Spatial Plan Concept

Development of a Spatial Planning Concept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

STUDY STATUS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Republic of Kenya

Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development

February 2011

Consulting Engineering Services (India) Pvt. Ltd. 57, Nehru Place, 5th Floor, New Delhi -110 019, India

In association with

Runji & Partners, Consulting Engineers and Planners Ltd.

3, Kindaruma Road, P.O Box 68053, Nairobi, Kenya

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page 1

Document: 2010063/UPD February, 2011

Executive Summary R0

Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, Government of Kenya

Development of a Spatial Planning Conept

for

Nairobi Metropolitan Region

Study Status Executive Summary

1. The study has been initiated by the Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development

(MoNMD), GoK and is being carried out by M/S Consulting Engineering Services (India)

Private Limited, New Delhi, in association with M/S Runji & Partners, Consulting

Engineers, Nairobi

2. The study was started w.e.f 20 September 2010

3. As of date the following reports have been submitted

i. Inception Report (in October, 2010)

ii. Status Report I (Base Map) (in December 2010)

iii. Status Report- II (Sectoral Characteristics, Transport Surveys, Stakeholders

Meetings) (in December 2010)

iv. Working Paper on NMR-2030: Population Forecast & Distribution, Employment,

Occupation Structure and Urban Land Use Structure (in February 2011)

4. The Inception Report

presents a brief overview of some of the major policies of GoK that impact planning

and development of Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR)

lists the objectives of the study, the overall objective being to develop a sustainable

land use system for NMR

details the study methodology in 21 modules and

presents the activity schedule and deliverables

5. The Status Report I

The Status Report I describes the methodology of preparation of the Base Map of NMR

on GIS platform

The Survey of Kenya toposheets had been taken as a primary source of Base Map

development which had been geo-referenced, vectorised and mapped for important

layers in groups like Administrative Boundaries, Settlements/Built-up, Natural green

Areas, Transport Network, Water Bodies, and indicative contours at 100m interval. The

most important layer in terms of planning for development of a Metropolitan Region

being the existing condition of built-up and settlements of the area, the same has been




MAP.1: BASE MAP FOR NMR




updated from the latest satellite image using the GEO-Eye data of 2010. Further

developments of the road corridors like the bypasses which have come up in recent few

months or under construction have been updated by traversing using the GPS. A

universal projection system, the UTM with WGS-84 datum has been assigned for the

geo-referenced toposheets and Satellite Images so as to derive the layers and maps

which could be used for further studies and directly the GPS and other surveyed data

can be overlaid.

Accuracy and integrity of base map is the most important criteria for any good spatial

study. SDP-NMR being the one with a large areal extent of about 32,000 sq km, the

accuracy of base map becomes further more important. The features and their

accuracies in the source maps and satellite images has been cross checked in the field

using one of the most reliable hand held GPS, the Garmin GPS 76CSx having SWIR

antenna giving a accuracy in the range of + 4m. The maps have been checked by GPS

traversing and Ground Control Points with respect to the land features likes roads and

major structures. It has been found that most of the land features were in the most

desirable accuracy range of +10-15m for a study like SDP-NMR. The requirement for

the development of concept plan for SDP-NMR is a broad scaled map in the range of

1:500,000 to 1:100,000 scales. However the accuracy achieved in this Base Map is

better than that required for 1: 50,000 scale. Hence the layers derived for the base map

in GIS format could be put to use for any further spatial study at a level of 1: 50,000

scale.

Though the Base Map is developed in GIS format which is scale independent, i.e., could

be printed and viewed at any scale, the hard copies have been printed for the SDP-NMR

Status – I Report at the following scales - Base Map for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

(1:400,000), County Nairobi (1:100,000), County Kajiado (1:450,000), County Machakos

(1:300,000) and County Kiambu (1: 200,000).

The methodology of preparation of Base Map and the potentials of its use and

application was presented by the GIS experts of the Study Team, to the members of the

Progress Review Committee and officers of the MoNMD.

6. The Status Report II

The Status Report II (SR-II) is a detailed report presenting the status and salient features

of the NMR in all its dimensions – physical, demographic, economic, social, transport,

physical, land use, infrastructure, environment, landscape, urban design and institutional

framework.

The SR – II:

presents a detailed overview of the major policies of the GoK that impact the spatial

development of NMR

presents an analysis of the demographic characteristics of NMR

discusses the economic profile




presents the landuse structure of the major urban centres in the region

presents a detailed analysis of the traffic and travel characteristics of the people and

the features of the transport system

details the social profile of the people

discusses the environmental status

briefly reviews the physical infrastructure system services and

presents an overview of a large number of legal statues that govern physical

development

A SWOT analysis of the NMR has also been presented highlighting the opportunities,

potentials and constraints.

The report lists the extensive data/reports/maps/ etc that have been collected from

secondary sources.

The report stresses on the need for a National Urbanisation Policy.

As part of the study extensive meetings with a large number of stakeholders of different

descriptions have been carried out to elicit the stakeholders perceptions of and

suggestions for the spatial development plan.

The SR-II has enabled a clear understanding of the ongoing development process, the

critical issues that need to be addressed, and the opportunities that need to be exploited.

In the context of the revised political administrative system of counties and with four (4)

counties in the NMR, an effective institutional framework for integrated and coordinated

development of the NMR emerges as a critical need.

7. Working Paper

A Working Paper on Population forecast and Distribution, Employment, Occupation

Structure and Urban Land use structure has been submitted (February 2011). The policy

assumptions and the forecasts form the base for detailing the Spatial Development Plan.

