Solving the Energy, Climate, and Air-Quality-Health Crises With Wind

Mark Z. JacobsonDept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering Stanford University

JP Morgan’s Fourth Annual Public Power & Gas Conference

New York City, New YorkMay 11, 2006

Temperature Changes 1880-2005

Los Angeles (Dec. 2000)

Mark Z. Jacobson

Direct and Externality Costs of Three Energy Sources

Sources:DOE Office of Fossil Energy (2001) Science 293, 1438 (2001) Derived From UNEP (2001) European Commission (1995) Atmos. Environ. 35, 4763 (2001)

Direct Global Particle OtherTotalcost warming health environ.

cost(¢/kWh) cost cost cost (¢/

kWh)(¢/kWh) (¢/kWh)

(¢/kWh)

New coal 3.5-4 0.4-1 3-8 1.6-3.38.5-16New nat gas 3.3-3.6 0.7-1.10.4-2 0.5-1.1 4.9-7.8New wind 2.9-4.7 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1

2.9-5.0

Energy Cost From New, Large Turbine

New 1500 kW turbine, 77-m diameter blade, 7-7.5 m/s annual winds

Energy produced per year: = 4.68-5.24 x 106 kWh/yr

Cost of turbine+installation+land+financing+roads+consultancy = $1000/kW

Amortize over 20 years @ 6-8% = $131,000-153,000/yrAnnual O&M @ 1.5-2.5% of turbine = $18,000-$30,000/yrTotal direct cost = $149,000-$183,000/yr

Direct cost per unit energy produced = 2.9-3.9 ¢/kWhLong-distance transmission cost = 0-0.8 ¢/kWhTotal cost: = 2.9-4.7 ¢/kWh

Installed Wind Capacity Worldwide

Country Installed Capacity (MW)

Germany 16,629Spain 8,263U.S. 6,740Denmark 3,117India 3,000

World 50,000 as of October, 2005

Individual turbine ≈ 1 MW--> ≈

50,000 turbines

Wind Power For Electricity

Global electric power demand: 1.6-1.8 TW

Average wind speed at 80 m height offshore:~8.6 m/s

How many 5 MW turbines in 8.5 m/s winds needed

to satisfy global electric demand?~860,000

What % of water within 25 km of world’s 1.6 million

km of coast needs to be shallow/windy?~0.9

Wind Power For all EnergyGlobal overall power demand: 9.4-13.6 TWHow many turbines needed?~5,000,000What % water within 25 km of a coast needed?~4.9Available global wind over land/near shore > 6.9 m/s: ~72 TW

-->Enough wind for 40x all electric power, 6x all energy

Available solar power at surface over land: ~31,000 TWAvailable tidal power*: ~3.7 TWAvailable wave power*: ~5 TWAvailable hydropower* (5% already used): ~6.5 TW

Ethanol forms acetaldehyde, the 3rd-leading ozone precursor Ethanol from corn -- carbon neutral at best

Ethanol from switchgrass -- carbon uncertain but still high

Water Depths ≤ 50 m (blue) within 25 km (Red Line) of

California’s Coast

Dvorak and Jacobson (2006)

Impacts of Wind vs. Fossil-/Biofuels

U.S. bird deaths from 7000 turbines 10,000-40,000/yr (!)U.S. bird deaths from transmission towers: 50 million/yr (!)Worldwide bird deaths from avian flu: 200 million/yr (%)

Extrapolated bird deaths with 860,000 turbines: 1.2 million/yr

Extrapolated bird deaths with 5,000,000 turbines: 7.1 million/yr

Premature U.S. deaths fossil-/biofuel pollution: 80,000-137,000/yr (*)U.S. respiratory illness fossil-/biofuels:

63-105 million/yr (*)U.S. asthma fossil-/biofuels: 6-14 million/yr (*)

The effect of wind turbines on birds will always be trivial relative to the benefit of reducing fossil-biofuels on human and animal illness.

(!) Bird Conservancy (April 2006); (%) San Jose Mercury News (April 2006)(*) McCubbin and Delucchi (1999)

Mean 80-m Wind Speed in EuropeArcher and Jacobson (2005) www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/

Archer and Jacobson (2005) www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/

Mean 80-m Wind Speed in North America

New Offshore Wind Farm

June 20, 2003 - CNC“A study by Stanford University reported that…the greatest reservoir of previously uncharted wind power in the continental U.S. may be offshore and onshore along the southeastern and southern coasts. Ever since it was released, Texas's General Land Office has been fielding calls from developers.”

