SOCIAL SHIFTS

Nation States

Private Enterprises Civil Society

Driven by

- Globalisation of the Market Economy- Globalisation of Information

SECTORAL POWER SHIFTS

SKILLS

and

RESOURCES

STATE

PRIVATE SECTOR

CIVILSOCIETY

Segregation of Powers

Military (Security Agencies)

Strong Political Partiesbased on values

Administration

LegislationJudiciary

Professional

Civilian Accountability

Liberal

Conservative

Social Democratetc

Sustainable, independent and diverseGood infrastructure commercial / financialRegulatoryenvironment

Independent & strong

Well - resourced

Diverse interest groups

Distribution of Power and Influence:SWEDEN

CIVIL SOCIETY SECTOR

11%PUBLIC SECTOR

27%

PRIVATE SECTOR

62%

Distribution of Power and Influence:EUROPE

CIVIL SOCIETY SECTOR

30%PUBLIC SECTOR

40%

PRIVATE SECTOR

30%

Sources: World Population Data Sheet 2010, Population Reference Bureau 2012 Data Sheet

Population projection (2012)

(millions):

2025 2050750 732

Population (2012): 740 million

Urban population: 73%

Life expectancy at birth: 77 years

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births):

5.22

Adult population (aged 15-49) with HIV/AIDS (2012):

Male Female0.5% 0.4%

GNI PPP per capita (2011): US$ 27533

Population living on less than US$ 2 per day: 0%

Population using improved sanitation (2011):

Urban Rural99% 99%

Concentration of Power and Influence:AFRICA

Population (millions):2025 2050

1,446 2,358(750 732)

Population (2012): 1,072 million(740 million)

Urban population:39%

(73%)

Life expectancy at birth:58 years

(76 years)

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births):

67

Adult population (aged 15-49) with HIV/AIDS (2009/2011):Male Female3.0% 4.7(0.5% 0.4%)

GNI PPP per capita (2011): US$ 2,251(US $25,580)

Population living on less than US$ 2 per day: 65% (0%)

Population using improved sanitation (2010):Urban Rural42% 23%(99% 99%)

State

Private Sector

Civil SocietyPEOPLEPEOPLE

Sources: World Population Data Sheet 2010, Population Reference Bureau 2012 Data Sheet

Distribution of Power and Influence:SOUTH AFRICA

CIVIL SOCIETY SECTOR

23%

PUBLIC SECTOR

18%

PRIVATE SECTOR59%

Centre and Periphery:SOUTH AFRICA

Centre 30%Periphery 70%

Distribution of Power and Influence:BURUNDI

Civil Society Sector4%

Public Sector61%

Private Sector35%

Centre and Periphery:BURUNDI

Centre 5%

Periphery 95%

Africa’s Dilemma

Indigenous Methods of CR

and PB

ACCORD Interventions

Developed Market

Developed Democracy

Burundi South Africa Sweden

100% education and economic prosperity

New normative Framework: e.g. ICC, R2P

GlobalisationMultinational Corporations

Managing conflict instead of solving it

Economic and political marginalisation