Social Media & Rebel Group Communication Strategies
Cyanne E. Loyle Indiana University & PRIO
Samuel E. Bestvater The Pennsylvania State University
Peace Science Society International Meeting9 November 2018
What role does social media play in the communication strategy of modern rebel organizations?
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Civil Wars and Web 2.0• The social internet is changing how civil wars are
fought and progress (Walter 2017)• Empowers rebel groups with low capacity• Incentivizes rebel groups to frame objectives in global
terms• Provides rebel groups with new sources of financing and
support
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Foundational Questions
• What factors promote rebel social media adoption?
• What messages do groups communicate?
• Who is the audience for these messages?
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Rebel Twitter Dataset
• UCDP Armed Conflict Dataset (2006-2017)• 155 rebel organizations engaged in 477 conflict episodes
• 55 Organizations with active Twitter accounts• “Official Accounts”• Does not include leader accounts, group members, or supporters
• 269,302 tweets and accompanying metadata
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Why look at Twitter data?
• Platform popularity
• Publicly accessible messages
• Limited-length format
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Data Challenges & Limitations
• Alternate Platforms
• Banned/Deleted Accounts• Taliban, al Qaeda, etc.
• Official vs. decentralized supporter accounts
• Limited timeframe of about 10 years• (Twitter launched in 2006, and widespread adoption began in 2008)
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What factors promote rebel socialmedia adoption?
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0
10
20
30
40
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0.3
0.4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Num
ber o
f Gro
ups
with
Twi
tter P
rese
nce
Proportion of All Active Groups with Twitter Presence
Proportion Total Count
Twitter Adoption Over Time
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• Rebel Twitter adoption has increased steadily over the past 10 years
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Intensity: Major
Conflict Duration
Region: Americas
Region: Africa
Region: Asia
Region: Middle East
Secessionist
−5.0 −2.5 0.0 2.5Coefficient Estimate
Predicting Rebel Twitter Adoption
10(Selected covariates displayed)
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What messages do rebel organizations communicate over social media?
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LPROLF
UFDDRCSS
UBAKCP
SLM/A − MMForces of Paul Joseph Mukungubila
NSCN−KSPLM/A In Opposition
PLARED−TABARA
MNDAABaloch Ittehad
JEMSendero Luminoso
HaYSSDM/A − Cobra Faction
ForebuFLEC−FAC
NTCLTTEKNUBLA
al−Mahdi ArmyCMA
Forces of the House of RepresentativesFDLRONLF
AnsarallahSDF
Chechen Republic of IchkeriaRepublic of Nagorno−Karabakh
M23PYD
Republic of South SudanBLF
SPLM/A−NorthSRFKIO
BRACPN−M
Forces of HadiCPP
Lashkar−e−IslamELNDPR
HamasMNLF − NM
MILFKDPI
FARCFatah
0 20000 40000 60000total tweets
Distribution of Twitter Post Activity
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• Twitter post frequency is highly skewed, with a few groups posting much more than most
A Typology of Rebel Tweet Content
• Mobilization
• Operations
• Self-Promotion
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A Typology of Rebel Tweet Content
• Mobilization• Raise Funds• Mobilize existing support• Recruit new support
• Operations• Report on conflict/group
operations• Call for peace• Discuss governance• Engage in diplomacy
• Self-Promotion• Express grievances• Invoke support• Proclaim ideology• Express solidarity• Justify actions
• Other
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Mobilization
@BRP_MediaCell; Baloch Republican Army
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Self-Promotion
@FARC_EPeace; Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
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Operations
@dnrpress; Donetsk People’s Republic
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• Most rebel tweets contain either self-promotion or operations content
• Instances of Twitter being used to directly call for mobilization are rare
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
Mobilization Self−Promotion Operations Other
tota
l twe
ets
Distribution of Tweet Content Classifications
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USINTERNATIONAL
AMERICAUN
HUMAN RIGHTS
EU
EUROPESECURITY COUNCIL
GENEVABAN
USAINTL
TREATY
ICC
HAGUE
ICRC
CHEMICAL WEAPONS
UNSCUNHCR
• We code tweets as having an international messaging frame if they reference world powers, international institutions, or international norms
• International messaging occurs in ~6% of all tweets
0.0
0.1
0.2
Proportion of Tweets with International Frame
International Messaging
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log(Number of Followers)
log(Number of Tweets)
Primary Language: English
Years on Twitter
Prop. International Followers
Battle Deaths (1000s)
Secessionist
−0.06 −0.04 −0.02 0.00 0.02
Mobilization
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●
−0.4 −0.2 0.0
Self Promotion
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−0.2−0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Operations
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●
●
●
●
●
●
−0.050.00 0.05 0.10
International Frame
20(Selected covariates displayed)
Who is the audience for these messages?
