SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
SocialProtec,onFromProtec,ontoProduc,on
SynergiesbetweenSocialProtec,onandAgriculture:Whatistheevidencesofar?
SilvioDaidone
MasterCourseinPublicPolicy&HumanDevelopmentMaastricht,March29,2017
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Background• Aroundtheworld,1Bpoorpeopleand780Mhungry• ConcentratedinSSA,livinginruralareas,theirlivelihoodsdependinglargelyonagriculture• CoordinatedandcoherentagriculturalandsocialprotecAonpoliciesandprogramstobreaktheintergeneraAonaltransmissionofpoverty• Aginterven,onsaddresssomeoftheconstraintslimiAngaccesstonaturalresources,producAveinputs,financialandadvisoryservicesandmarkets• SPprovidesliquiditytoinvestmoreAmeandresourcesinag,increaseparAcipaAoninsocialnetworksandbeHermanagerisks
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Whatiscoherence?• TheFrameworkforAnalysisandAcAon(FAA)inGavrilovicetal.(2016)definescoherenceas:
“asystema(cpromo(onofcomplementaryandconsistentpoliciesandprogramsacrosssectors,therebycrea(ngsynergiestocombatruralpovertyandfoodinsecuritymoreeffec(vely”• Coherencetoavoid/minimizeconflicAnginteracAonsbetweenpolicies/programs• Coherencecanbepursuedhorizontally(acrossministries/agencies)orverAcally(acrossdifferentlevelsofgovernment)• CoherenceasaresultofchanceorthroughdeliberatecoordinatedacAonsbetweenstakeholders
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
WhyAgandSPcanbemoreeffec,vewhenworkingtogether?
1. NeitheragriculturenorsocialprotecAonalonecanaddressallconstraintsfacedbypoorruralhouseholds
2. CoherenceavoidspotenAalharm
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Literaturereviewobjec,vesØ TogatherandsystemaAzeevidenceonthevalueaddedofcoordinatedandcoherentsocialprotecAon(SP)andagriculturalintervenAons(AI);
Ø ToassesswhetheritispossibletoidenAfywhichtypeofcombinedintervenAonshavehadthegreatestimpactswithindifferentcontexts;
Ø Tocontributetodefiningafutureevidence-generaAonagendabyidenAfyingcriAcalknowledgegaps;
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Typologyofcombinedinterven,onsaspertheliteraturesurvey
a. SustainableLivelihoodPrograms(SLP):singleprogramswithmulAplecomponentsincludingbothagriculturalandsocialprotecAonintervenAons;
b. ComplementaryPrograms(CP):programsfromthetwosectorsthataredesignedand/orimplementedinasomewhatcoordinatedand/oralignedmanner;
c. Overlappingprogrammes(OP):programsfrombothsectorswithoutalignmentorcoordinaAonwhichbeneficiariescanparAallyoverlapattheindividual/householdand/oratgeographical/communitylevelonlyinanunplannedmanner
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Examplesofcombinedinterven,ons
SustainableLivelihoodProgrammes:CFPRIandIIandFSUP-Bangladesh;GraduaAonintoSustainablelivelihoods(India(2),Pakistan,Ethiopia,Ghana,HondurasandPeru)ComplementaryProgrammes:IndiraKranAPathan(IKP)(India),P-135II(Vietnam),PNSP+OFSP/HABP(Ethiopia),CGP+LFSSP(Lesotho);HakuWiñay(Peru),Atencionacrisis+investmentgrantorvocaAonaltraining(Nicaragua).OverlappingProgrammes:Oportunidades+Procampo(Mexico);BolsaFamilia+ruralcredit(Brazil);CCT+foodsecurityandagriculturaldevelopment(ElSalvador)
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
SearchProtocol:basedonexperts’feedbackdatabasesearchandhand-search• a.)PopulaAonofinterest:ruralpoorandvulnerablepopulaAonlivinginLaAn
AmericaandtheCaribbean,Asia,AfricaandEasternEurope• b.1)AgricultureintervenAons:ruraldevelopment,accesstomarkets,natural
resourcesmanagement,distribuAonof(improved)seeds,ferAlizersubsidies(vouchers),extensionservices,subsidizedcredit,investmentgrants,asset(livestock)transfers,andhomesteadgardening
• b.2)SocialprotecAonintervenAons:socialcashtransfers(includingCCTs,CTsandsocialpensions)andpublicworks,aswellasotherbroadcategoriesthatinsomecontextsarenotclassifiedassocialprotecAonsuchasassettransfers,home-grownschoolfeedingprogrammes,microfinance,andweather-basedcropinsurance;
• Outcomesofinterest:income,expenditure/consumpAon,assetorwealthindex,poverty,purchaseanduseofinputssuchasferAlizers,investmentinproducAveassetsincludinglandandlivestock,labourmarketparAcipaAonandoccupaAonalchoices,hoursofwork,privatetransfers,sourcesofincome,foodsecurityandindicatorsforinvolvementinsocialnetworksandsocialparAcipaAon
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Criteriaforselec,on
• Onlypapersand/orevaluaAonreportsproducedajer1990;
• OnlypaperswriHeninEnglish,Spanish,PortugueseandFrench;
• UsearobustimpactevaluaAonmethodology,basedonanadequateidenAficaAonstrategy,includingthedefiniAonofaclearcomparisongroupandcounterfactual.
