Solar is worse for the environment inefficiency causes more emissions Zycher, Pacific Research Institute Senior Fellow, 12 (Benjamin, Martin V. Smith School of Business and Economics adjunct professor, associate in the Intelligence Community Associates Program of the Office of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State, former senior staff economist for the President's Council of Economic Advisers, April 19, Zycher testimony to joint House subcommittee hearing on subsidies for renewable energy, http://www.aei.org/article/energy-and-the-environment/alternative-energy/zycher-testimony-to-joint-house-subcommittee-hearing-on-subsidies-for-renewable-energy/, d/a 8-1-12, ads)A cleaner environment is worth it, you say? Not so fast. As counterintuitive as it may seem, increased reliance on wind and solar power will hurt the environment, not because of such phony issues as endangered cockroaches, used by the environmental left as a tool with which to obstruct the renewable energy projects that they claim to support. Instead, this damage will be real, in the form of greater air pollution. The conventional generators needed to back up the unreliable wind and solar production will have to be cycled up and down because the system operators will be required to take wind and solar generation when it is available. This means greater operating inefficiency and more emissions. That is precisely what a recent engineering study of the effects of renewables requirements found for Colorado and Texas. So we have achieved the perfect leftist trifecta: higher costs, lower reliability, and more environmental degradation. Such plagues are hardly biblical, but neither are they trivial. Will Governor Brown finally be content? Obviously not, as he now wants higher taxes to feed a Sacramento monster utterly destructive in so many dimensions.Turn NF3 1NC Solar energy causes massive warming emits highly virulent greenhouse gasses Zehner. University of California Berkeley Visiting Scholar, 12(Ozzie, June 04, Green Illusions: The Dirty Secrets Of Clean Energy, http://thegwpf.org/the-climate-record/5880-green-illusions-the-dirty-secrets-of-clean-energy-.html, d/a 8-2-12, ads)Hexafluoroethane has a global warming potential that is 12,000 times higher than CO2, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is 100 percent manufactured by humans, and survives 10,000 years once released into the atmosphere. Nitrogen trifluoride is 17,000 times more virulent than CO2, and SF6, the most treacherous greenhouse gas, is over 23,000 times more threatening. The solar photovoltaic industry is one of the fastest-growing emitters of these gases, which are now measurably accumulating within the earth's atmosphere according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A NOAA study shows that atmospheric concentrations of SF6 have been rising exponentially. A paper published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters documents that atmospheric NF3 levels have been rising 11 percent per year. "If photovoltaic production grows, so will the associated side effects," claims Zehner. "Even worse, there's no evidence that solar cells offset fossil fuel use in the American context." Zehner explains that alternative energy subsidies keep retail electricity costs incrementally lower, which then spurs demand. "It's a boomerang effect," remarks Zehner. "The harder we throw alternative energy into the electrical grid, the harder demand comes back to hit us on the head. Historically, we've filled that demand by building more fossil fuel plants, not fewer." Instead, Zehner advocates shifting to energy taxes and other conservation measures. He claims that even some of the most expensive options for dealing with CO2 would become cost competitive long before today's solar cell technologies. "If limiting CO2 is our goal, we might be better off directing our time and resources to those options first; solar cells seem a wasteful and pricey strategy," says Zehner. "It is hard to conceive of a justification for extracting taxes from the working class to fund installations of Stone Age photovoltaic technologies high in the gold-rimmed suburbs of Arizona and California."

Turn NF3 2NC/1NRSolar causes NF3 increases that causes extreme warming Conniff, Guggenheim Fellow, 08(Richard, National Magazine Award-winning writer, has written for Yale e360aboutcarbon offsetsand clean coal, November 13, The Greenhouse Gas That Nobody Knew, http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2085, d/a 8-2-12, ads)When industry began using NF3 in high-tech manufacturing, it was hailed as a way to fight global warming. But new research shows that this gas has 17,000 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide and is rapidly increasing in the atmosphere and that's turning an environmental success story into a public relations disaster. Hypothetical question: Youre heartsick about global warming, so youve just paid $25,000 to put a solar system on the roof of your home. How do you respond to news that it was manufactured with a chemical that is 17,000 times stronger than carbon dioxide as a cause of global warming? It may sound like somebodys idea of a bad joke. But last month, a study from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography reported that nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), with a global warming potential of 17,000, is now present in the atmosphere at four times the expected level and rapidly rising. Use of NF3 is currently booming, for products from computer chips and flats-screen LCDs to thin-film solar photovoltaics, an economical and increasingly popular solar power format. Moreover, the Kyoto Protocol, which limits a half-dozen greenhouse gases, does not cover NF3. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change now lists it among five major new greenhouse gases likely to be included in the next phase of global warming regulation, after 2012. And while that may be reassuring, it also suggests the complicated character of the global warming problem.