October 24, 2005 - USA Today“Texas has sold a lease for an 11,000-acre tract in the Gulf of Mexico that backers believe could become the first wind energy farm along the U.S. coast, state officials announced Monday.

Wind Speed and Ocean Depth Maps

Courtesy U. Deleware Grad. College Marine Studies

Red/dark blue > 7.5 m/s wind All but dark blue < 21 m deep

Proposed Nantucket Sound Windfarm

Courtesy U. Deleware Grad. College Marine Studies

Reducing transmission capacity 20% reduces power 9.8% with 1 turbine but only 1.6% with 19 turbines

Firming Wind by Aggregating Farms

19 connected wind farms produce 33% firm power (222 kW out of 670 kW expected power from 1500 kW turbines) when operating at 87.5% reliability, the average for a U.S. coal plant). Archer and Jacobson

(2006)

Aggregate Wind Power (MW) From 81% of

Spain’s Grid Versus Time of Day, Oct. 26, 2005

Simulations of Future Vehicle Scenarios

• Baseline case (1999 fleet of onroad vehicles)

• Hybrid case• Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCV), where H2 from

– Steam-reforming of natural gas– Wind-electrolysis– Coal gasification

Jacobson, Colella, Golden (2005)

Percent Reduction in Total U.S. Anthropogenic Emission Upon Switching Onroad Vehicles to

Hydrogen from Steam-Reforming of Natural GasPollutan

tPercentReductio

n

Pollutant

PercentReductio

n

CO2 -15 Ethene -25

CH4 +21 Formald. -20

CO -55 Higher ald.

-52

NOx -33 Toluene -17

SO2 +2 Xylene -28

NH3 -5.3 BC2.5 -15

Paraffins

-27 OM2.5 -2

Near-Surf. Black Carbon Diff. (g/m3)

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0Near-surface black carbon dif. (ug/m3) nat. gas minus base

Natural gas-HFCV minus base

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0Near-surface black carbon dif. (ug/m3) wind minus base

Wind-HFCV minus base

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0Near-surface black carbon dif. (ug/m3) coal minus base

Coal-HFCV minus base

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0Near-surface black carbon dif. (ug/m3) hybrid minus base

Hybrid minus base

Annual Reduction in Illness/Mortality

Hybrid Nat. gas Wind Coal

Asthma (millions)

0.3-0.9 1.2-3.4 1.2-3.4 1.1-3.3

Resp. Illness (millions)

5-8 18-30 18-30 17-29

Death 1400-2400

3700-6400

3700-6400

2700-4700

Reduction in Health/Climate Costs For Each ScenarioHybrid Nat.

gasWind Coal

Billion $/yr

15-103 33-248 46-283 10-149

$/gallonGas/dieseldisplaced

0.09-0.65

0.21-1.58

0.29-1.80

0.06-0.95

Summary• Sufficient winds are available worldwide to supply all electric power and nonelectric-power energy sources.

• 33-45% of wind power can be firmed by interconnecting wind farms. The rest, which is intermittent, can be used in wind-electrolysis/hydrogen fuel cells and wind-battery systems.

• Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reduce air pollution significantly, regardless of whether hydrogen in produced from wind, natural gas, or coal gasification. Wind-H is better for climate than natural gas-H. Hybrids are better for climate but worse for air quality than coal-H.

• By comparison, ethanol produces acetaldehyde, the third leading ozone-smog precursor, and it hampers efforts to improve air quality in California. CO2 balances for ethanol vary with large uncertainties.

SummaryU.S. ($/gal)

Gas cost Feb. 13. ‘06: 2.28 Gas+externality: 2.57-4.08

Near-term cost of hydrogen from wind-electrolysisElectricity ($0.03-$0.05/kWh+transmiss) $1.60-3.77/kg-H2

Electrolyzer (50-95% occupied) $0.39-2.00/kg-H2

Water $0.005-0.009/kg-H2

Compressor $0.70-1.34/kg-H2

Storage $0.31-0.31/kg-H2

Total $3.01-7.43/kg-H2

Total per gallon of gasoline displaced: $1.12-3.20/gallon

Near-term cost of H2 from wind may be ≤ real cost of gasoline