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Southern Forest Southern Forest SustainabilitySustainability
David WearDavid WearProject LeaderProject Leader
Southern Research Station, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest ServiceUSDA Forest Service
ObjectiveObjective
Provide an overview of Provide an overview of southern forests—southern forests—conditions, trends, and conditions, trends, and possible futures.possible futures.
……provide a foundation provide a foundation of credible information of credible information upon which to build upon which to build further dialogue…further dialogue…
Scope…Scope…
OrganizationOrganization
Criteria from the Montreal ProcessCriteria from the Montreal Process Biological DiversityBiological Diversity Productive CapacityProductive Capacity Ecosystem Health and VitalityEcosystem Health and Vitality Soil and water resourcesSoil and water resources Global carbon cyclesGlobal carbon cycles Socio-economic benefitsSocio-economic benefits Institutional frameworksInstitutional frameworks
Conservation of biological Conservation of biological diversitydiversity
EcosystemEcosystem SpeciesSpecies GeneticGenetic
Trends in Forest Area for the Trends in Forest Area for the SouthSouth
0
50
100
150
200
250
Million acres
1952 1962 1977 1987 1992 1998
Year
Timberland Reserved & other
Rare Forest CommunitiesRare Forest Communities
Focus of concernsFocus of concerns Disproportionately Disproportionately
high ecological / high ecological / conservation conservation values values (scarcity=value)(scarcity=value)
Spruce-fir Spruce-fir impacted by impacted by multiple changesmultiple changes
Wetlands/bog Wetlands/bog complexes and complexes and pocosinspocosins
Bottomland and Bottomland and floodplain forestsfloodplain forests
Glades, barrens, and Glades, barrens, and prairiesprairies
Longleaf pine Longleaf pine ecosystems.ecosystems.
Atlantic White Cedar Atlantic White Cedar SwampsSwamps
Old-growthOld-growth Spruce-fir forestsSpruce-fir forests
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Million acres
Pine plantation Natural pine Oak–pine
Upland hardwood Lowland hardwood•
Forest Type TrendsForest Type Trends
Forecast Forest Types, Forecast Forest Types, 1995-20401995-2040
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Million acres
PlantedPine
NaturalPine
MixedOak-Pine
UplandHardwood
LowlandHardwood
Agriculture
1995
2020
2040
Forest StructureForest Structure
Forecasting Forecasting fragmentation…fragmentation…
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Birds
Amphibians
Mammals
Reptiles
Presumed/Possibly Extinct (GX/GH) Critically Imperiled (G1)Imperiled (G2) Vulnerable (G3)
Terrestrial SpeciesTerrestrial Species
AmphibiansAmphibians
Biological diversityBiological diversity ObservationsObservations
Highly diverse regionHighly diverse region Demonstration of Demonstration of
resilience resilience Wildlife speciesWildlife species AfforestationAfforestation
Scarcity—rare Scarcity—rare communitiescommunities
Focus on forest-water Focus on forest-water interfaceinterface
QuestionsQuestions Do we have data to Do we have data to
track forest types of track forest types of conservation concern?conservation concern?
Landscape level Landscape level assessment of species assessment of species viabilityviability
Scale dependent—think Scale dependent—think endemicsendemics
Forecasts of ecosystem Forecasts of ecosystem functionfunction
Understanding genetic Understanding genetic diversitydiversity
Conservation and Conservation and maintenance of soil maintenance of soil and water resourcesand water resources
Water Quality by Water Quality by WatershedWatershed
Number of Speciesby Region
1 - 910 - 24
25 - 4950 - 99100 - 104
Regional Concentrations of At-Risk Fish and Mussel Species
Water QualityWater Quality
Point sources32,814 miles
(32%)
Non-point sources70,168 miles
(68%)
Municipal 11,043 miles
Storm sewers/runoff 10,852 miles
Industrial 6,990 miles
Agriculture44,326 miles
Hydrologic/habitat modification8,153 miles
Resource extraction6,554 miles
Channelization2,337 miles
Construction3,434 miles
Silviculture
Soil and Water Soil and Water ResourcesResources
ObservationsObservations Highest quality water Highest quality water
flows from forested flows from forested landscapes.landscapes.
