STRATUS CONSULTING

Some Thoughts on Adaptation in Light of Uncertainty

Joel B. Smith

Stratus Consulting Inc.

Boulder CO

Jsmith@stratusconsulting.com

July 30, 2014

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What is Certain

• The climate IS changing

• At best we know the direction of change in some key variables

• Magnitudes are uncertain

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Would be Best if We Could React to Climate Change

• Design systems to be responsive to changes in the environment

• Flexibility

• Adaptive Management

• That leave us exposed to events that cause– Catastrophic impacts– Irreversible impacts– Missed opportunities

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One of the Challenges of Proactive Adaptation

• Waiting for the perfect forecast

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One of the Challenges of Adaptation

• Waiting for the perfect forecast

• I’ve been doing this for 25 years and have not seen the projections narrow

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We Get Wrapped Up in This Notion of Optimization

• Optimization is very difficult considering uncertainties about climate and future socio-economic conditions

• We should think about reducing vulnerability to climate at a reasonable price– Take the steps that are prudent and

affordable

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In Many Cases We Make This Harder Than it Ought to be

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In Many Cases We Make This Harder Than it Ought to be

But many adaptation decisions are discrete – and that makes

them easier to implement

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Culverts I

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Culverts II

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Left Hand Canyon

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Considerations

• Benefits

• Costs

• Feasibility

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Adaptation: You Do What You Can

• Plan for more intense heat waves

• Plan for sea level rise

• Plan for bigger floods

• Plan for more intense droughts

• Make the affordable and prudent investments that buy additional protection or resilience

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Failure IS an Option

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Questions?

jsmith@stratusconsulting.com