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Southeast AsianSoutheast AsianMinisters of EducationMinisters of Education
OrganizationOrganizationLeading through Learning
The Purpose of SEAMEO
SEAMEO is a chartered international and intergovernmental organization established in 1965 to promote cooperation in education, science and culture in Southeast Asia.
• Establishes network and partnerships
• Provides intellectual forums for policy makers and experts
• Promotes sustainable human resource development
• Develops and nurtures the capacities of teachers and school managers in Southeast Asia through 20 SEAMEO specialist institutions
Member CountriesMember CountriesIndonesia (1965)
Lao PDR (1965)
Malaysia (1965)
Philippines (1965)
Singapore (1965)
Thailand (1965)
Cambodia (1971)
Brunei Darussalam (1984)
Vietnam (1992)
Myanmar (1998)
Timor-Leste (2006)
Associate MembersAssociate Members
Australia (1973)
France (1973)
New Zealand (1974)
Canada (1988)
Germany (1990)
Netherlands (1993)
Spain (2007)
United Kingdom (2013)
Affiliate MembersAffiliate Members
International Council for Open and Distance Education (1999)
University of Tsukuba (2009)
British Council (2010)
The leading organization for enhancing regional understanding and cooperation in education, science and culture for a better quality of life in Southeast Asia
Vision
To enhance regional understanding, cooperation and unity of purpose among Member Countries for a better quality of life through
– the establishment of networks and partnerships, – the provision of fora among policy makers and experts, and – the promotion of sustainable human resource development
Mission
20 SEAMEO Regional Centresand a Regional Network on Tropical Medicine and Public Health
11 Regional Centres
for Education
2 Regional Centres
for Culture
7 Regional Centres
for Science
1. Innovative Education 2. and Technology 3. Science and 4. Mathematics Education5. Language Education6. Vocational and 7. Technical Education 8. Higher Education9. Special Education 10. Open Learning/ Distance 11. Education 12. Education Management13. Teacher Capacity Building
1. Cultural Development 2. Archaeology 3. Fine Arts 4. History and Traditions
1. Agriculture 2. Tropical Biology3. Natural Resource 4. Management 5. Tropical Medicine 6. Public Health 7. Food and Nutrition
Areas of Expertise Areas of Expertise Areas of Expertise
Futures, Foresight and the Development
of Education in Southeast Asia
Dr Witaya Jeradechakul Director, SEAMEO Secretariat
Bangkok, Thailand
Imagine the Future
https://alumni.tsukuba.ac.jp/
The Futures
1. Not just the Future but Futures
2. Futurists can not predict the future. No one can. A prediction is intended to be true and accurate statement. But we all can forecast futures. A forecast is intended to be logical and useful statement about the futures.
3. Futures studies help institutions and individuals envision, design, and move towards preferred futures rather than passively accepting whatever “will be”.
4. But to be effective the process of forecasting and envisioning must be done continuously and not just a one-shot activity