The population of NMR is growing

rapidly. The forecast of population

by 2030, under three (3)

scenarios of Business As usual,

Vision Based and unabated

Development – has been made.

The range is 13.2 million to 20.1

million.

FIG.1: POPULATION PROJECTION BY THREE METHODS FOR NMR

IN 2020 AND 2030




The forecast, of 15.1 million, under Vision

Based scenario has been selected for further

detailing.

FIG.2: POPULATION FOR NMR IN 2009 AND 2030

Presently there is an inequitable distribution of

people by the component sub-regions (4

counties). Nairobi city accounts for almost half of

the region population (2009) and Northern Metro

Region (Kiambu County) for half of the balance

population. Some of the urban centres are

experiencing runaway growth rates. There is a

need for a more balanced growth and

distribution.

FIG. 3: PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION WITHIN

NMR AND ONMR

It is proposed to contain the population size of Nairobi City to be 5.21 million (2030). It is

proposed to decelerate the growth rate of urban centres in Northern Metro Region and

accelerate the growth rate of

urban centres in Eastern Metro

Region. Even with this policy

distribution, Northern Metro will

account for a large share of the

population (4.99 million). However

the other two (2) sub-regions will

have large size of 2.97 million in

Eastern and 1.96 million in

Southern Metro Regions.

FIG. 4: PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE IN NAIROBI

In the revised urbanisation pattern, apart from Nairobi city, there will be 3 more near

metropolitan cities (Ruiru, Kikuyu and Kangundo-Tala).

Six (6) New Towns, 2 in each of the three sub-regions (other than Nairobi), of about

100,000 population each, have been proposed.

The overall forecast of population in NMR, by component spatial units is presented in

Table 1.




Table 1: NMR – 2030: Population Forecast

Sr. No. Spatial Units 2009 2030

1 NMR 6,658,000 15,135,881

2 Core Nairobi 3,138,369 5,212,500

3 Total Urban within NMR 4,887,664 12,999,992

4 ONMR 3,519,631 9,923,381

a Total Urban within NMR (without Nairobi) 1,749,295 7,787,492

b Rural 1,770,336 2,135,889

5a Northern Metro 1,786,879 4,990,641

Urban 976,295 4,180,712

Rural 810,584 809,929

5b Eastern Metro 1,045,440 2,969,576

Urban 507,978 2,376,526

Rural 537,462 593,050

5c Southern Metro 687,312 1,963,164

Urban 265,022 1,230,255

Rural 422,290 732,910

5a Northern Metro

i. Ruiru 238,858 973,911

ii. Thika 139,853 570,232

iii. Limuru 104,282 425,196

iv. Kiambu 88,869 362,351

v. Juja 40,446 164,913

vi. Kikuyu 234,053 954,320

vii. Karuri 129,934 529,788

Sum (i-vii) 976,295 3,980,712

2 New Towns (with 100,000 in each) 200,000

Total Urban 976,295 4,180,712

5b Eastern Metro

i. Machakos 150,041 642,879

ii. Mavoko 139,380 597,199

iii. Kangundo/Tala 218,557 936,448

Sum (i-iii) 507,978 2,176,526


Total Urban 507,978 2,376,526

5c Southern Metro

i. Ngong 107,188 412,641




Sr. No. Spatial Units 2009 2030

ii. Kitengela 58,167 223,925

iii. Ongata Rongai 40,178 154,673

iv. Kiserian 18,096 69,664

v. Namanga 9,066 34,901

vi. Isinya 8,670 33,377

vii. Bissil 5,376 20,696

viii. Kajiado 18,281 70,376

Sum (k-r) 265,022 1,020,255


Magadi 10,000

Total Urban 265,022 1,230,255

Source: Projection by the Consultant

With the expectation of growth of Kenya’s GDP at 10% as envisaged in Kenya Vision

2030, NMR GDP would need to grow at about 15%. The per capita income would more

than double. The economy is expected to become more formal. While agriculture will be

the main occupation in the rural areas, manufacturing, transportation, construction and

service sectors would be the major sectors contributing to the urban, and in general to

the overall, economy of the region.

The large increase in employment size presents an opportunity to promote balanced

spatial and inclusive development of NMR. However it calls for comprehensive,

coordinated and continuous planning and development process.

NMR is a highly urbanised region and will continue to be more urbanised in the decades

to come. The urban share will be about 87%. The 18 urban centres (excluding Nairobi

city) will grow at high rates and will increase their population size manifold. Care needs

to be exercised in consuming land for urban use. Optimal densities, based on city size,

have been recommended. About 173 sq. km of land would be under urban developed

land which is about 5.4% of NMR area.

The occupational structure of each of the urban centres have been proposed based on

their functional character.

The land use structure of each of the urban centre has been proposed, again with

reference to their envisaged function.

It is important that each of the urban local authority is encouraged and facilitated to

prepare comprehensive Master Plans, Zoning plans and Local Area Plans for their town

to promote and guide integrated and balanced spatial, economic, social and

infrastructure development to attain the status of world class region.

8. The Executive Summary of each of the above reports are enclosed for more detailed

reference.




Occupational Structure and Land Use Distribution, 2030 1. Nairobi

2. Ruiru

3. Thika

4. Limuru




5. Kiambu

6. Juja

7. Kikuyu

8. Karuri

Occupational Structure in 2030

Agril.

23%

Manf.

14%Trans p.

7%C ons t.

5%

S erv.

51%




9. Machakos

10. Movoko

11. Kangundo/Tala

12. Ngong




13. Kitengela

14. Ongata Rongai

15. Kiserian

16. Namanga


Agril.

