S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & … 5, 2018 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings &...

Stock Market Briefing:S&P 500/400/600 Weekly

Forward Earnings & ValuationYardeni Research, Inc.

May 16, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

May 16, 2018 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings 3S&P 500/400/600 Annual Revenues 4S&P 500/400/600 Annual Margins 5S&P 500 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 6S&P 400 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 7S&P 600 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 8S&P 500/400/600 2018 Quarterly Earnings 9S&P 500/400/600 2018 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth 10S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings 11S&P 500/400/600 Forward Revenues & Margins 12S&P 500/400/600 P/Es 13S&P 500/400/600 P/Sales 14S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 15S&P 400 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 16S&P 600 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 17S&P 500/400/600 Blue Angels 18S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings 19S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Earnings 20S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2018 21S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2019 22S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 23S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues 24S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 25S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 26S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales 27S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 28S&P 500 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index 29S&P 400 Sectors Forward Earnings 30S&P 400 Sectors Forward Revenues 31S&P 400 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 32S&P 400 Sectors Forward P/Es 33S&P 400 Sectors Forward P/Sales 34S&P 400 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 35

continued...

May 16, 2018 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation www.yardeni.com


S&P 400 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index 36S&P 600 Sectors Forward Earnings 37S&P 600 Sectors Forward Revenues 38S&P 600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 39S&P 600 Sectors Forward P/Es 40S&P 600 Sectors Forward P/Sales 41S&P 600 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 42S&P 600 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index 43S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 44S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Es 45S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Sales 46

Figure 1.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202050

75

100

125

150

175

200

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2018 2019 Frwd May 3 160.14 175.48 165.45 May 10 160.40 175.72 166.00

17 1819

5/10

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts

Annual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202025

45

65

85

105

125

145

25

45

65

85

105

125

145

2018 2019 Frwd May 3 111.44 124.90 116.10 May 10 111.87 125.27 116.77

17 18

19 5/10

S&P 400

Consensus Forecasts

Annual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202010

20

30

40

50

60

70

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2018 2019 Frwd May 3 52.51 61.30 55.55 May 10 52.93 61.82 56.18

1718

195/10

S&P 600

Consensus Forecasts

Annual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings

Page 3 / May 16, 2018 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation www.yardeni.com


Figure 2.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

18

19 5/10

17

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual RevenuesForward Revenues*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1819 5/10

17

S&P 400


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019350

475

600

725

850

975

1100

350

475

600

725

850

975

1100

17

18

19

5/10S&P 600


* Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Annual Revenues



Figure 3.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20196

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1819

5/1017

S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

Consensus Forecasts

Forward Margins* (12.2)

Annual Margins

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20194

5

6

7

8

9

4

5

6

7

8

9

18

195/10

17

S&P 400

Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193

4

5

6

7

3

4

5

6

7

17

18

195/10

yardeni.com

S&P 600

Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

S&P 500/400/600 Annual Margins



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202050

75

100

125

150

175

200

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2018 2019 Frwd May 3 160.14 175.48 165.45 May 10 160.40 175.72 166.00

17 18

195/10

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

I II III IV I II III IV I II2017 2018 2019

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 37.92 38.98 40.81 42.42 May 10 38.09 38.92 40.78 42.49

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2018 By Quarter as of 05/10/18

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: QUARTERLY FORECASTS 2018(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly)

Figure 5.

S&P 500 Annual & Quarterly Earnings



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202025

45

65

85

105

125

145

25

45

65

85

105

125

145

2018 2019 Frwd May 3 111.44 124.90 116.10 May 10 111.87 125.27 116.77

17 18

19 5/10

S&P 400 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE*(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual

52-Week Forward*

* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.


22

24

26

28

30

32

22

24

26

28

30

32

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 24.77 27.47 29.44 30.19 May 10 25.30 27.25 29.48 30.31

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4



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S&P 400 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2018(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Figure 7.




2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202010

20

30

40

50

60

70

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2018 2019 Frwd May 3 52.51 61.30 55.55 May 10 52.93 61.82 56.18

1718

195/10

S&P 600 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

52-Week Forward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.


10

11

12

13

14

15

16

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 10.88 12.93 13.76 15.10 May 10 11.29 12.78 13.70 15.13

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4



yardeni.com

S&P 600 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2018(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Figure 9.