Silvicultural BMP’s do Silvicultural BMP’s do protect soil and water protect soil and water qualityquality
Concerns focus on Concerns focus on mountains and on mountains and on wetlandswetlands
QuestionsQuestions Limited core dataLimited core data Application of BMP’s Application of BMP’s
across an increasingly across an increasingly fragmented landscape?fragmented landscape?
Landscape level linkages Landscape level linkages between land cover and between land cover and water quantitywater quantity
Water demand in the Water demand in the SouthSouth
Links between forest Links between forest condition and ocean condition and ocean fisheriesfisheries
Maintenance of Maintenance of Productive CapacityProductive Capacity
Timber Production in the Timber Production in the SouthSouth
Timber Production by Region
0.00
2000.00
4000.00
6000.00
8000.00
10000.00
12000.00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
mmcf
North
Rockies
Pacific
South
Trends in Forest Area for the Trends in Forest Area for the SouthSouth
0
50
100
150
200
250
Million acres
1952 1962 1977 1987 1992 1998
Year
Timberland Reserved & other
• Current timberland area only 3 million acres lower than 1952.• Forest acreage stable or increasing in last decade.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Billion cubic feet
1952 1962 1977 1987 1992 1998
Hardwood Softwood
Inventory volumesInventory volumes
Softwood Inventory Softwood Inventory Growth and Removals Growth and Removals
1995-20401995-2040
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Year
Inventory (bcf)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Growth or Removals (bcf)
Inventory
Growth
Removals
Hardwood Inventory, Hardwood Inventory, Growth and RemovalsGrowth and Removals
0
40
80
120
160
200
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Year
Inventory (bcf)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Growth or Removals (bcf)
InventoryGrowthRemovals
Changed perspective on Changed perspective on timber marketstimber markets
ObservationsObservations From a premise of From a premise of
timber scarcity…timber scarcity… ……to a premise of to a premise of
market ordermarket order Private landowners Private landowners
are rationalare rational Investment proceeds Investment proceeds
in spite of long in spite of long production periodsproduction periods
Orderly changeOrderly change
QuestionsQuestions Recent shifts in Recent shifts in
ownershipownership
Maintenance of Maintenance of Forest Ecosystem Forest Ecosystem
Health and ViabilityHealth and Viability
Nonnative speciesNonnative species
Native insects and diseases Native insects and diseases with host dynamics…with host dynamics…
Intensified management increases Intensified management increases availability and contiguity of pine—availability and contiguity of pine—host species for Southern Pine Beetle host species for Southern Pine Beetle and fusiform rust.and fusiform rust.
MortalityMortality
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1952 1962 1977 1987 1992 1999
Mortality RatesSoftwood
Mortality RatesHardwood
Forest ecosystem health Forest ecosystem health and viabilityand viability
ObservationsObservations Collection of factors Collection of factors
will influence will influence certain forest typescertain forest types
Hardwood typesHardwood types MountainsMountains
Fire is an important Fire is an important factorfactor
Interactions Interactions between between neighbors--neighbors--especially private especially private and public landand public land
QuestionsQuestions System-level effects System-level effects
of multiple assaultsof multiple assaults Defining range of Defining range of
variabilityvariability Managing with fireManaging with fire
Maintenance of forest Maintenance of forest contributions to contributions to
global carbon cyclesglobal carbon cycles
Potential response to tree Potential response to tree planting programsplanting programs
Maintenance and Maintenance and enhancement of long-enhancement of long-term multiple socio-term multiple socio-economic benefits to economic benefits to
meet the needs of meet the needs of societysociety
Trends in Human Trends in Human PopulationPopulation
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Thousand People
Socio-economic benefitsSocio-economic benefits ObservationsObservations
Population growth will Population growth will outstrip the US averageoutstrip the US average
Recreation demand Recreation demand growth stronggrowth strong
Shift from utilitarian to Shift from utilitarian to biocentric perspective on biocentric perspective on natural resourcesnatural resources
Timber and recreation are Timber and recreation are important sources of important sources of income in rural areasincome in rural areas
QuestionsQuestions Changing Changing
demographics and demographics and demands?demands?
