Space Weather ImpactsSpace Weather Impactsand Some Schemes for and Some Schemes for Thinking About ThemThinking About Them
Delores KnippDelores Knipp
Department of Physics, USAF AcademyDepartment of Physics, USAF AcademySignificant Contributions from Space Weather ColleaguesSignificant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues
Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and
Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL)Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL)
Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005
Framework(s) for ImpactsFramework(s) for Impacts
HeliocentricHeliocentric Solar EmissionsSolar Emissions
User-centricUser-centric Who cares?Who cares?
GeocentricGeocentric Where on Earth?Where on Earth?
Signals and SystemsSignals and Systems
Space Weather vs Space Weather vs Space EnvironmentSpace Environment
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ElectromagneticRadiation
ARRIVAL: 8 minDURATION: 1-2 HOURS
EFFECTS
B Field/ Plasma
ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYSDURATION: DAYS
EFFECTS
High EnergyCharged Particles
ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURSDURATION: HOURS-DAYS
EFFECTS
Heliocentric--Solar EmissionsHeliocentric--Solar Emissions
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Enhanced Electromagnetic
RadiationARRIVAL: 8 min
DURATION: 1-2 HOURS
• HF RADIO BLACKOUT• SATCOM INTERFERENCE• RADAR INTERFERENCE• IMAGE INTERFERENCE
EFFECTS
Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds
ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYSDURATION: DAYS
EFFECTS
High EnergyCharged Particles
ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURSDURATION: HOURS-DAYS
EFFECTS
Disturbed Solar EmissionsDisturbed Solar Emissions
Flares
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Enhanced Electromagnetic
RadiationARRIVAL: 8 min
DURATION: 1-2 HOURS
EFFECTS
Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds
ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYSDURATION: DAYS
EFFECTS
High EnergyCharged Particles
ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURSDURATION: HOURS-DAYS
EFFECTS
Disturbed Solar EmissionsDisturbed Solar Emissions
• HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT• SATELLITE DISORIENTATION• SPACECRAFT DAMAGE• FALSE SENSOR READINGS• LAUNCH PAYLOAD FAILURE• RADIATION EXPOSURE
EFFECTS
Flares Mass Ejections
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EnhancedElectromagnetic
RadiationARRIVAL: 8 min
DURATION: 1-2 HOURS
EFFECTS
Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds
ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYSDURATION: DAYS
• HF RADIO BLACKOUT• SATELLITE ORBIT DECAY• RADAR FALSE TARGETS• SATCOM INTERFERENCE• POWER GRID DISTURBANCES
EFFECTS
High EnergyCharged Particles
ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURSDURATION: HOURS-DAYS
EFFECTS
Disturbed Solar EmissionsDisturbed Solar Emissions
Helicity/Mass Ejections
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ElectromagneticRadiation
ARRIVAL: 8 minDURATION: 1-2 HOURS
MONITORS
B Field/ Plasma
ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYSDURATION: DAYS
MONITORS
High EnergyCharged Particles
ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURSDURATION: HOURS-DAYS
MONITORS
Pause for Inquiry—How are these monitored?Pause for Inquiry—How are these monitored?
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Military Civil
SIGNALEFFECTS
User-centric—Who Cares?User-centric—Who Cares?
Scintillations
Navigation/Communications
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Ionospheric Currents
Ground Induced Currents
Electron Density Profiles—Comm and NavNeutral Atmosphere Variations—Satellite DragSpace Radiation—System and Human Exposure
Dual
National and International Level
Users
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Orbital GroundSub-orbital
SIGNALEFFECTS
Geocentric—Where on Earth?Geocentric—Where on Earth?
