South East Asia North East Asia -...

… Australia’s manufacturing sector activities contracted further … … France’s total national debt represents 95.1% of GDP …

South East Asia

Indonesia to impose a ceiling on interest rates that bigger banks can offer to fixed-deposit holders after an “interest rate war” raised rates to unreasonable levels. Banks with core capital of more than IDR30 trillion (US$3.13 billion) can only offer a maximum of 9.5%, or 200 basis points above the central bank’s reference rate. For lenders with core capital of between IDR5 trillion and IDR30 trillion, the maximum rate is 9.75%.

Thailand’s overall Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) contracted 2.7% y-o-y in August, amid improved outlook. The MPI expanded 2.6% m-o-m. The index for shipment of goods rose by 0.9%, while the production utilisation capacity rate was 60.29%. Industries that contributed to the fall in the index were automobiles, oil refining, sugar, and garments and accessories.

The detailed breakdown of Malaysia’s reserves remains usable and unencumbered. Earlier this month, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) reported Malaysia’s international reserves stood at US$132 billion as at Aug 29. BNM said the reserves position was sufficient to finance nine months of retained imports and was 1.2 times the short-term external debt.

Price of Singapore’s private residential properties slipped for the fourth straight quarter. The overall Private Residential Property Price index fell 0.6% in Q3, after slipping 1% in Q2. Prices of landed properties fell 1.7%, after falling by the same magnitude in Q2.

Total investment pledges approved by the Board of Investments (BOI) and Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) dipped by 1.2% to P393.6 billion in the first eight months of 2014, from the P398.3 billion recorded a year ago. The decline was due to the lack of big-ticket projects seen in the same period last year.

Credit for property and high-tech industries prompted a surge in lending by Vietnam’s banks in September, making the country’s annual target of 12-14% “absolutely reachable”. Loan growth since the end of 2013 rose sharply from a sluggish 4.5% at end-August to 7% at present. Lending was slow due mainly to state debt, troubles in processing assets used as collateral, and failure to properly promote a scheme aimed at helping businesses secure loans.

North East Asia

China will relax mortgage rules for second-home buyers to shore up its cooling housing market, taking one of the biggest steps this year to lift slackening economic growth. With the changes, second-home buyers can now get a 30% discount on their mortgage rates, a privilege previously limited only to first-home buyers. Down payment levels would also be cut to 30% from 60-70%.

Japan’s industrial production dropped 1.5% m-o-m in August. The index of output at factories and mines stood at 95.5 against the base of 100 set in 2010, while the index of industrial shipments retreated 1.9% to 94.1. Inventories gained 1% to 112.7, compared to the previous month’s reading.

Japan’s unemployment rate fell to a three-month low

of 3.5% in August, from a 3.8% retraction in July. The number of people unemployed dropped by 400,000 in the recording period, marking the 51st straight drop from year-earlier levels.

South Korea’s consumer prices grew at the slowest pace in seven months in September due to falling prices of factory goods and the stabilization of farming goods costs. The country’s consumer price index rose 1.1% y-o-y in September, decelerating from August’s 1.4% gain.

South Korea's exports increased from a year earlier in September, with imports grew at a slightly faster pace. The outbound shipments came to US$47.69 billion last month, up 6.8% y-o-y.

Average compensation per Taiwanese employee came in at NT$636,000 (US$20,880) in 2013, with workers in electricity, gas, finance and insurance sectors earning higher than average while those in education earned relatively less.

Australasia

Activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector has contracted further in September, as the winding down of the car industry overshadowed a big fall by the Australian dollar. Ai Group’s performance of manufacturing index slipped 0.8 points to 46.5 points in the month, from a reading of 47.3 in August.

Research & International Division

1/10/2014

Businesses in New Zealand are experiencing a cash flow boost from the country’s strong economic performance, with the average time taken for invoices to be paid falling to the fastest Q2 level on record. With the economy growing at 0.7% in Q2, businesses have demonstrated a greater capacity to manage their finances and pay their expenses on time.

Indian Sub-Continent

India’s central bank left all key rates unchanged, due to increased risks to inflation and external situation especially on the geopolitical concerns about West Asia. The short-term lending rate (repo) rate stands at 8%, and the cash reserve requirement of banks at 4%.

India’s total external debt stood at US$450.1 billion at end-June, up US$7.9 billion or 1.8% from end-March. The rise was mainly due to increase in commercial borrowings and deposits mobilised from non-resident Indians.

India’s eight core industries such as coal, electricity, crude oil, cement and steel grew at 5.8% in August, compared to 4.7% during the corresponding month of last year.

Indian state-run fuel retailers reduced the fuel’s price by approximately 54 paise a litre, excluding state taxes, marking the fourth cut since April 1. But the wait for a much-anticipated reduction in diesel price, the first in four years, got longer due to the poll code and lack of clarity on whether it requires the Cabinet’s approval. The poll code did not apply to petrol because its pricing has been deregulated since January 2013.

India’s business with ASEAN countries is only 30% of total ASEAN trade even as the thrust is on increasing business through infrastructural development connecting important trade points. The Shipping Corporation of India will be starting connectivity between eastern region of India and Yangon in Myanmar from next year. The government is focusing on increasing the number of ‘Visa on Arrival’ from ASEAN countries, increasing duration of stay and enhancing the multiple entry schemes.

Middle East and North Africa

Electricity and gas prices in Turkey were increased by 9%, effective for three months starting Oct 1, after two years of no increase, blaming the increased depreciation of the lira.

Qatar’s economic growth picked up slightly to 5.7% on an annual basis in Q2 as robust non-oil activity outweighed a decline in the hydrocarbon sector, with double-digit rises seen mainly in electricity, construction, trading, hospitality and financial sectors, coupled with an

over 11.3% jump in the country’s population in Q2.

Lebanon to slash taxes on industrial exports by half. The finance ministry was keen on implementing practical measures in a bid to support the ailing industrial sector. Another measure that will also go into effect soon is a government subsidy on the interest on operating capital loans.

Western Europe

The eurozone’s estimated annual inflation rate dropped to 0.3% in September, from 0.4% in August. Among the main components of euro area inflation, services were expected to have the highest annual rate at 1.1% in September, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco, non-energy industrial goods and energy.

The eurozone’s unemployment rate was 11.5% in August 2014, down from 12% in August 2013. Meanwhile, the 28-member EU unemployment rate was 10.1% in August, the lowest value since February 2012. The lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Austria at 4.7% and Germany at 4.9%, and the highest in Greece at 27% and Spain at 24.4%

Unemployment in Germany stagnated in September, as clouds continue to build over Europe’s biggest economy. The unemployment rate stood at 6.7% (sa) in September, unchanged from August. But the number of people registered as unemployed increased by 12,000.

France’s public debt topped the symbolic €2 trillion level for the first time in Q2. The total national debt amounted to €2.023 trillion (US$2.57 trillion), which represents 95.1% of GDP. European Union rules limit debt to 60%of GDP.

German retail sales rose 2.5% m-o-m in August, the steepest increase since June 2011. Retail sales had declined by 1.1% the previous month. On a 12-month basis, business edged by only 0.1% in August compared with the same month last year.

Italy’s youth unemployment rate reached up to 44.2% in August, highlighting the country’s difficult path to recovery. Last month, the jobless level of Italians aged between 15 and 24 on the labour market increased 1% m-o-m and 3.6% y-o-y.

Spain’s public deficit reached 3.43% of GDP at end-June. Spain is targeting a deficit of 5.5% of GDP at year-end, inside a 5.8% goal set by the European Union.

South America

Argentine’s industrial output shrank 2.9% in August as stricter import restrictions in the first month after the country’s debt default hit manufacturers reliant on parts from abroad and recession in Brazil hurt demand for

automobiles.

Brazil’s central government posted a primary budget deficit of BRL10.423 billion (US$4.24 billion) in August. Brazil’s central government experienced four straight months of deficits.

An economic slowdown continues to grip Chile, when the world’s top copper producer posted its biggest monthly drop in manufacturing production in two years and higher jobless figures. The jobless rate for the June-August period rose to 6.7%, while factory output fell 4.9% y-o-y in August.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for November settlement advanced as much as 49 cents, or 0.5%, to US$95.16 a barrel on the

London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Platinum for immediate delivery declined as much as 1.3% to US$1,284.25 an ounce, the lowest price since Oct 5, 2009.

Currency News

The US dollar rose 0.3% to 109.94 yen as of 11:33 a.m. in Tokyo. The yen depreciated 0.3% to 109.93 per dollar as of 11:48 a.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, after earlier touching 110.09, the weakest since August 2008.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.

gas ratioEUR GBP USD AUD Indo RUP YEN MYS RM Phil Peso Thai Baht SGX Index

30-Sep-14 1,217.11 4.15 97.33 23.45 1.62 2.07 1.27 0.90 9531.07 85.87 2.57 35.31 25.39 3,270.99

01-Oct-14 1,206.86 4.12 94.96 23.05 1.62 2.07 1.27 0.90 9569.38 85.89 2.57 35.23 25.43 3,266.42

% Change -0.84 -0.72 -2.44 0.00 0.06 -0.11 -0.44 0.40 0.03 0.03 -0.22 0.14 -0.14

… Singapore’s PMI rebounds to 50.5 in September … … India’s gold imports may go up to 75 tonnes per month …

South East Asia

Indonesia's trade balance swung back to a deficit in

August, a setback for Southeast Asia's top economy as it struggles to recover after a turbulent period. However, while the statistics agency attributed the US$318.1 million deficit to a surge in imports it added that most were capital goods, such as machinery for manufacturing, as opposed to consumer goods.

Indonesia’s inflation rate throughout September 2014 stood at 0.27%. In addition, inflation for the calendar year so far, from January-September 2014, stood at 3.71% and y-o-y inflation stood at 4.53%. The rising price of processed food, cigarettes, beverages and tobacco contributed 0.51% to the inflation rate in September. The price of water, electricity, gas and fuel also contributed to last month's inflation rate by as much as 0.77%.

Thailand’s cabinet approved a Bt364.5 (US$11 billion) budget for the remainder of the year to create jobs and boost incomes to spur economic growth. Bt23 billion will be spent in repairing schools, government buildings and roads and Bt40 billion will go to rice farmers to help them cope with low prices. The government will also speed up approvals for 380 projects worth Bt429.2 billion and investment spending for fiscal 2014 and 2015.

Inflation in Thailand eased for the fourth consecutive month in September, prompting some predictions that the central bank will maintain its easy-money policy late into next year. Thailand's headline CPI rose 1.75% on year to 107.43 in September, compared with a 2.09% y-o-y increase in August. September's headline inflation fell 0.17% from August.

The PMI of Singapore rebounded to a reading of 50.5 for September, reflecting better performance of the manufacturing economy of the republic. The reading represented an increase of 0.8 from that for August.

Malaysia raised fuel prices for the first time in more than a year as Prime Minister Najib Razak seeks to narrow the budget deficit. The price of the widely used RON 95 grade of gasoline rose by 20 cents to RM2.30 (US$0.71) a

liter effective yesterday, while diesel climbed by the same amount to cost RM2.20 a liter. Even with the increases, Malaysia said it will spend more than RM21 billion this year on fuel subsidies.

Myanmar awards licences to 9 banks. Myanmar has granted nine foreign banks, including three Japanese lenders and Australia’s ANZ, approval to operate on a limited basis — a move aimed at spurring foreign

investment in an economy emerging from decades of military rule. The banks will be allowed to set up one branch each and will be able to provide loans to foreign companies but only in foreign currency.

North East Asia

China's international balance of payments is expected to fluctuate in the second half of this year due to more flexible currency exchange, domestic economic recovery and international economic conditions. There are many uncertain and unstable factors for the second half of this year, both in China and outside the country.

Chinese manufacturing activity continued to expand in September while manufacturers' operating conditions saw no improvement against the previous month amid subdued growth momentum. The PMI posted at 51.1 in September, unchanged from August's reading.

Japan's new car sales fell for the 3rd straight month. But strong sales of light vehicles helped ease the decline. The overall just under 519,000 units were sold in Japan last month. That's down 0.8% from a year before. The decline was smaller than in August, when sales plunged over 9%.

Car sales by South Korean automakers jumped in September from a year earlier, fueled by the popularity of new models and consumer demand for steady sellers. The combined sales of five local car manufacturers reached 696,640 vehicles last month, up a solid 8.24% from 643,615 vehicles sold a year ago.


Gold import by India is likely to rise to about 70-75 tonnes per month against the average of 50-60 tonnes at present. Gold imports by India, the world's second largest user of the previous metal, jumped substantially in recent months after the central bank allowed more banks and traders to buy bullion overseas, widening the nation's trade deficit to an 11-month high.


2/10/2014


Algeria's annual rate of inflation stood unchanged at 1.5% in last August, for the third month in a row. In fact, after reaching 2.7% in January 2014, Algeria's annual rate of inflation continued its reducing trend to stand at 2.3% in February, down to 2% in March, to 1.8% in April and in 1.6% in May to stabilise at 1.5% since June 2014.

Egypt aims to pay back US$2-US$3 billion it owes to oil and gas companies by the end of the year, as the government tries to spur new investment to boost supplies. The Arab world's most populous country faces its worst energy crisis in decades. Debt owed to energy companies in Egypt totalled US$5.9 billion in May.

Egypt’s total budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended in June was EG£252 billion (US$35.2 billion), accounting for 12.5 to 12.6% of GDP. Egypt's government had targeted the deficit falling to just 9% of GDP, but it rose due to the lack of implementation of procedures that were supposed to be applied in the last year.

Turkish exports increased by 6.5% last month compared to September 2013, the largest September rise since 1923. Exports totalled US$13.3 billion (TL30.3 billion). Turkey has achieved a positive atmosphere in the EU and is still progressing. The country's exports to the bloc increased by 13% in 2014.

Iran’s exports of natural gas condensates have increased tremendously y-o-y. Iran exported US$6.514 billion worth of natural gas condensates during March 21-September 22, 2014, registering an 85% rise. Some US$1.8 billion of liquefied propane, US$817 million of methanol and US$730 million liquefied butane were exported during the six-month period. The gas condensate exports amounted to 9.223 million tons during the period.

Eastern Europe

Russia could require employees to pay part of the pension, social security and health insurance contributions now paid by their employers, in an attempt to lighten the tax load on business during a sharp economic slowdown. Splitting the burden of social security payments between employers and companies would put Russia in line with globally accepted practice.

Western Europe

French government has detailed a €21 billion cost-cutting plan, the biggest in the country's modern history, saying it will focus on trimming welfare benefits. A significant part of the savings is to be made in France's welfare system. The government will cut social security spending by €9.5 billion, including €3.2 billion from health spending, and €700 million from family benefits. The government also will reduce income taxes for six million families next year, for a total amount of €3.2 billion. The 2015 budget also plans to reduce the number of state employees next year and limit wage increases.

French government targeted to accelerate the GDP of the euroszone's main powerhouse, by 0.6 percentage point next year to stem the rising unemployment trend, while saw efforts to lower the budget gap in tatters due to morose economic climate in the single-currency bloc.

Portugal's unemployment rate remained stable in August at 14%, the same figure as the previous month, down from 16.1% registered last year. Y-o-y, Portugal registered the second highest drop in unemployment in the eurozone, after Hungary, which saw its unemployment rate drop from 10.2% to 7.8% in the last year

Limiting how much banks can lend to home buyers should be examined as sharp price rises fuel fears that another property bubble is building up in Ireland. Property prices in Dublin rose by 25.1% y-o-y in August, as a lack of supply, particularly in the capital, drove price rises nationally to their highest level since the 2006 peak of a property boom.

