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Social Consequences of the Changing Landscape for Mixed Livestock
Production Systems
International Conference on‘Livestock in a Changing Landscape’Bangkok, Thailand 28 November 2006
A. Costales, U. Pica-Ciamarra & J. OttePro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative
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Outline
• The Changing landscape
• Mixed Crop-livestock Production Systems
• Stylized Development Paths & Case Studies
• Summary & conclusions
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The Changing Landscape
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Interlocking ‘Drivers’ of Change
• Growing & changing demand for meat & milk products in DCs
• New technologies in production and processing
• National and international market liberalization and integration
The
Cha
ngin
g La
ndsc
ape
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Opportunities and Threats
• Expanding markets –opportunities for livestock producers
• Demanding markets (product quality and food safety) – exclusion of some producers from market (and sector!)
The
Cha
ngin
g La
ndsc
ape
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Responses to the Changing Landscape
Initial conditions:1. Agricultural / livestock
sector in the economy 2. Resource endowments
(land, labour, capital) 3. Economic-institutional
framework
The
Cha
ngin
g La
ndsc
ape
Highly differentiated
Food staples + export cropsFood staplesOutput mix
ImportantNot importantNot importantScale economies
InternationalNational / DomesticSubsistenceMarket
orientation
LowModerateHighShare of labour in
agriculture
LowModerateHighShare of
agriculture in GDP
Globalizing Agriculture
Modernizing Agriculture
Traditional Agriculture
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Responses to the Changing LandscapeTh
e C
hang
ing
Land
scap
e Production systems:1. Extensive production
systems2. Mixed crop- livestock
production systems3. Intensive production
systems
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Responses to the Changing LandscapeTh
e C
hang
ing
Land
scap
e Production systems:1. Extensive production
systems2. Mixed crop- livestock
production systems 3. Intensive production
systems
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Mixed Crop- LivestockProduction Systems
Crop-Livestock Farms
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Characteristics
• Predominantly small farms• Livestock contribute to
! income! food! draught! savings! insurance! social status
• (Informal) traders• Processors / wholesalers /
retailersMix
ed C
rop-
lives
tock
Pro
duct
ion
Sys
tem
s
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Predominance of Small Farms
100456.1Total
3.314.8>10
3.013.85-10
8.840.32-5
11.753.31-2
73.2334.0<1
Prop’n of farms w/n class
(%)
No. of farms w/n class
(mio)
Farm size class(ha) Remark: variations of
‘average’ farm size:! SSA: 1.6 ha.! Asia: 1.6 ha.
" China, Bangladesh: <1/2 ha
! LAC: 67 ha.
Source: Von Braun, 2005Mix
ed C
rop-
lives
tock
Pro
duct
ion
Sys
tem
s
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Mixed Farms and Livestock Production
Mixed farms contribution to total livestock output (%) –world regions
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
milk milk milk milk pig pig
Kenya Ethiopia India Pakistan Vietnam Philippines
Mix
ed C
rop-
lives
tock
Pro
duct
ion
Sys
tem
s
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Milk Ruminantmeat
Pig &Poultry
Eggs
SSANENAS&SEALACOECD
Small mixed farms contribution to total livestock output (%) –selected countries
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Employment & Market Share (Milk)M
ixed
Cro
p-liv
esto
ck P
rodu
ctio
n S
yste
ms
Employed persons /1000 litre of milk output - small (informal) / large
(formal) ratio
Share (% out of total) of informal employment
and marketed milk
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
Small-to-Large farmemployment
Informal-to-formal chainemployment
IndiaPakistanKenyaEthiopia
n.a
0
25
50
75
100
Share ofemployment (%)
Share of marketed milk (%)
IndiaPakistanKenyaEthiopiaTanzaniaBangladesh
n.a.
n.a.
