Some Initial SSP ExperimentsIIASA-IAM Framework

Keywan Riahi, Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, David McCollum, Nebojsa

Nakicenovic, Shonali Pachauri, Shilpa Rao, Oscar Van Vliet

SSP FrameworkPreliminary(!) quantificationsof three SSPs

SSPs build upon earlier work• IIASA Special Issue (2007):

Integrated assessment of uncertainties of GHGs and their mitigation (SRES-based with major updates)

• Global Energy Assessment (2011) New scenarios with focus on the interaction of climate policies with other major local objectives (energy access, pollution, energy security)

Selected SSP Characteristics

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3Population

growthurbanizationeducation

LLH

MMM

HHL

EconomyGDP growthconvergence

HH

MM

LL

Technical Changeenergy supply & demandAgricultural productivityfossil resources

RapidHL

IntermediateMM

SlowLH

Governance andinstitutional effectiveness

H M L

Other non-climate policy priorities (MDGs, health/air pollution, energy access, etc…)

Rapidly improving

Improving Slow or no progress

Increasing socio-economic challengeto mitigation & adaptation

World Population and GDP

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Wor

ld G

DP

(trilli

on U

S$ 2

005)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800AR4 database SSP1SSP2SSP3

AR

4 da

taba

se

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Wor

ld p

opul

atio

n (b

illion

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18AR4 database SSP1SSP2SSP3

AR

4 da

taba

se

Grey range = 10th to 90th percentile of AR4 baseline

Population & per Capita Income

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

GD

P (m

er) p

er c

apit

a, U

S$ p

er h

ead

population, million

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

Industrialized

Developing

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

GD

P (m

er) p

er c

apit

a, U

S$ p

er h

ead

population, million

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

Population & per Capita Income

2100 SSP1: 470 T$

2000: 39 Trillion $

2100: SSP2: 370 T$

2100: SSP3: 280 T$

World

85% Urban

70% Urban

60% Urban

National GDP Projections(Downscaling from regional level)

GDP per Capita - B1OECD90 versus ALM

100

1000

10000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

OECD90

ALM

GDP per Capita - A2OECD90 versus ALM

100

1000

10000

100000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

OECD90

ALM

GDP/cap SSP1 GDP/cap SSP3

Based on Grubler et al, 2007

Spatial Socio-economics(relevant for impacts & mitigation)

Dynamic GDP maps (to 2100) Dynamic population density (to 2100)

Development of bioenergy potentials “bottom-up” assessment

Different land-price, urban areas, net primaryproductivity, biomass potentials (spatially explicit)

“Top-down”Downscaling

Rokitansky et al, 2007

Technological Changeselected technologies: 2020-2050

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

H2 (from biomass)

H2 (from natural gas, SMR)

Methanol (from coal)

Ethanol (from biomass)

Solar-PV

Wind power plant

Biomass gasification power plant

Gas combined cycle power plant

Coal power plant

Nuclear power plants

Investment cost [$/kW]

Cost improvement 2020 - 2050 2020

Ele

ctric

ity g

ener

atio

nLi

quid

s &

H2

A2

B2

B1

SSP3

SSP2

SSP1

historical1850

40%

1900

1950

1920

60%

20%

Renewables / Nuclear100%80%60%40%20%

197060%40%

Coal

80%

100%

20% 80%

Oil/Gas

0%0%

100%0%

A1T

B2B1

A2

A1F1

CA2

A1

B

A3A1B

1990

Oil & gasforever

Grandtransition

MuddlingthroughReturn

to coal

Energy Transitions(IIASA-WEC and IPCC SRES Scenarios – Primary Energy Shares)

Energy Transitions: Baselines

SSP32100

SSP12100

SSP22100

historical

2050

Energy Transitions: SSPs + SPA2.6

SSP3-4502100

SSP1-4502100

SSP2-3b2100

Energy Intensity & Energy Demand

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Wor

ld p

rimar

y en

ergy

(EJ)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500AR4 database SSP1SSP2SSP3

AR

4 da

taba

se

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Wor

ld p

rimar

y en

ergy

inte

sity

of G

DP

(MJ/

US$

2005

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

AR4 database SSP1SSP2SSP3

AR

4 da

taba

se

Grey range = 10th to 90th percentile of AR4 baseline

Riahi #15 2008

0

200

400600

800

1000

1200

14001600

1800

2000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

EJ

RenewablesNuclearGasOilCoal

Global Primary Energy – SSP3

Riahi #16 2008

0

200

400600

800

1000

1200

14001600

1800

2000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

EJ

RenewablesNuclearGasOilCoal

Global Primary Energy – SSP1

Global CO2 Emissions

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Glo

bal C

O2

emis

sion

s (G

tCO

2)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140SSP1SSP2SSP3 SSP3

SSP3

SSP2

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

BL (8.5 W/m2)