The number of people claiming unemployment benefit in Ireland fell again in September to bring the jobless rate down to 11.1% from 11.2% in August. Those claiming jobless benefits fell by 4,700 to a seasonally adjusted 374,800, down from 450,000 shortly before Ireland entered a three-year international bailout that it completed last year.

Spain's manufacturing sector expanded for the 10th

straight month in September amid an economic recovery as new orders and companies continued to hire more staff. Markit's PMI of manufacturing firms reached 52.6 in September, down slightly from 52.8 in August.

Spain's public debt ratio will top the symbolic level of 100% of national output next year before it starts dropping in 2017, the government's 2015 budget proposal. The country is set to end the year with a debt ratio equal to 97.6% of the country's GDP. The debt ratio will climb to 100.3% of GDP in 2015 and 101.5% a year after, before dropping to 98.5% in 2017.

North America

US liquefied petroleum output is set to overhaul Saudi Arabia in September or October, for the first time since 1991. In terms of crude oil production, the US is still third behind, with Russia in the lead. US production of liquid petroleum reached 11.5 million barrels per day, on track to outpace Saudi Arabia’s 11.6 million barrels in the next few months.

Investment in Mexico's mining sector will fall slightly this year. Total investment is estimated at US$6.18 billion this year, down from US$6.58 billion in 2013 and a record US$8.04 billion the previous year. Exploration, new projects and equipment purchases are among the areas in which investment will decline. Investment in the sector has been impacted by falls in gold, silver and copper prices.

South America

Chile’s government plans to raise spending 9.8% next year, the biggest increase since the 2009 recession, as it looks to revive an economy growing at the slowest pace in more than four years. The increase is over the expenditure budgeted for this year and will be led by a 27.5% jump in investment. The spending plan will help lift growth to about 3.6%.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for November settlement was 6 cents lower at $94.10 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.7% to $1,222.47 an ounce, and traded at $1,219.25 at 2:11 p.m. in Singapore.

Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.5% to $17.2616 an ounce, extending yesterday’s 1.2% advance.

Currency News

The ringgit advanced 0.6%, the most since Aug. 15, to 3.2525 per dollar as of 10:59 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur.

The U.S. currency fell 0.2% to $1.2646 per euro, after touching $1.2571 on Sept. 30, the strongest level since September 2012.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


01-Oct-14 1,206.86 4.12 94.96 23.05 1.62 2.07 1.27 0.90 9569.38 85.89 2.57 35.23 25.43 3,266.42

02-Oct-14 1,214.84 4.02 94.07 23.40 1.61 2.07 1.28 0.90 9542.90 86.11 2.57 35.21 25.43 3,238.85

% Change 0.66 -2.43 -0.94 -0.33 -0.12 0.28 0.54 -0.28 0.26 0.05 -0.08 -0.01 -0.84

… Australia's trade deficit continued to narrow … … The U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September…

South East Asia

The Indonesian government plans to revise its

export target in the 2014 fiscal year from US$190 billion to US$180.5 billion because of the decreasing price of crude palm oil (CPO), one of the country’s main export commodities. The target could even be lowered farther to below US$179 billion, which was what was achieved through the 2013 fiscal year. The price of CPO has been decreasing since January this year when it was US$920 per metric ton. Currently, the price continued to decrease to US$726 per metric ton.

The Malaysian GST will boost the country's income which in turn will translate into additional public funds towards the people's benefit. Through the revenue from GST, infrastructure, services, education and health, among others, could be further developed. It is expected that revenue from the GST would significantly surpass the RM20 billion incomes from the existing sales and service tax (SST).

Thailand's auto lenders have repossessed three times as many cars as they did a year ago as defaults soar in a flattening economy. The souring auto loans, accounting for a quarter of consumer borrowing, illustrate the growing debt burden shouldered by Thai households. With household debt rising to the equivalent of more than 80% of the country's total output, Thai consumers simply do not have deep enough pockets to spend the country out of stagnation.

Thai rice exports in the first eight months of the year grew significantly, by almost 60% y-o-y, to 6.59 million tonnes, thanks to strong demand in many markets and a high supply from government stocks. The value of rice exports also increased by 22.4% y-o-y to Bt105.83 billion. The demand had increased considerably since July this year, particularly for white rice in some African countries.

Vietnam’s primary industry has jumped 3.17%, industrial and construction 6.12% and services 6.02%. The index of industrial production (IIP) has added 6.7% with agriculture, forestry and aquaculture rising 3.5% y-o-y. The nation’s total exports have amounted to US$109.6

billion, a 14.1% spike, and its total imports have reached over US$107 billion, an 11% y-o-y increase. Vietnam ran a trade surplus of US$2.47 billion, or 2.25% of the total export value.

North East Asia

Unstable weather conditions in summer this year

may have reduced Japan’s real GDP for July-September by 0.2 to 0.6 percentage point. The bad weather is estimated to have pushed down personal consumption by JP¥200 billion to JP¥700 billion in Q2 2014.

Australasia

Australia's trade deficit continued to narrow in August, as the value of exports fell less than those of imports. In seasonally adjusted terms, the difference between exports and imports narrowed by AU$288 million, or 27%, to AU$787 million. Australia last produced a

monthly surplus in March this year. The total value of goods and services exports was down AU$413 million, or 2%, to AU$26.4 billion, while the value of imports fell by AU$701 million, or 3%, to AU$27.2 billion.


Iraq’s oil exports have risen in the past month of September to 2.534 million bpd in comparison to 2.38 million bpd in the previous month of August. Oil exports of September approached the record level achieved in Iraq last May when it registered 2.58 million bpd; it is the highest since 2003.

Kuwait’s inflation rate remained subdued at 2.7% y-o-y in August 2014, the same rate as the previous month. Year-to-date, Kuwait’s inflation rate has increased by 2.7%. Headline inflation is expected to average around 3.0% for 2014 as a whole due to the currently limited pressures seen in the foodstuffs component.

Turkey's CPI increased by 0.14% in September 2014. A slight decrease in food prices, which has been the main driver behind high inflation in Turkey for the past several months, led the inflation rate to marginally go down, while the latest price hike in electricity and natural gas is expected to exert upward pressure on inflation in the short-term.


4/10/2014

Western Europe

The French economy is headed for growth of only 0.4% this year. The French economy should barely grow in third and fourth quarters (+0.1%), bringing growth over the year as a whole to 0.4% in 2014, as in the previous two years, the INSEE said.

Germany's private sector expanded in September for a 17th consecutive month, suggesting Europe's largest economy will grow again in Q3 after shrinking in Q2. Markit's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks growth in the manufacturing and services sectors that account for more than two-thirds of the economy, climbed to 54.1 from 53.7 in August.

The Irish central bank has sharply raised its economic outlook for Ireland but cautioned the government not to soften austerity plans in this month’s budget, the first to be unveiled since the country’s exit from an international bailout. Ireland’s GDP should grow by 4.5% this year, driven by stronger-than-expected exports to its two biggest trading partners, Britain and the United States.

The number of unemployed people in Spain increased by 19,720 people in September. The unemployment rate is rising 0.45% per month bringing the total number of unemployed people in Spain to 4,447,650. The September unemployment figure is the smallest reported rise since 2007.

Rapid growth in Britain's services sector eased slightly in September and a broader measure of private-sector expansion fell to a six-month low. The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to a three-month low of 58.7 in September from August's nine-month high of 60.5.

North America

Canada posted a surprise trade deficit in August on lower exports of cars and crude oil to the U.S. and higher imports. August's trade deficit totalled CA$610 million, ending three consecutive months of surpluses. The prior month's surplus was C$2.20 billion.

The US trade deficit shrank for the fourth straight month in August, falling to the lowest level since January as exports rose to an all-time high. The deficit dropped

0.5% in August to US$40.1 billion, compared to a revised US$40.3 billion in July. Exports increased 0.2% to a record US$198.5 billion, aided by increased sales of petroleum, telecommunications equipment and industrial engines. Imports also rose by a smaller 0.1% to US$238.6 billion.

The U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%. Except August, the job gains have been above 200,000 for seven months. After revision, employment gains were 69,000 more than previously reported in July and August. The labour force participation rate was essentially unchanged at 62.7%.

South America

Peru's sluggish economy is beginning to show signs

of accelerating as new mining operations and infrastructure investment projects pick up steam. The government plans to take additional measures to ensure the economy expands at 6% a year on average. GDP growth was 0.5% faster in August than during the previous month.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for November settlement slipped $1.11, or 1.2%, to close at $92.31 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Gold futures for December delivery fell 1.8% to settle at $1,192.90 an ounce at 1:44 p.m. on the Comex in New York. The metal is down 0.8% this year.

Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.6% to $6,642 a ton ($3.01 a pound) on the LME.

Currency News

The U.S. dollar gained 1.2% to $1.2516 per euro and

reached $1.2501, the strongest since August 2012. The Canadian dollar fell as low as C$1.1271 per U.S. dollar, the least since March 20, before closing down 0.8% at C$1.1244 as of 5:00 pm. in Toronto.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


02-Oct-14 1,214.84 4.02 94.07 23.40 1.61 2.07 1.28 0.90 9542.90 86.11 2.57 35.21 25.43 3,238.85

04-Oct-14 1,191.42 4.04 92.31 22.85 1.61 2.05 1.27 0.89 9542.90 85.52 2.55 35.17 25.51 3,253.24

% Change -1.93 0.50 -1.87 0.00 -0.66 -0.29 -0.95 0.00 -0.68 -0.77 -0.09 0.32 0.44

… The South Korean central government’s debt is on the rise … … Spain‘s debt with the world reached €1.1 billion in 2013…

South East Asia

Indonesia’s foreign reserves were steady in September as Bank Indonesia’s dollar intervention to stabilize the weakening rupiah was offset by inflows of dollar debt sale, time deposits and export earnings. The data shows forex reserves were at US$111.16 billion in September, compared to US$111.22 billion recorded in August. The latest reserves are sufficient to cover 6.5 months of imports or 6.3 months of imports and payment of the government’s external debt.

Moody’s rating expects Malaysia’s fiscal deficit to narrow to 3.1% of GDP this year. It described Malaysia latest move to reduce fuel subsidy as credit positive. The fuel pump price increases are the latest attempt to rein in the fiscal deficit. The government has also cut subsidies for other items, including sugar and electricity, and will introduce a 6% GST in April 2015.

Philippine government subsidies distributed to state-run companies reached PHP3.075 billion in August. It was higher by 71.8% than the PHP1.79 billion disbursed in the same month last year. August’s subsidies were nonetheless 53.6% lower than the PHP6.628 billion released last July.

North East Asia

China will continue its prudent monetary policy,

flexibly use monetary instruments and maintain "moderate" liquidity to achieve reasonable growth in loans and social financing, the central bank said.

Sales of imported foreign-brand vehicles in Japan rose 3.4% in September from a year before to 32,806 units. Sales increased for the first time in six months, and it was the first y-o-y growth after the consumption tax hike in April. Sales of imported foreign-brand vehicles in April-September dropped 9.1% from the same period last year to 124,743 units.

Revenues of Macau's 35 casinos fell 11.7% to MOP25.6 billion in September from MOP29 billion in the same month a year ago. The decline was the steepest

since June 2009. Gambling accounts for more than 90% of Macau's government revenues.

South Korea's foreign reserves fell for two months in a row as the strong dollar trend reduced the conversion value of non-dollar assets such as the European single

currency and the British pound. Foreign reserves were US$364.41 billion as of end- September, down US$3.13 billion from a month ago.

The South Korean central government’s debt is on the rise. The debt is expected to grow this year to ₩496.8 trillion, up 7% from ₩464 trillion last year. The interest on that debt is an expected ₩21.2 trillion won, up 12 % on-year, as state borrowing continues to rise.

South Korea's exports of ICT products rose from a year earlier last month on growing shipments to China. Shipments of ICT products came to US$15.43 billion in September, up 2.2% from the same month last year.

The FDI from China into South Korea more than tripled on-year. In the first nine months of this year, the amount of new FDI pledges to South Korea reached US$14.82 billion, up 37.9% on-year. In contrast, FDI from Japan dwindled by nearly 17% on-year due to a weakening yen and tense relations between Seoul and Tokyo.

Australasia

Australian price pressures showed inflation at its slowest in almost a year in September amid a broad moderation in goods and services costs. The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute's monthly measure of consumer prices edged up 0.1% in September, following an unchanged outcome in August.


India’s external debt jumped US$12.6 billion to US$346.6 billion in Q1 of the current fiscal year. The international investment position (IIP) rose as net claims for non-residents went up, it was reported. Foreign owned liabilities rose US$22.9 billion in Q1 to US$839.3 billion. On an annual basis, the numbers deteriorated much faster as net IIP in June 2013 stood at US$313.4 billion, marking an increase of US$33.2 billion.


7/10/2014


The Oman ‘s sultanate GDP at current prices grew by 4.6% in Q1 2014, compared to the same period last year. Annual inflation stood at 1.1% for the first half of this year. The total assets of commercial banks increased by 11.1% to OMR24.3 billion in July 2014 from OMR21.9 billion a year ago.

Tunisia’s inflation rate reached 5.6% in September 2014, dropping for the second consecutive time by 0.2 points, from 5.8% in August and 6% in July.

Eastern Europe

Russia’s y-o-y inflation hit 8% in September, driven up by the plummeting value of the ruble and Russia's bans on many food imports from the United States and European Union. Rising food prices were the main driver, climbing 11.4% y-o-y in September, up from a 10.3% increase in August.

Ukraine's inflation accelerated to a four-month high of 2.9% in September, driven by surging non-food prices. The September inflation growth rate was higher than the 0.8% seen in August, 0.4% in July and 1% recorded in June. The speed-up in inflation was mainly attributed to faster growth of clothing and footwear prices, which were up 7.9%, and of alcohol and tobacco costs, which rose

3.8%.

Western Europe

German factory orders slumped in August, as the economy is losing momentum in wake of external uncertainties. New orders in manufacturing decreased by 5.7% in August compared to July when orders rose by 4.9%. The drop was the biggest one since early 2009. Foreign orders jumped by 8.4% while domestic orders fell by 2%.

Spain‘s debt with the world reached €1.1 billion in 2013, making it the second most indebted country in the world after the U.S, as recorded by the IMF in its new report. The negative balance of €1.1 billion that includes net foreign assets of Spain is second only to the €4.5 billion in the U.S. and is quite above the third country in debt, Brazil with €750,000 million.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for November settlement fell 1 cent to $92.78 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.4%to $1,203.02 an ounce, and traded at $1,204.44 by 11:08 a.m. in Singapore.

Silver for immediate delivery fell 0.3%to $17.2883 an ounce after prices yesterday climbed 3%, the most since June.

Currency News

The Hong Kong dollar strengthened 0.03% to HK$7.7542 against the greenback as of 9:44 a.m. in Hong Kong, contributing to a three-day advance of 0.12%.

The U.S dollar rose 0.4% to 109.20 yen, following a 0.9% drop yesterday, the most since April 8.

