Date post: | 12-Jun-2015 |
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Principal Solar Institute
Ron Seidel
Director, Principal Solar Ron Seidel is principal of RBS Energy Consulting, working with private
equity, investment banks, and government on electric energy issues primarily in the ERCOT market. Previously, he was president of Texas Independent Energy, senior vice president of Energy Supply at City Public Service of San Antonio, and an executive at TXU where he was senior vice president of Fossil Generation and Mining, president of TXU Energy Trading, and operations manager at the Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant.
Solutions for the Texas Energy
Shortage
Source: ERCOT
The ERCOT System
ERCOT Facts & Figures
200,000 Square Miles
40,500 miles of Transmission (2010)
73,492 MW Peak Capacity
10,035 MW of wind generation
68,294 MW Peak Load (2011)
13.75% Target Reserve Margin
2011 Peak Reserve Margin 7.6%
4 DC Ties, 1100 MW (to Mexico and SPP)
Stand alone system about the size of the UK
Source: ERCOT
Wind 13%
Hydro, biomass,
other 1%
Nuclear 7%
Coal 23%
Natural Gas 56%
Installed Capacity 2011
Wind 8%
Hydro, biomass,
other 1% Nuclear
12%
Coal 39%
Natural Gas 40%
Energy Produced 2011
68,251 Megawatts 335,000 Gigawatt-hours
Source: ERCOT
ERCOT Capacity and Energy
ERCOT Load Growth
ERCOT Average Load Growth 2013 – 2022 is 2% or 1,400 MW per year
Equivalent to
–One large nuclear plant each year
– Two large coal plants each year
– Three combined cycle gas plants each year
Sources: ERCOT , RBS Energy Consulting
ERCOT Reserve Margins May 2012 Report
-2
0
2
4
6
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Target =13.75%
Source: ERCOT
%
Why is there a potential shortage?
Low natural gas prices reduce financial viability for new resources
Power prices have been arbitrarily capped, conflicting with the design of the energy only market
Electricity demand growth in Texas is robust, creating the need for new capacity
What is being done about it??.....
The Brattle Group Report – PUCT Options
Energy only with market-based reserve margin
Energy only with adders to support a target reserve margin
Energy only with backstop procurement at minimum acceptable reliability
Mandatory resource adequacy requirement for load serving entities
Resource adequacy requirement with a centralized forward capacity market
Source: The Brattle Group
Where Do We Go From Here?
PUCT Workshops / Deliberations / Rulemakings
No real issue until 2014/2015 with mothballed units in service and with normal summers
2013 Legislature may address the resource adequacy issue
My opinion: A capacity market in some form is inevitable – an energy market will require patience
We could go here…….
U.S. & Texas Solar Intensity
Source: NREL
Utility Scale PV Potential Urban areas
U.S Total: 1,218 GW 2,231,694 GWhrs 25,369 km2
Texas: 154 GW 294,684 GWhrs 3,214 km2 (<1%)
Source: NREL
Source: NREL
U.S Total: 152,974 GW 280,613,217 GWhrs 3,186,955 km2
Texas: 20,411 GW 38,993,582 GWhrs 425,230 km2 (61%)
Utility Scale PV Potential Rural areas
Source: NREL
U.S Total: 664 GW 818,733 GWhrs
Texas: 60 GW 68,717 GWhrs
Rooftop PV Potential
Achievable Solar PV Energy in Texas
Reference: ERCOT Maximum Load ~68 GW
Urban PV = 154 GW (13% of U.S. Total)
Rural PV = 20,000 GW (14% of U.S. Total)
Rooftop PV = 60 GW (10% of U.S. Total)
Achieving just 1% of this capability would produce over 200 GW or almost three times the current ERCOT maximum load.
Sources: NREL, RBS Energy Consulting
Solar Synergy with Load
Source: RBS Energy Consulting
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Ge
ne
rati
on
(M
W)
Syst
em
Lo
ad (
MW
)
Hour
System Load Wind Generation Solar Generation
Capacity Value
The portion of capacity that can be counted on for reliability purposes
Conventional resources - 100%
– nuclear, coal, natural gas
Wind - 5% to 40%
– 8.7% in ERCOT due to uncontrollability and intermittency
Solar PV – 25% to 75%
– Synergy with load
Sources: NREL. ERCOT
Electricity Cost and Emissions Savings with the addition of various amounts of solar PV in 2011
Solar PV CO2 Avoided Energy Cost Benefit
MW (tons) ($)
1000 323,000 167,900,000
2500 811,000 348,400,000
5000 1,612,000 520,300,000
The Brattle Group Report for The Solar Energy Industries Association
Source: The Brattle Group
Summary
ERCOT needs new capacity
Currently over 10,600 MW of wind is in operation
Only about 75 MW of utility scale solar PV operating – Between 60 MW and 480 MW in the pipeline
Texas leads the nation in solar PV capability
Solar PV has a higher capacity value than wind and is synergistic with load
While solar PV will not displace wind or conventional generation completely, shouldn’t it be a significant part of the energy equation for Texas and the nation??
Questions and Discussion
Ron Seidel Director, Principal Solar
Please enter your questions into the Chat window