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glis
h
Fren
ch
Arab
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Span
ish
Taga
log
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sian
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man
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ish
Nep
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ric
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alan
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ish
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ish
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e
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aini
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unts
Usi
ng L
angu
age
Primary Language Secondary Language
Primary and Secondary Acount Languages
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• Most groups tweet in English as either a primary or secondary language
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Domestic International
Prop
ortio
n of
Acc
ount
Fol
lowe
rsRebel Twitter Follower Locations
23! = −5.202, df = 99.677, ( < 0.001
• Rebel groups’ Twitter followers are more likely to report their location as outside of the country the group operates in
Who is the audience for these messages?
• Most groups tweet in English as either a primary or secondary language• Rebel groups tend to have more international than domestic followers• We find no evidence that groups with more international followers are more
likely to employ international frames in their tweets• Groups that primarily tweet in English are more likely to tweet about operations
and employ an international frame
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Questions for future research
• Do rebel organizations know the domestic/international breakdown of theirsocial media followers?
• How are domestic followers distributed within each country? Are these rebel groups’ constituencies?
• Is it common for rebel organizations to share the same followers? Do these connections cluster on ideology?
Civil Wars and Web 2.0• Empowers rebel groups with low capacity• Higher-capacity groups seem more likely to adopt social
media• Incentivizes rebel groups to frame objectives in
global terms• More international followers than domestic• International messaging is rare, but more common for
groups that tweet primarily in English• Provides rebel groups with new sources of
financing and support• Little evidence of Twitter being used directly for rebel
fundraising and mobilization
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Questions, thoughts, or suggestions?
Cyanne E. Loyle Indiana University & PRIO
Samuel E. Bestvater The Pennsylvania State University
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All Groups Groups using Twitter
Rebel Twitter Adoption by Region
Groups Using Twitter5Europe
All Active Groups
8Middle East20Asia19Africa3Americas
102448694
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r = −0.01
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2 0.4 0.6Proportion of International Followers
Prop
ortio
n of
Twe
ets
with
Inte
rnat
iona
l Fra
me
International Messaging by International Followers
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HaY
BLF
Chechen Republic of Ichkeria
FLEC−FAC
Forebu
Forces of the House of Representatives
LTTE
MILF
PLA
CMA/ MLNA
ARS/UIC
NTC
OLF
RED−TABARA
Republic of South Sudan
UBA
UFDD
ETIM
KCP
MNDAA
Republic of Nagorno−Karabakh
MNLF − HM
NSCN−K
Baloch Ittehad
BRA
Fatah
al−Mahdi Army
CPN−M
BLA
ELN
PYD
Hamas
FDLR
Lashkar−e−Islam JEM
United Armed Forces of NovorossiyaSendero Luminoso/ PCP
RCSS
SDF
SLM/A − MM
SPLM/A In Opposition
Hezbollah
Ansarallah
DPR
Maidan
KNU
M23
CPI−MaoistCPP/ PRWC
FARC
ONLF
KDPI
SRF
Rebel Twitter: Follow Network
Links are directed, and represent follow/friend relationships between accounts
What factors promote rebel socialmedia adoption?• Rebel Twitter use has increased steadily over the past decade
• 35% of the rebel organizations active since 2006 maintain official Twitter accounts
• Secessionist groups are more likely to use Twitter than groups making claims onan existing government
• Rebel groups in Europe, the Americas, and Africa are more likely to use Twitterthan those in Asia or the Middle East
• Rebel groups engaged in conflicts with longer durations are more likely to use Twitter
• Rebel groups engaged in conflicts with over 1000 battle-related deaths per year are more likely to use Twitter.
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What messages do groups communicate?• Twitter post frequency is highly skewed• Most rebel tweets contain either self-promotion or operations content• Instances of Twitter being used to directly call for mobilization are rare• International messaging occurs in ~6% of all tweets, though specific groups can
vary widely• Secessionist groups are more likely to tweet about self-promotion and also are
more likely to employ an international frame• Groups involved in conflicts with higher numbers of battle-related deaths are
more likely to tweet about operations• Groups that have been on Twitter for longer discuss their operations less
frequently• Groups with more followers are more likely to discuss operations and are less
likely to discuss self-promotion
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