The value of the Russian ruble hit a historic low yesterday when compared with U.S. and European currencies. It took just over 40 rubles to buy one U.S. dollar, or just over 50 rubles to buy a euro, in Monday trading. The central bank said last week it was struggling to keep Russian inflation in check because of U.S. and European sanctions on Russian energy companies. Sanctions were imposed earlier this year because of Russian policies in eastern Ukraine.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


04-Oct-14 1,191.42 4.04 92.31 22.85 1.61 2.05 1.27 0.89 9542.90 85.52 2.55 35.17 25.51 3,253.24

07-Oct-14 1,205.04 3.89 92.63 23.81 1.61 2.05 1.28 0.90 9756.10 85.47 2.55 34.97 25.51 3,246.10

% Change 1.14 -3.71 0.35 -0.02 -0.15 0.57 0.16 2.23 -0.06 0.13 -0.59 0.01 -0.22

… Australia’s central bank left interest rates on hold … … British manufacturing growth slowed in August …

South East Asia

Bank Indonesia left its key rate unchanged at 7.5% yesterday, with policymakers deciding against any changes ahead of president-elect Joko Widodo’s inauguration later this month. Fuel subsidies currently take up a huge chunk of the state budget, and cutting them is a priority for Widodo.

Malaysia’s exports in August increased 1.7% y-o-y, from 0.6% y-o-y in July. Malaysia’s total trade increased to RM123.9 billion in August 2014, from RM118.58 billion recorded in the same month last year. Meanwhile, trade surplus stood at RM3.86 billion as exports expanded 1.7% y-o-y to RM63.88 billion, while imports surged 7.6% y-o-y to RM60.02 billion.

71.3% of households in Malaysia are earning more than RM3,000 per month, an increase from the 61.3% registered in 2012. Although this is an improvement, the government is still not comfortable as 28.7% or 2 million out of the 7 million households in the country are still earning less than RM3,000 per month. The government would still continue to implement the economic transformation agenda to boost the country’s economic growth in order to create new high paying jobs and business opportunities for the people.

The Philippines’ gross international reserves at a four-month low of US$80.43 billion at end-September, slightly lower than US$80.87 billion at end-August. The decrease was due mainly to the revaluation adjustments on the central bank’s gold holdings and other foreign currency-denominated reserves as well as payments for maturing foreign exchange obligations of the national government.

North East Asia

China to decrease steel exports in 2015 following the cancellation of export incentives this year such as tax rebates. China, capable of producing 1.1 billion tonnes of steel a year, boosted steel exports significantly in 2014, mainly due to the government’s preferential policies, including tax rebates for some steel products. China will produce around 830 million tonnes of steel this year and

around the same amount next year.

The Bank of Japan downgraded its assessment of industrial output in October and kept its monetary policy steady yesterday. Industrial output has recently been showing some weakness, due in part to inventory adjustments. In contrast, the previous month production has recently shown some weakness, although it has continued to increase moderately as a trend.

The amount of overdue taxes in South Korea has exceeded ₩7 trillion (US$6.57 billion) despite the government’s stepped-up efforts to crack down on tax evasion. A total of 732,903 people had failed to pay due national taxes as of end-June. Their combined overdue taxes stood at ₩7.26 trillion.

South Korea’s auto exports grew slightly from a year earlier in September on growing shipments to Asian and

North American countries. In September, 195,527 vehicles were shipped overseas, up 3.6% from the same month last year.

Taiwan trade surplus rose 49% y-o-y in September. Taiwan’s September exports came to US$26.43 billion while imports amounted to US$22.93 billion for a US$3.5 billion trade surplus, a 49.1% y-o-y increase. Exports last month registered 4.7% y-o-y growth thanks to a robust overseas market for electronics products. Imports meanwhile rose by 0.2% annually.

More than 57% of Taiwan’s petroleum products were exported to Southeast Asia in 2013 and during the first seven months of this year, making the region

Taiwan’s largest overseas market for such products. China (including Hong Kong) was the second-largest market, the destination for 10% of the country’s petroleum products. During the first seven months of this year, 44.4% of Taiwan’s petroleum products valued at US$11.78 billion were directly exported overseas, up from 43.8% in 2012.

Taiwan’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.73% annually in September but was down 0.03% m-o-m. The CPI also increased 1.32% during the first nine months of the year from the same period a year earlier. The slow growth in consumer prices last month reflected declines in the prices of vegetables and fuel compared with September 2013.


8/10/2014

Australasia

Australia’s central bank left interest rates on hold for the 13th-straight meeting, and suggested they would be kept at a record low of 2.5% for some time. But the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has left interest rates unchanged since August 2013, softened its rhetoric on the local dollar, even as it warned it was still “offering less assistance” to the economy.

New Zealand’s growing economy has helped narrow the operating deficit, which fell to NZ$2.9 billion for the year to June after stripping out investment gains and losses, compared with a shortfall of NZ$4.4 billion in the previous year. Treasury said the improvement was due to a higher tax take, which rose 5%

to NZ$61.5 billion. However, the pace of economic growth slowed, due in part to rising interest rates and sharp falls in dairy prices. Net debt rose from NZ$55.8 billion to NZ $59.9 billion, while spending rose 2% to NZ$71.5 billion.


Business activity in Egypt expanded at a near-record pace in September, with a nascent economic recovery encouraging companies to hire for the first time in nearly 3 years. The government is trying to strike a balance between cutting its deficit whilst reviving economic growth, which fell to 2.1% in the 2012/13 fiscal year and

remains far slower than the pace needed to create enough jobs for a youthful population of 86 million.

The recent record levels of reserve assets held by Saudi Arabia’s central bank is an indicator of the Kingdom’s economic stability and robustness in the face of major financial crises. Reserve assets held by the central bank jumped SAR39 billion (US$10.4 billion) to reach SAR2.84 trillion (US$757.3 billion) in August, the highest level in the institution’s history and representing a 6.5% y-o-y rise.

Business activity growth in the United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sector fell to a four-month low in September as gains in new orders slowed despite

increasing output. The HSBC UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 57.6 points in September from a record high of 58.4 points in August.

Eastern Europe

Russia’s trade surplus widened in the eight months through August from the same period last year as the ruble weakened and President Vladimir Putin banned a range of food imports. The surplus was US$150 billion in January-August, US$13.1 billion higher than in the same period of 2013. Imports fell 5.5% to US$192.5 billion, outpacing a 0.6% increase in exports to US$342.9 billion.

Western Europe

British manufacturing growth slowed in August in m-o-m terms, adding to signs of a cooling in the country’s economic recovery. Output for manufacturing rose 0.1% m-o-m in August, down from 0.3% growth in July. Some of the slowdown to carmakers halting production lines for longer than usual for maintenance.

Britain’s motorists are back in the fast lane after spending £9 billion on new cars last month. Sales figures for the first month with the new 64 registration plate topped 425,000, the highest September sales in a decade. Fuelled by cheap credit, attractive monthly payment plans and the desire to shift to more fuel-efficient new models, more than 2 million new cars have already been sold this

year, a 9% y-o-y rise.

France registered a high budget gap of €94.1 billion at end-August from €93.6 billion reported the same month a year earlier. Fresh financial figures showed a €4.7 billion fall in revenue totalling €186.1 billion due to reduced tax revenue of companies. The total public expenditure in August valued €253.9 billion, down from €257.7 billion reported in the same month in 2013. France eyes 4.4% of budget gap this year and pledges to bring down the figure to 4.3% of the GDP next year mainly via billions of euros cut in public spending.

German factory output slumped in August. Production in industry fell by 4% m-o-m in August. It was the biggest drop since January 2009 when the output was down by 6.9%. Capital goods declined by the most with a rate of 8.8%.The production of intermediate goods fell by 1.9% while consumer goods production decreased slightly by 0.4%. The industrial sector is currently going through a period of weakness.

Greek retail sales by volume rose 4.8% y-o-y in July, after 3.9% increase in June. Greece’s international lenders, the EU and the IMF, expect private consumption to remain weak this year. The country’s leading economic think tank sees household consumption growing by 1% this year, helped by hiring during Greece’s bumper summer tourism season.

Ireland’s central bank proposed restrictions on how much banks can lend to home buyers in a bid to reduce the risk of a new property bubble forming as prices recover rapidly from a crash. The proposed measures will require banks to restrict lending above 80% of the value of a home to no more than 15% of the aggregate value of all housing loans. They will also restrict lending above 3.5 times the borrower’s gross income to no more than 20% of that aggregate value.

Swiss consumer prices fell from a year ago for the first time in seven months in September, dragged down by a drop in the cost of imports and tumbling oil prices. Consumer prices fell 0.1% y-o-y in September, the first negative reading since February. Prices rose 0.1% m-o-m.

North America

US employers advertised the most job openings in nearly 14 years during August, yet their pace of hiring fell compared to July. Svailable jobs rose 230,000 to 4.84 million in August. Restaurants, hotels and health care providers drove much of the increase, which resulted in the most openings since January 2001. But total hiring in August fell 294,000 to 4.64 million, driven by declines in construction and retail. This suggests a potential mismatch between the wages employers are willing to pay and the skills of the workers available to be hired.

South America

Chile’s economy grew at the slowest pace in more than four years in August as manufacturing contracted and mining output stagnated. The Imacec index, a proxy for GDP rose 0.3% from a year earlier. Economic activity expanded 0.5% from the previous month.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for November settlement slid 0.4%, as much as 33 cents, to US$91.78 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.2% to US$1,211.70 an ounce, and traded at US$1,210.55 by 8:10 a.m. in Singapore.

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 3% to close at US$5.0625 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since April 15.

Currency News

Japan’s currency advanced 0.7% to 108.03 per dollar

as of 5 p.m. New York time, after gaining 0.9% yesterday.

The US dollar gained 0.2% to US$1.2647 per euro as of 10:51 a.m. in Tokyo after touching US$1.2501 on Oct. 3, the strongest since August 2012.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


07-Oct-14 1,205.04 3.89 92.63 23.81 1.61 2.05 1.28 0.90 9756.10 85.47 2.55 34.97 25.51 3,246.10

08-Oct-14 1,212.63 3.93 91.74 23.34 1.61 2.05 1.28 0.90 9545.63 85.40 2.55 35.03 25.51 3,224.80

% Change 0.63 1.03 -0.96 0.14 -0.01 -0.20 -0.04 -2.16 -0.09 -0.03 0.20 0.02 -0.66

… China expected to overtake US economy … … German, French falling exports hurts Eurozone …

South East Asia

Cambodia’s garment and footwear exports earned US$3.92 billion over the first eight months of 2014, up more than 7% y-o-y. The latest numbers show a slowdown after y-o-y earnings for the first six months of the year were up 16%. Unions are demanding that the government raise the sector’s current monthly minimum wage of US$100 by US$77. The factories want a more modest US$10 raise.

The Indonesian government has officially approved a 10% increase in the airfare price ceiling to help airlines deal with rising operational costs, but it will soon remove its surcharge policy that was issued in February this year. The new pricing, which will come into effect in November, is expected to see air passengers spending more for their flight tickets.

Manufacture sector in Indonesia grew by 5.49% at the first semester this year, indicating a good prospect of the national industry which exceeds the country's GDP of 5.165%. For the whole year, the official was upbeat on the achievement of the target of 5.7% growth at the sector.

Lao PDR’s total income generated from electricity sales hit more than US$880.9 million (more than 7,100 billion kip) for the 2013-14 fiscal year, a remarkable increase compared to a year before. Of the total, income generated from electricity exports totalling more than 11,332 million kwh reached some US$535.47 million (more than 4,316 billion kip), an increase of 6.62% compared to a year before.

Lao PDR exported its products to ASEAN member countries up to 47.6%, which became the second largest country in the ASEAN behind Myanmar with its export volume of 49.2% in 2013. On the other hands, Laos's import volume from ASEAN member countries stood at 75.8%. As a result, Laos had trade deficit of 28.2%. Laos has been classified the largest country of import share to ASEAN member countries.

Malaysia's economic growth momentum in 2015 is expected to remain resilient and register a growth of between 5% and 6%, said the Ministry of Finance. The growth would be private-led, in line with the government's effort to strengthen the private sector's role in the economy, as well as, driven by improving external demand and resilient domestic economic activity.

The Malaysian government has spent almost half of

the total allocation of RM1.2 billion to implement projects aimed at increasing the coverage of water supply to 100%, especially in urban areas, for the first eight months of this year. The allocation was also aimed at increasing the treated water supply reserves nationwide to 20%. On the other hand the government also continued to focus on rural development by allocating a sum of RM4.1 billion to improve basic infrastructure and amenities.

Philippines exports posted a double-digit growth for the third straight month, on strong demand for electronics, garments, minerals and farm products. Merchandise exports climbed 10.5% to US$5.5 billion in August from US$5 billion a year ago. It brought total

exports in the first eight months to US$40.7 billion, up by 9.2% from US$37.3 billion recorded in the same period last year.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the Philippines declined by 20.6% on year to US$436 million in July. Investments in debt instruments fell by 43.7% on year to US$274 million during the period. This reflects lower lending of parent companies abroad to local affiliates to fund existing operations and business expansion plans in the country.

Vietnam’s domestic plastic industry has achieved high growth in exports but continues to face difficulties arising from a lack of input materials. In Q3 2014, the industry achieved a 17.9% y-o-y increase in the total export value of plastic products to US$2 billion. During the period, export value showed strong growth, posting y-o-y increases of 78.28% for the Myanmar market, 69.19% for the Belgian market and 67.73% for the Swedish market.

North East Asia

China is expected to surpass US with an estimated GDP of US$17.6 trillion by the end of this year, becoming the world's largest economy. The data was released by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the number was calculated at purchasing power parity (PPPs), which was used to compare the size of economies by estimating the real cost of living. IMF estimated US's GDP at US$17.4 trillion; $200 billion lower than that of China.


11/10/2014

Chinese travellers overseas spent much more than foreign visitors in China in the first three quarters. A deficit in tourism revenue stood at some US$77.6 billion from January to September. During the period, 95 million trips were made to China, down 1.5% y-o-y. Meanwhile, 85 million trips flowed out of the country, surging by 16.6%.

Japan’s bank lending in September expanded 2.3% from a year earlier, up for the 35th consecutive month. The average balance of outstanding lending totalled JP¥479.02 trillion. The margin of increase widened from 2.2% for August. The overall lending balance was supported by large-lot loans to power companies, real estate investment trust funds and firms planning to buy other companies.

The number of corporate bankruptcies in Japan in April-September fell 8.3% from a year before to 5,049. Bankruptcies increased mainly in the service sector, due to the weak yen and consumption tax increase, but fell sharply in the construction sector, thanks to a rise in public works projects. Total debts left by failed companies dropped 49.5% to JP¥907.82 billion, slipping below JP¥1 trillion for the first time in 24 years.


India’s industrial production growth slowed down to five-month low of 0.4% in August mainly due to contraction in manufacturing output and lower offtake of consumer goods. The factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), had also grown at a meagre rate of 0.4% in August.


Iran's unemployment rate dropped to a single-digit figure this summer. The number of jobless people dropped to 2.2 million, or 9.5% of the working population, between June 22 and September 22. The unemployment rate among the youth (aged between 16 and 24) reached 22.9%, more than twice the figure for other age groups.

Egypt's urban inflation registered annually increases 11.1% in September 2014, compared with September 2013, due to price hikes of strategic commodities. The headline inflation rate rose by 2% m-o-m in September. Meanwhile, the inflation rate in the period January - September 2014 reached 10%, compared to the same period of previous year.

Turkish industrial production index (IPI) increased by 5.2% in August 2014 compared to August 2013, reaching the highest level since January. Mining and quarrying sector index increased by 11.3%, followed by 7.7% increase of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector and 4.3% of manufacturing

index.