BEO
GEO
HEO
MEO
LEO
Thermospheric
Ionospheric
Meso/Stratospheric
Tropospheric
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Polar
Auroral
Sub Auroral
Equatorial
Worldwide
HighMid-LatitudeLow
SPACE WEATHER
SPACE ENVIRONMENT
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Beyond, Geostationary, Highly Eccentric, Medium, Low Beyond, Geostationary, Highly Eccentric, Medium, Low Earth Orbit Earth Orbit
BEO
ACE, SOHO
POLAR
GOES
POESGPS
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Orbital GroundSub-orbital
SIGNALEFFECTS
Geocentric—Where on Earth?Geocentric—Where on Earth?
BEO
GEO
HEO
MEO
LEO
Thermospheric
Ionospheric
Meso/Stratospheric
Tropospheric
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Polar
Auroral
Sub Auroral
Equatorial
Worldwide
HighMid-LatitudeLow
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SOHO’s Solar Array Degradation History Solar array degradation: Net loss in two week period 1.1%
BEO--Beyond Earth OrbitBEO--Beyond Earth Orbit
Energetic Particles-Solar Arrays (SOHO)Energetic Particles-Solar Arrays (SOHO)
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BEO--Beyond Earth OrbitBEO--Beyond Earth Orbit
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Energetic Particles-DEEP Space MissionsEnergetic Particles-DEEP Space Missions
Mars Odyssey - Spacecraft entered safe mode during the severe radiation storm. The MARIE instrument on the Mars Odyssey had a temperature red alarm leading to power-off on October 28. The instrument did not recover.
Stardust - Comet mission went into safe mode due to read errors; recovered.
SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of engine due to radiation levels in lunar transfer orbit. Reported a total of 3 shutdowns; decided not to thrust below altitude of 104 km.
Mars Explorer Rover - Spacecraft entered “Sun Idle” mode due to excessive star tracker events. Waited out event and recovered.
Microwave Anisotropy Probe - Spacecraft star tracker reset, and backup tracker autonomously turned on. Prime tracker recovered.
Mars Express - Spacecraft had to use gyroscopes for stabilization, due to loss of stars as reference points. The radiation storm blinded the orbiter's star trackers for 15 hours. The flares also delayed a scheduled Beagle 2 checkout procedure.
*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms
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Orbital GroundSub-orbital
SIGNALEFFECTS
Geocentric—Where on Earth?Geocentric—Where on Earth?
BEO
GEO
HEO
MEO
LEO
Thermospheric
Ionospheric
Meso/Stratospheric
Tropospheric
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Polar
Auroral
Sub Auroral
Equatorial
Worldwide
HighMid-LatitudeLow
Edge of Space
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Space and Radiation Belt Hazards• Radiation degradation and electronics upsets• Surface and internal charging / discharging• Human tissue damage
GEO, HEO, MEO
Impacts Categorized by Region
Magnetic Field Anomalies• Satellites in these orbits are usually immersed in
Earths northward directed field• During extreme magnetopause compression the
satellites could sense solar wind field of various orientations.
GEO, HEO, MEO
GEO, HEO and MEOGEO, HEO and MEO
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GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly EccentricGEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit Earth Orbit
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite ImpactsOct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts
Kodama, Data Relay Test Satellite (DRTS) - Went into safe mode during a severe (S4) solar radiation storm. The DRTS is a geostationary communications satellite that relays data among Low Earth Orbit (300-1,000 km altitude) spacecraft (including the International Space Station) and ground stations.
GOES-9, 10 and 12 - High bit error rates (9 and 10) and magnetic torquers disabled (12) due to solar activity.
Inmarsat (fleet of 9 geosynchronous satellites) - Controllers at their Satellite Control Centre had to quickly react to the solar activity to control Inmarsat’s fleet of geosynchronous satellites. Two experienced speed increases in momentum wheels requiring firing of thrusters, and one had outage when its CPU tripped out.
TV and Pay Radio Satellite Services: TV satellite controllers resorted to "manual attitude control" for 18-hour to 24-hour periods due to magnetopause crossing events that affected the attitude controller of two or more of their fleet. Pay radio satellite had several short-lived periods where they lost satellite lock.
