30/04/2019

SPECIAL ADVISORY

Security risks and cultural considerations during Ramadan 2019

Ramadan at a glance P3

Africa P4

Asia Pacific

Pakistan P5

China P6

Thailand P7

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria P8

Egypt P8

Tunisia P9

Turkey P9

Advice - Africa / APAC P10

Advice - MENA P11

Table of contents

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The Islamic holy month of Ramadan will commence on 5th May 2019, and will culminate

with the celebration of Eid al-Fitr on 4th June.

Ramadan falls in the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. Due to differences between the

Muslim calendar and the Gregorian calendar, the date for Ramadan changes yearly.

Ramadan is the period when Muslims abstain from food and drink between sunrise and

sunset. Ramadan is seen as a time of reflection and during this period Muslims are

encouraged to participate in charity, fasting and prayer. It is a significant event and constitutes

one of the Five Pillars of Islam (almsgiving, faith, fasting, pilgrimage and worship).

During the holy month, Muslims will rise early to eat a pre-dawn meal called Suhoor. In the

evening, the fast is broken with a meal known as Iftar. Nightly prayers, called Tarawih, are

also held in mosques after Iftar. Iftar may take the form of large public buffets or free meals at

mosques and community centres. Although traditions and practices during Ramadan may

differ by region and across cultures, the core principles remain the same.

Logistical Considerations

Opening hours of businesses and government offices will be impacted, with some

organisations opening for shorter hours. Business operations, especially those in Muslim-

majority countries, will experience disruption, such as a reduction in working hours and

delayed decision-making.

Areas in the vicinity of mosques will likely be crowded during prayer time and Iftar. There

remains a potential for traffic disruption near large mosques in urban centres. Large crowds

are expected at various Iftar gatherings and during Eid al-Fitr when Muslims celebrate the end

of Ramadan.

Etiquette in Muslim-majority countries

Try to avoid planning work lunches, and schedule any meetings so that it will not clash with

prayer times.

Refrain from playing loud music in public places or behaving in a way that may be

considered disrespectful.

Although in some countries non-Muslims are legally not required to fast, it is advisable to

refrain from consuming food and drink, or smoking in public places.

Local laws and customs relating to the business etiquette and behaviour may differ by

region and country.

Ramadan at a glance

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The most prominent Islamist threat actor in the region remains the Somalia-based al-

Shabaab group. Its leaders regularly call for increased attacks during the Ramadan period,

and previous years have seen an uptick in terrorist activity. However, in 2018 an increase in

proactive security force operations put the group into a defensive posture and curbed its

offensive. The Kenyan police also warn of al-Shabaab’s intent to carry out attacks in the

county during Ramadan, highlighting eastern and coastal regions as being most at risk, in

addition to urban centres countrywide.

Affiliates of Islamic State (IS) have established a presence across the region. One such

group is active in Somalia and claimed the only successful attack in Mogadishu of 2018’s

Ramadan period, an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion on 29th May which killed

six government intelligence personnel. Another affiliate recently claimed its first attack in the

Democratic Republic of Congo, though local sources suggest the attack was carried out by

Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants. The Islamist insurgency in Mozambique’s Cabo

Delgado province is largely motivated by local grievances and its lack of central leadership

and public statements make its intentions difficult to assess. There is however a realistic

possibility its operational tempo will increase during Ramadan.

Anti-government mobilisation in Sudan is also likely to be bolstered during the

Ramadan period. Protesters are likely to gather at the ongoing sit-in at the Army General

Command in Khartoum to break their daily fast – demonstrations have previously occurred

around Islamic holidays.

East Africa

The Islamist Boko Haram group is likely to increase its activity in the Lake Chad area

during the month of Ramadan. A study of the group’s activity from 2011-2017 found that its

attacks peaked during the month, though this is also due to the oncoming rainy season and

increased cover provided by replenished vegetation. In 2018 the group targeted a celebration

to mark the end of Ramadan in Damboa, Borno State, killing over 30 people.

A Shia Muslim group, the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, is expected to conduct more

protests during the period, calling for the release of its leader Ibrahim el-Zakzaky.

International Quds Day falls on 31st May and is usually marked by protests in Abuja. These

have previously turned violent – in 2014 the security forces opened fire on protesting

members of the Islamic Movement, killing 35 people.

Islamist militant activity has intensified across the Sahel over the past year, with both

Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin

(JNIM) expanding their operational footprint. These groups are likely to attempt higher-

profile attacks during the Ramadan period to mark the festival and capitalise on its symbolic

value. Crowds gathering during evening hours to break the fast present an attractive target

for militants.

West Africa

Security risks by region - AFRICA

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Security risks by region - APAC

An uptick in militant attacks is expected as Ramadan coincides with the Taliban’s

annual spring offensive, which was declared on 12th April.