Western Europe

Britain’s construction output fell in August and exports continued to decline, further fuelling further concerns that the UK economy is feeling the effects from the eurozone's economic woes. The construction output fell by 3.9% in August after rising by 1.9% in July.

The economic skies above the eurozone darkened again as a sharp drop in exports from its two biggest economies, Germany and France. German exports contracted by a massive 5.8% in August, the steepest drop since January 2009 causing the trade surplus to shrink to €17.5 billion. While in France’s exports dropped by 1.3%, pushing the trade deficit up to €5.8 billion, the highest figure since January. France’s big trade deficit is

worsening with the U.S. and with Asia, notably because of a decline in Airbus deliveries. The late timing of the summer holidays in August instead of in July had weighed on economic activity in Germany.

Italy's industrial production rose slightly at 0.3% in August, even though output of almost all products grew, led by the consumer goods sector. The increase was led by a 2.3% boost in consumer goods, seen as a key driver of Italy's economic recovery, followed by a 1.6% climb in investment goods and a 0.2% rise in intermediate goods.

Portugal's global trade deficit rose 7% in the three months between June and August. Exports to European Union countries that represent Portugal's main market rose by 3.1% while imports from those countries rose 3.9%. Export growth had driven Portugal's economic recovery that began in the Q2 of last year after a long recession - the worst since the 1970s. But internal demand started is now growing as the country heads toward its first year of economic growth in 2014.

North America

Canada’s unemployment rate fell to nearly a six-year low in September as the economy produced a surprisingly strong 74,000 net new jobs — most of them full-time positions in the private sector. The number of full-time

workers grew by 69,300 last month, compared to 4,800 Canadians who were self-employed. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8% in September the lowest level since December 2008, down from 7% the previous month.

South America

Industrial activity in Argentina dropped 4.9% during August compared to the same month a year ago. This represents its sixth straight fall and a 2.9% decline for the first eight months of 2014. The manufacturing showed a drop of 5.2% compared with July’s data. Industrial activity presented a new fall in the inter-annual period, the sixth

straight fall, and to a great extent because of the strong contraction which continues in the auto industry (34.5%).

Peru kept borrowing costs unchanged as the economy shows signs of improvement after three rate cuts in the past year and a government stimulus package. Policy makers maintained the overnight rate at 3.5%.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for November settlement gained 16 cents to end the session at $90.21 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gasoline for November delivery settled at $2.2575 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, 98.25 cents below the pump price.

Commodity News

Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3%to settle at $1,221.70 an ounce at 1:51 p.m. on the Comex in New York.

Corn futures for December delivery dropped 3.1% to close at $3.34 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Sept. 3.

Currency News

The U.S. dollar fell 0.9% to $1.2628 per euro, the

biggest weekly decline in six months. The Australian dollar weakened 1.1% to 86.86 U.S. cents, paring its gain this week to 0.1%.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


09-Oct-14 1,223.84 3.86 91.62 23.74 1.62 2.06 1.28 0.89 9571.21 84.73 2.56 35.02 25.52 3,252.50

11-Oct-14 1,223.16 3.86 90.21 23.37 1.61 2.05 1.27 0.90 9607.07 84.85 2.56 35.22 25.50 3,223.87

% Change -0.06 0.00 -1.54 -0.19 -0.34 -0.71 0.73 0.37 0.14 0.15 0.55 -0.07 -0.88

… China and Russia have signed a local currency swap … … Land prices in the Saudi Arabia dropped …

South East Asia

The Central Bank of Myanmar plans to allow freely floating interest rates shortly, though initially for US dollar loans only. Current limits on commercial bank loans a ceiling of 13% and a floor of 10% are often criticised as being overly restrictive. In practice most loans are made near the 13% ceiling.

The Philippines government total borrowings in August fell nearly 85% y-o-y. The amount borrowed by the government from local and international sources fell to PHP22.82 billion in August from the PHP148.9 billion recorded a year ago. The total domestic borrowings in August was significantly lower than the PHP147.25 billion in the same period a year ago.

Singapore's economy grew by 2.4% on a y-o-y basis in Q3, the same pace of growth as in the previous quarter. Construction grew by 1.4% on a y-o-y basis, moderating from the 4.1% growth in the previous quarter. The slowdown was mainly due to weaker private sector construction activities.

Fuel wholesalers in Vietnam have cut the retail prices of petroleum products again, start, following a request by the Ministry of Finance. The price adjustment was made amid downward global trends. The ministry requested that the retail prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil be cut by at least VND669, VND878, VND848, and VND724 per litre/kilogram, respectively.

North East Asia

China's trade surplus more than doubled to US$31.0 billion in September, with exports jumping and imports increasing more slowly. Exports from the China rose 15.3% y-o-y to US$213.7 billion, while imports climbed 7% to US$182.7 billion. The surplus was lower than August's record US$49.8 billion. But the rise in exports accelerated from August's 9.4%.

China and Russia have signed a local currency swap worth CN¥150 billion or RUB815 billion, the Chinese central bank said. The swap is set to last three years and can be extended upon expiry.

Japan's wholesale prices rose 3.5% in September from a year earlier for the 18th straight month of increase, but the pace of gain continued to slow amid falling crude

oil prices and the diminishing effects of a weaker yen that has pushed up import prices. The rate of rise was slower than an upwardly revised 4.4% in July and 3.9% in August. The index of corporate goods prices stood at

106.3 against the 2010 base of 100, the central bank said in a preliminary report.

South Korea's exports of farm and agricultural products grew significantly from a year earlier last month on growing shipments to Japan and China. Outbound shipments of agricultural goods came to US$512.4 million in September, up 13.9% from the same month last year.

South Korea's home transactions rose significantly from a year earlier in September, apparently due to the latest government measures to revamp the country's property market. The total number of home transactions spiked 51.9% on-year to 86,186 last month.

South Korea posted the economy’s first-ever trade surplus in the cosmetics sector this year, thanks mainly to a rise in exports to China. In the first eight months of 2014, the country's trade surplus in cosmetics stood at US$147.66 million. The country sold more makeup products abroad than it imported from March to August.

Australasia

New Zealand house sales have fallen 11 consecutive months, with fewer properties put up for sale in the lead-up to the general election and mortgage loan restrictions reducing activity at the lower end of the market. The number of houses sold fell 12% to 5,911 in September from the year earlier month, while sales of houses below NZ$400,000 declined 18%.


India's retail inflation declined for a second straight month in September, but the risks of price shocks are expected to keep the central bank from cutting interest rates anytime soon. Consumer prices rose slower at 6.46% from a year earlier, the lowest since figures were first published in January 2012. Slowing food inflation and

a favourable statistical base led to the decline. In August, retail prices rose 7.73% y-o-y.


14/10/2014

Pakistan government’s total debt surged by 1.6% to Rs16.057 trillion as on August 31, 2014 since borrowing from domestic resources to reduce fiscal deficit continued. The government’s total debt was Rs14.453 trillion on August 31, 2013.


The Egyptian economy grew by 3.7% in Q4 of the last fiscal year, up from 2.5% the previous quarter. Egypt posted GDP growth of 2.2% for the full 2013/14 fiscal year, which ended in June. This was up slightly from 2.1% the previous year.

Land prices in the Saudi Arabia dropped by 9% to reach an average price of SR524 per square meter in Dul

Qaada of the current Hijri year compared to SR573 in Shawwal. The drop in land prices comes on the back of reported news on the possible imposition of fees on white (vacant) lands. The Eastern Region has topped other regions of having the most expensive price of lands at SR1,118 per square meter while the Al-Qasim Region was the cheapest at nearly SR136.

The United Arab Emirates approved a draft federal budget of AED49.1 billion for 2015, almost half of which will go towards social development and welfare. The projected federal spending of one of the world's top crude oil exporters is up from AED46 billion in the original budget for 2014. The UAE federal budget accounts for only around 14% of overall fiscal spending in the UAE. The seven individual emirates, mainly oil-producing Abu Dhabi, make up the rest. Social development and benefits account for 49% of spending. Government services will receive AED20 billion.

Western Europe

The Portuguese government's move to lower personal income tax in 2015 will depend on the country's struggle against fraud and fiscal evasion. Personal income tax surcharge will remain at 3.5% next

year, so the government can guarantee that the country's public deficit will be cut to 2.5% next year after a 4% target this year.

North America

Mexico's revenues from international tourism totalled US$11.13 billion in the January-August period, up 18.1% from the same period in 2013. Foreign tourists generated revenues of US$9.42 billion during the first eight months of last year. International tourist arrivals totalled 19.3 million in the January-August 2014 period, up 19%.

Oil & Gas News

WTI for November delivery slid as much as 91 cents to $84.83 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $85.29 at 2:55 p.m., Tuesday Singapore time.

Commodity News

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,234.77 an ounce at 2:14 p.m., Tuesday in Singapore from $1,235.87 on Monday, when it rose to $1,237.86.

Silver for immediate delivery traded at $17.4844 an

ounce from $17.4881 Monday, when prices rose 0.5%.

Currency News

The Singapore dollar gained 0.2% to S$1.2697 against its U.S. counterpart as of 10:13 a.m., Tuesday local time. UK sterling dropped 0.2% to $1.6056 as of 7:24 a.m., Tuesday London time.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


11-Oct-14 1,223.16 3.86 90.21 23.37 1.61 2.05 1.27 0.90 9607.07 84.85 2.56 35.22 25.50 3,223.87

14-Oct-14 1,233.32 3.91 88.44 22.62 1.61 2.05 1.27 0.90 9595.09 84.27 2.56 35.21 25.50 3,201.96

% Change 0.83 1.30 -1.96 0.04 0.08 0.07 0.32 -0.12 -0.69 0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.68

… Greece achieved primary surplus in the January-September period… … Italy has no intention of tightening its 2015 budget plans …

South East Asia

Lao government has confirmed that 8.11% of total families in the country are living under the poverty line, representing 92,000 families. The estimation confirms that the poverty reduction programme has shown satisfactory progress and resulted in the reduced number of poor families in the country. More than 80,000 families across the country have graduated from poverty since 2013.

Investment pledges approved by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) grew by 6.2% to PHP148 billion in the first nine months of 2014, from PHP139.6 billion a year ago, driven largely by the expansion activities of ecozone locators. Most of the investments are to fund manufacturing projects.

Productivity in Singapore’s construction sector has seen some improvements but it remains short of the government’s target. Steps to improve productivity and cut reliance on foreign labour have seen worksite productivity improve by 1.2% per annum from 2010-2013. But this is still short of the target improvement of 2% to 3% per annum.

Singapore’s central bank kept monetary policy steady yesterday despite the economy’s sluggish growth, signalling greater worry about inflationary pressures than the possibility of a slowdown. GDP rose 1.2% (saar) q-o-q in Q3, according to advance estimates.

Vietnam’s exports to China rose 16.43% y-o-y to hit US$9.83 billion in the first eight months of 2014. This makes the set target of US$15 billion in 2014 feasible, if the export turnover to China is maintained at US$1.25 billion to US$1.3 billion per month during the remaining four months of the year.

North East Asia

China’s consumer inflation slowed in September to a near five-year low, adding to concerns that global growth is cooling fast unless governments take bolder measures

to shore up their economies. The CPI rose 1.6% y-o-y in September, down from 2% in August, mainly due to falling prices for food, fuel and other commodities.

China’s logistics sector showed slower expansion in the first eight months due to shrinking demand amid economic slowdown. The total value of goods transported by logistics services increased by 8.4% y-o-y to CN¥138.1 trillion (US$22.5 trillion). Combined logistics expenditure in the first 8 months period rose 8.6% y-o-y, totalling CN¥6.3 trillion.

Weak demand of steel products continued to weigh down on iron ore prices in China, forcing dealers to stockpile inventories. The China Iron Ore Price Index fell 8.81% m-o-m to reach 282.24 points at the end of September, with imported iron ore recording deeper price declines. In September, price of imported iron ore slumped 10.2% m-o-m while domestic iron ore lost 3.15%.

Japan’s M3 money stock in September increased 2.5% y-o-y, posting the same growth rate for the fourth straight month. The balance of M3 averaged JP¥1.19 quadrillion in September. An increase in bank lending failed to boost the growth rate as more private sector money flowed into the government due to the consumption tax hike and an increase in corporate tax receipts.

South Korea posted a trade surplus for 32 months in a row due to solid export growth. The final figure for trade surplus reached US$3.43 billion in September. Exports, which account for about half of the economy, increased 6.9% y-o-y to US$47.75 billion in September, and imports advanced 8% to US$44.32 billion.

Prices of imported goods in South Korea fell for seven months in a row due to lower global oil prices. In local currency terms, import prices declined 1.2% in September from a month earlier. The prices kept a downward trend since March. The won/dollar exchange rate increased 0.8% m-o-m in September, limiting the further fall of the import prices.

Job growth in South Korea fell to three-month low in September as the jobless rate increased on rising people seeking jobs. The number of those employed reached 25,917,000 in September, up 451,000 from a year earlier. The unemployment rate climbed 0.5 percentage point from a year earlier to 3.2% in September due to an increase in people who seek jobs. The number of people unemployed came to 849,000 in September, up 129,000 from the same month of last year.


15/10/2014

Australasia

Thanks to their houses, Australians are the richest people in the world, the investment bank Credit Suisse reported. The median Australian adult was worth more than US$225,000 in June, well ahead of the second wealthiest population on this measure, the Belgians, at US$173,000. Only 6% of Australians have wealth below US$10,000, compared with 29% in the US and 70% for the world as a whole.


India’s exports rose by 2.73% to US$28.9 billion in September, but trade deficit more than doubled to US$14.2 billion in the month due to a surge in gold imports. Gold imports in the month under review increased manifold to US$3.75 billion, compared to US$682.5 million in same month last year. Overall imports jumped by about 26% to US$43.15 billion.

Pakistan’s trade deficit widened by 45% to US$6.5 billion in Q1 of this fiscal year on back of significant contraction in exports and double digit growth in imports, bringing foreign currency reserves under pressure. Pakistan’s exports contracted by 10.1% in Q1.


Algeria revenues from oil taxes stood at US$23.5 billion during the first half of 2014, sliding 10% in comparison with the same period of 2013.

Western Europe

A decline in services costs drove down France’s prices by 0.4% in September, from a rise of 0.4% in August. On yearly basis, inflation rate inched up by 0.3%. Over the period, services costs fell by 1.6% mainly due to a sharp drop in accommodations services which shrunk by 43.7% while prices of energy decreased by 0.2%.

German inflation remained stable in September, keeping the European Central Bank under pressure to add further stimulus boost the eurozone economy. The annual rate of inflation was 0.8% the same as in August and July. Prices were unchanged compared with August.

The German government insisted that it will not change its economic or fiscal policy. Germany is now pencilling in growth of 1.2% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2015, instead of the previous forecasts of 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively. Geopolitical crises have increased uncertainty in the country and sluggish global growth is weighing on the economy. Nevertheless, domestic economic forces remain intact. Wages and employment were continuing to rise.

Greece has achieved a primary surplus of €2.5 billion, or 1.4% of GDP, between January and September. The primary surplus has surpassed the target of €1.5 billion, or 0.8% of GDP, presented in the government’s mid-term fiscal program. Earlier this month, the country reported a primary surplus of €2.5 billion in the January-August period, sharply up from a primary surplus of €1.2 billion in the same period last year.

Italy has no intention of tightening its 2015 budget plans, despite reports that its budget might be rejected by the European Commission. Italy’s 2015 budget blueprint envisages a cut in the structural budget deficit of just 0.1% of GDP next year, compared with a Commission request for a correction of 0.5%.