*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms
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Put SAMPEX Data Here
CLUSTER Solar Array Panel Degradation ~1.4%
Provided by NASA Space Science Mission Operations
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Energetic Electrons in the Energetic Electrons in the Radiation BeltsRadiation Belts
Put SAMPEX Data Here
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GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly EccentricGEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit Earth Orbit
SYSTEMEFFECTS
High Speed High Speed Solar Wind Solar Wind and “Killer Electrons”and “Killer Electrons”
Courtesy Dan Baker
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BEO--Beyond Earth OrbitBEO--Beyond Earth Orbit
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Energetic Particles-Star Trackers (SOHO)Energetic Particles-Star Trackers (SOHO)
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C2 MOS Capacitor damaged by energetic particles. The capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)
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Orbital GroundSub-orbital
SIGNALEFFECTS
Geocentric—Where on Earth?Geocentric—Where on Earth?
BEO
GEO
HEO
MEO
LEO
Thermospheric
Ionospheric
Meso/Stratospheric
Tropospheric
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Polar
Auroral
Sub Auroral
Equatorial
Worldwide
HighMid-LatitudeLow
Edge of Space
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Space and Radiation Belt Hazards• Radiation degradation and electronics upsets• Surface and internal charging / discharging• Human tissue damage
Thermospheric Hazards• Satellite Drag• Atomic Oxygen Damage
Radiation Belts
LEO
Impacts Categorized by Region
Sun-Atmosphere
LEO--Low Earth OrbitLEO--Low Earth Orbit
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LEO--Low Earth OrbitLEO--Low Earth Orbit
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite ImpactsOct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts
DMSP F16 - SSIES sensor lost data twice, on October 28 and November 03; Microwave sounder lost oscillator; Switched to redundant system.
CHANDRA - Observations halted on several occasions during the October-November activity, including an extended outage from October 28 – November 01.
NOAA-17 spacecraft experienced a significant problem with the scan motors of the AMSU-A1. The instrument was powered down and no recovery efforts are planned.
Aqua, Landsat, Terra, TOMS, TRMM - NASA’s Earth Sciences Mission Office directed all instruments on these five spacecraft be turned off or safed due to the extreme solar storm prediction (October 29).
UARS/HALOE - Turn on of the instrument was delayed due to solar activity.
*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms
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LEO--Low Earth OrbitLEO--Low Earth Orbit
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Oct-Nov 2003 International Space Station ImpactsOct-Nov 2003 International Space Station Impacts
Astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) were directed to take shelter in the service module during the peak exposure intervals of the October 28-30 radiation storms. NASA also stowed the 56-foot-long Space Station Remote Manipulator System (robotic arm) during this period to prevent damage to this billion-dollar instrument.
*Information from NOAA
SEC Service Assessment of
Intense Space Weather Storms
370
375
380
385
390
395
400
30-S
ep-2
003
7-Oct-
2003
14-O
ct-20
03
21-O
ct-20
03
28-O
ct-20
03
4-Nov
-200
3
11-N
ov-2
003
18-N
ov-2
003
25-N
ov-2
003
2-Dec
-200
3
9-Dec
-200
3
Date/Time (UTC)
Alt
(km
)
ISS Alttitude Before Event
ISS Altitude During Event
ISS Altitude After Event
ISS altitude loss as a result of atmospheric drag
Courtesy of NASA
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Atomic Oxygen reactions with surfaces on theISS (Courtesy NASA)
Samples exposed on LDEF
Space Environment--Low Earth OrbitSpace Environment--Low Earth Orbit
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Damage to Hubble Solar Array from Meteoroid Impact
Space Environment--Low Earth OrbitSpace Environment--Low Earth Orbit
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Collisions with Space Debris and Meteoroids DuringCollisions with Space Debris and Meteoroids During
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Distribution of error events recorded in memory chips aboard a satellite. Distribution of error events recorded in memory chips aboard a satellite. These Single Event Upset (SEU) events are caused by high energy These Single Event Upset (SEU) events are caused by high energy cosmic rays interacting in the silicon - their distribution closely follows cosmic rays interacting in the silicon - their distribution closely follows that of the increased radiation activity in the SAA region.that of the increased radiation activity in the SAA region.