NF3 stays in the atmosphere for over 500 years Conniff, Guggenheim Fellow, 08(Richard, National Magazine Award-winning writer, has written for Yale e360aboutcarbon offsetsand clean coal, November 13, The Greenhouse Gas That Nobody Knew, http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2085, d/a 8-2-12, ads)To tear apart that layer of crud and clean the vacuum chamber, manufacturers were using powerful fluorinated greenhouse gases. The usual choice, hexafluorethane, or C2F6 sounds better at first than NF3. In global warming terms, its only about 12,000 times worse than carbon dioxide. But C2F6 is difficult to break down, and roughly 60 percent of what goes into the vacuum chamber ends up in the atmosphere. With NF3, estimates suggested that under optimal conditions, roughly 98 percent of what goes into the vacuum chamber is destroyed there. So when the semiconductor industry announced a voluntary partnership with the EPA to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 10 percent from 1995 levels between 1999 and 2010, NF3 became the replacement technology of choice. Makers of flat-screen displays soon announced a similar program. In 2002, the EPA gave a Climate Protection Award to the largest NF3 producer, Pennsylvania-based Air Products and Chemicals Inc., for its work in reducing emissions. Then last summer, a paper calling NF3 the greenhouse gas missing from Kyoto attracted widespread press attention. Co-authors Michael J. Prather and Juno Hsu of the University of California at Irvine noted that NF3 is one of the most potent greenhouse gases known and persists in the atmosphere for 550 years.

Turn NF3 2NC/1NRCountermeasures dont solve companys dont regulate NF3 efficiently Conniff, Guggenheim Fellow, 08(Richard, National Magazine Award-winning writer, has written for Yale e360aboutcarbon offsetsand clean coal, November 13, The Greenhouse Gas That Nobody Knew, http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2085, d/a 8-2-12, ads) Moreover, even the latest equipment does not guarantee that a company will achieve the optimal emissions rates for instance, in the solar cell industry. Amorphous silicon thin-film solar photovoltaic cells, manufactured using NF3, are slightly less efficient than crystalline silicon solar cells, the dominant technology. But they are cheaper to produce and expected to supply a rapidly increasing share of the solar market, for both large-scale and domestic applications. Because thin-film is a new technology, manufacturers generally use the latest equipment. But a knowledgeable source, who asked to remain unidentified, recently visited thin-film solar researchers in Asia. They were unaware of the NF3 issue. They were using a remote plasma, but they were also using quite a bit of NF3. They werent sure they had it set up right for 98 percent destruction. It wasnt really on their radar. The bottom line, said UC Irvines Prather, is that industry really cannot be trusted for self-regulation. We will not know the extent of the problem until we have honest, legally required reporting. The other important lesson from the NF3 case, according to Scrippss Weiss, is that the bottom-up measurements required by some global warming regulations arent enough. Figuring out how much methane a cow produces, then adding up the cows, may not give you ground truth when it comes to global warming. You have to measure from the top down, and see whats actually going into the air.

NF3 stays in the atmosphere longer and is far more potent than C02Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 08 (Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego, The National Research Council has ranked Scripps first in faculty quality among oceanography programs nationwide, October 23, Potent Greenhouse Gas More Prevalent in Atmosphere than Previously Assumed, http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=933/, d/a 8-2-12, ads)Compound used in manufacture of flat panel televisions, computer displays, microcircuits, solar panels is 17,000 times more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego A powerful greenhouse gas is at least four times more prevalent in the atmosphere than previously estimated, according to a team of researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego. Using new analytical techniques, a team led by Scripps geochemistry professor Ray Weiss made the first atmospheric measurements of nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), which is thousands of times more effective at warming the atmosphere than an equal mass of carbon dioxide. The amount of the gas in the atmosphere, which could not be detected using previous techniques, had been estimated at less than 1,200 metric tons in 2006. The new research shows the actual amount was 4,200 metric tons. In 2008, about 5,400 metric tons of the gas was in the atmosphere, a quantity that is increasing at about 11 percent per year. "Accurately measuring small amounts of NF3 in air has proven to be a very difficult experimental problem, and we are very pleased to have succeeded in this effort," Weiss said. The research will be published Oct. 31 inGeophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). Emissions of NF3 were thought to be so low that the gas was not considered to be a significant potential contributor to global warming. It was not covered by the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions signed by 182 countries. The gas is 17,000 times more potent as a global warming agent than a similar mass of carbon dioxide. It survives in the atmosphere about five times longer than carbon dioxide. Current NF3 emissions, however, contribute only about 0.04 percent of the total global warming effect contributed by current human-produced carbon dioxide emissions. Nitrogen trifluoride is one of several gases used during the manufacture of liquid crystal flat-panel displays, thin-film photovoltaic cells and microcircuits. Many industries have used the gas in recent years as an alternative to perfluorocarbons, which are also potent greenhouse gases, because it was believed that no more than 2 percent of the NF3 used in these processes escaped into the atmosphere.Turn NF3 2NC/1NR