Spanish consumer prices fell at a slower pace in September than the previous month, while underlying inflation dipped into negative territory for the first time in more than four years. The CPI had dropped 0.2% y-o-y in September, compared with 0.5% in August, the third

straight monthly decline.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for November settlement fell by US$1.33 to settle at US$83.71 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 9:03 a.m. local time.

Commodity News

Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.7% to US$1,223.95 an ounce, and traded at US$1,226.53 at 2:22 p.m. in Singapore.

Silver for immediate delivery fell 1% to US$17.2122 an ounce, extending yesterday’s 0.6% decline.

Currency News

The Korean won rose 0.2% to 1,062.93 per dollar in Seoul, after weakening as much as 0.4% earlier.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


14-Oct-14 1,233.32 3.91 88.44 22.62 1.61 2.05 1.27 0.90 9595.09 84.27 2.56 35.21 25.50 3,201.96

15-Oct-14 1,222.30 3.84 83.88 21.84 1.62 2.04 1.27 0.89 9599.69 84.40 2.56 35.22 25.53 3,207.05

% Change -0.89 -1.79 -5.16 0.16 -0.40 -0.06 -0.62 0.05 0.15 -0.08 0.05 0.13 0.16

… China's business registrations surge after application streamlining … … UK unemployment rate hits new five-year low at 6% …

South East Asia

Remittances from overseas Filipino workers continued to rise in August as the country continued to enjoy strong demand abroad for its skilled labour. Personal remittances – cash and non-cash – climbed 7.2% to US$2.274 billion in August from US$2.122 billion in the same month last year. This brought the eight-month total to US$17.232 billion, 6.5% higher than the US$16.185 billion recorded in the same period in 2013.

With the number of cars approaching a million in Singapore, the government intends to further lower the vehicle growth rate. For the period from February 2015 to January 2018, the annual vehicle growth rate will be lowered from the current 0.5% to 0.25%. November to January certificate of entitlement quota (COE) will be 11,932 premiums available, or about 3,977 premiums per month. This is about a 5.3% increase on the current quota which is about 3,777 per month.

Singapore’s retail sales increased by 5.4% y-o-y in August this year, largely due to an increase in motor vehicle sales. There was a 13.1% increase in motor vehicle sales in August compared to July. The y-o-y increase for August was also at 49.5%. Furniture and household equipment and recreational goods have suffered the greatest dip in sales.

Singapore’s private housing market regained some momentum in September with buyers reacting warmly to the larger number of new launches. Up to 514 new private homes were launched last month and 648 units were sold, excluding executive condominiums. This was a marked improvement from August, when 399 units were offered.

The prices of consumer goods and services in Vietnam remained the same in spite of the sharp cut in petrol and oil prices this year. This week, and for the seventh time this year, the prices of petroleum and oil products were reduced, with petrol falling to VND22,890 per liter, a 10.7% decrease compared with that in July.

North East Asia

More than 82 million people in China still live on less than about US$1 a day, despite a decades-long boom that made it the second-largest economy. China's

official poverty standard is an annual income of CN¥2,300. The World Bank's own definition of poverty is US$1.25 a day, and China's poor would rise to more than 200 million if “international standards” were applied.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Chinese mainland rose 1.9% in September from a year earlier, standing at US$9.01 billion. The pickup follows a 14% slump seen in August. It is a sign that investors are more confident about the growth outlook in the world's second

largest economy. For the first nine months, the FDI topped US$87.36 billion, down 1.4% from the same period last year, with the decline pace narrowing from the 1.8% registered in the first eight months.

Chinese companies posted a y-o-y growth of 21.6% in their investment overseas during the first nine months of the year, accelerating from the 15.3% rise recorded in the January-August period. China's outbound direct investment (ODI) by non-financial firms reached US$74.96 billion in the first nine month, up 21.6% from one year earlier. In September alone, the ODI surged 90.5% from one year earlier to US$9.79 billion.

China set the 2015 import quota for sugar at 1.95 million tonnes, remaining unchanged from the past decade. The country has kept the same sugar import quota according to the World Trade Organization rules since 2004, even after becoming the world's major sugar consumer in recent years. Imports last year were equal to about one-third of domestic sugar output.

China's producer price index (PPI) dropped 1.8% y-o-y in September. The PPI declined for the 31st straight month and in a faster pace than the previous month, marking existing pressures from slowing economic growth. Factory prices of production materials went down 2.4% in September, contributing 1.8 percentage points to the PPI drop, while factory prices for consumer goods gained

0.1%. In the first nine months, the country's PPI dropped 1.6% y-o-y.

China has experienced a boom in new company registrations since streamlining the process for starting business in March. About 2.65 million new companies were registered in the first nine months of 2014, rising 52.44% from the same period last year. The registered capital of these new companies totalled CN¥13.42 trillion (US$2.18 trillion), up 99.76% y-o-y. By the end of September, the number of all types of registered market entities in China came in at 66.7 million, with registered capital totalling CN¥121.95 trillion.

South Korea's economy is facing numerous risks,

including protracted low growth and low inflation, which requires the government to keep up its efforts to reinvigorate the economy by stimulating consumption and corporate investment, the finance minister said.


16/10/2014

South Korea’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 2% yesterday from 2.25% in August on the grounds of a sluggish global and domestic economy. The government has been widely seen as pressuring the central bank to keep lowering rates to boost the economy.

A hike in Korean tobacco prices next year could bring in nearly ₩3 trillion (US$2.82 billion) in additional tax revenue for the government. The finance ministry expects that a ₩2,000 hike in the price of a pack of cigarettes could bring in ₩2.85 trillion in extra tax revenue next year.

Australasia

New Zealand manufacturing accelerated in September, its fourth monthly increase after a mid-year lull, with a pick-up in agricultural production stoking activity in the food and beverage sector. The BNZ-Business NZ performance of manufacturing index rose 1.1 points to 58.1 in September, and was up from 53.7 in the same month a year earlier.


Egypt announced 7.3% temporary tariffs to protect domestic steel manufacturers. The 7.3% tariffs, with a minimum of EGP290 (US$45.5) per ton, will be raised

for a maximum period of 200 days. Egypt’s steel manufacturers have recently complained of increasing imports from Turkey, the world’s top exporter of reinforcing steel. The harsh decline in fuel quantities was the key reason behind the price hike.

Egyptian exports registered US$1.633 billion in September compared to $1.9bn in August, representing a 14% decrease. However, the total value of 2014 exports marked US$16.8 billion at the end of September, recording a 2.2% increase compared to US$16.4 billion during the corresponding period last year.

Morocco’s growth rate is expected to average 2.8% in the Q4 of 2014, compared to 2.6% in Q3. With a 2.4% decline of agricultural value added and a 2.6% increase of non-agricultural activities, national economic growth is expected to slightly accelerate to 2.8% in the Q4 of 2014.

Kuwait's government is moving towards cutting some of the energy subsidies which drain billions of dollars from the state budget every year, in a politically sensitive reform which could start to curb waste and overuse of its oil resources. The government will be hiking prices of diesel and kerosene more than threefold.

The number of unemployed Turkish increased by 0.7 percentage points in July compared to the previous month. The unemployment rate was realised as 9.8%.

The number of unemployed aged 15 and over rose to 2.867 million in July 2014, showing an increase of 213,000. Although Turkey’s economy has been creating jobs, the number of people looking for work had grown faster than the economy can employ.

Turkey’s current account deficit in August was US$2.77 billion. Turkey's current account deficit for the January–August period also dropped by US$16.2 billion to US$29.5 billion. In the long term, inflation should be reduced below 5%. The main obstacles facing growth are inflation and the current account deficit. Fiscal and monetary tightening will be maintained in the coming period.

Eastern Europe

Russia's industrial output growth picked up in September, boosted by a rise in manufacturing sector production. The data showed industrial production grew 2.8% in September after being unchanged in August. In monthly terms, industrial output rose by 2.7% in

September after shrinking 0.2% in the preceding month. Russia's food industry was expected to see a rise in workload following decision to ban food imports from states that sanctioned Russia.

Western Europe

The rise in Austrian prices continued to slow in September as the price for clothing fell. Austria's inflation rose 1.6% on an annual basis in September. In August, prices increased 1.7% on an annual basis. The main drivers for inflation were price increases for goods in the category housing, water and energy and apartment rents.

British unemployment rate dropped to 6% in the three months to August 2014, down from 6.1% in the three months to July, and recording the lowest level since late 2008. There were 1.97 million unemployed people in the three months to August, down 154,000 from the previous quarter. Claims for unemployment benefit, however, fell by 18,600 to totally 951,900 in Sept. from the previous month. Meanwhile, in the same period, British employees' total pay was merely 0.7% higher than a year earlier.

Italy and China signed business deals worth about €8 billion (US$10 billion) in sectors ranging from energy to engineering, deepening Beijing's commercial ties with

the euro zone's No. 3 economy. China has already spent well over €5 billion buying stakes in some of Italy's biggest companies this year.

Italy learnt it was no longer in a recession on yesterday thanks to a change in data calculations across the European Union which includes illegal economic activities such as prostitution and drugs in the GDP measure. GDP rose slightly from a 0.1% decline for the Q1 to a flat reading.

Spain's trade deficit reached €16.481 billion (US$21.073 billion) during the January-August period this year, up from the €8.420 billion euros of the same period

in 2013. Exports increased by 0.9% y-o-y to a total of €157.192 billion. Exports shipped to the eurozone countries increased by 3.9%, while those to the European Union members increased by 3.6%.

North America

The US budget deficit fell by nearly a third to US$483 billion in fiscal 2014, the lowest level since 2008, as a quickening economic recovery boosted tax collections and spending grew only modestly. The deficit, down from US$680 billion last year, was the lowest since a US$459 billion budget gap in fiscal 2008, which was followed by four straight years of US$1 trillion-plus deficits in the wake of the financial crisis.

US retail sales in September fell 0.3% from the previous month, for the first drop in 8 months. Retail sales for the month were over US$442 billion. Sales of electronic appliances rose by 3.4%, partly due to new iPhone handsets that went on the market last month. But

sales of automobiles and auto parts, which fell 0.8%, pushed down total retail sales. Gasoline sales, purchases of clothing, and spending on building materials also went down.

South America

Argentine inflation accelerated in September to 1.4% on the month from 1.3% in August. Latin America's third-largest economy has one of the world's highest inflation rates, which some analysts say is already running at 40% on a yearly basis.

Retail sales in Brazil rose in August, rebounding from a sharp July drop as demand increased for fuel, pharmaceuticals and clothing despite the weakest consumer confidence in more than five years. Sales

volumes grew 1.1% in August from July. The recovery followed a 1% contraction in July and a 0.7% drop in June, as tighter credit, the disruptions of the World Cup and concerns about the job market led to one of Brazil's weakest quarters for retail in the past decade.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for November settlement declined as much as $1.06, or 1.3%, to $82.72 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,240.43 an ounce at 2 p.m. in Singapore from $1,242.02 yesterday, when prices climbed to $1,249.75.

Silver for immediate delivery was at $17.4633 an ounce from $17.4677 yesterday.

Currency News

The Aussie dollar touched 92.19 yen yesterday, the least since March 20, before trading at 93.33 today. The U.S. dollar appreciated 0.5% to $1.2775 per euro as of 8:40 a.m. London time after weakening 1.4%

yesterday.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


15-Oct-14 1,222.30 3.84 83.88 21.84 1.62 2.04 1.27 0.89 9599.69 84.40 2.56 35.22 25.53 3,207.05

16-Oct-14 1,240.34 3.81 83 21.78 1.61 2.03 1.28 0.90 9580.38 84.03 2.56 35.18 25.49 3,154.21

% Change 1.48 -0.78 -1.05 -0.19 -0.57 0.45 0.48 -0.20 -0.44 0.18 -0.13 -0.14 -1.65

… Eurozone exports fell for the third month running in August … … US manufacturing output rose in September …

South East Asia

FDI in Indonesia from January to September expanded by 14.6% to IDR228.3 trillion (US$18.679 billion) on a yearly basis. Both foreign and domestic investments at the period grew by 16.8% to IDR342.7 trillion (equal to US$28.04 billion).

Malaysia’s CPI increased 2.6% to 110.7 in September 2014, compared with 107.9 in the same month last year. It was attributed the increase to the rise in the index for food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.2%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (14.8%), restaurants and hotels (4.8%), housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels and health (3.4%) respectively.

Philippines’ inflation may have already reached its peak when it hit 4.9% in July and August but upside risks such as the pending adjustments of power rates remain. Inflation eased to 4.4% in September due to lower increases of food prices and housing and utility rates. The rate settled at 4.9% in August, matching the pace in July, when consumer prices soared to a 33-month high.

Singapore saw international visitor arrivals dropping 3% y-o-y to 7.5 million in the first half of 2014. Despite this, the market achieved 2% y-o-y growth in tourism receipts to generate SG$11.8 billion (US$9.3 billion), fuelled by an increase in expenditure in sightseeing, entertainment and gaming.

North East Asia

China’s central bank is set to inject about CN¥200 billion (US$32.66 billion) worth of three-month loans into five or six listed banks to keep liquidity ample and support the slowing Chinese economy.

Banks in China lent more in September as part of the central bank’s measures to boost the economy, while the country’s foreign exchange reserves fell by the most on record. New yuan loans in September totalled CN¥857.2 billion (US$140 billion), CN¥70.2 billion more than the same month of last year.

China announced a cut in the retail price of gasoline by CN¥300 (US$48.78) per tonne and that of diesel by CN¥290. The adjustment, to enter effect today, means benchmark retail prices will drop by CN¥0.22 per

litre for gas and CN¥0.25 per litre for diesel. This is the sixth consecutive cut and the largest single drop. Since the beginning of July, benchmark retail gas prices have declined by CN¥0.79. It is also the 10th time that retail oil prices have been cut this year.

The average retail price of regular gasoline in Japan fell JP¥0.7 in October 16 from a week before to stand at JP¥165.3 per litre, down for the 13th consecutive week. The decline chiefly reflects concern about a drop in demand for crude oil on the back of slowdowns in the European and Chinese economies.


India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to a near four-month low for the week-ended October 10. During the week under review, reserves fell US$1.31 billion to US$312.74 billion. Reserves stood at US$312.59 billion in the week-ended June 6. Foreign currency assets, a key component of reserves, fell US$1.30 billion to US$286.89 billion. However, gold reserves remained unchanged during at US$20.01 billion.

India’s steel exports grew by 0.4% in the first six months of the current fiscal which the “worried” domestic producers attribute to higher cost of production and growing dominance of China in the global market. India exported 2.69 million tonne steel during the April-September period of 2014-15, compared to 2.68 million tonne in the same period of last fiscal.


Egypt’s central bank decided to keep the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate and the rate of the bank’s main operation for October unchanged at 9.25%, 10.25% and 9.75% respectively. The central bank raised its key interest rates in July to contain inflation, which went up on the back of price increases on subsidised fuel and electricity.


18/10/2014

Iranian alloy steel production rose 17% y-o-y to reach 225,000 tons in the first half of the current Iranian year (started March 21). Alloy steel production amounted to 193,000 tons during the same period last year. During the period, 192,000 tons of alloy steel worth US$137 billion were supplied to domestic markets registering a growth of over 32% in terms of weight and 34% in terms of value compared with last year’s figure.