Space Environment--South Atlantic Anomaly
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Orbital GroundSub-orbital
SIGNALEFFECTS
Geocentric—Where on Earth?Geocentric—Where on Earth?
BEO
GEO
HEO
MEO
LEO
Thermospheric
Ionospheric
Meso/Stratospheric
Tropospheric
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Polar
Auroral
Sub Auroral
Equatorial
Worldwide
HighMid-LatitudeLow
Edge of Space
Atmo-spheric
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Radiation Belt Impacts• Energetic Particles in South Atlantic Anomaly • Chemistry Changes
Ionospheric Impacts• Comm/Nav link degradation and outage• Surveillance clutter/mischaracterization• HF propagation• Instabilities in Electro Density Profiles
Direct Solar Impacts X-ray and EUV changes
to Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles
Low and Mid Latitude
Ionosphere
Auroral And Polar Region
Auroral Region Impacts• Auroral Clutter• False Radar Detection• Communication Outages
Impacts Categorized by Region
Ionosphere Ionosphere
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MUF
LUF
MUF
LUF
Space Environment-- Ionosphere Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio CommunicationsRadio Communications
Absorption Refraction Scattering Transmission
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Useable Frequency Changes with Local TimeUseable Frequency Changes with Local Time
Undisturbed Ionosphere
ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATIONHF RADIO BLACKOUT
HF RADIOWAVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS
D
E
F
NORMAL CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONS
Space Environment-- Ionosphere Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio CommunicationsRadio Communications
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Space Weather Ionospheric HF CommunicationsSpace Weather Ionospheric HF Communications
Useable Frequency Closes on Dayside During Solar FlaresUseable Frequency Closes on Dayside During Solar Flares
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SATCOM
AURORAL IRREGULARITIES
GPS
PLASMA BUBBLES
GPS SATCOM
MAGNETICEQUATOR
DAY NIGHT
EQUATORIAL F LAYERANOMALIES
SBR
POLAR CAPPATCHES
Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM CommunicationsSATCOM Communications
Image from S Basu, AFRL
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High Latitude Ionospheric HF CommunicationsHigh Latitude Ionospheric HF Communications
SIGNALSEFFECTS
Oct-Nov 2003 Polar Cap Communication OutageOct-Nov 2003 Polar Cap Communication Outage
The Antarctic science groups and staff rely on MacRelay radio operations to provide essential HF radio communications between McMurdo Station and remote sites on the Antarctic. MacRelay is also responsible for communication links with aircraft and ships supporting the United States Antarctic Program.
MacRelay experienced over 130 hours of HF communication blackout during the October – November activity. McMurdo staff developed a contingency plan to use Iridium satellite phones as backup during HF outages. MacRelay was made aware that space weather was causing significant HF blackout conditions, allowing them to implement contingency plans.
*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms
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Mid and Low-Latitude-IonosphereMid and Low-Latitude-IonosphereSIGNALEFFECTS
Oct-Nov Total Electron Content VariationsOct-Nov Total Electron Content Variations
*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms
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Scintillations--Low-Latitude-IonosphereScintillations--Low-Latitude-IonosphereSIGNALEFFECTS
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Jicamarca 50 MHz Radar Data
Equatorial F-region -IonosphereEquatorial F-region -Ionosphere
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Orbital GroundSub-orbital
SIGNALEFFECTS
Geocentric—Where on Earth?Geocentric—Where on Earth?
