SOFTWARE TOOL FOR ASSESSMENT OF FOOD CONTAMINATION AND FOOD BANS REGULATIONS 

Petr Pecha Radek Hofman

Institute of Information Theory and Automation , Prague, Czech Republic

Emilie Pechova

Nuclear Research Institute Řež, Czech Republic

Activities are supported by the project No. VG20102013018:

„Application of advanced statistical assimilation techniques of model predictions with observations from terrain in the form of modern software tool

for emergency management support“

provided by the Ministry of the Interior of the Czech republic.

Best specific activities, food contamination, external irradiation: estimate their time integrals long-term evolution cloudshine, groundshine,output in air, deposition of deposition, internal activity intake:values on terrain, .... resuspension, .... inhalation and ingestion Release of Atmospheric and Food chain dynamic Dose submodulenuclides eposition module module irradiation estim.

CONSEQUENCES OF ACCIDENTAL RELEASE OF RADIOACTIVITY INTO ATMOSPHERE

Müller, H. and G. Pröhl. 1993. “ECOSYS’87: A Dynamic Model for Assessing Radiological Consequences of Nuclear Accidents.” Health Physics, Vol. 64, No. 3, March 1993.

Müller, H., F. Gering and G. Pröhl. 2003. “Model Description of the Foodchain and Dose Module Terrestial in RODOS PV6.0”. Technical report RODOS(RA3)-TN(03)-06.

Brown, J. and J.R. Simmonds. 1995. “FARMLAND-A Dynamic Model for the Transfer of Radionuclides through Terrestrial Foodchains.” Research Report NRPB-R273, Chilton, Didcot,UK.

SIGNIFICANT EUROPEAN DYNAMIC INGESTION MODELS

INTERACTIVE INPUTS

Interactive regime offers wide range of input data and model parameters alternative options thus enabling fast examination of their variability and

uncertainty on random fluctuations of the resulting outputs.

INTERACTIVE INPUT SUBSYSTEMS:

1) Atm. dispersion model and release scenario definitions

2) Ingestion parameters definitions

3) LHS – (Latin Hypercube Sampling) for uncertainty propagation through the model

ADM input panel

FOOD-CHAIN ACTIVITY TRANSPORT

Driving essential input radiological variables : TICnair (photosysnthesis of H3,C14)

Ωngr (tout ) (accidental scenario - acute exposure); Draten

gr (routine oper. - chronic exposure)

plant leaves (foliar uptake)

soil (root uptake)

edible parts of plants

feedstuffs

animal products

foodstuffs:

PROCESSING STORAGE TRANSPORT CONSUMPTION

continuous attack during veg. period

interception translocation transfer

processing of feedstuffs

transfer to animal products

processing of foodstuffs

culinary preparation

direct consumption

Ingestion data

TYPES OF CALCULATIONS

•Deterministic calculations (design basis accidents, worst- case scenarios)

•Variability examinations ( sensitivity analysis, alternative model parametrisation, categorial variables,…)

•Uncertainty analysis

Variability reflects changes of a certain quantity over time, over space or across individuals in a population. Variability represents diversity or heterogeneity in a well characterized population. The true variability does not disappear with better measurement.

The term uncertainty covers stochastic uncertainties, structural uncertainties representing partial ignorance or incomplete knowledge associated with poorly-characterized phenomena and uncertainties of input data. We can only reduce the uncertainties by obtaining the better information.

Total effective committed doses for adults (pathways of cloudshine, groundshine, inhalation and ingestion– scenario “case 1” ). Intake in the first year (year of fallout, summer fallout in July 1 , the effect of local rain caused intensive wet removal . Real meteorological conditions: from archive : March 5, 2009, 20.00 CET , local rain, class D

Depletion of specific activity of 137Cs (Bq.kg-1) in grains of harvested cereals in horizon of 25 years after the fallout - scenario “case 1” from Table 1.

0. year 1st year

5th year 25th year

Illustration of agricultural countermeasures: Restricted area for harvest of cereals in the 2nd year after the fallout, given limit of 137Cs in grains is 1250 Bq/kg -

scenario “case 1”

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

HARP FLOWCHART –deterministic and probabilistic components

Model chain for probabilistic predictions of spatial distribution of random fields of output values

Random specific activities, food contamination, external irradiation: fields of their time integrals long-term evolution cloudshine, groundshine,output in air, deposition of deposition, internal activity intake:values on terrain, .... resuspension, .... inhalation and ingestion Release of Probabilistic Probabilistic Probabilistic irradiation nuclides ADM FCM doses estimation Number of random input 1, … , M1 1, … , M2 1, … , M3parameters