10%

Manf.

10%

Trans p.

6%

C ons t.

6%

S erv.

68%


Agril.

11%

Manf.

3%

Trans p.

7%

C ons t.

6%

S erv.

73%




17. Isinya

18. Bissil

19. Kajiado

20. Aerotropolis (near Thika)


Agril.

12%Manf.

4%

Trans p.

6%

C ons t.

6%

S erv.

72%




21. Ruaka New Town

22. New Town (near Aeroptroplis)

23. New Town (Along Eastern by-pass)

Land Use Distribution, 2030




24. Ambosilli New Town

25. Kajiado Transport Hub

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Inception Report

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page i

Document: 2010063/UPD/ Inception Report October, 2010


Study on

Concept Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

Inception Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. The Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, GoK, has initiated the study on

preparation of a Concept Spatial Development Plan (SDP) for the Nairobi

Metropolitan Region (NMR). The study has been assigned to M/S Consulting

Engineering Services (I) Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi in association with M/S Runji and

Partners, Nairobi. The study has been initiated w.e.f. from 20th September 2010.

2. NMR, the study area, extends over 32,000 sqkm and includes the jurisdiction of the

15 local authorities comprising City Council of Nairobi, Municipal Councils of Kiambu,

Limuru, Machakos, Mavoko, Ruiru and Thika, Town Council of Kajiado, Karuri,

Kikuyu and Tala / Kangundo and County Councils of Kiambu, Masaku, Olkejuado

and Thika.

According to the new administrative units of governance, NMR comprises 4 counties

of Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado. As of 2009, NMR contained a population

size of 6.71 million, of which Nairobi city accounted for 3.14 million.

3. A brief reconnaissance survey of the region has been made to appreciate the

physical and other characteristics of the region. The terrain slopes from north-west to

south-southeast. The region has a number of large and dense forests, national parks

and open areas. A number of rivers drain the region and are a source of water

supply. Nairobi is the main city with concentration of people and activities. Some of

the regional towns, though presently grown as dormitory towns, have potential for

concerted development to absorb more population and activities and thrive as

important, functional, regional centers. The traffic within, to and from Nairobi is

intense leading to congestion and delays. Traffic within the regional towns is low and

is primarily by walk and IPT modes. Traffic between Nairobi and the regional towns is

intense. Direct interactions amongst regional town are constrained due to poor

connectivity.

4. The proposed study methodology is comprehensive. It is structured into interlinked

modules. They are:

Module 1: Base Map

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page ii

Document: 2010063/UPD/ Inception Report October, 2010


Module 2: World Class City

Module 3: Demography and Settlement Pattern

Module 4: Economic Structure and Prospects

Module 5: Strength Weakness Opportunity and Threats (SWOT) Analysis

Module 6: Social Dimension

Module 7: Environment Dimension

Module 8: Social Infrastructure

Module 9: Housing and Slums in NMR

Module 10: Tourism

Module 11: Transport

Module 12: Land Use and Development Study

Module 13: Physical Infrastructure

Module 14: New Towns – Planning and Development

Module 15: Structure Plans for Urban Areas

Module 16: Urban Design

Module 17: Regional Landscpe

Module 18: Governance, Institutions and Legal Support in NMR

Module 19: Resource Mobilisation

Module 20: Concept Spatial Development Plan

Module 21: Technology Transfer Mechanism

The methodology also includes extensive meetings, discussions and interactions with

the stakeholders.

5. The study period is 16 weeks, w.e.f. the date of initiation of the study. An Activity

Schedule of the study has been prepared. The deliverables include: Inception

Report, Stage I Report, Stage II Report, Draft Final Report and Final Report.

6. This Inception report is submitted as the first of the deliverables. The report

comprises 7 chapters detailing various aspects of study methodology.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Status Report I (Base Map)


Document: 2010063/UPD/ Status Report 1 October, 2010


Study on


Status Report 1 (Base Map)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Base Map is a fundamental requirement for planning any developmental activity and

further designing and detailing as it depicts fundamental information about the Earth's

surface such as landforms and drainage and existing infrastructure and other

developmental changes brought about by human activities.

The preparation of Spatial Development Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region has been

taken up as an initiative to meet with the vision under Nairobi Metro Vision 2030. Building

a Spatial Plan required a Base Map derived from accurate sources like topographic

sheets from Survey of Kenya and further updated with respect to the latest ground

realities. The latest satellite images of 2010 have been used for this purpose.

The Survey of Kenya toposheets, taken as a primary source for Base Map development,

have been geo-referenced, vectorised and mapped for important layers in groups like

Administrative Boundaries, Settlements/Built-up, Natural green Areas, Transport

Network, Water Bodies, and indicative contours at 100m interval. The most important

layer in terms of planning for development of a metropolitan region being the existing

situation of built-up and settlements in the area, the same has been updated from the

latest satellite image using the GEO-Eye data of 2010. Further, developments of the

road corridors like the bypasses which have come up in last few months or are under

construction have been updated by traversing using the GPS. A universal projection

system, the UTM with WGS-84 datum has been assigned for the geo-referenced

toposheets and satellite images so as to derive the layers and maps which could be

used for further studies and also the GPS and other surveyed data could be overlaid

directly.

Accuracy and integrity of Base Map is an essential criterion for any good spatial study.

