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Modeling Human Response to

Threats and DisastersJohn H. Sorensen

Oak Ridge National LaboratoryMay 29-30, 2003

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Major Modeling Thrusts in

Disaster Research

Warning Response Warning Diffusion

Evacuation Behavior Protective Action Effectiveness Psycho-Social Impacts

Intelligent Consequence Management

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Warning Response Research

Started in the 1950s Driven by the shadow of nuclear war

If we sound the sirens, what will people do? Series of studies - tornado, hurricane, flood,

explosion, air raid sirens, alien invasions Major findings

People seek more information People converge on event

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Warning Response Process

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Factors Increasing Response

Receiver Characteristics Visual and other cues

Family and network Female Younger Majority High SES Non-fatalistic

Sender Characteristic Message source

Message channel Message style

Clear Specific

Accuracy Certain Consistency

Message Content

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Alternative Responses toNatural and Technological

Hazards Do nothing/ denial Confirm warning/ seek information

Evacuate/ temporary relocation Seek protective shelter/ stay home/ isolation Respiratory protection

Decontaminate Seek medical attention Help others

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Modeling Diffusion of Warning

3025201510500.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

SIRENS

TONE ALERT

TELEPHONE

MEDIA

SIRENS/TONE ALERTS

SIRENS/TELEPHONES

Time (min)

P o r t i o n r e c e

i v i n g w a r n

i n g s

Diffusion Of Warnings

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240180120600

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

SIRENS

ROUTE

INFORMAL

MEDIA

Normalized Warning Diffusion by Source

Time

C u m u l a

t i v e

P e r c e n

t

1 am 2 am 3 am 4 am

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240230220210200190180170160150140

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sirens

Simulated Si ren

Simulated Vs Observed at Nanticoke

Time

2:20 3:00 3:30 4:00

C U M

. %

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1201008060402000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Area OneArea Two

Area Three

Mobilization Time By Order of Evacuation

Time (min)

C u m u

l a t v e

P e r c e n

t

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PROTECTIVEACTION

EFFECTIVENESS

ACCIDENTSCENARIO

DECISIONTO

WARN

WARNINGSYSTEM

DISPERSIONCODE

DOWN-

WINDCONCENTRATION

METCONDITIONS

EXPECTEDDOSE

PROTECTIVE ACTION EFFECTIVENESS MODEL

PROTECTIVEACTION

HUMANRESPONSE

DOSEREDUCTION

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Intelligent Consequence

Management New sensor networks or links to existing sensor

networks designed to detect and monitor thethreats of concern

High-speed communications and data exchange Real-time simulation models running on high-

speed machines

Faster than real-time predictive capabilities Advanced decision support tools that can process

data and simulation outputs into a format useful todecision-makers

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ORNL LDRD

Dynamic evacuation modeling Utilize deployable road sensor tape or

existing monitors First evacuation model with dynamic traffic

assignment

Can update simulations using real time data Linked to GIS

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Alerting Sensor Sound Preparedness Alert

Intelligent Consequence Management Architecture for Rad/Chemical Incident

Notify Emergency Response Team

Activate Monitors Choose Protection Plan

ProtectionAction ES

ProtectiveActionLibrary

Data Archive

DispersionScenarioLibrary

Evacuate Go To Safe Room

Generate Evacuation Plan Generate EvacuationTo Safe Room Plan

Distribute Plans(Electronically)

ClassifyEvent

Activate WarningWith EvacuationInstructions

RT Traffic Counters

DataArchive

Generate Sampling Plans

Generate Search & Rescue Plan

Distribute to EmergencyResponse Team

Generate EmergencyResponse Plan

Send in Response Team

Initiate Search & Response

Initiate Sampling

Initiate Decontamination

Activate FieldMonitoring

Send Data

Outdoor DispersionModel

Run Evacuation andShelter Models

System componentsto be tested are inred

AccidentLibrary

DamageAssessment

Run EconomicModel

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Major Questions

How will warnings be issued to publics once a bioevent is identified?

To what degree will human behavior in a bioevent be similar to other hazards?

Will bio events elicit a different types of humanresponse than observed for other hazards?

What are the relevant parameters to model in a bioevent?