Prefer our studies decades of research confirms NF3 is a significant threat Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 08 (Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego, The National Research Council has ranked Scripps first in faculty quality among oceanography programs nationwide, October 23, Potent Greenhouse Gas More Prevalent in Atmosphere than Previously Assumed, http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=933/, d/a 8-2-12, ads)The Scripps team analyzed air samples gathered over the past 30 years, working under the auspices of the NASA-funded Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network of ground-based stations. The network was created in the 1970s in response to international concerns about chemicals depleting the ozone layer. It is supported by NASA as part of its congressional mandate to monitor ozone-depleting trace gases, many of which are also greenhouse gases. Air samples are collected at several stations around the world. The Scripps team analyzed samples from coastal clean-air stations in California and Tasmania for this research. The researchers found concentrations of the gas rose from about 0.02 parts per trillion in 1978 to 0.454 parts per trillion in 2008. The samples also showed significantly higher concentrations of NF3 in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, which the researchers said is consistent with its use predominantly in Northern Hemisphere countries. The current observed rate of increase of NF3 in the atmosphere corresponds to emissions of about 16 percent of the amount of the gas produced globally. In response to the growing use of the gas and concerns that its emissions are not well known, scientists have recently recommended adding it to the list of greenhouse gases regulated by Kyoto. "As is often the case in studying atmospheric emissions, this study shows a significant disagreement between 'bottom-up' emissions estimates and the actual emissions as determined by measuring their accumulation in the atmosphere," Weiss said. "From a climate perspective, there is a need to add NF3 to the suite of greenhouse gases whose production is inventoried and whose emissions are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, thus providing meaningful incentives for its wise use." "This result reinforces the critical importance of basic research in determining the overall impact of the information technology industry on global climate change, which has already been estimated to be equal to that of the aviation industry," added Larry Smarr, director of the California Institute for Telecommunications at UCSD, who was not involved in the Scripps study. Michael Prather is a UC Irvine atmospheric chemist who predicted earlier this year that based on the rapidly increasing use of NF3, larger amounts of the gas would be found in the atmosphere. Prather said the new Scripps study provides the confirmation needed to establish reporting requirements for production and use of the gas.Plan net increases warming reductions in C02 are minimal compared to external emissions Weiss et al, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Professor of Geochemistry, 08 (Ray, B.S. from the California Institute of Technology, Jens Muhle, Peter K. Salameh, and Christina M. Harth, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, October 31, Nitrogen trifluoride in the global atmosphere, http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0820/2008GL035913/2008GL035913.pdf, d/a 8-2-12, ads)Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) has come into increasing use in the electronics industry, mainly for equipment cleaning, for the etching of microcircuits, and for manufacturing liquid crystal flat panel displays and thin-film photovoltaic cells. As a replacement for perfluorocarbon (PFC) gases in these applications, NF3 is largely destroyed during the manufacturing process, resulting in reduced emissions to the atmosphere [Robson et al., 2006; Lee et al., 2007]. On the other hand, the global warming potential (GWP) of NF3 on a 100-year time horizon, about 17,000 times that of carbon dioxide, is greater than the GWPs of the PFCs it replaces and thus NF3 has a greater impact on Earths climate per unit mass of emissions [Forster et al., 2007; Prather and Hsu, 2008].

Turn Pollution 1NC

Production process causes more warming De Decker, Low-tech Magazine Contributor, 08 (Kris, March 03, The ugly side of solar panels, http://www.energybulletin.net/authors/Kris+De+Decker, d/a 8-2-12, ads)Producing electricity from solar cells reduces air pollutants and greenhouse gases by about 90 percent in comparison to using conventional fossil fuel technologies, claims a study called "Emissions from Photovoltaic Life Cycles", to be published this month in Environmental Science & Technology. Good news, it seems, until one reads the report itself. The researchers come up with a solid set of figures. However, they interpret them in a rather optimistic way. Some recalculations (skip this article if you get annoyed by numbers) produce striking conclusions. Solar panels dont come falling out of the sky they have to be manufactured. Similar to computer chips, this is a dirty and energy-intensive process. First, raw materials have to be mined: quartz sand for silicon cells, metal ore for thin film cells. Next, these materials have to be treated, following different steps (in the case of silicon cells these are purification, crystallization and wafering). Finally, these upgraded materials have to be manufactured into solar cells, and assembled into modules. All these processes produce air pollution and heavy metal emissions, and they consume energy - which brings about more air pollution, heavy metal emissions and also greenhouse gases.