SDP-NMR being the one with a large areal extent of about 32,000 sq km, the accuracy

of Base Map becomes further more important. The features and their accuracies in the

source maps and satellite images has been cross checked in the field using one of the

most reliable hand held GPS, the Garmin GPS 76CSx having SWIR antenna giving a

accuracy in the range of + 4m. The maps have been checked by GPS traversing and

Ground Control Points with respect to the land features such as roads and major

structures. It has been found that most of the land features are in the most desirable

accuracy range of +10-15m for a study like SDP-NMR. The requirement for the

development of concept plan for SDP-NMR is a broad scaled map in the range of 1:

500,000 to 1: 100,000 scales. However the accuracy achieved in this Base Map is better


Document: 2010063/UPD/ Status Report 1 October, 2010


than that required for a 1: 50,000 scale map. Hence the layers derived for the Base Map

in GIS format could be put to use for any further spatial study at a level of 1: 50,000

scale.

Though the Base Map is developed in GIS format which is scale independent, i.e., could

be printed and viewed at any scale, the hard copies have been printed for the SDP-NMR

Status –I report at the following scales - Base Map for Nairobi Metropolitan

Region(1:400,000), County Nairobi (1:100,000), County Kajiado(1:450,000), County

Machakos (1:300,000 ) and County Kiambu (1: 200,000 ). The Base Map layers derived

will be further used for development of Land use maps and other thematic maps for the

current study.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Status Report- II (Sectoral

Characteristics, Transport

Surveys, Stakeholders

Meetings)


Document: 2010063/UPD/ Status Report 2 December, 2010


Study on

Development of Spatial Planning Concept for Nairobi Metropolitan Region

Status Report 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. The Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development, GoK, has initiated the study on

preparation of a Concept Spatial Development Plan (SDP) for the Nairobi

Metropolitan Region (NMR). The study has been assigned to M/S Consulting

Engineering Services (I) Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi in association with M/S Runji and

Partners, Nairobi. The study has been initiated w.e.f. from 20th September 2010.

2. As part of the study two deliverables i.e Inception Report and Status 1 Report

detailing the basemap of NMR on GIS platform and 2 progress reports have already

been submitted.

3. The Status 2 Report is submitted as the third deliverable. The ‘Status Report – 2’

forms the base for formulating policies, selecting strategies and listing programmes

for the preparation of the Concept Spatial Development Plan for the NMR. It

comprises 21 chapters and presents all the dimensions of the region such as

physical planning, roads, transportation, regional economics, physical infrastructure

(water, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management, power and

telecommunication), social profile, environment, landscape, urban design, and visual

profile.

4. The study area extends over 32,000 sq km and comprises the jurisdiction of Nairobi

City Council and 14 other local authorities. Under the new geo-political system of the

country, the study area includes jurisdiction of 4 counties comprising Nairobi,

Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado. The study area contained a population size of 6.65

million in 2009 (Ch. 1.0).

5. The spatial structure of NMR (Ch. 2.0) is influenced by various factors such as

strategic location, physical features, urban-rural interface, structure of land tenure,

transport structure, settlement structure, histroical prespective and land use

structure.

The approach emphasizes the interrelation and integration of different aspects and

actions to create a good NMR conceptual spatial plan, based on three key concepts:

NMR space as a field of activity, NMR space is structured for sustainable co-

existence and the spatial quality is best suitable for different activities within NMR

space.

There is no national land use framework in Kenya although plans are under way to




develop a framework by the Director of Physical Planning and the stakeholders. One

major weakness of the regional plans so far prepared in the country, is the failure to

incorporate road network as basis of development framework The biggest challenge

for planning at the local level is the lack of capacity for the local authorities to cope

with the development challenges.

6. The preparation of the conceptual Spatial Plan for NMR is a muti-disciplinary

excercise. The study is based mainly on secondary information from various

sources. The different types of sectoral data (Ch. 3.0) such as physical planning,

demography, roads, transportation, regional economics, physical infrastructure

(water, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management, power and

telecommunication), social profile, environment, landscape, urban design have been

collected and collated.

The secondary data collection is also supported by inputs and interactions with the

Client and other stakeholders. Besides that, secondary data collection is

supplemented by primary data collection through: transport survey, stakeholders’

survey, updating base map by ground verification through GPS data

7. An overview of the relevant policies listed below (Ch. 4.0) made to appreciate their

impact on the preparation of conceptual plan for NMR within the framework of New

Constitution of Kenya

Kenya Vision 2030

Nairobi Metro, 2030: A World Class Metropolis

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

Nairobi Metropolitan Growth Strategy

Land Policy in Kenya: A National Land Use Policy

Housing Policy

National Transport Policy

Monetary Policy

Fiscal policy

Medium Term Plan (MTP) for 2008-12

Energy Regulatory Commission

Kenya Integrated Assessment of the Energy Policy

Feed in Tariff Policy on Wind, Biomass and Small Hydro Resource Generated

Electricity

8. The physiography of NMR (Ch. 5.0) which extends from the eastern edge of the

Rift Valley where the elevation is 2,300m above sea level and gradually slopes

down towards the east and the south to an altitude of 1,400m above mean sea

level. The terrain of the region gradually changes from low-lying plains in the

south to the Kenyan highlands in the north. The biggest feature of Kenya, the

Great Rift Valley forms the western edge of NMR.

Kenya can be divided into six major natural geographical regions. NMR is part of

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page iii



the foreland plateau and highlands-comprising Eastern and Western. The rocks

in the Nairobi area mainly comprise a succession of lavas and Pyroclastics of the

Cainozoic age and overlying the foundation of folded Precambrian schist’s and

gneisses of the Mozambique belt.

Drainage of NMR is primarily into the basin of the Athi River and its tributaries.

NMR has numerous areas which need to be conserved. These include national

parks, forest areas, and city parks.

