Social Models of the New East European

Capitalismsby

Pál TAMAS[Hungarian Academy of

Sciences]

Agriculture regionsIndustry regionsBasic service regionsBusiness service regionsCapital cities

Regional Clusters

Growth of gross domestic product:

Wider Europe% annual change, 2006 and 2006-2020

forecasts

1.1

2.31.5

2.8

4.15.2 4.85.2

7.36.8

6.05.8

8.9

7.4

6.1

3.2

6.86

9.6

12.1

7.1 7

2.3

4.96.1

4.6

6.5

5.6 5.2

2.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2003 2004 2005 2006 2006-2015

EU-15 NMS-10 Bu,Ro,Cr Turkey SEE-5 Ukraine

wiiw

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Employment GDP Employment GDP

Employment and GDP growth 1995 = 100

EU-15 NMS-10

4

8

12

16

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

CZ HU PL SK SI BG RO

Unemployment rates 2000-2007

LFS, %, annual average

Source: wiiw Database

Stylized U-shaped pattern of employment growth in NMs

Employment levels

TimeStrong presence of sectors with declining output shares and strong productivity catching-up

Increasing weight of sectors with strong output growth and lower productivity catching-up

Aggregate GDP growth / catching-up and convergence in output structures (with more advanced economies)

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Agriculture, forestry,fishing

Industry total Trade, hotels,restaurants

Finance and businessserv.

Value added Productivity Employment

Growth by sectors, 1995-2005 in % p.a.NMS-7

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Agriculture, forestry,fishing

Industry total Trade, hotels,resaurants

Finance and businessserv.

Poland

Employment by educational categories

1992-2005

405060708090

100110120130140

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Hungary:(Index: 1992 = 100)

406080

100120140160180

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Poland:(Index: 1992 = 100)

40

60

80

100

120

140

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Czech Republic:(Index: 1993 = 100)

Primary educationSecondary educationTertiary educationTotal employment

2005

Skill shifts – between and within components in low-, medium- and

high-skill sectors,1999-2005

-1

0

1

2

3

4

L M H L M H L M H L M H

between within total skill shift

Source: wiiw

CZ HU SI SK

L=low-skill sectors, M=medium-skill sectors, H=high-skill sectors

High education