Social impacts in Social impacts in new production new production areas?areas?
Ability to manage in Ability to manage in the WUIthe WUI
Social impacts of Social impacts of production production declines?declines?
Legal, institutional, Legal, institutional, and economic and economic
framework for forest framework for forest conservation and conservation and
sustainable sustainable managementmanagement
Forest industry20%
Nonindustrial private69%
Other public5%
Nationalforest
6%
200 million acres
Forest Ownership in the Forest Ownership in the SouthSouth
TaxesTaxes
Inheritance taxes…Inheritance taxes… Liquidation or parcelizationLiquidation or parcelization
Income taxesIncome taxes Mixed effects on forest managementMixed effects on forest management
Property taxesProperty taxes Differential effects on ownershipsDifferential effects on ownerships
SubsidiesSubsidies
SubsidiesSubsidies Influence behaviorInfluence behavior Small programsSmall programs
Agriculture dominatesAgriculture dominates
Direct RegulationDirect Regulation
Limited in the SouthLimited in the South Voluntary BMP programsVoluntary BMP programs
Local ordinancesLocal ordinances Responses to losses of green spaceResponses to losses of green space Doubled between 1992 and 2000Doubled between 1992 and 2000
Economic StructureEconomic Structure
Price informationPrice information Risk mitigation—e.g., fireRisk mitigation—e.g., fire Investment in long run productionInvestment in long run production
InstitutionsInstitutions
FederalFederalStateStateNongovernmental organizationsNongovernmental organizations
Frameworks for assessment and broad Frameworks for assessment and broad scale evaluationsscale evaluations
Certification programsCertification programs
Legal, institutional, and Legal, institutional, and economic frameworkseconomic frameworks
ObservationsObservations Well functioning markets Well functioning markets
for timber productsfor timber products Responsiveness Responsiveness
demonstrateddemonstrated Longleaf restorationLongleaf restoration Conservation easementsConservation easements Red Cockaded Red Cockaded
woodpeckerwoodpecker Ecological concerns have Ecological concerns have
not been avoidednot been avoided
QuestionsQuestions Can institutional Can institutional
arrangement work arrangement work to avoid problems?to avoid problems?
Can current Can current institutions work in institutions work in a fragmented a fragmented landscape?landscape?
Does rural-focused Does rural-focused delivery work in a delivery work in a wildland urban wildland urban interface?interface?
Concluding...Concluding...
More than dataMore than data But C and I can help focus data But C and I can help focus data
collection…collection…
Criteria and Indicator Criteria and Indicator CrosswalkCrosswalk
CriterionCriterion Number of Number of IndicatorsIndicators
Available in Available in SFRASFRA
1 Diversity1 Diversity 99 77
2 Productive 2 Productive CapacityCapacity
55 55
3 Health and 3 Health and vitalityvitality
33 22
4 Soil and Water4 Soil and Water 88 22
5 Carbon5 Carbon 33 33
6 6 SocioeconomicSocioeconomic
1919 88
7 Institutions7 Institutions 2020 33
Concluding… (really)Concluding… (really)
Aggregate analysis can mask Aggregate analysis can mask important dynamics—what is the best important dynamics—what is the best scale?scale? NationNation RegionRegion ????????
Current changes may progress rapidlyCurrent changes may progress rapidly Argues for ongoing discussion…Argues for ongoing discussion…
Thanks for Listening…Thanks for Listening…