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Space Tourism
And
Sustainable Development
Steven Fawkes
29th November 2006
BIS European Developments
in Space Tourism Conference
Space Tourism and Sustainable Development
may seem incompatible but…links on five levels:
• operational
• cultural
• economic
• resources
• survival
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1986: 1st market study
1985: Society Expeditions/Phoenix
1996: X Prize announced
1998: Space Adventures formed
2001: Denis Tito flight to ISS
2004: SpaceShipOne first private spaceflight
2006: Spaceport developments
1968: Seminal papers by Hilton &
Ehricke
1972: Club of Rome report
1962: Silent Spring by
Rachel Carson
1970: US EPA formed
1990: 1st IGPCC report on global
warming1997: Kyoto
Protocol
2005: GE launch Ecomagination & Walmart launches
sustainability objectives
1995: Brent Spar
1973: 1st oil crisis
2000: 50% population
live in cities
Space Tourism and Sustainable Development Timelines
Sustainable Development
“development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”
MAJOR INTERCONNECTED ISSUES: • Population growth• Wealth distribution• Resources:
• Water • Energy• Minerals• Food
• Environment:• Atmosphere• Land• Sea
Sustainable Development – Population Growth
Overlays Will Day, 2006
Sustainable Development – Wealth Distribution
Sustainable Development – Water
Overlays Will Day, 2006
Sustainable Development - Energy
Overlays Will Day, 2006
Sustainable Development – Mineral Resources
“Providing today’s developed country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.”
R.B.Gordon, M. Bertram and T.E. GraedelYale University
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America23rd Jan 2006
Sustainable Development - Resources
Sustainable Development – The Environment
“Air pollution causes 2 million premature deaths a year”
World Health Organisation
“Air pollution causes nearly 170,000 deaths a year in China”
World Bank
Sustainable Development – The Environment
Sustainable Development – Connections
Overlays Will Day, 2006
Corporate Responses to Sustainable Development
Rejection and Non-responsiveness: “Very few companies today are actively opposed to sustainability concepts; most are simply ignorant of the issues and non-responsive” (WWF, 2003).
Compliance: The “vast majority” of companies – activities include reducing operating risks and impacts and protection of corporate reputation.
Efficiency: Actions include introducing policies to reduce costs. Despite the benefits to be gained, this approach to critical issues is often “managed outside the core business activities, and so missing strategic opportunities for value creation” (Draper, 2006).
Strategic Proactivity: At this stage, corporations seek competitive advantage by, among others, engagement with stakeholders in product development.
Sustaining corporations: “Vanguard” companies (WWF 2003) which are pioneering alternative interpretations of business values and success.
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations
MAJOR ISSUES:
• Design of ground based facilities:
• energy
• resource use
• sustainable design and operation
• Design of vehicles:
• emissions (need holistic analysis)
• cradle to cradle “C2C” design
• Carbon neutral trip – offsets:
• estimated cost of offset:
• £25 for sub-orbital (cf. London to Singapore return)
• £1,500 for launch to ISS (Soyuz technology, 3 PAX)
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations
FAILURE TO BUILD SUSTAINABILITY INTO ANY BUSINESS IS NOW A MAJOR BUSINESS RISK:
• Market perception risk
• Regulatory risk
• Social pressure risk (NGOs/public opinion)
BE CONSISTENT:
Failure to be consistent is a business risk
Space Tourism and Sustainability – Operations
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SPACE TOURISM ON CULTURE:
• environmental consciousness
• inspiration of the young
• the frontier culture
• sense of purpose
• optimism
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
This photo is credited with kick-starting the mass environmental movement
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
“Before I flew, I was already aware of how small and vulnerable our planet is; but only when I saw it from space, in all its ineffable beauty and fragility, did I realize that humankind's most urgent task is to cherish and preserve it for future generations.”
Sigmund Jaehn , 1st German Cosmonaut
“Nothing could have prepared me for the beauty of the view. It was breathtaking – watching the Earth from above without seeing borders, wars and divisions and realising how fragile the planet is. Every world leader should make the trip. They’d start to see things differently.”
Anousheh Ansari
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
"The way I want to inspire kids is to fly to space and let them know that they can too”
Burt Rutan
“Space, the final frontier”
Star Trek
“Where there is no vision the people perish”
Solomon, Proverbs 29 v8
“Perhaps the core message is that evolution and exploration are inseparable, that the curious intellect and the wondering spirit are the evolutionary process from inside. They are the hallmarks of humanity and the true propellants of spaceflight.”
Wyn Wachorst
“Man must explore and this is exploration at its greatest”
Dave Scott, Apollo 15
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Economics
A NEW INDUSTRY:
''What this country needs is a really good $500 billion technology - something to reignite popular enthusiasm and the economy'‘
R Samuelson, Washington Post
Space tourism revenue forecasts:
$100 billion/year by 2030
$1 trillion/year by 2060
Patrick Collins
Space tourism facts:
$1 billion committed investment in spaceports - 2006
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources
“3554 Amun, a mile wide lump of iron, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and other metals that has an orbit closely resembling that of the Earth’s……….3554 Amun contains thirty times as much metal as has ever been mined by human beings in the history of Earth. It’s value, at current prices and if mined slowly to keep commodity prices level, is estimated to be 20 trillion dollars.”
John S. Lewis
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources
Solar Power Satellites
Projected European power demand in 2020 is 535 GW
Energy dependence set to grow from 50% to 70% by 2030
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources
Lunar helium–3 as a fuel source for fusion power
Potential value of $140 million/100 kg
“But one assumption that I know will be justified is that the Moon, the near-Earth asteroids, and the rest of the solar system contain the resources that will take mankind to the next level of civilization and prosperity.” Mike Griffin, NASA Administrator
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
“20 ways the world could end” include:
Pandemic
Nuclear war
Gamma ray burst
Asteroid impact
Mega tsunami
Super volcanoes
Catastrophic climate change
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
“The real space race is between spaceflight and extinction”
J. Richard Gott
“If we were up there among the planets, if there were self-sufficient human communities on many worlds, our species would be insulated from catastrophe,”
Carl Sagan
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
Space Tourism is a growing industry
Sustainable Development reflects real problems
Sustainable Development is a business opportunity
Space Tourism links directly to Sustainable Development through:
• operations
• culture
• economics
• resources
• survival
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
Large parts of the Sustainable Development “industry” will oppose the idea of Space Tourism
If the Space Tourism industry sees Sustainable Development as just as a “compliance issue”, then it will face considerable opposition
Need to mitigate risks by:
Designing sustainability into operations and systems
Making the case that space is a vital part of sustainability
A rare opportunity to design Sustainable Development into a new industry from the start
I have learned to use the word impossible with great caution
Wernher von Braun
A Final Thought
Thank you for listening