Morocco’s January-to-September trade deficit narrowed by 5.1% y-o-y to MAD143.45 billion (US$16.5 billion), as exports improved. Morocco’s exports rose 6.7% to MAD147.25 billion (from MAD138 billion) in the first nine months of 2014, thanks to the auto, electronic and aviation industries, which surged 31.3%, 22.2% and 3.7% respectively.

Kuwait’s CPI was unchanged at 2.7% y-o-y in August, as inflation in most components remained subdued. Core inflation continues to hover above the headline inflation rate, and came in steady at 2.9% y-o-y in August.

Eastern Europe

Russia’s credit rating was cut to the second-lowest investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited sluggish growth prospects worsened by the crisis in Ukraine and international sanctions. Moody’s downgraded the government one level to Baa2 from Baa1 and kept a negative outlook on the country’s rating.

Russian wages contracted for a second month in September as the sliding ruble and accelerating inflation undercut consumers’ spending power, the sputtering economy’s main pillar. Wages adjusted for inflation fell 1% in September.

Russia’s retail sales rose 1.7% y-o-y in September, after rising 1.4% in August. Consumption, once the main growth driver, is struggling to ignite the US$2 trillion economy weakened by sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over the crisis in Ukraine. The economy is estimated to grow 0.3% in 2014, undercut by sliding oil prices, the depreciating currency and intensified capital flight.

Western Europe

New car sales in EU accelerated by 6.4% in September with nearly 1.24 million new cars sold, showing the thirteenth month running of increases as a recovery in the market spreads across the continent. Spain led the pack, with sales jumping by 26.2%, thanks mainly to its “cash-for-clunkers” programme, although the country’s economy is gradually recovering after six years of crisis. For the January to September period, sales climbed 6.1% to 9.57 million vehicles.

Eurozone exports fell for the third month running in August. Inflation in the Eurozone dipped to 0.3% in September, the lowest level since financial debt crisis in 2009.

North America

Canada’s annual inflation rate decelerated to 2% in September, a slight dip in the cost of living from the previous month. The inflation rate had been up 2.1% in the months of August and in July.

The number of people seeking unemployment aid in the US dropped to the lowest level in 14 years last week, the latest sign of a strengthening labour market. Weekly applications for unemployment aid fell 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000, the lowest level since April 2000. Given that the US population has grown considerably since then, the proportion of the US workforce applying for benefits is even smaller.

US manufacturing output rose in September, led by gains for aerospace products, furniture, clothing and plastics. The factory production rose 0.5% in September, after falling 0.5% in August. Over the past 12 months, manufacturing output has increased 3.7%.

South America

Chile’s central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3% but removed its easing bias. The bank cut the rate for the fourth straight month, despite above-target inflation. The economy of the top copper producer has slowed to levels not seen in over four

years as investment dwindles, especially in the mining sector and once-hot consumer demand cools.

Industrial production and sales rose in Colombia by 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, in the first six months of 2014 buoyed by strong internal demand inside Latin America’s fastest growing economy. Sales from Colombian companies to their domestic counterparts for industrial sector products rose in every sector except refined petroleum products. Colombia’s international sales were down in half of its industrial the sub-sectors.

Peru’s GDP expanded 1.24% in August, bringing growth in the first eight months of this year to 2.8%. The strongest sector was finance and insurance which expanded 12.32%. Telecommunications was up 5.65%, and agriculture increased 3.12%.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for December settlement increased 34 cents to end at US$86.16 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2% to

settle at US$1,239 an ounce at 1:49 p.m. on the Comex in New York.

Platinum futures for January delivery advanced 0.8% to US$1,261.50 an ounce.

Currency News

The rupiah advanced 1% this week to 12,108 per dollar in Jakarta. The yen fell 0.5% to 106.88 per dollar at 5 p.m. New York time.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


16-Oct-14 1,240.34 3.81 83 21.78 1.61 2.03 1.28 0.90 9580.38 84.03 2.56 35.18 25.49 3,154.21

18-Oct-14 1,238.32 3.77 86.16 22.85 1.63 2.05 1.27 0.90 9591.41 83.31 2.58 35.27 25.48 3,167.73

% Change -0.16 -1.05 3.81 1.08 0.92 -0.16 -0.23 0.12 -0.86 0.57 0.28 -0.05 0.43

… Exports from Oman for the first half of 2014 recorded a decline … … India has freed diesel prices from government control …

South East Asia

Brunei could see a further contraction in its GDP growth rate for this year and the next unless oil and gas production recovers, the Asian Development Bank said in

its latest report. The ADB said the Sultanate is on track for a 1.1 to 1.2% growth in GDP for 2014-2015 provided that the country manages to recover some of its declining hydrocarbon production. Brunei’s oil and gas production declined in three consecutive quarters, falling by 10.3% in Q1 2014 from last year.

FDI into Myanmar has exceeded the government’s original target just six months into the fiscal year. The government estimated earlier this year that FDI would reach US$4-5 billion in the 2014-15 budget year, but by the end of September, the country had already seen almost US$4.09 billion in foreign investment.

The Thai government has asked retailers to cooperate in lowering petrol and gasohol retail prices to reflect the current weakening of global oil prices. The government resolved to raise the diesel-fuel contribution to the fund by THB0.70 a litre, from THB3 per litre to THB3.70, effective today. This should result in improved liquidity of the Oil Fund of about THB1.09 billion a month, from the current monthly income of between THB5.12 billion and THB6.22 billion. The retail price of diesel will remain unchanged at THB29.39 a litre.

Vietnam’s budget overspending accounts for 5.3% of GDP. State budget collection in the past 9 months saw an increase of 17.2% compared to the same period last year. Inflation was kept under control, while macro-economy was stabilised. Foreign exchange rate was stable, and foreign currency reserves were estimated at the highest level so far. The trust in Vietnamese currency has been built up. This year’s total FDI disbursement may reach US$12.5 billion, up 8.7%.

North East Asia

Hong Kong's unemployment rate stood at 3.3% in July to September this year, same as that in June to August this year. An increase in the jobless rate was observed in the decoration, repair and maintenance for buildings sector while decreases were seen in the cleaning

and similar activities, and warehousing and support activities for transportation sectors.

Japan's crude steel output dropped last month for the first time in 2 months due mainly to a decline in

demand from automakers. Crude steel output by domestic steel makers last month was down half a percent from a year earlier to a little over 9.2 million tons. Production had been declining for 4 months until July due to the effects of the consumption tax hike in April.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) ranked Korea 80th this year in terms of financial market maturity compared to its potential - far behind some developing countries like Ghana, Cambodia and Colombia. Korea ranked 120th in access to loans and 122nd in fiscal soundness of banks. Korea also ranks 26th in overall national competitiveness.

South Korea's national tax revenue declined by about ₩300 billion on-year in the January-August period due to the slowing economic recovery, raising worries that the government might face tougher income conditions. The government had collected ₩136.6 trillion in national taxes during the period, down ₩300 billion

from the same period a year earlier.

Australasia

Australia’s central bank repeated that the nation’s currency is still too strong to help rebalance the economy and discussed the need for banks to maintain high lending standards.


India has freed diesel prices from government

control while raising natural gas tariffs in the biggest-yet reform by the new government, as it aims to boost the country's economy and overhaul its energy sector. Those subsidies meant to help poor farmers using diesel-powered water pumps inadvertently led the country to consume more than four times as much diesel as petrol, at large cost to the national budget. Almost half the country's US$23 billion spent on fuel subsidies in 2013 went for diesel.


Algeria recorded a trade surplus of US$5.39 billion during the nine first months of 2014 against US$6.6 billion during the same period of the previous year, 18% down. From January to September 2014, Algeria’s exports reached US$49.23 billion, recording a 1.44% rise. Hydrocarbons continued to represent the biggest part of


21/10/2014

exports with 95.83% of the global volume of Algerian international shipments.

Egypt's exports of natural gas in August witnessed an 86% drop compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. The value of exports totalled US$26.1 million, compared to US$192 million in August 2013. Meanwhile, natural gas production fell 14% lower than its August 2013 level, totalling 3.04 thousand tonnes of natural gas, compared to 3.5 thousand in the same month of the previous year.

Iranian exports to the European Union witnessed a 77% rise in value in August compared with the same month of 2013. Trade turnover between Iran and the 28 EU member-states in the first eight months of 2014 stood at €4.587 billion. The value of Iran-EU trade exchange from January to August 2014 grew by 15% y-o-y, which amounted to €3.975 billion. EU imports from Iran during the first eight months of 2014 reached €645 million, showing a 28% increase, compared with the same period of last year.

Morocco needs external borrowing of MAD24 billion in 2015 to plug a budget deficit estimated at 4.3% of GDP. The government is likely to hit a 4.9% budget deficit target this year, down from 5.5% in 2013. The North African kingdom estimated its borrowing needs in 2014 at US$3.2 billion.

The total value of exports from Oman for the first

half of 2014 recorded a decline of 9.6% including oil and gas, non-oil products and re-exports, totalling OMR10 billion when compared with OMR11 billion recorded during the corresponding period in 2013. The fall is due to a decrease in the value of oil and gas exports by 9.7%, declining from OMR7.3 billion exported by the end of H1 2013 to OMR6.6 billion recorded at the end of H1 2014.

Eastern Europe

Russia is to ban import of auto equipment, metal and heavy engineering products. A resolution prohibiting state-owned companies from buying foreign products unless there is no Russian-made products. The

resolution is expected to become effective by the end of the year, after it is approved by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. The proposed measure would

reportedly affect companies in which state ownership is greater than 50%.

Western Europe

German economic situation in the rest of year would be similar to Q2 when German economy contracted slightly, the central bank said. Poor performance of industry and construction would weigh on overall economic growth. This, however, would be offset by a fairly good consumption, which would be boosted by strong employment and increasing wages.

The number of United Kingdom businesses receiving export support has increased by 50% in the last financial year. This translates into a total of

47,960 businesses in 2013 to 2014 which exported for the first time or found new markets through its extensive network of specialists in the UK and in British embassies around the world.

Oil & Gas News

WTI for December delivery was at $82.26 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 35 cents, at 6 p.m. Sydney time.

Commodity News

Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.3% to $1,250.35 an ounce, the highest since Sept. 10, and traded at $1,249.39 at 2:24 p.m. in Singapore.

Soybeans for November delivery rose as much as 1% to $9.535 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and were at $9.505 by 2:18 p.m. in Singapore.

Currency News

The rupiah gained 0.4% to 11,988 per dollar as of 10:16 a.m. in Jakarta, prices from local banks show.

The yen appreciated 0.5% to 106.40 per dollar as of 8:13 a.m. London time after weakening 1% during the previous three days.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


18-Oct-14 1,238.32 3.77 86.16 22.85 1.63 2.05 1.27 0.90 9591.41 83.31 2.58 35.27 25.48 3,167.73

21-Oct-14 1,251.69 3.68 85.57 23.25 1.62 2.05 1.27 0.90 9446.44 84.33 2.57 35.21 25.42 3,190.30

% Change 1.08 -2.39 -0.68 -0.41 0.11 -0.09 -0.20 -1.51 1.23 -0.31 -0.18 -0.25 0.71

… Japan logged a good trade deficit of JP¥958.3 billion … … China's urban fixed-asset investment grew 16.1% y-o-y …

South East Asia

Brunei’s chemical exports in July surged to B$29.6 million, over three times more than the figure posted in the same period last year. Chemical exports increased by 355.4%compared to last year’s. In June 2014, export of chemicals had shot up by 1,371% when compared to the same month in the previous year, increasing from B$2.1 million previously to B$30.9 million, the JPKE said.

The Thai cabinet approved a THB68 billion (US$2.68 billion) budget for transportation infrastructure for the fiscal year ending September 2015. Most of the budget will be spent on dual-track railway projects nationwide. The budget was part of the military government's infrastructure investments over the next eight years. The government has said the 8-year budget would be around THB2.4 trillion for overall transport infrastructure spending.

Vietnam’s socio-economic development is progressing steadily, with economic growth likely to reach 5.8% this year. The economy continued to grow by 5.62% during the first 9 months this year, higher than the same period last year. Meanwhile, inflation declined to 2.25% in the nine-month period. The business environment and competitiveness have yet to improve, with limited access to capital for businesses. Slow credit growth and rising public debt were also the challenges. The securities market is still unstable, while the real estate market was sluggish and exports by domestic firms remained low.

The State Bank of Viet Nam approved the addition

of 19 projects to a pilot programme that offers preferential loans for agricultural development. They will get a total of VND1.926 trillion (US$90.42 million) at preferential interest rates of 7% per year for short-term loans, 10% for medium-term loans and 10.5% for long-term loans.

North East Asia

China's economy expanded at a slower pace in the Q3 of this year, but still remained within the "reasonable range" set by policymakers. GDP expanded 7.3% from a year ago in the Q3, compared with 7.5% in the Q2 and

7.4% in the Q1 of this year. For the first nine months, the GDP rose 7.4% y-o-y to reach CN¥42 trillion (US$6.84 trillion). Consumption contributed to 48.5% of China's economic growth in the first nine months, eclipsing investment, which accounted for only 41.5%.

China's fiscal revenue rose 6.3% y-o-y to CN¥995.3 billion (US$162.6 billion) in September, quickening from a 6.1% rise in August. Central government revenue reached CN¥448.2 billion, up 5.9% y-o-y, while local government

revenue stood at CN¥547.1 billion, up 6.6% from the same period last year. The pace of fiscal spending sped up. In September, national fiscal expenditures went up 9.1% to CN¥1.4 trillion, compared to the 6.2% increase in July. In the first nine months, fiscal revenue rose 8.1% to CN¥10.6 trillion.

Growth in China's consumer spending continued to cool in September as the country's Q3 growth was the slowest since the global financial crisis. The retail sales rose 11.6% from one year earlier in September. In the first nine months of the year, retail sales rose 12% y-o-y to CN¥18.92 trillion (US$3.08 trillion). Sales in rural regions rose 13% from a year ago to CN¥2.6 trillion, while sales in urban areas climbed 11.9% to CN¥16.31 trillion.

Online retail sales surged 49.9% from one year earlier to CN¥1.82 trillion.

Investment growth in China's property sector continued to slow despite easing government restrictions on the market. Real estate investment rose 12.5% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014, 0.7 percentage point slower from the growth in the January-August period. Property sales went down by 8.9% y-o-y during the first nine months. To avoid a sharp slowdown in the property market, China on Sept. 30 unveiled eased mortgage measures for home buyers.

China's industrial production growth picked up to 8% y-o-y in September due to a stronger output of chemicals, steel, and a sharp acceleration in the telecommunication and computer sector after a sharp slowdown to 6.9% in August, and was the weakest growth since December 2008. The growth of industrial production remained stable. Industrial production accounted for 44.2% of China's total GDP in the first nine months.

China's urban fixed-asset investment grew 16.1% y-o-y to CN¥35.78 trillion (US$5.8 trillion) in the first nine months of 2014. In the first nine months of 2014, investment in the primary industry went up 27.7%, followed by a 17.4% rise in the tertiary industry and 13.7% in secondary. Investments in infrastructure rose 22.2% to CN¥5.9 trillion. The sluggish property market, a

major growth engine for China, dragged down growth in the broader economy, which slowed to 7.3% in the Q3. Notably, social investment gained 18.3% during the period, accounting for 64.7% of total investment.


22/10/2014

Hong Kong’s inflation rate rose 6.6% in September from a year ago, larger than the 3.9% increase in August this year. This was mainly due to the low base of comparison resulted from the government's payment of public housing rentals in the month.