The spring offensive seeks to further destabilise the Afghan government by staging mass-

casualty attacks, even amid ongoing peace negotiations with the US. In 2017, at least 18

people were killed on the first day of Ramadan alone. The 2019 spring offensive will pose a

challenge to the Afghan security forces as they continue to lose control of territory; as of

October 2018, the Afghan government controlled only 53.8% of the total districts. The

Taliban is likely to be motivated to increase their leverage in potential peace negotiations

with the US. Taliban militants killed 16 Afghan soldiers and captured 40 others in Badghis

province as representatives met with US envoys in Doha, Qatar in March.

The trend is likely to continue throughout the entire Ramadan period, though the

Taliban may announce a ceasefire for the duration of Eid al-Fitr as a reciprocal

gesture. The Taliban declared a three-day ceasefire in June 2018 after the Afghan

government enforced an eight-day ceasefire, though Taliban attacks on foreign security

forces continued. Attacks targeting large urban centres will likely take the form of bombings.

Taliban attacks focusing on Afghan forces strongholds scattered throughout rural areas are

expected to take the form of a ground assault mounted by Taliban militants.

Afghanistan

The risk of a high-profile attack targeting urban centres increases around Ramadan.

Islamist militant groups often capitalise on the festive period of Ramadan to perpetrate

attacks. In 2017, several militant attacks in Quetta, Karachi and Parachinar resulted in 73

people killed and more than 100 other wounded. The attacks were claimed by several

militant groups affiliated to IS, as well as by Pakistani Taliban militant groups like Jamaat-ur-

Ahra. Historical precedence indicates that the attacks are likely to be driven by sectarian

hostility, given that most of the attacks during Ramadan were conducted by Sunni militant

groups. As a consequence, flashpoints for unrest are localised to Shia-dominated areas, and

locations close to government buildings or places with high levels of pedestrian traffic.

Pakistan

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Security risks by region - APAC

China

The risk of unrest increases during Ramadan as a result of the antagonistic

relationship between the ethnic Uighurs and the Chinese authorities.

Southern Xinjiang is home to the majority of China’s Uighur population, an ethnic minority

that primarily practices Islam. There have been several high-profile periods of unrest in the

region. On the eve of Ramadan in July 2011, a series of knife and bomb attacks took place in

Kashgar, Xinjiang resulting in a total of 37 people killed and 57 others wounded. The unrest

prompted the authorities to deploy more security personnel. The continued securitisation of

Xinjiang is also accompanied by laws which curtail religious freedom. In March 2017, the

Chinese authorities banned the burqa and Islamic baby names. The detention of one million

Muslims in Xinjiang detention camps, alongside the large-scale migration of the Han Chinese

population into previously Muslim-majority regions, has also further deepened the grievances

against the administration.

The operational capacity of Islamist militant groups in Xinjiang remains limited.

Islamic State has published several propaganda pieces in recent years calling on

disenfranchised Uighurs to rally against oppression by the Chinese government. However, IS

currently does not have much traction among the Uighur population and lacks any notable

physical presence in the country, limiting its effectiveness to conduct terrorist attacks in

China. Likewise, although the al-Qaeda-linked Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has established

a two-decade-long prominence among the Uighur militant groups, its operations and

resources remain focused and limited to the Middle East. However, low-intensity attacks

targeting major urban centres cannot be ruled out. Militants may utilise readily available

weapons such as knifes or perpetrate vehicle-ramming incidents. The TIP claimed

responsibility for a vehicle-ramming incident at Tiananmen Square, Beijing in October 2013;

five people were killed and dozens others were wounded.

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Security risks by region - APAC

Thailand

Militant activity in Thailand’s southern provinces usually increases during Ramadan.

Various Islamist groups operate in the Muslim-majority provinces of Yala, Narathiwat, Pattani

and Songkhla, and militant activity typically increases during Ramadan. The profile of attacks

during Ramadan does not deviate much from previous occurrences, composed of bombings

and ambushes that are typically targeted at the security forces or areas with high pedestrian

traffic. Earlier in April, two members of the border patrol police force were shot and killed as

they were praying in a mosque in Yala province by suspected Muslim insurgents. The

potential for spillover of militant activity into the adjacent provinces of Satun, Trang, and

Phatthalung cannot be ruled out.

The profile of attacks has been showing signs of an increase in sophistication over

the past year, and there are preliminary indications of an expansion of militant activity

into neighbouring provinces.

Although militant attacks have generally featured rudimentary improvised explosive devices

(IEDs), which have caused limited fatalities, reports of coordinated attacks and the use of

stronger IEDs suggests that militant targeting patterns might be changing. In January 2018, a

motorcycle IED killed three people and wounded more than 20 others when it detonated in

Yala. There may also be initial indications of militant activity expanding beyond the four

Muslim-majority provinces. Several coordinated explosions were reported in Satun and

Phatthalung over a weekend in March. Although the police are still investigating the

explosions, they may have been perpetrated by Islamist separatist groups from the four

aforementioned provinces; a vehicle used in the bombings originated from Songkhla.