China DA 1NC Success in US solar industry trades off with Chinese solar development Bradsher, New York Times Asian business Writer, 11(Keith, September 1, China Benefits as U.S. Solar Industry Withers, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/business/global/us-solar-company-bankruptcies-a-boon-for-china.html, d/a 8-3-12, ads)The bankruptcies of three American solar power companies in the last month, including Solyndra of California on Wednesday, have left Chinas industry with a dominant sales position almost three-fifths of the worlds production capacity and rapidly declining costs. Some American, Japanese and European solar companies still have a technological edge over Chinese rivals, but seldom a cost advantage, according to industry analysts. Loans at very low rates from state-owned banks in Beijing, cheap or free land from local and provincial governments across China, huge economies of scale and other cost advantages have transformed China from a minor player in the solar power industry just a few years ago into the main producer of an increasingly competitive source of electricity. The top-tier Chinese firms are kind of the benchmark now, said Shayle Kann, a managing director of solar power studies at GTM Research, a renewable energy market analysis firm based in Boston. Pricing of solar equipment is determined by the Chinese industry, he said, and everyone else prices at a premium or discount to them. Besides Solyndra, the other two American manufacturers that filed for bankruptcy in August were Evergreen Solar, of Massachusetts, and SpectraWatt, a New York company. Another company, BP Solar, halted manufacturing at its complex in Frederick, Md., last spring. Those bankruptcies and closings represent almost one-fifth of the solar panel manufacturing capacity in the United States, according to GTM Research. Solyndra and Evergreen in particular suffered because they pursued unusual technologies whose competitiveness depended on their using less polysilicon, the main material for solar panels. That has become less important because polysilicon prices have tumbled more than 80 percent in the last three years as output has caught up with demand. Analysts say that two American companies remain strongly placed. One is First Solar, the largest American manufacturer, which uses a different technology but has its biggest factory in Malaysia. The other, SunPower, is much smaller but is an industry leader in the efficiency with which its panels convert sunlight into electricity, so that they sell at a premium to Chinese panels. But with Beijing heavily supporting its industry, the Chinese companies are forging ahead. There is no question that renewable energy companies in the United States feel pressure from China, said David B. Sandalow, the assistant secretary for policy and international affairs at the United States Energy Department. Many of them say it is cheap capital, not cheap labor, that gives Chinese companies the main competitive advantage. Chinas three biggest solar power companies Suntech Power, Yingli Green Energy andTrina Solar have all in the last two weeks announced second-quarter sales increases of 33 to 63 percent from a year earlier. Yingli and Trina were also profitable in the quarter. Suntech posted a loss, mostly because it broke a longstanding agreement to buy solar wafers critical components in the manufacturing process from a Singapore affiliate of MEMC Electronic Materials of Missouri. Suntech aims to make more wafers itself. Shares in large and small Chinese solar power companies have mostly rallied in the last two weeks on the New York and Hong Kong stock markets, as investors have welcomed their strong quarterly results and the prospect of dwindling competition from Western rivals. Besides the bankruptcies in the United States, solar power companies in Germany, another big producer, have been laying off workers and retrenching. The recent strength of Chinese stocks truly reflects the low cost base of the Chinese solar manufacturers, and it is great to see their positioning, particularly relative to their American and European counterparts, said K. K. Chan, the chief executive of Nature Elements Capital, a Chinese clean energy investment company based in Beijing. He attributed the Chinese industrys low costs not to inexpensive labor in China high-technology solar panel manufacturing is not labor-intensive but rather to free or subsidized land from local governments, extensive tax breaks and other state assistance. Solar panel prices have plunged by 30 to 42 percent per kilowatt-hour in the last year as manufacturers have sharply increased capacity, particularly in China. Meanwhile, demand has been somewhat weak in the main markets in the United States and Europe.

