OregonDisclaimerThe views expressed in this presentation are the views of

the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the

State of Oregon, the Governor or the Legislature.

Southern Oregon in RecoveryJanuary 30, 2014

Office of Economic Analysis

Josh Lehner

Oregon’s Recovery has been

Uneven but Gaining Steam

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Columbia Gorge

Portland MSA

Northeast Oregon

Oregon Statewide

North Coast

Willamette Valley

Southeast Oregon

Sourthern Oregon

Central Oregon

South Coast

Employment by Region Over the Great Recession

Recession Losses Dec '13 Relative to Peak

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Private Sector Growth in Oregon

Portland All Other Oregon

Housing and Government…

7.3%

15.5%

7.6%

16.4%

8.3%

21.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Housing Government

Industrial Structure, 2012

Metro Oregon Nonmetro

… Are Coming Back Online…

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Medford Employment GrowthYear-over-Year, QCEW

Housing

Government

Other Private

… and Making Up Lost Ground

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13

Private Sector EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted, 3 Month Moving Average

Oregon

Medford

Bend

Not Just in Oregon

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Private Sector Growth Picking UpY/Y, 3MMA, QCEW

U.S. Hardest Hit Housing Metros AZ:

Flagstaff, Phoenix, Prescott, Tucson, Yuma

CA: Bakersfield, Chico, El

Centro, Fresno, Hanford, Los

Angeles, Madera, Merced, Modesto, Napa, O

xnard, Redding, Riverside, Sacramento, Salin

as, San Luis Obispo, Santa

Rosa, Stockton, Vallejo, Visalia, Yuba City

FL: Cape

Coral, Deltona, Jacksonville, Lakeland, Miami

, Naples, Ocala, Orlando, Palm Bay, Panama

City, Port St Lucie, Punta Gorda, Tamp

ID: Boise

MD: Hagerstown

MI: Detroit, Flint

NV: Carson City, Las Vegas, Reno

OR: Bend, Medford

UT: St George

VA: Winchester

The Housing Stall?

7

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Single Family Housing PermitsYear-over-Year Growth

Housing Metros US ex Housing MSAs

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Interest Rates Slow Housing's Rebound

Mortgage Rate -->30 Yr Fixed

<-- Housing MetrosPermit GrowthDifferential

Housing Outlook is Bright

Checking in on Recovery

• Industrial Diversification

• Growth pattern is encouraging

• Housing and related will rebound in 2014 and 2015

• Manufacturing– Only 10-15% of locales

across U.S. have regained manufacturing employment

Quality of Jobs

High-Wage– Management, Health

Practitioners, Legal, Computer & Math, Arch & Engineering, Business & Finance, Scientists

Upper Middle– Construction, Installation &

Repair, Protective, Arts, Design, Entertainment, Teachers, Community Service

Lower Middle– Production, Admin

Support, Transportation, Health Support, Sales

Low-Wage– Agriculture, Building

Maintenance, Food Prep, Personal Care

The Region is Resilient…

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12

Employment Index, 2000 = 100Recession Oregon Southern Oregon

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

Peak 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

% J

ob

Lo

ss f

rom

Pe

ak E

mp

loym

en

t

No. Years from Employment Peak

Southern Oregon's Employment Loss by Recession

Early 80s

1990

2001

Current

…But Growth Varies

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Pea

k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Employment and the Great RecessionJob Loss Since Pre-Recession Peak

Josephine Jackson Oregon

Service Growth Dominates

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Total Nonfarm Total ex Services

Professional & Business

Education & Health

Leisure & Hospitality

Employment Growth, 2001-2013

Oregon Jackson & Josephine Coos & Curry Douglas & Lane

As Economic Drivers Change Statewide

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Changing of the GuardEmployment, 1976-2013*

Recession Forest Sector High Technology

SIC to NAICS Series Break

Jump due to more

data availability

(plus growth)

Wood Products, 1978

High Technology, 2012

Migration Matters and is

Currently Missing

15

Migration Patterns

16

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

Net Migration as Share of Non-Migration Population

IRS Exemptions, 2007-08 to 2009-10

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

California Washinton Other

Sh

are

of

No

n-m

igra

nt

Po

pu

lati

on

Oregon Net Migration PatternsIRS Exemptions, 2007-08 to 2009-10

Californians Prefer Rain

17

Why Do People Move?

18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All Movers Between States

Within State From Another State

To Washington

To All Other States

U.S. Oregon

Reason for MovingCurrent Population Survey, 2000-13

New Job/Transfer Housing Better Life Other FamilyFamily Status College Disaster Job RelatedOther Retired

Housing: cheaper housing, other

housing, new or better

housing, want to own and not rent

Better Life: change of

climate, easier commute, health

reasons, better neighborhood

Family Status: change in marital

status, establish own household

Disaster: foreclosure or

eviction, natural disaster (Katrina)

Job Related: other job related, to

look for work

Home Equity

19

-0.1

0.4

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.4

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Net Migration and Home Prices

Net Migration (L) CA to OR Home Price Index (R)

1 2

$595,400

$467,300

$383,900

$246,100

$242,300

$231,800

$181,400

$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000

San Francisco

Los Angeles

California

Oregon

Medford

Grants Pass

United States

Median Home ValuesAmerican Community Survey, 2008-12 Estimates

Economic Opportunity

20

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Oregon Economy and PopulationNet Migration Unemployment Rate Difference (CA minus OR)

Demographics

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

<5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Age Structure

U.S. Oregon Jackson & Josephine

School Age Root Setting

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Under 20 Prime Working Age (25-54)

Population Growth 2010-2025

Oregon Jackson Josephine

1 – 6

7 – 12

13 – 18

19 – 24

25 – 30

31 – 36

Critical Condition Counties

Source: Oregon Employment Department

Southern Oregon Outlook

Boosting Growth

• Short Term

– Housing rebound

– Migration returns

– Timber

• Long Term

– Industrial structure

– Strategic location

– Quality of life

Restraining Growth

• Short Term

– Public sector

– Replacing timber payments

– Housing stall

• Long Term

– Demographics

– Timber

– Demographics

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For More Information

www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com

@OR_EconAnalysis

Employment Department

www.qualityinfo.org

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