9. The total population of the NMR was 2.2 million in 1979 which increased to 6.7

million in 1989 registering a growth ratio of 3.78%. The population of core Nairobi is

3.1 million (2000) which accounts for 64% of the total population of the NMR. There

is a tendency of concentration of the population in the NMR especially around

Nairobi. The female population is more than male population in NMR, however, in

Nairobi there are more males than females. The density has changed from 68

persons per sq. km in 1979 to 207 persons per sq. km. in 2009. Moreover, the

density in Nairobi (4509.15 persons per sq. Km) has increased at a rapid pace

resulting in congestion (Ch 6.0).

The youthful structure of the population is a great advantage for the socio-economic

development. It also causes high dependency ratios and is responsible for high

unemployment rates and demands for education, housing, health, transport and

other social amenities. The population pyramid of Nairobi does not reflect a normal

structure. Between the age group of 6 and 19 years, both sexes decline in numbers

but pick up rapidly between the age group of 20 and 29 years. From then on the

pyramid exhibits a normal trend, with a gradual decrease of numbers with age but

more rapidly for females than males.

Illiteracy rates in Nairobi for the 15 – 54 years age group are 7.8 per cent for women

and 5.8 per cent for men. Illiteracy levels are 21 per cent for women and 12 per cent

for males.

The rate of increase in urban population is high with 73% of the population of

NMR in urban areas. The pattern of urbanization in the country is highly skewed

with the Nairobi area dominating and large regions of the country left with low

urbanization.

10. Kenya has pursued a mixed economy since 1963 (Ch. 7.0). However, there has

been a shift in emphasis from public investment to private sector led growth.

Market based reforms have been introduced since 1993 and more incentives for

both local and foreign private investment provided.

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page iv



According to the Kenya Economic Update Kenya’s economy is recovering

steadily and is forecast to grow at 4.0 % in 2010. For 2011, the World Bank

forecasts growth at 5.3 %. Driven by strong public investments and improved

business confidence the economic indicators point to a full recovery and possibly

take off in the medium term. Under the high case scenario the economy could

achieve a growth of 6.0 % in 2011 and maintain that level in 2012.

Vision 2030 envisages a sustained average growth of 10 per cent per annum

over the next two decades implying that the size of the economy should double

every 7 years. NMR plays an important role in Kenya’s economy. NMR economy will

have to be stimulated to grow by 15% a year on an average by 2030 in order to

realize this 10 per cent per annum national growth rate. The per capita income of

NMR has to also grow by about 10% a year on an average in order to attain this

growth rate of 15%.

An analysis of sources of recent growth reveals that growth has largely been

driven by private consumption and investment. To sustain such a growth within a

stable macro-economic environment, aggregate expenditure should not outpace

the production capacity of the economy. In this regard, it will be important to

focus on removing supply-side constraints while maintaining a prudent monetary

and fiscal policy. Improvements in productivity and competitiveness are critical in

supporting this.

In 2009 agriculture, including forestry and fishing, accounted for about 10 percent

of GRDP of NMR, as well as for 20 percent of wage employment and 50 percent

of revenue from exports. The manufacturing sector growth rose by 10 per cent.

The sector is important in terms of its contribution to total output, export earnings

and in its employment creation capability. NMR’s services sector, contributed

about 68 percent to GDP in 2009.

Nairobi had employment accounting for 35 per cent of the total wage employment in

Kenya in 2009. Nairobi City had urban informal sector employment which accounts

for 65 percent. This corresponds to 25 percent of the total informal sector

employment in Kenya in 2009. Nairobi is dominant in employment generation in

Kenya for both the informal and the formal sectors. NMR faces five key employment

challenges, namely: high youth unemployment; rapidly growing labour force; under-

employment; the problem of the working poor; and gender inequality in employment.

The population living below the poverty line is estimated to have increased to 1.6

million in 2009.The incidence of poverty is higher in rural areas at 49 per cent

compared with 34 per cent in urban areas.

The micro and small enterprises (MSEs) sector contributes about 19 per cent of

GRDP of Nairobi. Further, the sector accounts for 90per cent of all the new jobs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forestry

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fishing

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page v



created and it employs 80 per cent of the total number of employees in the NMR.

The Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS) identifies the private sector in NMR as

the engine of growth. NMR faces major developmental challenges that include: a

high unemployment rate, a targeted approach to bring millions of families above

the poverty line, high inequality in income, considerable disparities in

development among the different regions, low investment rates, influx of

counterfeits goods, insecurity, weak governance, poor physical infrastructure,

heavy reliance on agriculture and export of primary products.

The mission for NMR economy are: building an internationally competitive and

inclusive economy for prosperity, building regional and global financial and other

services/hubs, building a regional trade and business service centre, eradicate

poverty, create the resources its people will need, creating a just and inclusive

systems that addresses the concerns of the weak and the vulnerable.

The challenges for achieving higher economic growth in NMR are many.

However; it possesses huge potentials in all the sectors of the economy such as

agricultural sector diversification and marketing, industrial growth and

upgradation, modernization of service industry. The diversification and

modernization of the economy further depends upon a host of factors such as

removing the infrastructure bottlenecks, development of ICT, establishments of

modern educational systems, diversification and modernization of tourism

industry along with establishment of eco-park, strengthening of the trade,

commerce and business activities, looking after environmental sustainability,

boosting up the consumer mechanism and thrift, removing political volatility and

incidence of insecurity, creation of employment opportunities, making planning

mechanism successful via implementation of inclusive planning oriented towards

programme of poverty eradication.