Solar is key to Chinas economy massive investments and restructuring now Xinhua News, 12(July 9, Slowdown spurs restructuring of China's economy, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-07/06/c_131700158.htm, d/a 8-3-12, ads)The amount of photovoltaic capacity installed in China will reach 21 gigawatts by 2015, four times more than that in the government's initial plan, local media reported citing sources from the National Energy Administration. Although the figure has yet to be confirmed, there is no doubt that the country is pouring investment into the new energy sector, especially the renewable energy resources. The government is trying to combine stimulus measures and restructuring efforts to reinvigorate the slowing economy. On the website of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), there are lists of all projects approved by the country's top economic planner. By June 20, a total of 1,500 projects had been approved, the data shows. Among the approved projects, new energy ones such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation account for a big proportion. Others include information engineering, high-end equipment, technical innovation, water conservation and poverty-relief projects. Energy saving and environmental protection are notably emphasized in new projects. For example, in the power sector, projects with big generating capacities are replacing those with small capacities. Similar changes are happening in the metallurgy and building materials industries. Since the financial turmoil, the weaknesses of the Chinese economy -- its excessive dependence on external demand -- have been exposed. The country has realized that restructuring is needed, as problems have emerged in the country's economic development, including unreasonable industrial layouts, environment pollution and imbalanced regional growth. Right at this time, stabilizing growth has become the pressing concern. The slowing economic growth in China has aroused widespread concerns this year. Media reports, both at home and abroad, focus on the Chinese government's measures to stabilize growth.Chinese growth key to prevent CCP lashoutShirk, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation Director, 07(Susan, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, responsible for U.S. relations with China, professor at UC-San Diego's Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, CHINA: FRAGILE SUPERPOWER, http://atruechineserenaissance.blogspot.com/2007/06/book-review.html, d/a 8-3-12, ads)As Chinas leaders well know, the greatest political risk lying ahead of them is the possibility of an economic crash that throws millions of workers out of their jobs or sends millions of depositors to withdraw their savings from the shaky banking system. A massive environmental or public health disaster could also trigger regime collapse, especially if peoples lives are endangered by a media cover-up imposed by Party authorities. Nationwide rebellion becomes a real possibility when large numbers of people are upset about the same issue at the same time. Another dangerous scenario is a domestic or international crisis in which the CCP leaders feel compelled to lash out against Japan, Taiwan, or the United States because from their point of view not lashing out might endanger Party rule.

Nuclear and biological warRenxing, EpochTimes Staff Writer, 05(San, August 05, The CCPs Last-ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear WarHundreds of millions of deaths proposed, http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30931.html, d/a 8-3-12, ads)Since the Partys life is above all else, it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its attempt to extend its life. The CCP, which disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans, along with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. These speeches let the public see the CCP for what it really is. With evil filling its every cell the CCP intends to wage a war against humankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life.Thatis the main theme of the speeches.

China DA Overview 2NC/1NR

CCP Lashout outweighs A. Magnitude China would use nuclear and biological weapons causing massive escalation and draw in B. Most likely scenario for escalation China would pre-empt US actionAFP, 10(February 21, CHINA READY TO GO TO WAR WITH U.S. OVER TAIWAN, http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/archive.cgi?noframes;read=1721, d/a 8-3-12, ads)

China is ready to engage in war and even nuclear conflict with the United States should fighting break out over Taiwan, Der Spiegel magazine reports on the basis of a supposedly-secret Chinese file. "Document No. 65", allegedly produced by the military sub-committee of the Chinese Community Party's central committee, discussed the possible course of a war over the disputed island claimed by China. "We would have to make a military intervention as early as possible, before the American troops are fully operational," according to the document cited by the German magazine. Faced with US bombardment of key sites and military installations, the document stressed that China has roughly the same level of conventional forces and would benefit from a fight close to its own territory. While arguing that the US would have little interest in starting a nuclear war over the island, the file said that Beijing would be ready to turn to its nuclear arsenal should circumstances demand. "We are ready to defend every square centimetre of our country," said the document. Dated August last year, the analysis would appear to have been drafted during a low point in relations between Beijing and Taipei caused by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui's insistence that his country should enjoy "state-to-state" ties with China. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has repeatedly warned that it would use force if necessary to ensure its return to the mainland.

China DA Uniqueness 2NC/1NRChinas Solar growth is rapid Reuters, 12(July 11, "China drives 24% rise in new clean tech investment,"http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/11/clean-energy-investment-idINL6E8IB5JL20120711, d/a 8-3-12, ads)

China was the main contributor to a 24 percent rise in new global investment in clean energy in the second quarter as large Chinese solar and wind projects raised millions of dollars of finance, said research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. New global clean energy investment totalled $59.6 billion in the second quarter of this year, up 24 percent from the previous quarter but still 18 percent below the near-record high of $72.5 billion in the second quarter of 2011, the company said in a report on Wednesday. China experienced a 92 percent surge in investment to $18.3 billion in the second quarter from the previous quarter. "China has recently quadrupled its domestic goals for solar installations. And it has been by far the biggest market for wind turbines for several years. These figures underline the pivotal role China is playing in the clean energy sector," said Michael Liebreich, Bloomberg New Energy Finance chief executive. The International Energy Agency said last week that China would overtake Europe as the world's top renewable energy growth market this year as Europe's economic downturn and maturing renewable markets shift the growth centre to large emerging markets.Massive investments now Woo, ICIS News Reporter, 12(Felicia, February 1, China sees rapid solar growth; eyes 3GW new capacities in '12, http://www.icis.com/Articles/2012/02/01/9528245/china-sees-rapid-solar-growth-eyes-3gw-new-capacities-in-12.html, d/a 8-3-12, ads)

