Social Data is Predictive! Now What?

Rob Key

CEO, Converseon

@robkey

A Legacy of Top Data Quality, Research and Consulting

Award winning Social Consultancy working exclusively

in social media since 2001

Widely recognized for “best data quality” from leading

analysts via its award-winning proprietary Convey

technology (Gartner, Forrester).

Converseon provides the tools, data, models,

research, consulting to help drive actionable social

intelligence throughout organizations.

“Strong Performer’ in The Forrester Wave™:

Enterprise Social Listening Platforms Q1 2014. Top

overall score (5 out of 5) for consulting and research,

as well as data processing and sentiment analysis

(tied).

Dataweek Top Innovator in Social Data Mining for its

ability to “provide near human level precision at the

speed and scale that only software can achieve.”

Copyright Converseon 2014

Though social and digital media are rapidly

transforming marketing and new tools

emerge daily, in most firms the organization

of the function hasn't changed in 40 years.

How should marketers revamp…to meet

the new realities?

- The Ultimate Marketing Machine

by Marc de Swaan Arons, Frank van den

Driest, Keith Weed

Source: Harvard Business Review

Publication Date: Jul 01, 2014.

Social is a Game Changer

“

”

Listening 1.0: Who Offers a Tool?

Ascent Labs, Inc. Attensity Attentio Backtype Betaworks Bivings Group Biz360 Inc. Brands Eye Brandtology Brandwatch BuzzGain Buzzient BuzzLogic BuzzNumbers BuzzStream Cierzo Development S.L Cision Collecta Collective Intellect Converseon Conversition CoTweet Crimson Hexagon Crowd Favorite CustomScoop Digimind DNA13 Dow Jones eCairn e-CBD Echometrix Effyis Emerge Technology Group Expert System Facebook Filtrbox Flaptor Frank Westphal Glam Media Google Hubspot Icerocket iMooty Infegy Inifinimedia Insttant Inuda Innovations Iterasi JamIQ JD Power Kaleidico Klout Linkfluence ListenLogic Macranet Market Sentinel MediaBadger MediaMiser Medimix Mindlab Solutions GmbH Monitter Moreover Technologies mReplay MyFrontSteps Networked Insights New Media Strategies Nielsen Now Metrix Onalytica OneRiot Overdrive Interactive Overtone Pidgin Technologies PR Newswire Radian6 Raven Rees Bradley Hepburn Ltd RepuMetrix Reputation Defender ReputationHQ Samepoint ScoutLabs Sensidea Social Mention SocialMetrix Spiral16 Sports Media Challenge StatsIT StreamWall SWIX Synthesio Sysomos Tealium Technorati Techrigy The Search Monitor ThoughtBuzz TipTop Technologies TNS Cymfony TraceBuzz Trackur LLC. Twazzup TweetBeep Tweetlytics Twitter Twitter Analyzer uberVU Viralheat Visible Measures Visible Technologies Vocus, Inc. Web Analytics Demystified White Noise Inc. Who's Talkin Xerocity Design Group YackTrack … and more

Source: http://wiki.kenburbary.com/social-meda-monitoring-wiki

But Most Of Them Are The Same

Enter your keyword or boolean query into the tool, it searches its list of feeds and then you generally get back charts and tables showing:

1. Volume (of you, your competitors, your category)

2. Venues/Authors

3. General topics

4. Automated influence

5. Basic sentiment

That seems pretty easy, right?

It can be, if all you want to really know is what are people saying about be right now?

Dirty Secret of Most Social Data

6

Current State:

Imprecise –

average sentiment

accuracy is 60%

Analyst bias

Data quality remains an issue. When asked about their satisfaction with general data quality, 74% of respondents

reported positive results. But when we dug deeper and asked about the specifics of the data, many changed their

tunes. In fact, the five responses showing the most dissatisfaction all centered on data: the ability to weed out spam;

the accuracy of the tool’s automated sentiment analysis; influencer identification tools; multilingual and international

capabilities; and the tool’s integration capabilities. These data challenges make a direct call to CI teams to get

involved and bring their past data management experience to the table.

– Forrester Research

“

”

No sample frame

“One size fits all”

“Same old metrics”

High irrelevancy

Don’t know who is speaking

“Garbage in, garbage out”

7

The truth is that for too long, much of social data has been a “coin flip”

Greater insights must begin with better data

Bad Data = False Conclusions

Recently, Researchers at CMU and McGill Recently recognized the issue

9

Far from being

unfixable, however,

miscalculations in

social-media analyses

can already be fixed

using methods

developed to fix similar

problems in studies in

epidemiology, statistics

and machine learning.

