: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Cos.

RedBluePurple


California: 2000California: 2000--04 Components04 Components


25

41

23

41

-49

5

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

RED BLUE PURPLE

Immigraton

DomesticMigration

Percent Voting for Bush: 2000 Percent Voting for Bush: 2000 vsvs 20042004


22.6

53.649.0

27.7

51.1 51.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Queens, NY Wake Co. NC Cahoun Co. MI

2000

2004

Demographic Components, 2000Demographic Components, 2000--0404


64

29

5

-98

55

-9

27

47

11

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Queens, NY Wake Co. NC Cahoun Co. MI

Immigraton

DomesticMigrationNaturalIncrease

RaceRace--Ethnic ProfilesEthnic Profiles


Wake Co. NC

67%

20%

6%

7%

Queens, NY

32%

20%

22%

26% Cahoun Co. MI

82%

4%

3%

11%

WhiteBlackAsia/OthrHispanic

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Snowbeltto Sunbelt - Brookings · 6/6/2005 · Sunbelt Heartland. Bush 2004 Vote by Urban-Suburban...

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