11. The Nairobi City lacks a clear planning strategy has led to unplanned, haphazard

pattern of development, leading to overconcentration of employment in the CBD

and industrial area, resulting in traffic congestion and environmental pollution,

and rapid growth of informal settlements (Ch. 8.0). The main problems faced by

NMR are providing shelter, basic urban services and transportation infrastructure,

improving its financial and institutional structure and management, and

formulating environmental policies and programmes.

The main issues which need immediate attention are: the interaction between the

different administrative units of the metropolis at the primary stage; the growth in

urban population concentrations and dependence upon employment availability

and informal settlements, and high incidence of urban poverty.

12. Land use is an integral component in any planning process (Ch. 9.0). It helps in

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page vi



estimating and analysing the quantum of land put to various uses and also the

quantum of land which can be utilized for future development. Landuse structures

of the following urban centres have been studied Nairobi, Thika, Ruiru, Limuru,

Kikuyu, Machakos, Athi River Town, Kajiado, and Kitengela.

Land use structure of the various urban centres of NMR, show that each town

has some portion of land under agricultural use which if required can be utilised

for further development of the towns. Another striking feature revealed in the land

use distribution is the fact that apart from Machakos, all other towns have very

less recreational spaces. Green spaces are very essential for both the health of

the town and the people.

13. Transport is an important component of a spatial development plan. Transport

impacts in a profound way the spatial structure of a city and its region. It

determines the directions of growth. Transport effects the economic viability and

social mobility of the region and its people. Transport consumes a large share of

the resources (land, capital, time environment, etc.) Appreciation of the transport

system of the region and the traffic and travel characteristics of the people is

important.(Ch. 10.0)

Kenya’s transport system comprises Road Network (159600 km), Rail Network

(2597 km), Airways (3 international and 17 commercial airports) a major port and

pipeline (900 km), Road system is the most important as it caters more than 85%

of travel demand in the country.

In NMR, the road system is the most predominant. The road network is of radial

pattern with Nairobi City as the focus. Orbital roads are missing. This has led to

concentration of activities within and intense traffic to and from the city.

9 radial road corridors traverse Nairobi City and extend into the region and

beyond. Of them Nairobi-Thika Road (A-2), Nairobi-Eldiret-Uganda) (A-104) and

Nairobi-Mombasa (A109) are important international trunk roads carrying large

volume of traffic. The major concentration of people and activities are along these

road corridors.

Nairobi city contains nearly 67% of the motor vehicles in Kenya.

Nairobi generates a large number of trips. Of them nearly 47% are by walk. Of

the motorised trips, public mass transport, comprising Matatus and buses,

account for about 70% of the share and nearly 4 million passengers per day.

Nairobi City screen line survey analysis shows following observations

A Maximum of 36858 vehicles was observed to be coming out of the

Nairobi CBD on to Uhuru highway from Haile Selassie Avenue

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page vii



The lowest volume of traffic entering on the Uhuru Highway from the CBD

area was 12561 vehicles on Lusaka Road

Mbagathi Way had a high proportion of cars (84% in the total traffic)

Haile Selassie Avenue had the lowest percentage of cars (21.85%)

Matatus constituted 55% of total traffic on Haile Selassie Avenue

Kenyatta Avenue had the lowest percentage of Matatu (1.2%)

About 15% of traffic on Lusaka Road which passes through the industrial

area consisted of LCVs

Traffic analysis indicates that passenger vehicles predominate on city roads while

goods traffic does not exceed 20% of the total traffic.

The traffic characteristics of the regional towns indicate a high intensity of walk

trips, long trip lengths by vehicles, high share of work trips and high dependence

on public transport modes, primarily the matatus.

A number of road development programs are under implementation. At the

regional level upgrading of Nairobi-Thika road is a major one with financial

assistance from African Development Bank and the Government of China. Within

Nairobi city southern and northern bypasses are under construction. Plans are

under preparation for improvement of Ngong Road, an important radial corridor.

The role of railways in enabling regional commuter movement is very limited.

However plans are on hand to upgrade the commuter rail system.

A recent feasibility study has identified a number of corridors, in the city and the

region, for development of high technology public mass transport systems

comprising Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) and Light Rail Transit Systems

(LRTS). The study has also proposed the development of an extensive regional

road network system with emphasis on orbital roads.

Institutional framework for the planning, development, operation and

management of the transport system is highly diffused with a number of

ministries, parastatals and private agencies involved. A coherent urban transport

policy and an effective institutional framework are urgent needs for the

development of an integrated transport system of NMR on a comprehensive,

continuous and coordinated manner

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page viii



14. Kenya has the study on the National Water Master Plan Geographical spread of

NMR occupies parts of 3 drainage basins - Tana River, Athi River and Rift Valley

Basin (Ch. 11.0). Only about 5% of Tana River Basin is within about 10% area of

NMR. About 70% areas of NMR is served by Athi River Basin and hence is the

vital element to support life in NMR. Water supply and Sanitation sector

interventions within NMR are managed by two boards namely – Athi Water

Services Board and Tanathi Water Services Board. The institutional framework

for water distribution is well organised with a number of parastatal and private

service providers.

Organised sewerage and sanitation facilities are available only in selected urban

centres within NMR. Predominant dependence is on Pit Latrines followed by

Septic Tanks. Open defecation by Children is also practiced. Available system

provisions are also malfunctioning primarily due to lack of operational and

maintenance support.

Due to naturally undulating terrain with a large network of natural streams form

an excellent combination, which assist drainage evacuation immensely. In some

areas combined sewers also are in place to provide relief. No organized system

of drainage also is known to be in place.