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Impact of the ChangingLandscape on Mixed Systems
Three Stylized Pathwaysof Livestock Sector Development
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‘Stylized’ Development PathwaysLi
vest
ock
Sec
tor D
evel
opm
ent P
athw
ays
1. Positive, equitable livestock development path
2. Livestock sector stagnation / involution
3. Positive but in-equitable development path
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1. Positive & Equitable Path
• Growth leads to broad-based rural production and rural-to-urban processing and distribution systems! consumption linkages! production linkages
• Decentralized rural industrialization, exploiting rural labour and entrepreneurial skills
Case study: India dairy
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Dairyfarms
Milchanimalsper farm
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
CrossbredBuffaloLocal
Live
stoc
k S
ecto
r Dev
elop
men
t Pat
hway
s
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2. Stagnation / Involution
• Rural production systems are disconnected from growing markets! weak / no production
linkages! weak / no consumption
linkages• Anti-agriculture ‘biased
policies’! macroeconomic! sector policies! infrastructural
Case study: Zambia dairy
5
6
7
8
9
10
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Milk per capita consumptionurban population (mio)
urba
n po
pula
tion,
mill
ion
per c
apita
milk
con
sum
ptio
n (k
g/ye
ar)
0
25
50
75
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
tons
(.00
0)
Milk productionMilk net imports
Live
stoc
k S
ecto
r Dev
elop
men
t Pat
hway
s
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3. Positive but Inequitable Path
• Small modern sector benefiting from LCL! production linkages! concentration of
production! food safety/quality
• Large traditional sector excluded from benefits of LCL! weak production linkages! consumption linkages! at the extreme, forced out
of the sector
1990
66.3
33.7
FormalInformal
Case study: Brazil dairy
1998
56.5
43.5FormalInformal
Share of formal/informal marketed milk
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
tons
(.00
0)
Milk productionMilk trade
Live
stoc
k S
ecto
r Dev
elop
men
t Pat
hway
s
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SummaryD
river
s1. Positive pathway
2. Stagnation / involution
3. Inequitable pathway
Large farms
Small farms
Formal supply chain
Informal supply chain
Urban consumers
Rural consumers
Small subsistence farms
Informal supply chain
Rural consumers
Large farms
Small farms
Formal supply chain
Urban consumers
Live
stoc
k S
ecto
r Dev
elop
men
t Pat
hway
s
out of business
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Summary & Conclusions
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Summary
• (Small) Mixed farms are and will remain pervasive
• (Small) Mixed farms significantly contribute to livestock output & rural employment
• LCL different impacts on mixed farms possible:! positive, equitable
development path! stagnation / involution! positive but inequitable
development path
Sum
mar
y &
Con
clus
ions
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Conclusions
• Small mixed farms can be competitive
• Large & small farms / supply chains can co-exist
• Smallholder based (livestock) industrialization is possible
• Equity & growth are not mutually
exclusive
• ‘Equitable’ livestock technical & institutional policiesS
umm
ary
& C
oncl
usio
ns
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References & Further Reading
Staal, S.J., A.N. Pratt, and M.Jabbar. (2006). A Comparison of Dairy Policies and Development in South Asia and East Africa. Country Case Studies from South Asia and East Africa – Kenya, Ethiopia, Pakistan and India. ILRI, Nairobi. PPLPI Working Paper (forthcoming), FAO, Rome.
Haggblade, S., P. Hazell and T. Reardon. (2005). The Rural Non-Farm Economy: Pathway Out of Poverty or Pathway In?“.IFPRI, ODI and Imperial College London. Proceedings from the Research Workshop on The Future of Small Farms, June 26-29, 2005, Withersdane Conference Centre, Wye, UK.
Nagayets, O. (2005). Small Farms: Current Status and Key Trends. IFPRI, ODI and Imperial College London. Proceedings from the Research Workshop on The Future of Small Farms, June 26-29, 2005, Withersdane Conference Centre, Wye, UK.
For more information please visit the PPLPI website:www.fao.org/ag/pplpi.html www.fao.org/ag/againfo/projects/en/pplpi/publications.html
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Thank you!