Figure 10.


32

34

36

38

40

42

44

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 37.92 38.98 40.81 42.42 May 10 38.09 38.92 40.78 42.49

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4


S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2018(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)


22

24

26

28

30

32

22

24

26

28

30

32

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 24.77 27.47 29.44 30.19 May 10 25.30 27.25 29.48 30.31

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4


S&P 400


10

11

12

13

14

15

16

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 10.88 12.93 13.76 15.10 May 10 11.29 12.78 13.70 15.13 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4



yardeni.com

S&P 600

S&P 500/400/600 2018 Quarterly Earnings



Figure 11.


8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 22.7 19.6 22.0 17.8 May 10 23.3 19.5 21.9 18.0

Q1

Q2

Q3


S&P 500 CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2018(consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)

Q4


10

15

20

25

30

10

15

20

25

30

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 22.0 18.6 26.1 18.8 May 10 24.6 17.7 26.3 19.2

Q1

Q2Q3


S&P 400

Q4


15

20

25

30

35

40

15

20

25

30

35

40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May 3 25.1 32.9 38.8 25.5 May 10 29.8 31.3 38.2 25.8

Q1

Q2Q3Q4



yardeni.com

S&P 600

S&P 500/400/600 2018 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019150

550

950

1350

1750

2150

2550

29503350

150

550

950

1350

1750

2150

2550

29503350

5/15S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(daily, ratio scale)

S&P Stock Price IndexesS&P 500 LargeCap (2711.45)S&P 400 MidCap (1930.67)S&P 600 SmallCap (982.43)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201910

35

60

85

110

135

160

185

10

35

60

85

110

135

160

1855/10S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (166.00)S&P 400 MidCap (116.77)S&P 600 SmallCap (56.18)


yardeni.com

Figure 13.

S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019275

475

675

875

1075

1275

1475

1675

275

475

675

875

1075

1275

1475

1675

5/10

S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD REVENUES(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Forward Revenues*S&P 500 LargeCap (1350)S&P 400 MidCap (1490)S&P 600 SmallCap (988)


yardeni.com

Figure 14.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

5/10

yardeni.com

S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS*(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

S&P 500 (12.2)S&P 400 (7.5)S&P 600 (5.4)

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 15.

S&P 500/400/600 Forward Revenues & Margins



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

5/11

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*(weekly)

S&P 500 LargeCap (16.4)S&P 400 MidCap (16.6)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.6)

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

5/15

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)


* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

S&P 500/400/600 P/Es



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

5/10

FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(weekly)


* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

5/15

FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)


* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

S&P 500/400/600 P/Sales



Figure 20.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

18

19 5/10

17

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201950

75

100

125

150

175

200

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

5/10

17 1819

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual EarningsForward Earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20196

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1819

5/1017

yardeni.com


Consensus Forecasts

Forward Margins* (12.2)Annual Margins


S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins



Figure 21.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1819 5/10

17

S&P 400


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201930

50

70

90

110

130

30

50

70

90

110

130

5/10

17 18

19S&P 400 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20194

5

6

7

8

9

4

5

6

7

8

9

18

195/10

17

yardeni.com


Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins





Figure 22.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019350

475

600

725

850

975

1100

350

475

600

725

850

975

1100

17

18

19

5/10S&P 600 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual Revenues

Forward Revenues*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201915

25

35

45

55

65

15

25

35

45

55

65

5/10

1718

19

S&P 600 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193

4

5

6

7

3

4

5

6

7

17

18

195/10

yardeni.com


Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins





Figure 23.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

x10

x12

x14

x16

x18

x20S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATIONS&P 50005/15/18

S&P 500 Blue AngelsImplied Price Index*05/10/18

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

x10

x12

x14

x16

X18

X20S&P 40005/15/18


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

x10

x12

x14

x16

x18

x20

x22

S&P 50005/15/18 05/15/18


* Implied stock price index calculated using actual 52-week consensus expected forward earnings times hypothetical forward P/Es.Source: Standard & Poors and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Blue Angels



79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

35

60

85

110

135

160

185210

10

35

60

85

110

135

160

185210

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS& REVENUES PER SHARE

(ratio scale)

5/10

ForwardEarnings* (166.0)

ForwardRevenues*Divided by 10 (135.0)

7% GrowthRate**

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.** Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

11

12 1314

15

18

19

16

17

yardeni.com


S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS ANNUAL GROWTH FORECASTS*(based on analysts’ consensus estimates, percent, weekly)

2011 (14.9)2012 (6.0)2013 (6.1)2014 (7.0)2015 (0.5)2016 (1.5)2017 (11.2)2018 (21.5)2019 (9.7)

Latest data thru 05/10/18

Figure 25.