• Useofexperimental(randomizedcontroltrials),usuallyseenintheliteratureasthegold-standardamongtheevaluaAontechniques,andnon-experimentaldesigns(e.g.differences-in-differences,propensityscorematching,regressiondisconAnuitydesign,generalizedpropensityscoreandinstrumentalvariables)
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Totalnumberofevalua,onpapers/reportsofcombinedprograms
year Freq. %2009 2 52010 2 52011 1 32012 7 192013 1 32014 5 14
2015/6 19 51Total 37 100
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Evalua,onpapersbyregion:AsiaCountry PROGRAMMES:Papersand/orReports N
%
ASIA 17 46
Bangladesh
CFPRPhase1(SLP):Ahmedetal.(2009);Emranetal.(2014);Razaetal.(2012);Krishnaetal.(2010);Mishaetal.(2014);CFPRPhase2(SLP):Raza&Ara(2012);Bandieraetal.(2013);CLPPhase1(SLP+CP):HTPSELimited(2011)ER+(SLP+CP):Hernandezetal.(2015);FSUP(SLP):BDI(2012)SHOUHARDO(CP):Smithetal.(2011)
12
32
India
Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015);Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Bauchetetal.(2015);IndiraKran,Patham–IKP–(CP):Prennushi&Gupta(2014)
3
8
Pakistan Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015) 1
3
Vietnam P-135II(CP):IRC(2012) 1 3
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Evalua,onpapersbyregion:LAC Country PROGRAMMES:Papersand/orReports N %
LAC
11 29.7
Peru
Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015);JuntosandSierraSur(OP):Aldanaetal.(2016);JuntosandRuralcredit(OP):DelPozo(2014);JuntosandWakuWiñay(CP):EscobalandPonce(2015)
4
10.8
Brazil BolsaFamiliaandPRONAF(OP):Garciaetal.(2016) 1 2.7 Chile IEFandFosis’sproduc,vesupport(CP):Fernandezetal.(2016) 1 2.7
Colombia FamiliasenAcciónandOportunidadesRurales(CP/OP):Moya(2016) 1
2.7
Honduras Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015) 1
2.7
Mexico OportunidadesandPROCAMPO(OP):Naudeetal.(2016) 1 2.7 Nicaragua
AtencionaCrisisandcomplementaryprogrammes(CP):Macoursetal.(2012)
1
2.7
ElSalvador ComunidadesSolidariasRuralesandruraldevelopmentinterven,ons(OP):DeSanfeliúetal.(2016) 1
2.7
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Evalua,onpapersbyregion:SSA Country PROGRAMMES:Papersand/orReports N %
AFRICA
9 24
Ethiopia
Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015);PSNP+OFSP/HASP(CP):Gilliganetal.(2009);HoddinoHetal.(2012);Negaetal.(2010)
4
11
Uganda
Women'sIncomeGenera,onSupport–WINGS(SLP):BlaHmanetal.(2014)
1 2.7
Ghana Gradua,onintoSustainableLivelihood(SLP):Banerjeeetal.(2015) 1
2.7
Lesotho
ChildGrantProgrammeandLinkingFoodSecurityandSocialProtec,on(CP):Dewbreetal.(2015)
1
2.7
Malawi
SocialCashTransferProgrammeandFarmInputSubsidyProgramme:Paceetal.(2016)
1 2.7 Burkina Faso
LocalEduca,onAssistanceandProcurementproject(LEAP):integra,nglocalprocurementintoalongstandingschoolfeedingprogramme:Uptonetal.(2012) 1 2.7
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Keyfeaturesofthecombinedprogramsevaluatedandmethodologies
q StrongassociaAonbetweenregionsandtheprevalenceofcertaincategoriesofprogrammesintheevaluaAonsaswellaswithregardtothetypeofinstrumentsusedbythedifferentprogrammes:
Ø Asia:SLPdesign–focusonlivestocktransfersandextensionservices(training)coupledwithconsumpAonsupport(cashtransfers);coachingandlinkswithothersocialservices.Bangladeshover-represented.