- ComputerWorld

But they also recognized the solution

“

”

Yet Many Market Researchers Are Relying on these Monitoring Tools for Insights

The Next Generation: Precise, Meaningful and Predictive

12

1. Improve Precision, Relevancy and Recall (and Set Standards)

Custom enrichment and

tuning to the brand / product

Custom classifiers

Standard classifiers

2. Move Away From Booleans

13

Machine learning

Custom Classifier

raised relevancy to

85% in less than an

hour

The best boolean query using a leading social monitoring

platform achieved only 15% relevancy

3. Know Who’s Talking

1

• Compiles a comprehensive view of an individual’s

digital footprint across online personas

• Analyzes all public content that an individual has

posted via social media channels

• Understands the type of conversations a particular

person is having publicly online

• Identifies the public venues where an individual

engages

• Understands the interests and life events of customers

and prospects, driving more effective engagement

• Maps network connections

• Helps sampling frame by matching social media

profiles to known populations from customer lists

Build robust views of your audience

by stitching open social data to client

operational data (e.g. customer

databases) as well as fans /

followers of owned social pages

Dissects & classifies your

audience(s) across demographic,

psychographic, sentiment & intent to

identify and extend vital personas

Turns audience and topic data into

prescriptive messages to activate

audiences through more targeted

engagement, offers & services

IDENTIFY SEGMENT TARGET

Who is my audience? What are their interests? How do I engage them?

Our technology also automates the collection / analysis of social

profile data to help activate high-value segments

1

4. Build and Apply Custom Classifiers

Fact / Opinion Product Application Consumer Intent

Brand Personality Product Adoption Brand Champions

Purchase Stage

Sentiment

Demand Gen Cycle

5. Embrace Emotion

11% 14% 13%19%

54%35%

14%22%

41%

14%

22% 42%42%

27%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Problem Recognition Information Search Competitive Evaluation Purchase Decision Post- Purchase

Fear

Distraction

Apprehension

Pensiveness

Acceptance

Trust

Serenity

Surprise

Interest

Sadness

Annoyance

Disgust

Anger

Anticipation

Joy

New classifiers unlock deeper, more

actionable insights such as those

Based on Plutchik’s Wheel of Emotion

1

ConveyAPI via Converseon

Knowledge

-based

Resources

Machine

Learning

SystemTest

Data

Training

Data

• Semi Supervision: Keeps “humans in the loop” for continuous training

• Customizable: Trains to domain and brands (“small” may be good for selling smartphones, bad for hotel rooms)

• Accurate: Close approximation of human performance at scale (humans that agree with each other) – generally 90-95%

• Scalable: Now allows the accuracy of human coding at large scale and speed

• Future proof: Continually evolves as language evolves

• Custom Classifiers: Enables unlimited number of custom classifiers (intent, purchase phase, etc.)

• High Relevancy and Recall: Isolates key data sets rapidly and at most detailed level.

Dataweek Top Innovator in Social Data Mining.

Proven and validated predictive capabilities

Social Data is Now Predictive: Example 1

Converseon, in partnership with Professor Wendy

Moe and David Schweidel, conducted analysis of

social conversation versus offline brand tracking

Simple average sentiment scoring using regression

analysis showed almost no correlation (.002)

But after cleansing the conversation of offers,

advertising and other clutter, and applying weighting

to the conversation based on influencer and venue,

the researchers were able to find a strong correlation

of .604

Example 2: WOMMA Study

• ,

Conducted by Analytic PartnersIn partnership with Converseon

And Keller Fay

We are at the beginning of a new era

2

Characteristics

Limited Complexity

Free tools

Experimental

People working in

their spare time

“Dictionary Based”

Easy to understand

Difficult to expand to different

languages

Directional

Declarative

Heuristic

Qualitative

Siloed

Higher precision

Embraces language

evolution

Domain specific

Trainable

Adaptable

Customizable

Quantitative/Predictive

Integrated

Modeled

Enterprise

Business Intelligence

Marketing Mix Modeling

Brand Tracking

Product Development, etc.

ExperimentalBusiness Value

“Rules Based” NLP + Machine Learning

Reactive/Limited

Crisis Comm

PR

Campaign tracking

Precision

Recall

Relevancy

Word spotting

2015

Predictive & Quantitative

Reactive & Qualitative

Business Value

Where we Can Now Mainstream Social Data

Campaign Planning/Performance, Unmet Needs,

Segmentation, Outliers, etc

Brand Tracking Innovation

Marketing Mixed Modeling

Advanced

Enrichment

Parting Thoughts

• New technologies and models are creating breakthrough results

• It’s the big picture but also the small (people) level

• Leading brands are indeed beginning to truly mainstream this data across the organization, globally

• It’s important to seek a “single truth”

• Ensure you understand the quality of your data – precision, recall and relevancy (as well as ability to customize)

• And understand how people, rather than researchers, articulate benefit and performance theme

• Assuming you find the same positioning picture coming from social media as from attribute ratings, cut your tracker expense by eliminating continuous tracking of attributes.

• Integrate this data both broadly and specifically

How Can You Access?

2

• If you have an application in need of social data, it is available through

a REST API

• If you have a basic listening tool and want to do additional processing

on the data, a simple-to-use “Conversus” app is available (see booth

for demo)

• If you use Brandwatch, a premium version is now available with the

ConveyAPI enhanced filtering capabilities

• If you are interested in marketing mixed modeling, we can plug data

into your model or make the WOMMA model available (in partnership

with Keller Fay and Analytics Partners)

• If you want to integrate more deeply into other applications, such as

brand tracking, our consulting and research group is available to assist

Thank You!

rkey@converseon.com

@robkey