WHATWHAT’’S NEW S NEW WHATWHAT’’S NEXT S NEXT WHATWHAT’’S NEEDEDS NEEDED

SOLAR ENERGY SOLAR ENERGY OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

2

PHOTOVOLTAICS

NEW: CONCENTRATOR PV

NEXT: MULTIPLE JUNCTION

3

PV Deployment & Cost Extrapolation

MW PV Installed Per Year

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

year

25% CAGR

35% CAGR

Market (40%)

42% CAGR 2002-2006 Median of industry forecasts calls for 8GW in 2010 (>45% CAGR)

4

Silicon Cost/Volume Extrapolation

Source: Dick Swanson of Sunpower Corp at 2006 MIT Stanford UC Berkeley Nanotechnology Forum and Greentech Jan 2008 Podcast

Cost Decreases 20% for Every Doubling of Production Dick Swanson argues that there is no big secret on how to make high efficient solar cells in the lab but knowing how to scale is hard

It took both First Solar and Sunpower more than 10 years to hone their mfg skills

5

MOVING BEYOND SILICON

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Triple Junction Cell

Silicon1 Junction Silicon Solar Cell

3 Junction Solar Cell StackMaterial1

Material2

Material3

Energy ConversionEfficiency

Electrical power (Output)Light power (Input)

=

Energy Conversion Efficiencyof Silicon Cell

Energy Conversion Efficiency of MJ Cell

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Needed: Broader Spectral Response

Name

Uncollected Long Wavelength Light(4% of total sun power)

0.7eV Ge Junction(30% of total sun power)

1.42eV GaAs Junction(24% of total sun power)

1.9eV InGaP Junction(42% of total sun power)

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Need for Lattice-matched materials

Computer simulation of the dark line defects seenin semiconductor lasers.New materials systems& growth processes willbe required for wider spectral response.

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SOLAR THERMAL

NEW: NON-TRACKING PANELS

NEXT: NEW APPLICATIONS

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Today’s Solar Thermal

• The Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) at Kramer Junction, CA (SEGS III-VII)

– Five 30MW hybrid trough plants for a total of 150MW Capacity

– Commissioned 1986-1988

– Performance has increased with time

• Four additional SEGS plants located in two locations (Daggett, Harper Lake) for combined total of nine plants and 354 MW capacity

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Parabolic Troughs, A Closer Look

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Small-Scale Non-tracking System

Higher efficiency and temperature than competing

collectorsUltimately 50% at 200 C

Lower cost: Non-tracking design

Well suited to many mid-temperature commercial and

industrial applications

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Non-tracking Target Applications

Commercial scale hot water» Northern geographies» Limited roof space» High water demand in all geographies

Industrial process heat» e.g. dairy, food prep., mining, drying, oil extraction, pre-heating

HVAC» Absorption cooling with heat application» Initial penetration in Europe (Spain)

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WIND POWER

NEW: STADIUM SIZE WINDMILLS

NEXT: ELECTRONIC “GEAR-BOXES”

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Wind Has Comparable Costs Close to Coal

US Retail Parity

Comparable to Coal and Natural Gas Wind avg $0.056/kWh ($0.04~$0.12/kWh) Coal is $0.025~0.053/kWhNatural Gas $0.040~0.052/kWh

COE = Cost of Energy

Wholesale Price from Coal

Japan Retail Parity

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Bigger (and offshore) is better

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Size of Blade Makes A Difference

> 74GW installed; 20% growth> CAPEX is $2-3/w> Already a big business> Constrained by steel cost,

hard to make gear box, ideal wind sites far from demands

> Future opportunity is off-shorewind or distributed small wind

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Denmark: Global wind powerhouse

World’s largest windmill manufacturer

20 % of electricity comes from wind

50 % projected by 2025

Electric cars to act as batteries

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ELECTRIC VEHICLES

NEW: PLUG-IN VEHICLES

NEXT: CHARGING INFRASTUCTURE

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Stretching Our Fuel Supply:Today’s Automobile

Only 1 gallon in 15 goesto moving the wheels

IDLEIDLE

ENGINE LOSSESENGINE LOSSES

ACCESSORIESACCESSORIES

DRIVETRAINDRIVETRAIN

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Prius: Better than a gas-hog, but….

Small (2 kWSmall (2 kW--hr) NiCad battery, short (1hr) NiCad battery, short (1--2 km) range. Partial 2 km) range. Partial discharge only. Captures energy from regenerative breaking.discharge only. Captures energy from regenerative breaking.Engine must drive generator and wheels (canEngine must drive generator and wheels (can’’t be optimized for a t be optimized for a single task).single task).

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Chevrolet VOLT: Electric drive plug-in

16 kWh Li-ion battery.65 km range on one charge. Overnight charging requires 220V.Small gasoline engine can recharge battery for additional 480 km.

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NEEDED STEPS

GROW THE GRID: Transmission lines to link cities with deserts. example

BEHAVIORAL CHANGE: Time of day pricing. example

GREENER BUILDINGS: High-R windows and insulation. example

QUESTIONS AND QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS PLEASECOMMENTS PLEASE

SOLAR ENERGY SOLAR ENERGY OVERVIEWOVERVIEW