The Futures and Time Horizon
1. But when is the present, when does the future begin?
2. Most people are only interested in “now”.
3. Some planners and policy-makers may be interested in the next five, ten, or maybe 15 years.
4. Futurists begin to take interest from between 20 to 50—maybe 100—years from now.
5. Beyond 100 years is speculation, imagination and fiction.
The Futures and Time Horizon
administration
planning
futures research
TIMELINE AND DEGREE OF FLUX
DEGREE OF PARTICIPATION
MAGNITUDE OF INTENDED ACTIONS James Dator, University of Hawaii
Plausible versus Preferred Futures
What might happen: trends forecasts, scenarios
We need to understand this
Plausible Futures
Values, mission, vision,Goals, strategies, actions
Dreams and imagination We need to create this
Preferred Futures
Impact and Uncertainty
DriversDrivershigh impact, low uncertaintyhigh impact, low uncertainty
Potential DriversPotential Drivershigh impact, high uncertaintyhigh impact, high uncertainty
Background TrendsBackground Trendslow uncertainty, low impactlow uncertainty, low impact
InconsequentialInconsequentialhigh uncertainty, low impacthigh uncertainty, low impact
high uncertaintylow uncertainty
high impact
low impact
What is Foresight
• Systematic attempts to look into the future (of science, society, economy – and their interactions) in order to promote social, environmental and economic benefit
• Foresight study is a process of anticipating and managing changes
Key Elements of Foresight Study
1. Structured Anticipation
2. Interactive and Participative
3. Methods
4. New networks
5. Strategic Visioning
6. For present day decision and action
7. Social Benefits and Disbenefits
Why Foresight is Important
1. Globalization
2. Constraints on government spending
3. Change in management and industrial production
4. Changes in the structure of and demand for knowledge production
5. Increasing uncertainties for the future
Framework of Foresight
Inputs
Foresight process• Analysis• Interpretation• Prospection
Outputs
Strategy
Strategic scanning of environment/ Delphi
• Emerging issues/ trends analysis• Systematic thinking/ causal layout analysis• Scenarios visioning, backcasting, roadmaps
Reports, presentations, workshops Multimedia
Strategy development and strategic planning
Second Discussion + Analysis
Global picture of Education/ EFA/ MDGs including Issues & Trends
Country Priorities, Issues and Challenges on Education + Regional Initiatives on EFA Goals and MDGs
Consultations using Foresight and 4 Futures
Gap Analysis
Delphi Survey(2 rounds)
Presentation of Findings and the Post-2015 Agenda to SEAMEO Education
Ministers and other Stakeholders
Futures/Preferred/ Worst Case Scenario, etc
Pre-2015 versus Post-2015 – What is missing and what
are the new targets
Selected target groups
Verify the agenda
First Discussion + Analysis (Global versus Country
Issues)
Gap analysis New set of education agenda
Example used by SEAMEO in developing Post-2015
Education agenda
Range of Futures/ Foresight between “Push and Pull”
Foresight about the future of technology aimed at identifying identifying technology for technology for economic and economic and social changesocial change
Foresight about the future of technology aimed at technology .. technology .. and and priority settingpriority setting
Foresight about social and economic needs and ways in which these might be solved with the help of with the help of TechnologyTechnology
Foresight about social and economic needs aimed at identifying ways to alleviate ways to alleviate social and social and economic economic conditionsconditions
PUSH PULL
SEAMEO Consultation and Development of Post-2015 Education Scenarios and Post-EFA Education
Agenda in Southeast Asia
Development of Post-2015 Education Agenda in Southeast Asia
Drivers of change
Emerging Issues &TrendsDemogra
phic ch
ange
Economic growthEnvironment deterioration and sustainability
Social and cultural diversity
ICT Governance
Public health
ASEA
N C
omm
unity
21st Century skills
AchievementsIn Education Challenges
Lifelong learning
Inte
grat
ion
and
mob
ility
Transnatio
nal issu
es
4 GenericFutures
of Manoa School
Post-2015 short (2015-2020) &
long-term (2015-2035)recommendations
to address the 4 future futures
guided by the 4 futures but other parameters such as
the ASEAN Community,
values and cultures Next step: Determining
preferred future
Development of SEAMEO Strategic Plan (2011-2020) Golden SEAMEO
scenario building
Golden SEAMEO scenario
“live and let die” scenario
12 SEAMEO initiativesSEAMEO College S
EA
ME
O C
ongr
ess
mentoring
knowledge management
grouping the initiatives:unique, shared and common
”business as
usual” scenario
key success factors
strategiesstrategic
validation
ImagineImagine there's no heavenIt’s easy if you tryNo hell below usAbove us only skyImagine all the people living for today
Imagine there's no countriesIt isn’t hard to doNothing to kill or die forAnd no religion tooImagine all the people living life in peace
You, you may say I’m a dreamer, but I'm not the only oneI hope some day you'll join usAnd the world will be as one
Imagine
http://www.bretlsimmons.com/2011-07/leadership-foresight/
Imagine no possessionsI wonder if you canNo need for greed or hungerA brotherhood of manImagine all the people sharing all the world
You, you may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only oneI hope some day you'll join usAnd the world will live as one
Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in
Southeast Asia
Dr Witaya Jeradechakul
Director, SEAMEO SecretariatBangkok, Thailand
[email protected] [email protected]
Thank you very much.