S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings



Figure 26.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

5/10

S&P 500 SECTORS:FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*

Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrials

Information TechnologyMaterialsReal EstateTelecommunication ServicesUtilities


-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5/10

S&P 400 SECTORS: Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrials



-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

5/10

S&P 600 SECTORS: Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrials


* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Earnings



Figure 27.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II2016 2017 2018 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

5/10

S&P 500 SECTORS:2018 EARNINGS PER SHARE*

Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth Care

IndustrialsInformation TechnologyMaterialsReal EstateTelecommunication ServicesUtilities


-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

5/10

S&P 400 SECTORS: Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth Care



-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

5/10



* Consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2018



Figure 28.


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

5/10

S&P 500 SECTORS:2019 EARNINGS PER SHARE*

Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth Care



-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

5/10




-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

5/10



* Consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2019



Figure 29.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1960

90

120

150

180210

18 19 5/10S&P 500(forward earnings*)

Annual consensusestimatesForward earnings

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1913

19

25

31

3743

1819 5/10INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

17

29

4153

18 19 5/10CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

30

45

60

75

1819 5/10INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1913

19

25

31

37

18 19 5/10CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196

11

16

21

26

1819 5/10MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

28

48

6888

108

18 195/10

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

3

5

79

19 5/1017 18REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

20

32

4456

1819 5/10

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 197

9

11

13

15

17

1819

5/10TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920

35

50

65

80

18 19 5/10HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average (in blue) of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1911

12

13

14

15

161718

1819 5/10

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings



Figure 30.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19800

950

1100

1250

1400

1550

1819 5/10

S&P 500(forward revenues*)

Forward revenues*

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19210

260

310

360

410

1819 5/10INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250

325

400

475

550

625


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19125

175

225

275

325

1819 5/10INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

275

350

425

500

1819

5/10

CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19160

180

200

220

240

18 195/10

MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19275

375

475

575

675

775

18 19 5/10

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920

25

30

35

40

45

5/1018

REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19120

160

200

240

280

18

19 5/10

FINANCIALS


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1995

105

115

125

135

18

19 5/10

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175

275

375

475

575675


*Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19120

135

150

165

180

18 19

5/10

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues



Figure 31.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

17 18 195/10S&P 500

(profit margin, percent)

AnnualForward* (12.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196

8

10

12

1718 19 5/10

INDUSTRIALS

(10.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

3

5

7

9

11

1718 19 5/10

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(8.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

17 18 195/10

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(22.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

17 18 19

5/10

CONSUMER STAPLES

(7.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194

6

8

10

12

14

1718

19 5/10

MATERIALS

(11.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

3

6

9

12

15

17 18 195/10

ENERGY

(6.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196

9

12

15

18

21

24

5/1017 18 19

REAL ESTATE

(15.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194

8

12

16

20

24

18 19 5/1017

FINANCIALS

(18.7)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196

8

10

12

14

1718 19

5/10TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

(13.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 199.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

17 18 19

5/10

HEALTH CARE

(10.5)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

9

10

11

12

13

17

18

195/10UTILITIES

(12.3)yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin



Figure 32.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

10

12

14

16

18

20

5/10

S&P 500(forward P/E) P/E (16.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

11

14

17

20

23

5/10

INDUSTRIALS(16.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

30

5/10


(19.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

12

16

20

24

5/10

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(18.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

12

14

16

18

20

22

5/10

CONSUMER STAPLES(16.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

MATERIALS(15.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

15

25

35

45

55

65

5/10

ENERGY(19.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

25

35

45

55

65

75

5/10

REAL ESTATE(37.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

5/10

FINANCIALS


(12.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

5/10

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(9.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

10

12

14

16

18

20

5/10

HEALTH CARE

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

(14.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

10

12

14

16

18

20

5/10

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(15.7)