Ø LaAnAmerica:CCTprogramme+extensionservicesandruralcredit+somelivelihoodintervenAons.Peruover-represented.
Ø Africa:Morebalanced–CP(publicworks+agriculturalintervenAons),SLPpilotsandSCT+livelihoods.Ethiopiaover-represented.
q GraduaAonintoSustainablelivelihood–Largeevidencebaseacrossregions.
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Keyfeaturesofthecombinedprogramsevaluatedandmethodologies
Ø Unliketheliteratureonsingleprogrammes,parAcularlyonSPprogrammes,therearenotmuchimpactevaluaitonofcombinedprogrammes;
Ø DifficulAesinthecoordinaAonalsoaffecttheevaluaAondesign–whereasSLPhadexperimentaldesigns,mostCPandOPhasquasi-experimentaldesign;
Ø SynergieswereparAcularlydifficulttomeasureacrossdesigns(SPL–novarietyindesignacrosstreatedgroups(armtreatments);CPandOP–rarelyonepuretreatedgroupbothintervenAons.
Ø FocusonAIandSPthatoverlapatthehouseholdlevelregardlessoftheirnature:SLP,CPorOP–InterestintheAveragetreatmenteffectonthetreated(ATT)and/orIntenAontotreat(ITT).
Ø Notmuchoneffectsonnon-beneficiaries–onlyoneligiblenon-beneficiarywhenspillovereffectsareassessed.Clearlylinkedwiththetypeofmethodologieschosenandcostofsurveys.
Ø NotCGEand/orLEWIE.Onex-anteCGE,seeLevyandRobinson(2014).
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Methodologyusedintheevalua,onsMethodology N Randomizedcontroltrial(Experimentalevalua,ons) 12 Differencesindifferences 5 Differencesindifferenceswithpropensityscorematchingwith[non-parametricmethods:e.g.nearestneighbor,kernel]
6
Differencesindifferenceswithpropensityscorematching(parametricmethod:inverseprobabilityweigh,ng)
2
Differencesindifferenceswithpropensityscorematching(parametricandnon-parametricmethods)andKlein-VellaHeteroscedas,city-BasedIden,fica,on.
1
Paneldata:fixedeffectsandrandomeffects 1 Paneldata:Fixedeffectswithpropensityscorematching 1 SingledifferenceusingGeneralizedPropensityScore(dosage) 1 SingleDifferenceanddifference-in-differencesbasedonretrospec,veques,ons
2
SingleDifferencewithpropensityscorematching 4 SingleDifference(pooleddata):GeneralizedPropensityscorematching(crosssec,on)–InverseProbabilityWeigh,ng(parametric)
1
SingleDifference(treatment:differententrycohorts) 1 Total 37
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Outcomesassessedintheevalua,ons N % Income,consump,onorexpenditures 30 81 Assets 28 76 Produc,veAssets 28 76 Foodsecurityandnutri,on 23 62 Produc,vity 21 57 Savings 18 49 Occupa,on 17 46 Credit 16 43 Communitypar,cipa,on 13 35 Poverty 5 14 Agriculturalinputs 7 19
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Investmentinland:ownedland,rentedlandandcul,vatedland§ Overall,IEsshowanincreaseinaccesstoand/oruAlizaAonofland:
Ø ForSLP,theevidencesuggeststhatinthecaseofBangladesh(e.g.CFPRPhase1and2andFSUP)partofthereturnyieldedbythelivestock-basedincomegenera(ngac(vi(eshasbeeninvestedinusingmoreland,eitherfrompurchasesorren(ng.
Ø ForCPthereisevidenceofmorelandu(liza(oninLesothowiththecombina(onoftheLFSSPPtotheCGPandinIndia,theIKPprogrammehadledtoanincreaseintheareaofcul(vatedlandbythepoorest.