BEO
GEO
HEO
MEO
LEO
Thermospheric
Ionospheric
Meso/Stratospheric
Tropospheric
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Polar
Auroral
Sub Auroral
Equatorial
Worldwide
HighMid-LatitudeLow
Atmo-spheric
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Strato, Tropo SpheresStrato, Tropo Spheres
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Faculae increase UV solar output
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Climate Modeling by J Haigh, Imperial CollegeClimate Modeling by J Haigh, Imperial College
• Analysis of NCEP zonal winds reveals that when the sun is more active the sub-tropical jets are weaker and positioned nearer the poles
• This signal is qualitatively similar to the results of GCM simulations with enhanced solar UV (and ozone) which increases static stability in the tropical regions
•In a simplified GCM, imposed stratospheric warming, and associated lowering of the tropopause, weakens the jets and storm-track eddies.
•Equatorial stratospheric warming displaces the jets polewards while uniform or polar warming displaces them markedly equatorwards.
•Baroclinic lifecycle runs show that baroclinic waves reinforce the zonal wind anomalies.
Solar UV Climate ConnectionSolar UV Climate Connection
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Strato, Tropo SpheresStrato, Tropo Spheres
SYSTEMEFFECTS
Flight Radiation Impacts During Oct-Nov 2003Flight Radiation Impacts During Oct-Nov 2003
*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms
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Orbital GroundSub-orbital
SIGNALEFFECTS
Geocentric—Where on Earth?Geocentric—Where on Earth?
BEO
GEO
HEO
MEO
LEO
Thermospheric
Ionospheric
Meso/Stratospheric
Tropospheric
SYSTEMEFFECTS
HighMid-LatitudeLow
Atmo-spheric
Polar
Auroral
Sub Auroral
Equatorial
Worldwide
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SATCOM
AURORAL IRREGULARITIES
GPS
PLASMA BUBBLES
GPS SATCOM
MAGNETICEQUATOR
DAY NIGHT
EQUATORIAL F LAYERANOMALIES
SBR
POLAR CAPPATCHES
Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM CommunicationsSATCOM Communications
Image from S Basu, AFRL
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Over a Dozen Transpolar Flights Re-routedOver a Dozen Transpolar Flights Re-routed
Polar Communications OutagesPolar Communications Outages
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Sun in Field of ViewSun in Field of View
Mid-latitude Mid-latitude Radio Sun EchoesRadio Sun Echoes
Other radio frequency interference reported by cell phone tower operators during solar storms (Flares)
Search and Rescue Frequencies report radiofrequency interference in side lobes
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Power Distribution ConcernsPower Distribution Concerns
Power companies in North America experienced some problems. Electrical companies took considerable effort to prepare and be aware.
Impacts and actions reported:
•Less use and switching between systems;•High levels of neutral current observed at stations throughout the country; •Tripped capacitor in the northwest (known to be GIC susceptible);•Transformer heating in the east – precautions were implemented; •‘Growling’ transformer that was backed down to help cool it down.
GIC impacts were more significant in
•Northern Europe where heating in a nuclear plant transformer was reported and a power system failure occurred on October 30 in Malmo, Sweden resulting in blackout conditions.
•South Africa where after-the-fact tests showed transformers exceeded maximum temperature and are being replaced
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SummarySummary
Courtesy of Lou Lanzerotti
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THE END!
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Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards• Comm/Nav link degradation and outage• HF propagation• Satellite Drag
Direct Solar Hazards• Radio, optical and X-
ray interference• Solar energetic particle
degradation and clutter
Imapcts Categorized by Region
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Radiation Belt Hazards• Radiation degradation and electronics upsets• Surface and internal charging / discharging• Human tissue damage
Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards• Comm/Nav link degradation and outage• Surveillance clutter• HF propagation• Satellite Drag
Direct Solar Hazards• Radio, optical and X-
ray interference• Solar energetic particle
degradation and clutter
Radiation Belts
Ionosphere
Auroral Region
Auroral Region Hazards• Auroral Clutter• False Radar Detection
Hazards Categorized by Region