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11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009 Some results from operational verification in Italy Adriano Raspanti – Angela Celozzi David Palella
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Some results from operational verification in Italy
Adriano Raspanti – Angela Celozzi David Palella
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Introduction
System: Versus 1.0 + patch 0.1Parameters: 2T,2Td, 10m WS, TC, P, MSLP
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Scales used for PLOTS
PrecipitationFBI max 3 min -0.1 ETS max 0.5 min -0.1
Temp Celsius Deg. max 6 min -3Tdew Celsius Deg. max 6 min -3Mslp hPa max 4 min -1 Wspeed m/s max 3 min -2CLCT % max 50 min -25
Introduction
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Verification
COSMOME COSMOIT CROSS MODEL COSMOME VS ECMWF CROSS MODEL COSMOME VS COSMOIT FEW CONDITIONAL VERIFICATIONS
NP 3d optimized vs NP height optimized
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Temperature CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
DP Temperature CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
MSLP CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Wind Speed CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Total Cloud Cover CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Precipitation +06h FBI CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Precipitation +06h ETS CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Precipitation +12h FBI CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Precipitation +12h ETS CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Precipitation +24h FBI CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Precipitation +24h ETS CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMO-IT - Temperature
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMO-IT DP Temperature
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMO-IT MSLPressure
Clear problem with MSLP increasing fast with the step
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMO-IT Wind Speed
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMO-IT Total Cloud Cover
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
CT-Prec +06 Fbi and Ets
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
CI - Prec+12 Fbi and Ets
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
CI - Prec +24 Fbi and Ets
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF Temperature
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF Dew Point Temperature
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF Mean Sea Level Pressure
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF Total Cloud Cover
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF –Wind Speed
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF –Precipitation SON - FBI
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF –Precipitation SON - ETS
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF –Precipitation DJF - FBI
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF –Precipitation DJF - ETS
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF –Precipitation MAM - FBI
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs ECMWF –Precipitation MAM - ETS
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs COSMOIT –2mT
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs COSMOIT –Prec DJF - FBI
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs COSMOIT –Prec DJF - ETS
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs COSMOIT –Prec MAM - FBI
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
COSMOME vs COSMOIT –Prec MAM - ETS
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Conditional VerificationTemperature with Sky clear from Model
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Temperature CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Conditional VerificationTemperature with Sky clear from Obs
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Temperature CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Conditional VerificationTemperature with Total Cloud Cover from
Model
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Temperature CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Conditional VerificationTemperature with Total Cloud Cover from
Obs
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Temperature CM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
NPho
NP3D
Temperature – MAM 09 Dew Point Temp.– MAM 09
Nearest Point 3D optimized vs
Nearest Point height optimized
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
NPho
NP3D
MSLP – MAM 09 TCC– MAM 09
Nearest Point 3D optimized vs
Nearest Point height optimized
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Nearest Point 3D optimized vs
Nearest Point height optimized
NPho
NP3D
Wspeed – MAM 09
Conclusion for 1 Seasons
New COSMO algorithm has positive (on T) or neutral impact on the scores
Maybe a slightly negative on Wspeed
More physically coherent
Should be use for T and TD at least. More investigation about Wspeed.
TC better represented by 30km of radius circle (mean all over the points
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Some Conclusions
Cosmo-ME: -2mT and 2Td generally too cold but MAE has good value in general- MSLP usual problems with a better result in MAM and JJA- Ws geerally good with underestimation in MAM and JJA- TC Clear diurnal cycle with ME too positive maybe a systematic bias - Precipitaattion: FBI around one up to 20 mm for 6,12 and 24 h CP except for JJA where results are worse. ETS generally good for lower threshold
Cosmo-IT : -2mT and 2Td generally ok maybe a bit too cold but MAE has good value in general- MSLP usual problems as COSMO-Me- Ws good with light underestimation - TC Clear diurnal cycle with ME too positive- Precipitation: tendency to overestimation but not strong for all cumulation period. More problem in MAM
11° COSMO General Meeting – Offenbach 07-11 Sept 2009
Some Conclusions
Cosmo-ME vs ECMWF: -CM Continuous parameters have less diurnal cycle. TD and TC show an higher bias than IFS- MSLP for IFS doesn’t have the problem of COSMO-Me- Preicpitation: FBI better than IFS, ETS depends more on thresholds and period
Cosmo-IT vs Cosmo- Me :
- Results are quite comparable. 2mT and 2dpT better than C, but Ws is overestimated.-Precipitation: tends to be more overestimated than CM. Application of new method cold give an advantage to CIT
Conditional Verification:
-The model seems to have an internal coherence both for SC or TC case- Worse behaviour when the filter are used on OBS for SC, clearly better for TC.