Ø ForOP,overlapofruralcreditandtheCCTprogrammeJuntosInPeruseemtohaveincreasedlandu(liza(on.
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Investmentinproduc,veassets,sustainabilityandimpactsonproduc,on§ Overall,IEsshowposiAveimpactsonassetaccumulaAon,includingbothproducAveanddurableassets.
Ø SLP:ImpactsarehigherforbePer-offbeneficiaries;strongerimpactsonassetaccumula(onwereobservedfortheEthiopiapilotwheretheassettransferwascombinedwiththeconsump(onsupportofthePNSP.
Ø CP:Similarevidencewasalsofoundintheevalua(onsofcombina(onbetweenPSNPandOFSP/HABPinEthiopia.
Ø ForotherCPandevensomeOP,thereisevidencethatagriculturalinterven(onssuchasextensionservicesandaccesstobePertechnologyarelikelytotriggersomesynergis(ceffectswhencombinedcashtransfersorpublicworksprogrammesintermsofassetaccumula(onandadop(onofnewtechnologies.Posi(veimpactswereobservedfortheIKPinIndia;theP-135inVietnam;theSierraSurandJuntosandRuralcreditandJuntosinPeru;CSRandEPinElSalvador;andfortheinterac(onbetweenthecoverageofBolsaFamiliaandPRONAFinBrazil.
Ø However,mixedevidencefortheextenttowhichinvestmentsinproduc(veassetsaretranslatedintohigherproduc(onandhigherbusinessrevenue
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Accesstocreditandsavings• OverallIEsshowposiAveimpactsonsavingsandaccesstoformalcredit.
• SLP:Posi(veimpactsonsavings,butaPenua(oninthelong-run.Posi(veimpactsoncreditaccessand/orashi\awayfrominformalloanstowardsformalones.Anoteofcau(onreferstothefactthatposi(veimpactonfinancialinclusionseemtoberestrictedtobePer-offpar(cipants.
• Evalua(onsofCPalsoshowposi(veimpactsonaccesstocreditforbeneficiariessuchasinthecaseofthecombina(onofthePSNPandtheOFSPinEthiopia.
• EveninthecontextofOPtherehasbeensomeposi(veimpacts:inElSalvador,par(cipa(ngorhavingpar(cipatedintheCCTprogrammefacilitatedaccesstocredit,mostlyformal.
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Diversifyingeconomicac,vi,esandsourcesofincome
q OverallIEsshowsomediversificaAonofeconomicacAviAeswithinagriculture(includinghomesteadgardensandlivestockraising),butalsoashijawayfromagriculturetowardsnon-farmbusiness.
Ø InmanyoftheSLP,partofthelivestockrevenuehasbeenusedtofosterhighreturncropproduc(on(FSUPinBangladesh),butnotnecessarilynon-farmbusiness.
Ø Diversifica(onintonon-farmbusinesswasmorecommonintheevalua(onofprogrammeswhoseobjec(vewasclearlytoenablevulnerablehouseholdstohaveanon-farmsourceofincomesuchasinNicaragua(CCT+investmentgrant)andUganda(WINGS),butthistypeofimpactwasalsofoundinthecaseofthecombina(onofPSNPandOFSPinEthiopia(aswellasforthePSNPonly),andintheER+inBangladesh.
Ø InthecaseofsomeCPandOP,theeconomicdiversifica(onwaspartofthecomplementaryagriculturalprogramme,usuallyasextensiveservicesandimpliedtheintroduc(onofnewcrops.
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Nega,vecopingstrategies
q Evidenceonchildworkismixed• BolsaFamiliainBrazilseemstobeassociatedwithadecreaseinchildwork,theinterac(onbetweenBolsaFamiliaandruralcreditgoesinthesamedirec(on,howeverinLesothothecombinedinterven(onsseemstohaveledtoanincreaseinchildrenengagementinfarmingac(vi(es,par(cularlyforgirls.• Asforbeggingandotherundesirableformsofoccupa(on,theevalua(onoftheCFPR1inBangladeshshowsreduc(onsintheirprevalence,butwithaPenuatedeffectsinthelongterm.• Assetdeple(onseemstobesuccessfullyavoidedinSLP,morelikelyduetotheconsump(onsupportcomponent,althoughnoevalua(onhasdisentangleditseffect.