Physical component of the waste is very important in the selection of the

operation of equipment and facilities disposal strategy and disposal process. The

waste has grown by around 50% since 2006. In 2006, the Quantity of waste

received by Dandora site in Nairobi was 397.3 and in year 2009 quantity received

rose to 608.9 ton/day.

The KenGen is a licensed public electricity generator that is 70% owned by the

Government and 30% by the private shareholders. The company accounts for

about 60% of the installed capacity from various power generation sources that

include hydropower, thermal, geothermal and wind. Currently Nairobi city region

is supplied by three main supply points, Dandora 220/132 KV - 400 MVA,

Embarki 220/66 kV - 180 MVA and Nairobi North 220/66 kV – 180 MVA, a

combined total of 760 MVA against a peak demand of 570 MVA. From these

supply points power is transmitted to the city by 132 KV and 66 KV sub-

transmission systems. At present Kenya and NMR are having total installed

distribution transformer capacity 2415 MVA and 1694 MVA respectively.

The Power Purchase Agreements for Hydro, Thermal and Geothermal are based

on Capacity and Energy, signed with KPLC. Energy Regulatory Commission of

Kenya has set out the schedule of tariff, 2008 prescribing the tariffs, charges,

prices and rates to be charged by the Kenya power and Lighting Co. Ltd. to the

consumers for electrical energy consumed by them under Section 45 of the

Energy Act 2006.

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page ix



The geography of NMR poses a challenge to the development of telecommunication

network. There are certain areas that are lacking in infrastructure facility and

telecommunication network.

Quality of physical infrastructure and services is important in enabling Nairobi to

attain world class city status.

15. Like any other metropolis, there are a lot of apartments and big bungalow type

housing in Nairobi and low rise residential development in other parts of the

region. Even there are a lot of slum in the heart of the city of Nairobi.

Nairobi and NMR have a very low household size of 3.2 and 3.4 as compared to the

country’s average household size of 4.4.

Social amenities in NMR are also not evenly distributed over the region with Nairobi

forming the Hub of both educational and health facilities and in other parts of the

region one would have to travel a distance of 5km to 30km to avail these facilities.

16. The Environment Status in NMR consisting of geological features, drainage,

hydrology, climate, rainfall, temperature, drought and flood pattern (Ch. 13.0).

The Government of Kenya has established numerous goals and specific objectives

that relate to environmental policies and legislations. There is a need for an

integrated approach for environment planning in NMR. Environmental issues of the

region have to be identified and integrated in the development of the region. This will

not only initiate a healthy ecosystem but also achive the envisaged vision for NMR.

NMR has widespread forest lands, hills, national parks, numerous water bodies and

other green/open areas. The environment baseline consists of geological features,

drainage, hydrology, climate, rainfall, temperature, drought and flood pattern. Due to

increase in urbanization, particularly Nairobi city and surroundings, there is more

requirement of housing and other economic development that can provide more

employment in the region. Often these eco-sensetive areas are effected due to

various pollution or encroached disturbing the ecology. They are potential resources

of the region that need to be conserved to promote eco-tourism and boost the

regional economy.

17. The most prominent issues with urban environment in NMR for regional landscape

(Ch. 14.0) is to transform the urban place in such a way that a positive place

branding can be achieved. Presently important planning concerns are the following

which may be mitigated with effective urban planning policies-

Principally daylight economy

High level of crime and insecurity

Encroachment of conservation areas and river flood plains

Negative environmental impacts due to urban growth

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page x



18. The built form determines the urban aesthetics and the brand image of the city and its

region. Urban design aspects have been studied (Ch. 15.0) and investigated to

understand three main approaches such as:

Imagability of the city - the visual intelligibility which is shared by all inhabitants

through their mental perception

Quality to the urbanity of spaces, the unforced liveliness that creates sense of

safety and belonging

Effect of the geometric characteristics of physical elements of the urban fabric

building facades and street furniture

19. Effective institutional arrangement is important in the formulation, implementation and

coordination of the Spatial Development Plan for NMR (Ch. 16.0). A number of

organizations get established over a period of time with specific objectives, functions

and procedures. However, over the time development aspects and needs make the

organizations inadequate, in effective and uncoordinated. Institutional reforms and

restructuring become important and critical for implementation of plans and

achievements of envisaged vision.

The Government of the Republic of Kenya has put in place laws and regulations

that govern physical planning and development in the country. A well planned

physical development is critical for social-economic growth. A review of the

existing Acts listed belowhas been carried out to appreciate the legal framework

for the planning and implementation of the Spatial Development Plan.

The Physical Planning Act Cap 286

Local Government Act Chapter 265

The Local Government Act Cap 405

The Land Planning Act Chapter 303

The Registered Land Act Chapter 300

The Land Control Act Cap 302

The Land Acquisition Act Cap 295

Housing Act Chapter 117

The Water Act, 2002

Wildlife (Conservation and Management) Act Cap 376

The Forests Act, 2005

The Environment Management and Co-ordination Act 1999

The Kenya Roads Board Act 1999 Cap 408

The Kenya Roads Act 2007

Kenya Railways Corporation Act (CAP 397)

The Kenya Airports Authority Act, Cap 395

The Civil Aviation Act, Cap 394

The State Corporations Act, Chapter 446

Constituency Development Fund Act No. 11 of 2004

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page xi



The Physical Planning Act Cap 286 and the Local Government Act 265 plays a

vital role in Spatial Development Plan of NMR. The Act vests responsibilities of

the preparation of all spatial development plans, policies, guidelines and in

research, advising the Commissioner of Lands and local authorities on the most

appropriate use of land and requirement of proper execution of projects

Planning activities are carried out by different government agencies in NMR.