China is likely to install at least three gigawatts (3GW) of new solar power capacity this year, up from 2GW installed in 2011, as its government strives to enhance solar energy usage as part of efforts to combat stubbornly high oil prices, industry players said on Wednesday. The worlds second-biggest energy user, after the US, has a total solar capacity of 2.9GW as of last year, according to Chinas Silicon Industry Association. There will be a significant number of solar projects to be implemented in China this year. The government will roll out incentives to help local manufacturers at the provincial level, said an industry player in east China. The reduction in solar feed-in tariff had bolstered photovoltaic demand in the Chinese market since late last year, players said. Developers of solar power projects that were approved before 1 July and were completed by the end of last year could be sold to grid operators at yuan (CNY) 1.15/kilowatt hour (kWh) (18 cents/kWh). For projects that were approved before 1 July and will be completed after 2011, the on-grid price is CNY1/kWh. The Chinese authorities are widely expected to further lower its reserve requirement ratio for banks afterChina posted its slowest growth in two-and-a-half years at 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011. The easing of the monetary policy will help free up liquidity, and will boost solar investments. Meanwhile, with US oil prices hovering at near $100/bbl (76/bbl), Beijing will target to diversify its energy usage, with solar power as one of the main segments that can be developed, players said. The Chinese solar panel manufacturers are likely to retain much of their solar panels in the domestic market, on expectations of weak solar demand in Germany amid an economic crisis in Europe, players said. That would help to boost the solar power capacities in China, they added. Prices of polysilicon the feedstock to make solar wafers, cells, and modules will likely rebound in the coming weeks, thanks to increased Chinese demand, players said.

China DA Link 2NC/1NRLack of US subsidization causes China growth Ecoseed, 12(Ecoseed is a leading source for global green news, finance, and other resources in delivering green and renewable energy to mainstream business, "Asia shift: R.E. investments look beyond U.S., E.U.," Global Content & Research Ltd., 6-26-12, http://www.ecoseed.org/business/asia/14911-asia-shift-r-e-investments-look-beyond-u-s-e-u, d/a 8-3-12, ads)

Venture capital firms and other investors are racking up investments in renewable energy projects in Asia as government incentives, the rising demand for electricity, and the region's energy potential sweeten the promise of renewables while Europe and the United States experience problems. China and India continue to be the leading destinations for renewable energy investors. But interest has been growing in countries in South and Southeast Asia as well. A Reuters report says the governments in these nations are setting their targets for renewable industry expansion and extending subsidies and tax breaks. The U.S. and Europe, meanwhile, are cutting back on subsidies. Slowdown in E.U., U.S. Global investments in renewable energy went down 22 percent in the first quarter of 2012 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. This was the lowest the industry reached in terms of investment since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, following a record year where an estimated $263 billion was poured into renewable energy, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. This result is said to attributable partly to subsidy cuts in Spain, Germany, and Britain, plus tax credits uncertainty in the U.S. The European sovereign debt crisis also caused affected countries to decrease renewable energy investment. The already two-year crisis has caused cuts in the region's credit rating, including the region's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility. The U.S., though not as troubled as Europe, has seen its fair share of reduced government spending and investments, as the government tax credits and grants continued to face the question of whether they would be extended or not. This is even if the Brookings Institution warned that not extending the tax credits and grants would put more clean technology companies either bankrupt or consolidated. "People are shying away from cleantech, and it's clearly slowed down," Pierre Lamond, a partner at venture capital firm Khosla Ventures, was quoted in a MercuryNews.com article as saying. "In 2007, anything that was green, or claimed to be green, got investment. Now everyone is looking for the next Facebook." He says solar and wind startups are "dead," and that venture capitalists see more money in social media.

China DA Internal Link 2NC/1NR

Solar is key to Chinas econ causes tech breakthroughs Gambhir, Grantham Institute research fellow, 12(Ajay, Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, "How China could decarbonise by 2050," China Dialogue, 3-6-12, lexis, accessed 7-14-12, mtf)

The Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, in partnership with Austria's International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), has recently completed its own assessment of how China gets from here (a coal-intensive, oil-importing emerging economy) to there (a largely decarbonised, energy-efficient economic giant powered by vast quantities of non-fossil energy). The study (see the full report here) uses IIASA's energy-technology modelling of the options to decarbonise the energy supply sectors (power generation, fossil fuel and biomass extraction and conversion) with the Grantham Institute's analysis of the options to decarbonise the major energy-using sectors: transport, buildings and industry. The resulting analysis highlights some of the pathways along which China's economy could decouple economic growth from carbon-dioxide emissions, to the extent that by 2050 these emissions could be of the order of one-third the eight to nine gigatonnes estimated as current levels, and much lower than the 16 gigatonnes the International Energy Agency (in its Energy Technology Perspectives 2010) projects could result from a pathway closer to business-as-usual. (The report follows an earlier study by the Grantham Institute on the implications of China's 2020 carbon intensity targets, available here.) In modelling exercises for many different countries and regions, a common solution to the problem of decarbonisation is to increasingly electrify heating, road vehicles, rail and industrial processes, while at the same time shifting from fossil-fuel based power-generation sources to a mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Such is the case in this assessment, where - technologically, at least - it is feasible to reduce the carbon intensity of electricity generation in China by a factor of 15 by 2050, such that it stands below 50 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour on average. This is around the level the United Kingdom aims to hit by 2030, and which is deemed possible with a diverse mix of low-carbon sources. It brings with it all kinds of challenges, not only for China, but also for other countries. Continued investment in research-and-development to bring down the costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) and to commercialise CCS will be a critical factor in achieving large penetrations of these technologies. Continued support for wind power will also be essential to ensure its deployment. Nuclear energy could also be a key technology, requiring careful consideration of access to uranium supplies, through either more efficient fast-breeder reactors or alternative (thorium) fuel reactors. And the changing climate and its effect on rainfall and water availability will be considerations for a number of power technologies, especially hydro power. One of the greatest challenges in providing decarbonised electricity will be in balancing the system to ensure that supply meets demand, as responsive generation plants such as those fired by coal (whose output can be varied relatively quickly in response to demand variation) is replaced by variable output renewables, such as wind and solar, or nuclear, which is currently best suited to base-load generation. Moreover China's wind, solar, and hydro resources are highly dispersed geographically, and the development of a strong long-distance grid will be essential to exploit them fully. China's industrial emissions also continue to grow rapidly as it produces a large share of the world's iron and steel, cement, chemicals and other manufactures. Clearly, a major driver of future emissions from these sectors will be the extent to which China continues to dominate production of these goods. But even if significant growth in these sectors continues in line with economic development over the coming decades, it is still in theory possible to achieve large savings in energy-intensity and the carbon-intensity of production processes. Electrification (combined with electricity decarbonisation) in the iron and steel and chemicals sectors; the replacement of older, less efficient cement kilns with state-of-the-art efficient kilns using today's best available technologies; and the aggressive deployment of commercial-scale CCS in the cement, iron and steel sectors, could in combination lead to emissions reductions in the industry sector of the order of 80% of business-as-usual emissions levels, without sacrificing production levels. In transport, even though there is much talk about decreasing China's future oil import dependence by developing electric vehicles, equally if not more important across all transport modes will be improvements in energy efficiency, with increased biofuel usage also potentially providing significant carbon dioxide savings, provided that the biofuels are sourced from genuinely sustainable production methods and that the lifecycle emissions are kept to a minimum. This is far from trivial and will require very careful planning around growth, harvesting and transport of the biomass. In addition, China's continuing urbanisation will present opportunities as well as challenges to keep to a low-carbon development path, through urban planning that maximises public transport options and minimises the requirement for individual car usage. In buildings, the biggest opportunities for emissions reductions involve achieving much higher energy-efficiency standards across urban and commercial building stock, ensuring that low-carbon heating methods such as electric heat pumps and combined-heat-and-power (or cogeneration) replace today's widespread heating from coal and unsustainable biomass, and achieving high average standards across all new lighting and appliance installations. With such a rapidly urbanising country and the associated building boom that has come with this, whether China's policymakers can ensure that building and appliance standards improve at the technically feasible rate is by far the greatest challenge for this sector. China's abatement pathway presents a range of energy and resource considerations, in addition to the biomass and uranium issues already noted. Gas could represent an increasing element in China's energy mix in an abatement scenario (replacing coal in both the power generation and industry sectors) but there remain considerable challenges to securing gas supplies from abroad or accessing potentially significant unconventional gas resources, including their climate and local environmental impact. The question of whether, and to what extent, to develop the large coal reserves in China's far-west is a major strategic decision for the Chinese government. This would require large scale investment in railways or electric transmission. As a result of its large market and production capacity, China's low-carbon pathway is likely to have a major impact on the global development and cost reduction of key low-carbon technologies, such as solar PV, electric vehicles, wind, nuclear and CCS. But China could also benefit from existing international know-how: in advanced nuclear manufacturing; elements of solar PV and battery technology; urban planning for transport and buildings; and monitoring and regulation of energy-efficiency standards for buildings and appliances. In addition, the increasingly apparent need for a long-term, stable carbon price to support several low-carbon technologies in China points to the benefits of policies such as domestic carbon-trading schemes, in which China is now looking at a range of pilot schemes.