S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es



Figure 33.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

5/10

S&P 500(forward P/S ratio)

P/S (2.00)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

5/10INDUSTRIALS

(1.66)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.4

.7

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

5/10CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(1.60)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.55/10INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(4.15)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

5/10

MATERIALS(1.82)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

5/10

ENERGY(1.33)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

5/10

REAL ESTATE(6.01)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

5/10

FINANCIALS


(2.41)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

5/10

HEALTH CARE

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

(1.54)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

5/10

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(1.93)

S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales



Figure 34.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-50

-30

-10

10

30

AprS&P 500

Net Earnings Revisions Index*NERI (13.9)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

Apr

INDUSTRIALS

(17.8)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Apr


(11.4)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Apr


(22.0)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40

-20

0

20

40

Apr

CONSUMER STAPLES

(13.8)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Apr

MATERIALS

(16.9)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Apr

ENERGY

(14.2)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr

REAL ESTATE

(-15.2)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Apr

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016(11.2)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40

-20

0

20

40

Apr


(13.8)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

HEALTH CARE

* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

(15.6)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40

-20

0

20

40

Apr

UTILITIES

(0.8)

S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index



Figure 35.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr

S&P 500

Net Revenue Revisions Index*NERI (14.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

AprINDUSTRIALS

(21.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr


(12.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Apr


(16.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

CONSUMER STAPLES

(11.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

AprMATERIALS

(20.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Apr

ENERGY

(9.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr

REAL ESTATE

(0.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20AprFINANCIALS

(14.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Apr


(9.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20AprHEALTH CARE


(16.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr

UTILITIES

(-8.1)

S&P 500 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index



Figure 36.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930

50

70

90

110130

1819 5/10S&P 400

(forward earnings)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

25

35

45

5565

1819 5/3INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 199

24

39

5469


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930

70

110

150

1819 5/3INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925

55

85

11518 19 5/3CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 199

19

29

39

49

1819

5/3MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

18 19 5/3

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192

4

6

8

10

19 5/1017

18REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

35

55

7595

18

195/3FINANCIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

18

195/3

TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

35

55

7595

115

1819 5/3HEALTH CARE


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1913

17

21

25

29

1819 5/3UTILITIES

yardeni.com




Figure 37.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19600

800

1000

1200

1400

160018 19 5/10S&P 400

(forward revenues*)

Annual consensusestimatesForward revenues

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19300

500

700

900

1100

1819 5/3

INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250

450

650

850

10501250


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19500

900

1300

1700

210018

195/3INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19600

1200

1800

2400

3000

1819

5/3

CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

300

400

500

600

18

19 5/3MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250

500

750

100012501500

1819 5/3

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925

35

45

55

6519

5/10

17 18

REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

250

300

350

400

450

18

195/3FINANCIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

350

600

8501100

1819

5/3


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

600

1000

14001800


* Time-weighted average (in blue) of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates (in red).Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

250

300

350

1819

5/3

UTILITIES

yardeni.com




Figure 38.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194

5

6

7

8

9

1819

5/10

17

S&P 400(profit margin)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193

4

5

6

7

8

17

18 19 5/3

INDUSTRIALS

(6.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193

4

5

6

7

8

17 18 195/3


(6.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193

4

5

6

7

8

9

17 18

195/3


(7.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192

3

4

5

6

7

17 18

195/3

CONSUMER STAPLES

(5.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194

5

6

7

8

9

17 1819

5/3

MATERIALS

(7.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1718 19 5/3

ENERGY(2.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

5/1017

18

19

REAL ESTATE

(13.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 196

9

12

15

18

21

1819

5/317

FINANCIALS

(17.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-4

0

4

8

12

17 1819

5/3


(1.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194

5

6

7

8

17

18

19 5/3

HEALTH CARE

(7.0)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194

6

8

10

12

1718

19 5/3UTILITIES

(10.6) yardeni.com




Figure 39.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

5/10

S&P 400(forward P/E)

P/E (17.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

INDUSTRIALS(17.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

5/10


(14.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

MATERIALS(12.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

20

40

60

80

5/10

ENERGY(35.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

20

30

40

50

60

5/10

REAL ESTATE(30.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

5/10

FINANCIALS(14.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195101520253035404550