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Shilsinlaboralloca,on
q Combinedprogrammesdonotgeneratedependencybutinstead,tendtosAmulatelabourforceparAcipaAonamongbeneficiaries.
Ø SLPincreasesthepropor(onoffarmself-employment,par(cularlyamongwomen,astheyarethecorebeneficiariesoftheassettransfers..Mostofthisincreaseinfarmself-employmentcomesattheexpenseof(mespentinwagelabour,buttheoverallbalancedoesnotsuggestreduc(oninworkintensity.
Ø Thisisalsoobservedamonginterven(onsthataimtoenableruralhouseholdstodiversifytheirincomesbyengaginginnon-farmac(vi(essuchasinUganda(WINGS)andNicaraguaCCTplusinvestmentgrantfornon-farmbusiness.
Ø SimilarimpactswerealsofoundforCPsuchasthePSNPplusOFSPinEthiopiaandthecombina(onoftheLFSSPPwiththeCGPinLesotho.
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Impactonconsump,on,expenditureandincome
q OveralltheIEsshowposiAveimpactsonincome,totalexpenditureandtotalandpercapitafoodexpenditure.ThelaHerseemstohaveledtoimprovementsinfoodsecurity.
Ø SLPandCP,mainlyinAsiaandinAfricashowveryposi(veimpactinallthesedimensions.IntheSLPpar(cularlyforthepoorestquin(les.
Ø InLa?nAmericatheresultsseemmoremixedwithsomecombina(onsfailingtoimproveincomes(SierraSurandJuntos)and/orfoodsecurityindicators(FamiliasenAcciónandOportunidadesRurales),whereasothersshowposi(veimpactsonpercapitaincome(BolsaFamiliaandPRONAFandJuntosandHakuWiñay)andfoodsecurityindicators(CCTplusinvestmentgrantinNicaraguaandCCTplusruraldevelopmentinElSalvador).
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Posi,veresults:summaryØ InvestmentinproducAveassets;Ø Savingsandaccesstoformalcredit;Ø Diversifyingsourcesofincometowardsmorestable,permanentandprofitablesources;Ø Shijtowardsself-employment,parAcularlyforwomen,and/orshijtowardsmoreprofitableanddecentemployment;Ø Foodsecurity;Ø Income,consumpAonandexpenditurelevels;andØ PovertyreducAon.
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
MixedresultsØ InvestmentonproducAveassetsandfinancialinclusionweremuchlargerorrestrictedtothebeHer-offbeneficiaries.ReachingthepoorestofthepoorsAllseemschallengingevenwithinthecontextofSLP;
Ø TheextenttowhichhigherinvestmentleadstolongtermproducAvityandincomegains,parAcularlyforCPprogrammesinLaAnAmerica;
Ø AdequacyofstandardagriculturalextensionservicesforthetargetedpopulaAonofsocialassistanceprogrammes;
Ø Trade-offbetweenwagelabourandself-employmentasasustainablelocaldevelopmentstrategy;
Ø Impactonchildlabour;Ø DirecAonandscaleofspillovereffects;Ø Effectsofscaling-up.Ø SustainabilityoftheresultsoverAme.
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Whichtypeofcombinedinterven,onshavehadthegreatestimpacts?
q AtthisstageitisdifficulttoassessitduetotheassociaAonbetweengroupsofintervenAonsandrobustnessofevaluaAondesigns…
Ø SLPtendtobeexperimentalorhavemorerobustquasi-experimentaldesign;
Ø However,mostSLPevaluaAonswithexperimentaldesigndidnotdisentanglethecontribuAonofeachcomponentandmeasuringsynergies.
Ø CPandOPhadlessrobustevaluaAondesignandwereoverrepresentedamongLAC,parAcularly,amongCCTpluscashtransfers(excepAon:Macoursetal.(2012))
SocialProtec,on-FromProtec,ontoProduc,on
Evalua,ongapsØ MorerobustevaluaAonofCPsandOPswithaclearsesngtomeasuresynergiesandsAllfocusingonindividual/householdoutcomes;
Ø MoreevaluaAonsofcombinedintervenAonsonthecommunityandlocalmarkets(LEWIEmodels)
Ø Accesstomarketshavebeenunder-evaluated.Ø ImpactevaluaAonsofprogrammesthatcombinelocalpurchaseswithfoodassistance,includingHGSFiniAaAves.
Ø Cost-benefitanalysisaremissinginmostevaluaAons