Increasing socio-economic challengeto mitigation & adaptation

SSP3 (HIGH) SSP1 (LOW)SSP2 (MEDIUM)Cl

imat

e Si

gnal

Mit

igat

ion

Chal

leng

e

BL (7 W/m2)

BL (5.7 W/m2)

x

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

BL (8.5 W/m2)

Increasing socio-economic challengeto mitigation & adaptation

SSP3 (HIGH) SSP1 (LOW)SSP2 (MEDIUM)Cl

imat

e Si

gnal

Mit

igat

ion

Chal

leng

e

BL (7 W/m2)

BL (5.7 W/m2)

? ? ?

Implications of SSPs for Mitigation

x

Supply and Demand-side Improvements

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%

ener

gy in

tens

ity

impr

ovem

ent

carbon intensity improvement

carbon intensity improvement(% per year form 2000 levels)

ener

gy in

tens

ityim

prov

emen

t(%

per

yea

r)

History(1940 – 2000)

8.5 W/m2

6

4.5

2.6 7 W/m2

5.7 W/m22.6

4.5

2.6 4.5

World GHG EmissionsSSP3: RCP8.5 4.5 W/m2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

An

nu

al G

HG

em

issi

on

s (G

tC e

qu

iv)

SSP3 without climate policy

Illustrative only: note attribution problems

World GHG EmissionsSSP3: RCP8.5 4.5 W/m2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

An

nu

al G

HG

em

issi

on

s (G

tC e

qu

iv)

Illustrative only: note attribution problems

World GHG EmissionsSSP1: 5.7 4.5 W/m2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

An

nu

al G

HG

em

issi

on

s (G

tC e

qu

iv)

Illustrative only: note attribution problems

World GHG EmissionsSSP1: 5.7 4.5 W/m2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

An

nu

al G

HG

em

issi

on

s (G

tC e

qu

iv)

Illustrative only: note attribution problems

2.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

Cum

. GH

G e

mis

sion

s, G

tC

GD

P lo

sses

, %

Radiative Forcing, W/m2

SSP3

SSP1

Emissions and Costs 2000-2100

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

Mitigation costHIGH LOWMitigation Cost

(GDP losses)

BL (8.5 W/m2)

Increasing socio-economic challengeto mitigation & adaptation

SSP3 (HIGH) SSP1 (LOW)SSP2 (MEDIUM)Cl

imat

e Si

gnal

Mit

igat

ion

Chal

leng

e

BL (7 W/m2)

BL (5.7 W/m2)

4% 1.5%2%

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

Mitigation costHIGH LOW

BL (8.5 W/m2)

Increasing socio-economic challengeto mitigation & adaptation

SSP3 (HIGH) SSP1 (LOW)SSP2 (MEDIUM)Cl

imat

e Si

gnal

Mit

igat

ion

Chal

leng

e

BL (7 W/m2)

BL (5.7 W/m2)

GDP difference ~ 200%

4% 1.5%

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

ImpactHIGH LOWPopulation at risk of hunger

Clim

ate

Sign

al

Ada

ptat

ion

Chal

leng

e

Increasing socio-economic challengeto mitigation & adaptation

SSP3 (HIGH) SSP1 (LOW)SSP2 (MEDIUM)

400-450 billion0 billion

550 billion

RCP 8.5SRES-A2

RCP 6.0SRES-B2

RCP 4.5 SRES-B1

RCP 2.6

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

Residual ImpactHIGH LOWSRES and RCPs

Clim

ate

Sign

al

Ada

ptat

ion

Chal

leng

e

Increasing socio-economic challengeto mitigation & adaptation

SSP3 (HIGH) SSP1 (LOW)SSP2 (MEDIUM)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l Glo

bal P

olic

y Co

sts

(201

0-20

30)

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level

At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level

At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level

Total Policy Costs (% GDP) and Synergistic Effects

CC – Climate ChangePH – Pollution & HealthES – Energy Security

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l Glo

bal P

olic

y Co

sts

(201

0-20

30)

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level

At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level

At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

Total Policy Costs (% GDP) and Synergistic Effects

CC – Climate ChangePH – Pollution & HealthES – Energy Security

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

Increasing socio-economic challengeto mitigation & adaptation

SSP1 SSP3SSP2Cl

imat

e Si

gnal

Mit

igat

ion

Chal

leng

eSSP4 SSPn…

Large ensemble useful for understanding uncertainty & robustness (heuristics across or within cells)

Main trade-offs:Limited comparability and

internal consistencyHow to exchange information

and to conduct joint INTEGRATED IAV/IAM analysis (requires guidance)

Difficult (impossible?) to communicate