(40.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

30

5/10

HEALTH CARE


(19.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

12

16

20

24

5/10

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(19.3)




Figure 40.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

5/10

S&P 400(forward P/S ratio)

P/S (1.29)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

5/10

INDUSTRIALS(1.13)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

5/10


(0.86)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

5/10

MATERIALS(0.98)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

5/10

ENERGY(0.74)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

2

3

4

5

6

7

5/10

REAL ESTATE(4.12)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

5/10

FINANCIALS(2.44)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

5/10

HEALTH CARE


(1.36)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

5/10

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(2.09)




Figure 41.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

AprS&P 400


04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

AprINDUSTRIALS

(14.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr


(10.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr


(13.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

CONSUMER STAPLES

(3.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-50-40-30-20-100102030

AprMATERIALS

(12.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr

ENERGY

(-3.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-50-40-30-20-100102030

Apr

REAL ESTATE

(-6.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr

FINANCIALS

(9.2)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

AprTELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

(23.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr

HEALTH CARE


(8.1)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr

UTILITIES

(5.3)




Figure 42.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

S&P 400


04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30AprINDUSTRIALS

(20.8)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr


(6.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr


(10.8)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr

CONSUMER STAPLES

(5.1)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

AprMATERIALS

(22.2)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr

ENERGY

(-6.1)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr

REAL ESTATE

(-8.2)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr

FINANCIALS

(4.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Apr


(19.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr

HEALTH CARE


(4.8)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr

UTILITIES

(-14.1)




Figure 43.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

20

30

405060

18 19 5/10S&P 600(forward earnings)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

30

45

60

75

5/318 19

INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

15

25

3545

5/318 19CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

20

35

5065

5/318

19INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

35

55

7595

1155/318 19CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

15

25

3545

5/318 19MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-50-25

0255075

100125150

5/3

1819

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5

5.5

10.515.520.5

19 5/1017 18

REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

30

50

7090

5/3

1819FINANCIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-.25

.00

.25

.50

.75

1.00

5/318 19

TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

40

65

90115

5/318 19HEALTH CARE


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920

30

40

50

5/31819UTILITIES

yardeni.com




Figure 44.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19300

450

600

750

9001050

1819

5/10S&P 600(forward revenues*)

Annual consensusestimatesForward revenues

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19400

600

800

1000

12001400

1819

5/3INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19300

550

800

1050

1300


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19125

225

325

425

525625

18 19

5/3INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19600

1600

2600

360046005600

18

19 5/3CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19300

400

500

600

700

800

1819 5/3MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250

1250

2250

32504250

18 19 5/3

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1925

30

35

40

45

5055

195/1017

18

REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

300

400

500

600700

18

19 5/3

FINANCIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

6

111621

18 19

5/3


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250

750

1250

175022502750

1819

5/3HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average (in blue) of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates (in red).Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19250

325

400

475

550625700

1819 5/3

UTILITIES

yardeni.com




Figure 45.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193

4

5

6

7

8

1819 5/10

17

S&P 600(profit margin)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193

4

5

6

1718

19 5/3

INDUSTRIALS

(4.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

2

3

4

5

6

17

18 19 5/3


(3.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1934567891011

1718

19

5/3


(7.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

2

3

4

5

17

18

195/3

CONSUMER STAPLES

(2.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192

3

4

5

6

7

17 1819 5/3

MATERIALS

(4.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1718

195/3

ENERGY

(4.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

5

10

15

20

25

30

1718

5/10

REAL ESTATE

(11.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

17 18 195/3

FINANCIALS

(17.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5

0

5

10

15

17 1819

5/3


(-0.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1718

195/3

HEALTH CARE

(3.9)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194

6

8

10

12

17

1819 5/3

UTILITIES

(10.3) yardeni.com




Figure 46.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 198

12

16

20

24

5/10

S&P 600(forward P/E)

P/E (18.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

INDUSTRIALS(17.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

5/10

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(15.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

MATERIALS(15.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

20

40

60

80

5/10

ENERGY(35.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

20

30

40

50

60

70

5/10

REAL ESTATE(36.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

5/10

FINANCIALS(14.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195101520253035404550


(NA)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19101520253035404550

5/10

HEALTH CARE


(31.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

30

5/10

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(22.7)




