Volker Liebig

Director, ESA Earth Observation Programmes

19 October 2009

Space activities and the Arctic: Present and Future

Arctic: ice-free by 2nd half of 21st C.Permafrost: up to 90% melting until 2100 Precipitation: decrease in arid regions and increase in wet areasStorms: significantly strongerGulf Stream: weakened Sea level rise: up to 26-59 cm until 2100

Global temperature increase between + 2.4 and 6.4 degrees until 2100

IPCC Report 2007

The challenge of Climate Change

Satellite measurements over the Arctic

Lowest Arctic ice coverage in historyLowest Arctic ice coverage in historyESA is devoting about half of its

ASAR radar instrument resources to polar area acquisitions

In 2007, ASAR data showed that Arctic sea ice had shrunk to its lowest level since satellites began monitoring the area 30 years ago

In 2008, ASAR data revealed that the NE and NW Passages were open simultaneously for the first time since satellite measurements began

Radar Altimeter measured sea ice thickness over the Arctic from 2002 to 2008: declined by 19% in 2007 compared to the previous 5 winters

Arctic

Sea and Land Sea and Land Ice extentIce extent

Global Sea Surface Global Sea Surface TemperatureTemperature

Global Sea Global Sea Level RiseLevel Rise

Measurement of Residual Trends in Global Sea Surface Temperature

AVHRR datatrend: 0.09°K / decade

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

ERS / Envisat Trend: +0.13°K / decade

ERS / Envisat Trend: +0.13°K / decade

Global Sea Level ChangeGlobal Sea Level Change

Image: APA (Vienna)

South Greenland[Envisat MERIS – 16 Feb 2006] © ESA

Examples in Images…

Greenland mass balance 1996-2005

Mass deficit:83±30 Gt/yr in

1996 205±37 Gt/yr in

2005

2/3rd of loss due to dynamic thinning

Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Science vol. 311 no. 5763, pp. 986-990 Courtesy of Rignot & Kanagaratnam,

“Greenland’s contribution to sea level rise has been doubling between 1995 and 2005” –Eric Rignot, JPL

Accelerated break-up of the Wilkins Ice Shelf

1992 2008

Break-up event May-July 2008: ca. 1350km2 loss

During Southern hemispheric winter!

Warm water beneath halocline may thin the Ice Shelf rapidly

Antarctic

Retreating Larsen ice shelf[1986-2002] © IMGI (Austria)

Examples in Images…

Wikipedia

Examples of satellite-based / -aided services in the Arctic region

Sea ice monitoring and forecastingIce (thickness) chartsIceberg and ice edge monitoringSea ice drift trajectoriesRiver ice and lake ice monitoringGlacier monitoringSnow ice monitoring

Services

Ice drift map

Ice chart

Ice Service

Satellite snow maps help reindeer herders adapt to a changing Arctic

Circumpolar snow information becomes increasingly important following the changes in Arctic climatePolar View provides snow melt maps for Norway and Sweden and Eurasia snow cover mapsPolar View is supported by ESA and the EC with participation from CSA

Snow maps

Snow depth map - Arctic

Earth Observation Activities of ESA

Earth Observation Envelope Programme

Earthnet / Third Party Missions

International cooperation

ERS & ENVISAT Missions

Charter on Space & Major Disasters

Meteorological missions

GMES

Climate Change Initiative

METEOSAT Second GenerationMSG-1, -2, -3

METEOSATM-1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

METOP-1, -2, -3

Earth Watch

Earth Explorers

ERS-1, -2

1990 2000 2009 2010 2030

ENVISAT

GOCE

GMES in cooperation with EC

SMOS

(Gravity and Ocean Circulation Explorer)

Earthnet: European access to non-ESA missions: Landsat, SeaWifs, NOAA, JERS, MODIS, ALOS, Proba, Bird, Scisat...

European users

Since 1977

Sentinel 1Sentinel 2

to better understand the EarthSystem

in cooperationwith EUMETSAT

Meteo

ApplicationsServices

to initiate long term monitoring systems

and servicesSentinel 4/5

Science(Gravity and Ocean Circulation Explorer)

(Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity)

CryoSat2 (Polar IceMonitoring)

ADM/Aeolus (Atmospheric Dynamics Mission)

SWARM (Magnetic Mission)

EarthCare (Clouds, Aerosols & Radiation Mission)

Sentinel 3

EO missions handled by ESA

MTG

GOCE (Gravity field and steady state Ocean Circulation Explorer))

First ESA Earth Explorermost sensitive gradiometer ever flown, first drag-free flight with Ion thrusters, extremely low orbitLaunched 17 March 2009Reached operational orbit on 15 September, stabilisation at 255km1st Measurement phasefrom 2nd half of September until March 2010

.