They work independently of each other and their outputs may not integrate both

spatial and non spatial aspects of development. Hence for the comprehesive, co-

ordinated and continuous planning, development, operation and management of

NMR, goverance/institutional refroms and restructuring is critical.

All the above-mentioned plans have been prepared at the national level. However; in

order to make it applicable at the regional and local level there is a need to develop a

conceptual frame, promote intense debate, arrive at consensus, pass enabling

statutes including relevant amendments to existing ones, constitute new

organizations, redistribute functions, powers and responsibilities amongst the many

actors and stakeholders at all levels of governance and, most important, nurture the

new organizations with care and dedication to enable them to grow, mature and

discharge their functions and responsibilities in an effective and sustained manner.

20. The existing resource mobilization patterns in NMR are important to analyze before

switching over to any improvement and suggestions (Ch. 17.0) . Presently there are

three important sources for mobilization of resource in NMR such as mobilization of

fund by Government, financing by development partners, and resource mobilization

through external source. The Government sources includes: revenue collection

through tax administration, domestic financing through net lending to public

institutions, public debt, deficit financing, fiscal decentralization, and mobilization of

resources by city council & local authorities. Financing by development partners

includes private sector financing, public private partnerships. The external source of

borrowing includes borrowing funds from major financial institutions.

21. An understanding of the stakeholders needs, perception and suggestions is

impotrant. The discussions and the response of the stakeholders’ with varied

background, interest and perception has been invaluable in the appreciation of the

stakeholders’ needs, perceptions and suggestions. The preliminary stakeholders’

analysis would include the following aspects: concept of SDP for NMR; ideas about

world class cities; land; growth directions; and NMR after 20 years. They will form the

basis and act as valuable guidelines in the formulation of the Concept Spatial

Development Plan of NMR (Ch. 18.0).

22. A SWOT Analysis of different sectors of NMR such as population, economy,

environment, land, transport including an area-wise SWOT analysis has been

detailed out, which includes Nairobi, Thika, Kiambu, Kajiado and Machakos. This is

followed by an overall SWOT Analysis for NMR. Emphasis need to be given to

overcome the weakness and threats through judicious exploitation of strengths and

Project: Preparation of Spatial Plan for Nairobi Metropolitan Region of Kenya Page xii



potentials within Nairobi Metropolitan Region (Ch. 19.0)

23. Kenya is experiencing rapid urbanization. Presently there is no comprehensive

National Urbanization Policy guiding, facilitating and promoting a balanced

urbanization pattern. There are a number of sub-sectoral policies like Housing Policy,

Transport Policy, Land Policy, Infrastructure Policy which are uni-functional in

nature. The pattern of urbanization in the country is highly skewed with the Nairobi

area dominating and large regions of the country left with low urbanization. There is

an urgent need for a National Urbanization Policy which has many dimensions. It

needs to be supported and enabled by a number of sectoral policies including

population, land, housing, transport, physical services, social services, monetary,

fiscal, legal and institutional (Ch. 20.0).

24. A visual perception of NMR is presented through photographs (Ch. 21.0). The visual

walk-through starts with Nairobi and then travel to the neighbouring towns of the

region.The visual presentation establishes the inherent beauty of the city that needs

to be conserved and enhanced through a conceptual spatial planning and

development to achieve the status of a World class city/ region.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Working Paper on

NMR 2030: Population

Forecast & Distribution,

Employment, Occupation

Structure and Urban Land

Use Structure


Document: 2010063/UPD/ Working Paper February, 2011 Executive Summary R0

Study on


Working Paper

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY People concentrate in urban areas/regions to benefit from the variety of opportunities the

urban areas offer. People and activities need space and services. The productivity and

competitiveness of, and the quality of life in, an urban area depends on the harmonious

balance between demand and supply of various needs. The Spatial Development Plan

(SDP) of an urban area/region is an expression of this balance. The Working Paper, on an

appreciation of the present population, employment and land use characteristics and their

trends in the Nairobi Metropolitan Region (NMR) and its component units, presents the

forecasts the population in the NMR under different scenarios of development. The forecast

of 15.14 million, by 2030, under Vision Scenario, has been selected for detailing the SDP.

The distribution of the forecast population in the different spatial units has been made. As a

development policy, it is proposed to contain the population of Nairobi city, by 2030, to be

5.25 million.

Kenya Vision 2030 envisages a sustained growth of GDP at 10% upto 2030. The GDP of

NMR has to grow at a higher rate of 15%, in the initial decades. Presently the people in the

age group 15-64 are considered as the labour force. However, with socio-economic

development, the labour force size will reduce. Based on revised WPR of NMR and the

component spatial units, the employment size in NMR as a total, in the sub-regions and in

urban centres have been forecast. The WPR of urban areas, by 2030, is proposed to be

35% and of rural areas to be 40%. The employment size in NMR, by 2030, is estimated to

be 5.4 million, an almost threefold increase from the present. The occupation structures of

the urban areas have been proposed based on their envisaged functions.

Presently the economy of NMR is highly informal, the ratio of formal to informal employment

being 1:3.96 in NMR and 1:3.98 in Nairobi. With development, it is envisaged that there will

be formalization of the economy, an objective of Nairobi Metro Vision 2030. It is assumed

that the ratios will normalize to 1:2 in NMR and 1:1 in Nairobi City.

Land is a critical need for the planning and development of urban areas. Policy towards

adoption of city level gross densities is important to estimate land area required. Optimum

city level densities, based on city size (population), have been conceptualized. Based on the

function, the land use structures of the different urban centres have been proposed.

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