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S p a t i a l t ra n s f o r m a t i o n i n S A n c i t i e s GTAC Public Economic Winter School 2016 | Edgar Pieterse – 11 July 2016
• Urbanisation: Basic Orientation
• South African Urbanisation: Spatial paradox & persistent inequality
• Policy canvass & the limits of technocracy
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U R BA N I SAT I O N R E A L I T Y C H E C K
World&Popula+on&Prospects:&The&2012&Revision,&visit&www.unpopula+on.org&
We are heading for a 10 billion plus future…
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Urbanisation by region, 1950-2050
Country status based on income per person
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n as
% o
f to
tal p
opul
atio
ns 100%&
0%&
1. LDC, e.g. Uganda, Mali
2. Low-income, e.g. Zim, Kenya
3. Lower middle-income, e.g. Ghana, India, Egypt
4. Upper middle-income, e.g. Brazil, China, South Africa, Russia
5. Upper income, e.g. G8 plus most of OECD
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Relationship between
urbanization & GNI
Urbanisation level
Per capita gross national income, 2008 in $US
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
130 1300
Percen
tage)pop
ulation)urba
nised
GDP)per)capita,)constant)2005)US$)(log)scale)
Ethiopia
UgandaMalawi
Kenya
Guinea<Bissau
Zimbabwe
Madagascar
GhanaNigeria
Cameroon
Liberia
SouthAfrica
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1,000 10,000
Percen
tage)pop
ulation)urba
nised
GDP)per)capita,)constant)2005)US$)(log)scale)
Venezuela
Mexico
Brazil
Panama
Chile
Uruguay
Colombia
Peru
EcuadorParaguay
Urbanisation and econ development in Latin America Urbanisation and economic development in Africa
Source: World Development Indicators Note: The data correspond to changes between 1985 and 2012 for each country
1750& 1850& 1950&
Pop:&423m&/&52%&urban&
Pop:&15m&/&10%&urban&
1950& 2030&Pop:&309m&/&18%&urban&
Pop:&3.9bn&/&56%&urban&
First urbanisation wave in global North
Second urbanisation wave
in global South The 2nd Urbanization wave must be managed whilst basic needs are satisfied at an unprecedented scale, economic foundations are built, and the low-carbon economic transition has to be effected!
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‘Resilient' growth (macro)
Incl
usive
grow
th (m
acro
) Liveability (micro) SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
Human Development (education, health & social
protection)
GDP growth, job creation & resource
productivity
GHG Emission Reduction, Resource
Efficiency & Ecosystem service regeneration
Normative frame SDG era
197 282 632
854 927
33 87
414
858
1265
1950 1970 2011 2035 2050
Rural Urban
AFRICAN URBANIZATION, 1950-2050
257k%in%slums%(62%)%
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During the brutal apartheid era (1948-94), land-use planning was used to enforce racial segregation prevalent since the origins of colonial urbanism in the 17th Century. The planning and racist governmental intent proved hugely successful…
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SOUTH AFRICAN URBANISATION
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Percentage of population and growth rate of SA cities and towns
Source:&SACN&2016:&23&
“Almost half (46%) of South Africa’s pop is concentrated in the metros and their surrounds. In 2011, & just four city-regions (Gauteng, Cape Town, eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay) contained 42% of South Africa’s population.”
SINCE 1994, THE STATE HAS PROVIDED OVER 4 MILLION SUBSIDIES & BUILT CLOSE TO 3 MILLION UNITS…
Despite this being one of the largest and most ambitious public housing programmes in the
world, it has had the paradoxical effect of worsening urban fragmentation, segregation &
spatial inequality…
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What’s going on?
• Public housing is on the periphery, reinforcing low-density sprawl
• These houses depreciate rapidly and burdens households with no/little income with an unaffordable reproductive cost
• It raises the cost threshold for connective trunk infrastructure
• It further disconnects poor people from potential economic opportunities and deepens various lines of intra-urban inequality
• Overall effect: worsening of the apartheid space-economy of segregation, division & fragmentation, eroding social cohesion
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In 1995, Du Noon was planned and approved for 2 936 households and a population of 14 093. By 2013, there were 16 881 households and a population of 66 6600! The infrastructure and housing were only designed for the planned population. Source: CCT, 2015
DU NOON, 2000 2012
22
DIEPSLOOT EXT. 1: 2000 - 2009
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THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM • South Africa is trapped in a PARADOX: the
more it pursues redistributive social policies that reduces material poverty, the more is worsens spatial inequalities, which in turn reinforces economic and cultural marginalisation.
• Instead of confronting this policy paradox, more and more policies and programmes are allowed to proliferate creating confusion, inaction and ‘more-of-the-same’ with some tinkering on the edges…
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POLICY CANVASS
South Africa is certainly trying…
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SPLUMA
National Spatial Development Framework & Observatory
Integrated Urban Development Framework (IUDF)
Green/White Paper on Human Settlements
Powers & functions review
Grant alignment & incentivisation >> spatial targeting: USDG, PTISG, NDPG via City Support Programme & manifest in Built Environment Performance Plans
DHS National Human Settlements Spatial Master Plan
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The IUDF identifies eight levers to effect policy change premised on the belief that (1) spatial planning forms the basis for achieving integrated urban development, which
follows a specific sequence of urban policy actions: (2) integrated transport that informs (3) targeted investments into integrated human settlements, underpinned by (4) integrated infrastructure network systems and (5) efficient land governance, which all together can trigger (6) economic diversification and inclusion, and (7) empowered communities, which in turn will demand (8) deep governance reform to enable and sustain all of the above.
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• Urban Network Strategy, as the basis for Transit Oriented Development
• Integration Zones for spatially targeted, cross-sectoral public investment
• Catalytic projects that are results focused, strategically located, integrated, multi-sectoral and partnership-based
CAPE TOWN CARICATURE
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Cape Town is arguably one of the most compliant metros in terms of national expectations: • Indigents’ policy & top-up investments
through cross-subsidisation • Utilises most of annual housing subsidies
& trying to innovative within that frame • Aggressively pursuing BRT within a TOD
framework • Conducting spatial-economic analysis to
improve the spatial impacts of public and private investments
MAJORITY CITY (TOWNSHIPS)
ELITE CITY (SUBURBS)
MIXED CITY
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Source: City of Cape Town, 2015
MAJORITY CITY ELITE CITY
MIXED CITY
Through TOD model…
- Basic service provision - Sites and services - Upgrading - BNG housing - Improved BRT access
- Maintain service standards & enhance infrastructure - Promote new real estate investment
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Source: BEPP, City of Cape Town, 2015
The current model of TOD development boils down to a 20-30 year agenda to lay the basis for real-estate driven urban integration and reconfiguration… IS THIS GOOD ENOUGH?
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Is it possible that we can have all the “right” policies, concepts and plans and still make no impact on the challenges facing the city?
• What will it take for South Africa to optimise the urban dividend?
• What is in the realm of public policy and what is not?
• Who should take the lead?
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www.africancentreforcities.net