Japan logged a good trade deficit of JP¥958.3 billion (about US$8.95 billion) in September. Exports in the reporting period jumped 6.9% from a year earlier to JP¥6.38 trillion (US$59.6 billion) while imports rose 6.2% to JP¥7.34 trillion (US$68.6 billion). That left a deficit of JP¥958.3 billion (US$8.95 billion), up 1.6% from a year earlier.

South Korea's central government debts hit an all-time high in August as it increased fiscal expenditure to boost the sluggish economy. Debts owed by the central

government reached a record high of ₩511.1 trillion (US$484.3 billion) as of the end of August. The fiscal debts grew ₩7.8 trillion in August compared with the prior month after topping the ₩500 trillion level for the first time in July.

Start-up growth in South Korea slowed for two straight months due to Chuseok holiday. The number of newly established firms registered in the court as a corporate body stood at 6,400 in September, down 151 from a month earlier. The figure continued to fall after peaking at 8,129 in July.

Australasia

Australia's inflation rate has fallen to 2.3% on year in the Q3 of 2014, from 3% in the Q2, mainly because of a fall in electricity prices. Electricity prices fell 5.1% between June and September, the biggest quarterly fall in the price of electricity for more than 20 years, following the scrapping of the carbon tax from July 1. However the most significant price rises this quarter were for fruit (14.7%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (1.1%), property rates and charges (6.3%) and other services in respect of motor vehicles (5.8%).

The Reserve Bank of Australia called on the country’s banks to be prudent in lending for mortgages to avoid creating “unacceptable risk” in the

sector. The level of risk in investment housing, where prices had surged in the past year, had risen. Lending to property speculators was now “unbalanced”. House prices have climbed sharply this year, prompting the bank to warn recently of wider risks to the economy if the property market were to weaken suddenly.


Pakistan’s current account was in US$3 million surplus in September. Although the amount is meagre, its impact was significant in terms of signal it gives since the current account deficit widened to US$1.372 billion during July-August period, almost half of US$2.971 billion deficit during entire FY14. However, the current account deficit remained at US$1.33 billion for the first quarter (July-September) of this fiscal year.


Oman will not cut government expenditure next year, if the fall in oil prices does not get extended over a long period, the Ministry of Finance said. Oman Crude is trading at around US$84 per barrel now, below the average crude price of UA$85 a barrel considered for estimating budget revenue this year. Oman, like its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) neighbours, depends heavily on oil revenues that make up 83% of its income.

Qatar’s gross national income (GNI) is estimated to have grown 8% y-o-y in the Q2 of this year. However, GNI was down 1.3% compared to the previous quarter of 2014. The country’s gross savings expanded 6% y-o-y; while slumped 4% q-o-q. The gross savings’ proportion to nominal GDP stood at 58.9% compared to 59.5% in the year-ago period. It was as high as 60.1% in the Q1 of this year.

Turkey's central bank will begin paying interest on the lira reserves that financial institutions are required to keep, in a bid to boost domestic savings and economic growth, as Turkey's economy shows signs of a slowdown. Geopolitical tensions in the region, including the Syrian war and the rise of Isis, could combine with slow growth in the Eurozone to hamper growth in the Turkish economy.

The UAE’s CPI climbed to 2.9% y-o-y in September, on higher housing and utility costs. The inflation has reached

its highest level since March 2009. The main drivers are cost of housing and utilities followed by cost of food.

Eastern Europe

Russia’s biggest banks are facing dollar shortages amid sanctions. The liquid foreign currency-denominated assets of the 30 largest Russian lenders exceed their liabilities this quarter and in 2015 by US$32 billion. Some 70% of the banks’ total US$192 billion of external debt is denominated in dollars. The Bank of Russia plans to offer the equivalent of as much as US$50 billion via foreign-exchange repurchase loans through the end of 2016 to alleviate the funding squeeze.

Western Europe

Engineering exports to European markets may get impacted in the coming months. India's engineering exports are "critically dependent" on the US and EU markets. While shipments to the EU grew at 10.33% to US$1.09 billion in September, fresh economic troubles in major European economies like Germany and France are a big cause of worries for months subsequent to September. Industrial machinery, aircraft parts, auto components are the major engineering exports to the EU.

The eurozone ratio of government deficit to GDP

decreased from 3.6% in 2012 to 2.9% in 2013, and in the EU from 4.2% to 3.2%. In the euro area, the government debt to GDP ratio increased from 89% at the end of 2012 to 90.9% at the end of 2013, and in the EU from 83.5% to 85.4%. Under EU rules, current and

potential eurozone members must keep their budget deficits below 3% of GDP and public debt must not exceed 60% of GDP.

Greece's current account surplus widened in August compared to the same month last year, boosted by higher tourism receipts. The surplus stood at €1.83 billion versus a surplus of €1.21 billion in August last year. Greece posted a current account surplus of €1.24 billion last year, or about 0.7% of GDP. It is expected to post a surplus again this year due to shrinking imports and higher revenues from tourism. Tourism revenues rose to €3.18 billion in August from €2.89 billion in the same month in 2013.

North America

U.S. home sales reached the highest level of the year in September, a sign of halting progress in the housing market that could lift the broader economy. Sales of previously owned homes climbed 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million in September.

U.S. payrolls rose in 39 states in September and the unemployment rate fell in 31 states, a sign the improvement in the U.S. labour market is broad-based. Texas led the nation with a 36,400 increase in employment, followed by Illinois with 19,300 more jobs.

South America

Brazilian consumer prices picked up through mid-October, leaving the annual inflation still above the central bank's tolerance band between 2.5% and 6.5%.

Brazil's mid-month CPI, the IPCA-15, rose 0.48%, up from the 0.39% increase in the month through mid-September. Price pressures as measured by the rolling 12-month index increased 6.62% in mid-October, the same level seen through mid-September.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for December settlement was up 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $86.37 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Bullion for immediate delivery added as much as 0.3 percent to $1,251.90 an ounce and was at $1,249.06 by 2:47 p.m. in Singapore,

Zinc for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange climbed 1.1 percent to to $2,235 a ton at 3:04 p.m. in Hong Kong.

Currency News

The euro was little changed at $1.2717 as of 8:33 a.m. London time after swinging between a 0.1% drop and 0.2% gain.

Sterling weakened 0.2% to 79.09 pence per euro at 8:48 a.m. London time, after appreciating to 78.78 pence yesterday.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


21-Oct-14 1,251.69 3.68 85.57 23.25 1.62 2.05 1.27 0.90 9446.44 84.33 2.57 35.21 25.42 3,190.30

22-Oct-14 1,247.13 3.70 86.65 23.42 1.63 2.05 1.27 0.89 9447.33 83.98 2.57 35.29 25.43 3,202.74

% Change -0.36 0.54 1.26 0.06 0.05 -0.35 -0.06 0.01 -0.41 -0.08 0.22 0.05 0.39

… Inflation in Russia hit 8.3% … … Vietnamese rice exports reach 4.9 million tonnes this year …

South East Asia

Manufacturers are concerned over Thailand's flagging economy, weaken domestic consumption and rising competition. The Thai Industries Sentiment Index

(TISI) in September retreated for the second consecutive month following weaken sales and order volumes, production output and business performance. In addition, liquidity problem has affected the ability of the private sector from expanding investments while the global economic recovery is still at risk. The FTI index fell to 86.2 points in September from 88.7 in August.

A total of 164,299 vehicles were produced in Thailand in September, down 15.63% y-o-y but still better than in August. Thailand produced a total of 1.408 million vehicles in the first nine months of the year, down 27.03% on the same period last year. Car sales totalled 68,843 units in September, down 27.5% y-o-y. Thailand exported 97,570 cars in September, down 17.49%, with the value of THB43.8 billion, down 16.32%. Exports in the nine-month totalled 838,952 units, down 1%, with export value of THB395 billion, a drop of 12.63% y-o-y.

Vietnam has encouraged enterprises to source local materials in manufacturing, but because of unreasonable tax policies it is cheaper to buy imported materials to make finished products in Vietnam.

Vietnam has exported 4.9 million tonnes of rice worth US$2.1 billion so far this year. The rice cost US$458.35 per tonne in October, a slight increase from September's US$439.11 per tonne.

North East Asia

China has approved construction of five airports and three railway projects worth CN¥150 billion (US$24.5 billion), the latest move to speed up infrastructure projects to boost growth. The building of railway lines and airports will foster investment, the biggest driver in the world's second-largest economy, which has sagged this year as a cooling manufacturing sector and a softening housing market discourage spending.

China's overseas investment will rise by roughly 10%

from the previous year to CN¥120 billion (US$19.67 billion). The 10% growth rate will remain for the next five years. In the first nine months, China's investment in other nations and regions hit US$74.96 billion, up 21.6% y-o-y, while the country actually used US$87.36 billion of

overseas investment, down 1.4% y-o-y. China's equipment manufacturers have found huge markets overseas, involving sectors such as shipping, high-speed railway, electricity and telecommunication.

China reduced oil imports from Saudi Arabia even as the world’s largest crude exporter cuts prices to lure Asian customers amid intensifying competition from Colombia to Oman. Oil deliveries from Saudi Arabia fell 2.7% to 4.74 million metric tons last month from a year earlier. Shipments from Colombia surged 389.6%, while Russian deliveries increased by 56.8%. Asian consumers are benefiting from a wider choice of suppliers offering cheaper crude, from Venezuela to Alaska and Nigeria.

The number of visitors to Japan in January-September totaled 9,737,300, up 26% from a year earlier. In September alone, the number of visitors grew 26.8% to 1,099,100, marking a record high for the month. The figure was up for the 20th straight month. It now

appears certain that the number of visitors in January-October will surpass 10.36 million, the annual record marked in 2013, and that the annual total will rewrite the record high for the second consecutive year.

Average regular monthly wages in Taiwan's non-farm sector rose 1.63% from a year earlier to NT$38,076 (US$1,257), the highest level on record. The data showed signs that local wages have been on the rise at a time when the local economy is on the road to recovery.

South Korea has borrowed nearly ₩70 trillion (US$66.6 billion) worth of short-term money over the past three years to make up for financial shortfalls in running

government affairs. The government borrowed ₩68 trillion worth of short-term money from 2012 to September this year.

Taiwan’s unemployment rate fell to 3.96% last month from 4.08% in August, a 0.28 percentage point decrease from the level recorded in September last year. Last month’s figure represents the lowest level posted for September in the past 14 years. The number of people registered as unemployed decreased by 15,000 to 458,000 last month from a month earlier.

Taiwan has secured NT$1.03 trillion (US$33.9 billion) in private investment during the first nine

months of the year and achieved 79.46% of its annual target of NT$1.33 trillion in private investment. The nine-month figure was also 11.41% higher than the NT$927.1 billion in private investment obtained during the same period last year.


23/10/2014

Australasia

Oil consumption has continued on the uptrend alongside Australia’s economic and population growth. Between 2003 and 2013, the country witnessed a 27.9% increase in oil demand from 888 030 bpd to 1.14 million bpd. This was mainly the result of economic and population growth, the Business Monitor International said. Oil took up the largest share of Australia’s final energy consumption, at approximately 37.1% in 2012 – 2013. The transport sector (37.9% of total energy consumption) has been the largest consumer of oil, followed by the manufacturing sector.

Electricity companies appear reluctant to cut household power bills following the scrapping of the

carbon tax in Australia. Official inflation figures for the first three months after the tax was repealed in July showed electricity prices dropped by just 5.1%. That was much smaller than the 15.3% rise in power prices when the tax was introduced in the September quarter of 2012.

New Zealand's tech exports have increased by 62% over the last decade. The sector's total revenue has risen to a record NZ$8.3 billion. The tech sector is incredibly strong, and there are now 38 companies with revenue over NZ$15 million. The number of tech companies with revenue over NZ$50 million has doubled since 2010 – all while the New Zealand dollar has been very strong.


The Indian government removed the price of LNG imports from the gas pricing formula to avoid a conflict of interest situation where a company may be an LNG importer as well as a natural gas producer. To remove LNG prices alone contributed to a fall of US$2 in the price of natural gas from what the UPA regime had approved price that was US$8.4 in terms of gross calorie value but for consumers, the price would actually work out to US$9.3 on the basis.

Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) in Pakistan posted a growth of 5.27% during the second month of

the current fiscal year from a year ago. The industrial output witnessed an upward trend as the growth in July 2014 was 1.14%, which was negligible caused by the lower energy supply to the industries especially in Punjab.

Net federal government borrowings from the Pakistan’s central bank for budgetary support amounted to Rs107.4 billion from July 1 to October 10. They amounted to Rs539.5 billion over the same period of the last fiscal year, which reflects a y-o-y decline of 80% in net federal government borrowings from the central bank for budgetary support.


Egypt will introduce two new cash benefits early next year as part of government efforts to minimise the impact of subsidy cuts on the poor. The government will

have to offer the hardest hit Egyptians more help, like the new cash transfers, if it is to successfully implement the next phase of subsidy cuts to reduce a budget deficit that exceeds 10% of GDP. The initial phase of the two schemes would target about 2 million people in Upper Egypt, the impoverished rural south of the country, at an initial cost of EGP2.5 billion (US$350 million).

The net international investment position (NIIP) of Turkey had reached negative US$415.9 billion by the end of August, ballooning by US$22.3 billion in the first eight months of the year. The gap between an economy's external financial assets and liabilities had been minus US$393.6 billion at the end of 2013. According to the latest data, Turkey's foreign assets increased by 2.9% to US$232 billion at the end of August compared with the end of 2013, while its liabilities had increased by 4.6% to US$647.9 by the end of July.

Eastern Europe

Russia has no intention to increase export to the Asia-Pacific region while decreasing its trade with European countries. While Russia takes China, Japan, South Korea and other countries of the Asia-Pacific region as potential markets, it is not going to cut trade with traditional trade partners like the Netherlands, Germany or Italy. However, Moscow is going to set up free trade areas and to increase investment cooperation with Asian countries. BRICS countries are also Russia's promising trade partners.

Russian annual inflation has hit 8.3%. The recent reading is a 0.3% rise in the week to Oct. 20, resulting in a price rise of 7.0% since January. Russian officials recently said full-year inflation may reach 8% in 2014. Consumer prices are being driven higher by a weakening ruble and higher prices for food amid Moscow's ban on food imports from the European Union, the U.S. and some other countries.

Western Europe

Bank of England policymakers remain split on

raising interest rates, voting 7-2 at their last meeting to maintain a record low rate of 0.5% amid increasing pessimism about the global economy.

Spain received a total of 52.4 million international tourists in the first nine months of 2014. The figure meant a 7.4% increase in comparison with the first nine months of last year, while in September alone around 7 million of international visitors arrived in the country.

North America

Mexican retail sales rose 4.4% in August as accelerated job creation and a rebound in consumer confidence helped bolster spending. The economy generated 156,400 payroll jobs in September. The gain was more than twice as big as the August increase. GDP expanded 1% in the Q2 from the previous three-month

period, surpassing estimates of a 0.8% increase. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.2% in April through June.

U.S. consumer prices edged up slightly in September, with the overall increase held back by a third straight monthly decline in gasoline prices. Consumer prices rose 0.1% after having falling 0.2% in August. Core prices also climbed 0.1% after no gain in August. Over the past 12 months, both overall and core prices are up 1.7%. The increases are well below the 2% target for inflation set by the Federal Reserve. The modest inflationary pressures have allowed the central bank to keep interest rates at record lows to boost the economy.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for December settlement declined as much as 48 cents, or 0.6%, to $84.23 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Bullion for immediate delivery added 0.1% to $1,242.66 an ounce at 9:39 a.m. in Singapore.

