Space&Weather&Predic.on&Next&Steps:&An&industry&and&military&perspec.ve

GeoOptics, Inc. Pasadena, CA June 14, 2016

Dr. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. CEO Vice Admiral, ret. USN

Slide Title National Space Weather Strategy*

“The Nation must continue to leverage existing public and private network of expertise and capabilities and pursue targeted enhancements to improve the ability to manage risks associated with space weather.”

“The Strategy and Action Plan build on recent efforts to reduce risks associated with natural hazards and reduce risks associated with natural hazards and improve resilience of essential facilities and systems, aiming to foster a collaborative environment in which government, industry, and the American people can better understand and prepare for the effects of space weather.” .

Introduction

*https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf

Industry & Military Perspective

National Space Weather Strategy*

1.  Establish+Benchmarks+for+Space+Weather+Events+

2.  Enhance+Response+and+Recovery+Capabili>es+

3.  Improve+Protec>on+and+Mi>ga>on+Efforts+Public+Good+&+Government+Control+

4.  Improve+Assessment,+Modeling,+and+Predic>on+of+Impacts+on+Cri>cal+Infrastructure+

5.  Improve+Space+Weather+Services+through+Advancing+Understanding+and+Forecas>ng+

6.  Increase+Interna>onal+Coopera>on+

Strategic Goals

*https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf

Industry & Military Perspective

American Commercial Space Weather Association

•  Algorithm development •  Automatic event detections (flares, solar

energetic particles, geoeffective CMEs) •  Calibration/validation •  Data assimilation • GPS modeling and services •  HF propagation •  Numerical modeling and simulation

•  Sun, interplanetary medium •  magnetosphere, ionosphere •  thermosphere, lower atmosphere

• Operational implementations / Research to Operations (R2O)

•  Risk and threat analyses for infrastructure and space resources

•  Satellite data analysis & data product

development •  Sensor hardware & modeling •  Software tools

•  Application development (web-based and smart phone)

•  Data hosting / data product delivery •  Data / model visualization

•  Space Situational Awareness (SSA) •  Spacecraft anomaly prediction and

assessment •  Space weather data product and

service distribution •  Space weather now-casting/forecasting

Capabilities*

*http://www.acswa.us/capabilities.html

Industry & Military Perspective

Dilemma

?

Federal+Budget+

National needs

To Meet

Industry & Military Perspective

Partnership

Federal+Budget+

National needs

Gov’t Gov’t Space Weax

Academia Space Weax

Commercial Space Weax

Academia

Commercial

To Meet

Filled by:

Coordinated National Public Private Effort

Essential

Industry & Military Perspective

U.S. Government Space Policy*

•  Purchase+commercial+space+services+to+the+maximum+extent++

•  Modify+commercial+space+services+when+cost+effec>ve+&+>mely+

•  Explore+nontradi>onal+arrangements+for+acquiring+commercial+space+services+

•  Develop&USG&space&systems&only&when&no&US&commercial&service&available&•  Refrain&from&ac.vi.es&that&compete&with&US&commercial&space&ac.vi.es&

•  Pursue&opportuni.es&for&transferring&rou.ne&space&func.ons&to&the&commercial&space&sector&

•  Cul>vate+entrepreneurship+in+the+commercial+space+sector+through+incen>ves++

•  Ensure+USG+space+technology+available+for+commercial+use+

To promote a robust domestic commercial space industry, agencies shall:

*http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf

Industry & Military Perspective

Space Weather Industry

Products and Services

Upstream

Mid-Stream

Downstream

•  Research •  Observations •  Instrumentation •  Data

•  Data Processing •  Computation •  Algorithms •  Models

•  Forecasts •  Warnings •  Services •  Emergency Mgt

Value Chain

www.acswa.us

Industry & Military Perspective

Military Perspective •  Solar+Storms+will+affect+military+opera>ons+and+readiness+

–  White+House+emergency+ac>on+will+be+ini>ated+based+on+current+plans+

–  Assets+may+have+to+be+moved+to+cover+areas+without+power+or+communica>on+

–  Reac>ons+are+>me+sensi>ve++

–  Military+forces+rou>nely+train+for+defense+against+nuclear+warfare+scenarios+

•  Nuclear+ElectroTmagne>c+Pulse+(EMP)+or+High+al>tude+EMP+(HEMP)+–  Caused+by+nuclear+bomb+detona>on+

–  Effects+vary+based+of+al>tude+and+bomb+size+

–  Effects+(E3)+similar+to+a+geomagne>c+storm+caused+by+a+solar+flare+

–  Major+effects+include+communica>ons+disrup>ons+

–  Detona>on+in+outer+space+could+affect+long+term+viability+of+mul>ple+satellites+

•  2013,+House+considered+"Secure+HighTvoltage+Infrastructure+for+Electricity+from+Lethal+Damage+Act"+++(surge+protec>on+~300+large+transformers.)+