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Welfare distributionsWelfare distributionsinin spacespace
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Spatial Patterns ofSpatial Patterns of PovertyPoverty
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omp
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omp Spatial Patterns of Spatial Patterns of PovertyPoverty
in Vietnam and Laosin Vietnam and Laos
Nat
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Chiang Mai; October 31 November 2 2007
Michael Epprecht
Swis
s NSw
iss N Chiang Mai; October 31 - November 2, 2007
‘Measuring’ Poverty
Expenditure approachExpenditure approachtotal household per capita consumption, including the value of home productionincluding the value of home production
Poverty RatePoverty Rate(share of population below a specific ‘poverty line’)poverty line )
Spatial aspects of human welfare
Poverty map of Vi tVietnam:
» Based on 1998 VLSS» Sample of 6000
Poverty rate(% of populationbelow the
t li )» Sample of 6000 households
poverty line)
Representative at regional level onlyregional level only
Small Area Estimation
Combine information from two data sources to generate expenditure data for the whole population:generate expenditure data for the whole population:Sample survey data, and Census data
» Use household survey data to predict household per capita expenditure using household characteristics
» Apply coefficients to same household characteristics in census
sample survey data set census data set» Aggregate from household to “small area” such as district
or commune
sample survey data set- v1- v2
β1β2
census data set- v’1- v’2
β1β2
^... y
- vnβn
...
- v’nβn
y
Model applied to Vietnam
Household size and composition
Housing» House typep
» Household size» Proportion of elderly » Proportion of children
» House type» Living area» Type of roof
f fl» Proportion of children» Proportion of females
Education» Education of head of household
» Type of floor» Type of water source» Type of toilet
» Education of head of household» Education of spouse
Characteristics of head of h h ld
» Electricity
Ownership of assetsRadiohousehold
» Ethnicity» Occupation
» Radio» Television
Location» Urban/Rural» Elevation and coordinates
Poverty in Vietnam d Land Laos
Where are the poor?
PERCENTAGE of population below ABSOLUTE number of people below poverty Population densityp ppoverty line(poverty incidence)
p p p yline(“poverty density”)
Poverty rates & poverty density
Although gupland areas have higher poverty ratepoverty rate, most of the poor live in deltas
d l tand along coastPoverty assistance ss s ceshould not be limited to poorest areaspoorest areas
Poverty in Laos
The geography of poverty and inequality
Poverty rates highest in“remote rural highlands”g
Poverty rates
ethnicethnicmajorities minorities
Poverty rates
Spatial variation i l ti hiin relationships:
Influence ofannual rainfall
on district-level poverty incidence.
Conclusions - Methodology
Poverty mapping methody pp g» Statistical method produces
spatially highly disaggregated estimates of p y g y gg gpoverty that are generally considered to be more g yreliable and consistent than those from the administrative reporting system
Conclusions - Methodology
Poverty mapping method (cont.)y pp g ( )» But, the method:
does not produce reliable information below pthe commune/ village level
combination with local participatory approachesp p y pp
is very data intensive, i.e. cannot easily be updated frequentlyupdated frequently
limitations of the method in the face of mass migration (maps quickly outdated?)g o ( ps qu c y ou d ed?)
AcknowledgementsVietnam:
Minot, N.; Baulch, B. and Epprecht, M. (2006)Minot, N.; Baulch, B. and Epprecht, M. (2006) Poverty and inequality in Vietnam — Spatial Patterns and geographic determinants. IFPRI research report #148 International Food Policyresearch report #148, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC.http://www.ifpri.org/PUBS/abstract/rr148.asp p fp g p
Laos:DRAFT RESULTS of a project onDRAFT RESULTS of a project on‘Poverty mapping in Lao PDR’
please do not quote or reproduceplease do not quote or reproduce