ESA’s Gravity Mission

ESA’s Gravity Mission

Examples of Scientific Applications

ESA’s Gravity Mission

Gravity field map and improved global geoid models

Improved understanding of ocean circulation and energy distribution

Global unification of height systems

Objectives:- to provide global maps of soil moisture and ocean salinity- to advance our understanding of the freshwater cycle - to improve climate, weather and extreme-event forecasting

ESA’s Water mission

Examples of Scientific Applications

ESA’s Water Mission

Improvedmanagement of water resources

Improved modelsof the global watercycle

Monitoring and modelling of oceancirculation

To improve the understanding of:

- thickness and mass fluctuations of polar land and marine ice- rates of ice thinning / thickening due to climate variations

ESA’s Ice mission

Mosaic of Antarctica[Envisat ASAR] © ESA

Examples in Images…

ESA’s Ice Mission

CryoSat Sea Ice Measurements

Expected Scientific Output

ESA’s Ice Mission

regional trends in Arctic perennial sea-ice thickness and mass

Determination of the contribution of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to mean global sea level rise

the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice mass and thickness

the variation in the thickness of the Earth's ice caps and glaciers

Subglacial Lakes in Antarctica

Credit: Bristol Glaciology Centre

Total volume of water held beneath the ice sheet is estimated between 4000 and 12,000 km3 in about 70 subglacial lakes

The largest, and most well documented is Lake Vostok

Subglacial lakes were first identified with airborne radio-echo sounding

BIOMASS: single satellite carrying a P-band SAR to provide continuous global interferometric and polarimetric radar observations of forested areas.

CoReH2O / Snow mission: single satellite with dual frequency (X, Ku), dual-polarisation SAR to observe snow / ice at high spatial resolution

PREMIER: 3D fields of atmospheric composition in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The instrumentation will consist of an infrared limb-imaging spectrometer and a mm-wave limb-sounder.

Earth Explorer 7

Call for Earth Explorer 8

Call issued on 2 Oct. 2009 with letter of intent until 1 December 2009 and receipt of full proposals by 1 June 2010Earth Explorer-8 Opportunity mission with a ceiling industrial cost of 100 MEURO at 2009 e.c.Small mission or a guest payload on a non-ESA missionUp to 3 candidates will be selected for feasibility studies

Earth Explorer 8

GSC

The GMES Space Component Programme

+ Ground Segment and Coordination (data access to contributing missions)

National, Eumetsat and Third Party Missions for GMES (excerpt)

GMES: Joint Infrastructure

TopSat

CosmoSkymed

SPOT

Rapideye

UK-DMC

Pleiades Jason-2

METOPRadarsat

Terrasar-X

Fast Track Services

Services: From ESA to EC

Emergency Respond

Land Monitoring

Marine Services

Atmosphere (Pilot)

Security (Pilot)

GMES Service Element

100 M100 M€€ by ESA MSby ESA MS

Period 2003Period 2003--2008 (2009)2008 (2009)

330+ user organisations330+ user organisations

EC has invested another EC has invested another 100 M100 M€€

Availability – Reliability - Affordability

Launch schedule of ESA EO missions

To realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA together with its Member states have established over the last thirty years, as a significant and timely contribution to the ECV databases required by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

CCI – Programme Objectives

ESA Initiative on Climate Change

The rationale of the initiative :to systematically generate and distribute long-term series of “Essential Climate Variables” (ECV) to meet needs of UNFCCC and IPCC, based on ESA archived EO data

ECV Records: Quantifying the state of the Climate system to (a) advance our knowledge, and (b) support work of UNFCCC and IPCC for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Output :

Resources :6 years / 75 Million Euro

Satellite-based ECVs

Surface( 0, 0, 6 )

Air Temperature; Precipitation ; Air pressure; Water vapour; Surface radiation budget; Wind Speed & direction;

Upper air( 1, 1, 3 )

Cloud properties, Wind speed & directionEarth radiation budget; Upper-air temperature; Water vapour;

Composition( 3, 0, 0 )

Carbon dioxide Methane & other GHGs; Ozone; Aerosol properties

Surface( 4, 2, 1 )

Sea-surface Temp; Sea-level; Sea-ice; Ocean colour;Sea state; Sea-surface salinityCarbon dioxide partial pressure

Sub-surface( 0, 0 , 7 )

Temperature; Salinity; Current; Nutrients; Carbon; Ocean tracers; Phytoplankton

Terrestrial( 3, 7, 4 )

Glaciers & ice caps; Land Cover; Fire disturbanceFraction of absorbed photo-synthetically active radiation; LAI , AlbedoBiomass, Lake levels, Snow cover, Soil moistureWater use, Ground water, River dischargePermafrost and seasonally-frozen ground

Ocean

Atmosphere

CCI First Steps (11 ECVs) : Later in CCI (10 ECVs) : Not in CCI (24 ECVs)

COP-15

UN Climate Change Conference 2009