Corn futures for December delivery lost 0.8% to close at $3.53 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade after touching $3.61, the highest since Sept. 3.

Currency News

The yen traded at 107.17 per dollar yesterday in New York. It reached 110.09 on Oct. 1, the weakest since 2008.

The Canada’s dollar gained as much as 0.3% to C$1.1184 per U.S. dollar, the strongest since Oct. 13, before trading at C$1.1236 at 5 p.m. Toronto time, down 0.1%.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


22-Oct-14 1,247.13 3.70 86.65 23.42 1.63 2.05 1.27 0.89 9447.33 83.98 2.57 35.29 25.43 3,202.74

23-Oct-14 1,243.28 3.65 84.34 23.11 1.63 2.05 1.27 0.89 9447.33 83.98 2.57 2.96 25.43 3,225.66

% Change -0.31 -1.35 -2.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -91.62 0.00 0.72

… Egypt’s domestic debt reached EGP1.8 trillion in June 2014… … Banks' lending to China's property sector fell …

South East Asia

Brunei’s prices of goods and services in September has declined by 0.1% compared to the month before owing to lower prices of recreational goods, medical

products, clothing and footwear. The JPKE recorded a 0.6% drop in the CPI for goods in the recreation and culture segment, 2.6% drop in health and 0.6% drop in the clothing and footwear segment.

Indonesia will probably raise subsidised fuel prices before the end of the year as President Joko Widodo seeks to trim subsidies and create more fiscal space, Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said.

Lao inflation rate for September is at 3.05 % which is lower than that recorded in 2013, which stood at 6.87%. The rate reported in January stood at 5.99 %, but fell to 4.26 % in June, and fell again to 3.62 % in August.

The Philippines posted a budget deficit of PHP5.2 billion for September following a surplus in August. That brought the nine-month shortfall to PHP31.1 billion, just around 12% of the programmed deficit for the year. Total revenue for September grew by 21% to PHP154.6 billion while year-to-date collections surged 13% compared to last year to PHP1.4 trillion.

The Philippines inflation is expected to further decelerate in October due to lower prices of petroleum and food items. The inflation this month could average between 3.7 to 4.6%, said the central bank.

Singapore's GDP is expected to grow at 2.5% to 3.5% over the next two years, said the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said. The Singapore economy is expected to proceed on a moderate growth trajectory over the next few quarters, MAS said, adding that while some segments within the external-oriented sectors should benefit from the uplift in the U.S. economy, certain pockets of activity will be subject to sluggish demand in the Eurozone and China.

Singapore’s Resale prices of private homes slid in September according to Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) estimates. The SRPI, compiled by the National University of Singapore, showed overall prices fell 0.7% in September from the previous month. In August, prices rose 0.2% from a month earlier. Prices of homes in the central region, excluding small units, led the decline with a 0.9% fall. Homes in the non-central region, excluding small units, fell 0.6% in September from August.

Thailand swung to a trade deficit of US$1.798 billion in September, compared with a US$1.14 billion surplus a month earlier. Exports grew 3.19% in September from a year earlier, to US$19.91 billion, but imports rose for the first time this year, jumping 14.42% to US$21.71 billion.

Viet Nam has recorded consecutive trade surpluses in the first 10 months of 2014, with the total now standing at US$1.87 billion. During the first 10 months, the nation's exports earned US$123.75 billion, a 13.4% y-o-y increase, and its imports reached more than US$121.2 billion, an 11.2% y-o-y increase.

North East Asia

China's growth continues to moderate, reflecting policy efforts to rebalance the economy as the country works to implement reforms supporting more sustainable growth, the World Bank said. For 2015-16, China's average economic growth is expected to ease to slightly above 7% as policy efforts to place the economy on a more sustainable growth path are likely to intensify.

Banks' lending to China's property sector fell 23.3% in Q3 from the previous three months, another sign of cooling momentum in the housing market. Chinese banks lent CN¥570 billion to home buyers and property developers between July and September this year, easing from CN¥743 billion in Q2 and down 5% from a year ago.

Price slumps in the global commodity market will likely mean good news for China after the country reported slowing growth for Q3. Continued weaker commodity prices led by crude oil are expected to save the country on enormous import bills, boost trade surplus and provide more leeway for Chinese policy makers to fine-tune the economy. Crude prices started a downward streak in the beginning of July and have fallen considerably from their previous peak.

South Korea logged a current account surplus for the 31st consecutive month in September as exports rose and travel deficit fell. The current account surplus reached US$7.62 billion last month, compared with a revised US$7.2 billion in August.

South Korea's credit card spending grew in Q3 at the sharpest pace in almost two years, pointing to a recovery in domestic demand from the deep trough that followed April's deadly ferry disaster. Purchases made with credit cards reached ₩147.17 trillion in the July-September period, growing 6.3% from a year earlier.


29/10/2014

South Korea's national debt is expected to increase by about ₩216 trillion during the five-year term of President Park Geun-hye, underlining growing concerns over mounting debt problems facing the country. South Korea's national debt is expected to increase to ₩659.4 trillion won by the end of 2017 from the ₩443.1 trillion won reported in 2012.


Egypt’s domestic debt reached EGP1.8 trillion in June 2014, of which 84.7% was government debt and 3.2% was public economic authorities’ debt. Egypt’s external debt increased by 4.8% to record EGP45.3 billion at the end of March 2014, compared to EGP43.2 billion at the end of June 2013. The rise is attributed to the hike in

“net disbursements of loans, facilities and deposits to EGP1.6 billion, and the increase of EGP516.8 million worth in external debt because of the rise in most currencies of borrowing versus the US dollar”.

Egypt’s domestic liquidity has increased by 1.9% in July to reach EGP 1.545 trillion. The increase was reflected in the growth of money supply by EGP17.3 billion. The rise in domestic liquidity during July reflects the increase in net domestic assets and the retreat in net foreign assets at the banking system.

UAE’s inflation rate in for the first nine months of this year reached 3% compared with the same period of 2013. The CPI increased 3.7% in September 2014 compared to the same month last year. September also shows a 1% increase in the CPI compared to August 2014.

Western Europe

The global economic crisis has plunged 2.6 million children into poverty in the world's most affluent countries, with children in Ireland, Latvia and Greece among the hardest hit, a new UNICEF report showed. Increases in child poverty since the crisis hit in 2008 have brought the estimated number of children living in poverty in the developed world to around 76.5 million, the report

said.

North America

Mexico's trade deficit for the first nine months of 2014 was US$1.76 billion, down 41.1% from the same

period last year. Between January and September exports from Mexico amounted to US$294 billion, a 4.6% increase over the same period in 2013, while imports reached US$295.77 billion, 4.1% more than the first nine months of 2013.

Mexico's oil sales between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30 were valued at US$33.92 billion, a gain of 8.7% over the same period in 2013, while non-petroleum exports totalled US$260.08 billion, a 6.6% increase.

U.S. orders for durable goods retreated 1.3% in September after a record 18.3% tumble in August. The August drop followed a record 22.5% increase in July. The wide swings in both months were driven by the volatile aircraft category, which saw orders soar in July only to plunge in August. For September, there was weakness in a number of areas. Demand for transportation goods fell 3.7%, with orders for commercial aircraft falling 16.1%. Demand for motor vehicles and parts slipped 0.1%. Orders for machinery fell 2.8%, and demand for computers declined 5.3%.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for December settlement gained as much as 67 cents, or 0.8%, to $86.70 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Rough-rice for January delivery fell 0.5% to $12.24 for 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade at 1:50 p.m. Singapore time.

Bullion for immediate delivery rose and fell at least 0.2%, and traded at $1,230.27 an ounce by 3:10 p.m. in Singapore from $1,228.52 yesterday.

Currency News

The euro sank to a more than two-year low of $1.2501 on Oct. 3, before trading at $1.2746 as of 12:35 p.m. in New York. The ruble slid 0.6% to 47.7112 against the central bank’s target dollar-euro basket by 6 p.m. in Moscow, bringing this year’s decline to 19%.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


28-Oct-14 1,227.31 3.56 85.36 23.98 1.62 2.05 1.27 0.89 9461.63 84.71 2.57 35.12 25.44 3,215.05

29-Oct-14 1,229.92 3.64 86.59 23.79 1.62 2.05 1.27 0.89 9539.25 84.62 2.57 35.14 25.45 3,221.98

% Change 0.21 2.25 1.44 -0.01 0.10 -0.02 0.04 0.82 -0.10 0.21 0.06 0.06 0.22

… Italy cut its target for the 2015 fiscal deficit to 2.6% … … Russia boosted gold reserves by the most since defaulting on local debt …

South East Asia

The World Bank has ranked Malaysia 18th out of 189 economies for ease of doing business, up two notches from last year, and ahead of countries such as

Taiwan (19th), Switzerland (20th) and Japan (29th).

Vietnam earned US$5 billion from exports of wood and wood-based products in the first ten months of this year, an increase of 13.3% y-o-y. In October alone, Vietnam exporters shipped wood and timber products abroad worth US$528 million, continuing an uptrend in the market. The U.S., China and Japan were the top three importers of Vietnamese wood and timber products, accounting for 66.35% of the country's total export market of these commodities.

Vietnamese garment and textile exports are expected to rise by 15-16% this year to between US$24.5 billion and US$25 billion. Shipments in the first nine months were worth nearly US$18 billion, an increase of 19% y-o-y. However, in the first nine months import of feedstock by the sector cost US$11 billion. Companies are switching to domestic feedstock from imports. As a result of an 18% increase in the sales of feedstock the textile and garment industry saw revenues rise by 12%.

North East Asia

The Chinese government announced measures to boost and upgrade domestic consumption in a bid to raise the quality and efficiency of its economy. Consumption is an important "engine" for economic

growth and represents great potential for China's development. The country must make full use of all market forces to raise effective supply and promote the expansion and upgrading of domestic consumption.

A World Bank report ranked Hong Kong the world's no. 3 on ease of doing business. Hong Kong's overall score edged up to 84.97 from last year's 84. 45, indicating an improvement in the city's overall business environment. Hong Kong ranked first in dealing with construction permits, second in both protecting minority investors and trading across borders, fourth in paying taxes, sixth in enforcing contracts and eighth in starting a business.

South Korea's industrial output grew in September from a month earlier, but the overall growth remained sluggish with the production in manufacturing not improving much. Production in the mining, manufacturing, gas and electricity industries expanded 0.1% last month

from a month earlier. This marked a turnaround from a 3.9% shrinkage tallied in August.

Australasia

Australia’s new home sales were flat in September, weighed down by a 2.3% fall in the sale of detached houses. However sales of apartments and semi-detached houses rose 11% in the month, and were up 8.7% in the September quarter. The overall profile for new home sales is consistent with a healthy year for dwelling construction in 2014/15.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is keeping interest rates on hold as inflation remains in check - and it may be some time before they rise again. The official cash rate was retained at 3.5% today, the level it has been at since late July after four successive 25 basis points lifts since March.


India eased rules for foreign investment in property development and construction. Real estate companies now need a minimum project-size of 20,000 sq. meters to invite overseas investors instead of the 50,000 sq. meters mandated earlier. India has attracted FDI of US$23.7 billion for the construction of houses and towns since April 2000, about 10% of total inflows.

India cooking gas consumers would have to pay Rs3 more for each subsidised refills because of an

increase in dealer commission as per existing policy. Dealer commission was last revised in December 2013 by Rs3.46 per cylinder to Rs40.71. The latest revision has been put in place from October 23. Each household with a LPG connection is entitled to 12 subsidised cylinders in a year.


Oman recorded the lowest inflation of 1.06% among the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states with annual inflation rates ranging between 1.06% and 3.8%by the end of August 2014. While Qatar's inflation was the highest, recording an increase of 3.8% in prices compared to August 2013, Bahrain followed with 3.1% and Saudi Arabia registered 2.8%, while Kuwait with 2.71% and UAE with 2.42% made up the rest.


30/10/2014

Eastern Europe

Russia boosted gold reserves by the most since defaulting on local debt in 1998, driving its bullion holdings to the largest in at least two decades. The country expanded its stockpile, the world’s fifth- biggest, by 37.2 metric tonnes in September to 1,149.8 tonnes. The increase, valued at about US$1.5 billion. Russian reserves overtook Switzerland and China this year, almost tripled since the end of 2005.

Western Europe

German exports to Russia fell by more than 26% on the year in August, the sharpest fall since the financial crisis in 2009. Exports to Russia in August were worth €2.3 billion, a 26.3% drop against the same month a year earlier. For the months from January to August, exports fell 16.6% to €20.3 billion. Germany is Russia's biggest trading partner in the EU but its exports to Russia already shrank 5.2% in 2013.

Ireland has retained its position as the best country in for the quality of its FDI in IBM’s annual Global Locations Trend report. It has also moved up four places in the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business’ rankings.

Italy cut its target for the 2015 fiscal deficit to 2.6% of GDP from 2.9%, having toughened its budget

plan for next year in response to changes requested by the European Commission. The Commission gave a green light to Rome's modified budget after economy minister pledged additional deficit cuts worth €4.5 billion, around 0.3% of GDP.

The Bank of Spain reported growth of 0.5% in Q3, meaning the country is on track to meet, and probably exceed, the government’s projection of 1.3% growth for 2014. The economy added 151,000 jobs, and unemployment fell 0.8 percentage points to 23.7%, but well down from last year’s 26%.

North America

Mexico's foreign reserves dropped by US$256 million last week to US$190.73 billion. Gold and foreign currency reserves rose in the week ending Oct. 24 mainly due to a sale of dollars to the federal government and a

change in the value of the central bank's foreign assets. Reserves have grown by US$14.21 billion since Jan. 1.

The US Federal Reserve is ending a stimulus program it started in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Known as quantitative easing, the program involved the US Federal Reserve buying financial assets such as government bonds and mortgage back securities and creating new money to pay for them. US interest rates still remain at zero and the Fed has indicated that's where they were likely to remain for now even if the US labour market continues to strengthen.

South America

Brazil's central bank raised its key interest rate by

25 basis points to 11.25%, the first hike since April in the wake of leftist Dilma Rousseff's re-election as president. The central bank has a mandate to keep the annual inflation rate at 4.5%. The latest reading of the IPCA price index in September was 6.75%, which was outside the bank's tolerance range of 2.5% to 6.5%.

Oil & Gas News

Brent for December settlement declined as much as 32 cents, or 0.4%, to $86.80 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Commodity News

Bullion for immediate delivery was at $1,213.07 an ounce by 11:57 a.m. in Singapore from $1,212.15 yesterday.

Soybeans for January delivery advanced as much as 1% to $10.5925 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Currency News

The rupiah dropped 0.6%, most since Sept. 29, to

12,149 per dollar as of 9:31 a.m. in Jakarta. The ringgit weakened 0.5%, the biggest decline in a month, to 3.2880 per dollar as of 9:53 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur.

Date Gold Spot

NYMEX Natural

Gas

($/MMBtu)

Brent Oil

($/bbl)

oil/nat.


29-Oct-14 1,229.92 3.64 86.59 23.79 1.62 2.05 1.27 0.89 9539.25 84.62 2.57 35.14 25.45 3,221.98

30-Oct-14 1,205.69 3.80 87.1 22.92 1.62 2.05 1.27 0.89 9552.01 84.98 2.57 35.14 25.53 3,222.17

% Change -1.97 4.40 0.59 0.09 -0.06 -0.12 -0.43 0.13 0.42 -0.23 -0.01 0.30 0.01

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