Figure 47.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

5/10

S&P 600(forward P/S ratio by sector)

P/S (0.99)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.4

.6

.8

1.0

5/10

INDUSTRIALS(0.85)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

5/10


(0.55)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

5/10

MATERIALS(0.73)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

5/10

ENERGY(1.01)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

2

3

4

5

6

7

5/10

REAL ESTATE(3.97)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

5/10

FINANCIALS(2.60)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

5/10


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

5/10

HEALTH CARE


(1.23)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

5/10

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(2.28)




Figure 48.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

AprS&P 600


04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr

INDUSTRIALS

(12.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr


(6.1)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr


(5.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

CONSUMER STAPLES

(8.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr

MATERIALS

(8.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr

ENERGY

(2.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

REAL ESTATE

(-10.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr

FINANCIALS

(5.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr


(-4.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AprHEALTH CARE


(9.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20-15-10-505101520

Apr

UTILITIES

(-4.1)




Figure 49.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

S&P 600


04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

AprINDUSTRIALS

(13.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr


(3.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Apr


(6.8)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

CONSUMER STAPLES

(-1.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Apr

MATERIALS

(21.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Apr

ENERGY

(5.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

REAL ESTATE

(-2.2)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-20

-10

0

10

20

Apr

FINANCIALS

(1.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Apr


(-14.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Apr

HEALTH CARE


(4.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Apr

UTILITIES

(-13.1)




Figure 50.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

5/10S&P 500/400/600(profit margin)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

3

5

7

9

115/10INDUSTRIALS

(10.2)(6.6)(4.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

3

5

7


(8.3)(6.1)(3.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

5

10

15

20

255/10INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(22.7)(7.0)(7.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2

4

6

8

10

12

5/10

CONSUMER STAPLES (7.7)(5.2)(2.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

2

4

6

8

10

125/10MATERIALS

(11.4)(7.7)(4.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

5/10

ENERGY(6.8)(2.1)(4.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

5

10

15

20

25

30

5/10

REAL ESTATE

(15.9)(13.6)(11.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

FINANCIALS(18.7)(17.2)(17.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-5

0

5

10

15

20

5/10

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(13.4)(1.0)(-0.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 193

6

9

12

15

5/10

HEALTH CARE (10.5)(7.1)(3.9)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194

6

8

10

12

14

5/10UTILITIES

(12.3)(10.8)(10.0) yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin



Figure 51.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

S&P 500/400/600(forward P/Es)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

INDUSTRIALS

(16.3)(17.0)(17.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

30

5/10


(19.4)(14.0)(15.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

30

5/10


(18.3)(18.2)(17.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

15

20

25

5/10

CONSUMER STAPLES(16.3)(17.2)(18.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

MATERIALS

(15.9)(12.8)(15.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

10

20

30

40

50

5/10

ENERGY(19.5)(35.3)(20.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1910

20

30

40

50

60

70

5/10

REAL ESTATE

(37.7)(30.3)(36.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

30

35

5/10

FINANCIALS(12.9)(14.2)(14.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

10

20

30

40

50

60

5/10

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(9.8)(40.0)(NA)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

10

20

30

40

50

5/10

HEALTH CARE(14.6)(19.3)(31.7)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 195

10

15

20

25

5/10

UTILITIES

(15.7)(19.3)(22.7) yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Es



Figure 52.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

5/10S&P 500/400/600(forward P/Sales)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.00.25.50.751.001.251.501.752.00

5/10INDUSTRIALS

(1.66)(1.13)(0.85)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0

.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0


(1.60)(0.86)(0.55)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.00

.75

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

4.505/10INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(4.15)(1.27)(1.24)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.00

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

5/10

CONSUMER STAPLES

(1.25)(0.89)(0.38)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.25.50.751.001.251.501.752.002.25

5/10MATERIALS

(1.82)(0.98)(0.73)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

5/10

ENERGY (1.33)(0.74)(1.01)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

5/10

REAL ESTATE

(6.0)(4.1)(4.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

5/10

FINANCIALS (2.41)(2.44)(2.60)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

5/10

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(1.31)(0.53)(0.62)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

5/10

HEALTH CARE

(1.54)(1.36)(1.23)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

5/10

UTILITIES(1.93)(2.09)(2.28)

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Sales



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