China DA Impact Economy China growth prevents global economic collapseThorneman, Bain & Co partner in Shanghai, 10(Michael, Johnson Chng, Bain & Co Partner in Beijing, Andrew Schwedel Bain & Co partner in New York, August 23, Uncertain times for business in China and world, http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/uncertain-times-for-business-in-china-world.aspx, d/a 8-3-12, ads)As we finally emerge from the depths of the Great Recession, a lot of attention naturally focuses on trying to handicap the speed and strength of the coming rebound. Some forecast a quick snap-back driven by years of pent-up demand. Others see a slower, more grudging recovery defined by deep unemployment and persistent credit issues For anyone running a business, however, the more important point is that no matter how fast the turnaround comes, success is unlikely to get easier. The plates have shifted beneath the global economy in ways that will increase competitive pressure and squeeze even the most recession-hardened business models. The winners coming out of this seismic event will likely be those agile enough to spot the fault lines quickly and adjust their strategies accordingly. China is a prime example. Businesses everywhere should closely track signs that the country's strong growth may be cooling. Weak growth in Europe, coupled with the continent's debt problems, uncertainty in the US, and the diminishing competitiveness of Chinese exports all are taking their toll. Any slowing of the Chinese economy would have worldwide implications.Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior of interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompsons (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin, 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflicts as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner, 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remains unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copelands (1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggest that future expectation of trade is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavior of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace item such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write, The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favor. Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg and Hess, 2002, p. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg, Hess and Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. Diversionary theory suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a rally around the flag effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995) and Blomberg, Hess and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997), Miller (1999), and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states due to the fact the democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. De DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States and thus weak Presidential popularity are statically linked to an increase in the use of force. In summary, recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic, dyadic and national levels. This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in economic-security debate and deserves more attention. This observation is not contradictory to other perspectives that link economic interdependence with a decrease in the likelihood of external conflict, such as those mentioned in the first paragraph of this chapter. Those studies tend to focus on dyadic interdependence instead of global interdependence and do not specifically consider the occurrence of and conditions created by economic crises. As such the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.

China DA Impact Economy China Key EXTN Chinas key to the global economy exports and rapid growth Duke, Daily Mail Staff Writer, 10(Simon, August 16, As China's economy soars, a slowdown in Japan raises global fears, http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-1303645/As-Chinas-economy-soars-slowdown-Japan-raises-global-fears.html, d/a 8-3-12, ads)After growing by a huge 10.3 per cent, Chinas economic output topped 870billion in the second quarter, compared with 825billion in Japan. Eswar Prasad, a former International Monetary Fund economist, said Japans demotion was a marker of Chinas increasingly dominant role in the global economy. Last year China overtook the US as the biggest car market in the world and raced past Germany as the biggest exporting nation. Its economy is now an astonishing 90 times larger than in 1978 when leader Deng Xiaoping first opened it up to the free market. As the developed world remains in the mire, gravity-defying China is becoming increasingly integral to the prospects of a sustained recovery from the first global recession since World War II.

China is key comparative growth and investment opportunities Holmes, Chief Investment Officer of U.S. Global Investors, 11(Frank, U.S. Global Investors CEO, October 31, How China drives the global economy, http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2011/10/31/how-china-drives-the-global-economy/, d/a 8-3-12, ads)Looking out over the next five years, a portion of Chinas oil demand will come from transportation fuels. Bernstein thinks the country is at an inflexion point and the demand for cars and the fuels necessary to make them go should grow more quickly than GDP. During the last 10 years, the number of vehicles has grown at an annual rate of 17 percent, and since 2007, more new vehicles are on the roads than put on to the roads over the [previous] 30 years, states Bernstein. Although car sales have slowed in recent months because of the governments monetary tightening policies and the ending of a stimulus program for car buyers, the long-term desire for auto-mobility remains. Bernstein expects the number of vehicles to double in China, from 78 million to 155 million units over the next five years. While demand in China plays catch-up to the developed world, developed world companies are tapping this resource to find growth. These are companies such as Caterpillar, which reported a record-breaking third quarter this week, with sales and revenues increasing in every part of the world. Most notably, the industrial bellwether saw a 38-percent jump in sales and revenues in the Asia-Pacific region. During the companys conference call, CEO Doug Oberhelman said that he supported the actions taken by the Chinese authorities to slow its economy. In his view, this was the best thing that could have happened to the construction equipment industry. He thought China was previously growing at an unsustainable pace, and now this slowdown is extremely healthy in the long-term, he added. Health can be a relative term when comparing equities. Right now, China appears to be a healthy place to invest compared to U.S. stocks. Bloomberg data shows that companies in the MSCI China Index had a higher revenue per share, a higher earnings per share, a higher dividend yield and a lower price-to-earnings ratio than the stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Chinas economy is expected to grow by 9.1 percent this year and 8.4 percent next year, according to Barclays Capital. This is quite significant when you consider that the global economy is anticipated to grow at a much slower pace of 3.7 percent in 2011 and 2012. While our investment team continues to closely monitor Chinas economic health, it appears that the companies in the country still have some room to grow.