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Security risks by region - MENA

Algeria

Widespread anti-government protests will likely intensify during Ramadan. These have

been taking place since February 2018 when President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who suffered a

stroke in 2013 and was rarely seen in public, announced he would be running for a fifth term

in office. Demonstrations have been taking place weekly and have attracted hundreds of

thousands of attendants, which led to the suspension of the country’s elections. Despite

Bouteflika stepping down and fresh elections being called, precedent suggests protests will

intensify during Ramadan.

Protests have remained largely peaceful. The police have on occasion used tear gas and

water canon to disperse crowds, but casualty figures have remained low; violence may

intensify during Ramadan.

Militant attacks remain unlikely. Despite a regional trend that indicates that the risk of

militant attacks increases during Ramadan, there has not been a single suicide bombing in-

country since the beginning of 2018. This is unlikely to change during Ramadan.

Egypt

The risk of militant attack is increased in urban centres during Ramadan, especially

around religious sites. We rate Egypt as having a MODERATE security risk rating, owing to

numerous attacks on urban centres such as Cairo, Alexandria and Luxor in recent years.

The source of attacks would likely be Islamic State groups operating in the North Sinai,

where the security risks are EXTREME. Wilayat Sinai, the IS affiliate in the North Sinai has

demonstrated operational capabilities by carrying out attacks on urban centres during Ramadan

in the past years. In 2017, the group claimed responsibility for an attack on a bus carrying

Coptic Christians that killed 29 people near the city of Minya, 152 miles (145km) south of Cairo.

The security forces in Egypt are capable, and heightened security measures should be

anticipated for the duration of Ramadan. There were no major attacks in Ramadan in 2018

and the security forces enacted a large-scale crackdown on the political opposition that has

restricted Islamist groups’ operational manoeuvrability. Islamist extremist groups that are

operating in the North Sinai have expressed intent to carry out further attacks, however many of

these are thwarted by the Egyptian security forces. Time spent in the vicinity of potential targets

such as mosques and Coptic Christian sites should be minimised where possible.

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Security risks by region - MENA

Turkey Despite a decrease in terrorist attacks in recent years, Ramadan is a high-profile

occasion that terrorist groups may seek to capitalise on. An attack carried out by Islamic

State (IS) militants targeting Istanbul Ataturk Airport in June 2016 occurred during Ramadan;

41 people were killed and 230 were wounded. Islamic State’s defeat in Syria and Turkey’s

increase in counter-terror efforts have depleted IS’ operational capabilities in urban centres,

but the risk of high-profile attacks against hard infrastructure and religious sites is increased

during Ramadan.

Anti-government protests have also occurred during Ramadan. Turkey is a largely

secular country, but 99% of the population are Muslim and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

has sought to promote a religious agenda during his tenure. Secular local nationals have

claimed that those observing Ramadan have carried out physical and verbal assaults on

those they believe not to be observing the fast. Protests have also intensified on Ramadan in

regards to the Israeli-Palestine conflict, with protesters encircling the Israeli consulate in

Istanbul during Ramadan in 2018.

There are currently heightened political tensions in-country owing to disputed local

elections. President Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) recently lost

local elections in key cities and has called for a rerun of the poll. Erdogan may use Ramadan

as an opportunity to mobilise his supporters and organise large rallies as a show of strength

following the elections.

Tunisia

Previous trends indicate that there is an increased likelihood of public agitation and

unrest. The Mouch Bessif group (meaning ‘not against our will’) organised demonstrations in

Tunis and other large urban centres in 2017 and 2018, to protest for the right not to fast,

which culminated in several people being detained. The demonstrations in 2017 were in

response to the arrest of a man in Bizerte who was apprehended for smoking in public during

fasting hours, and continued in 2018. These will likely reoccur in 2019.

The security forces carry out regular raids and operations to counter terror cells

belonging to al-Qaeda militants and IS (Islamic State), which somewhat negates the

threat posed by Islamist militants. Nonetheless, militant groups will likely have determined

intent to carry out attacks on high profile locations during Ramadan. These include hotels,

shopping centres, tourist sites and restaurants. This risk is most prolific in border areas with

Algeria and Libya.

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General security advice

As a standard security precaution, travellers should minimise time spent in

unsecured, crowded areas in the immediate vicinity of government infrastructure and

religious sites.

Plan itineraries to account for the reduction in business hours during Ramadan,

arrange business meetings in the morning where possible.

Refrain from photographing worshippers during prayers.

Locals in observant communities may be more tired and irritable than usual, and as

such, travellers should be patient in interactions.

Dress modestly and respect local cultures; foreign travellers are usually afforded

some leeway in regard to conservative dress but there have been reports of attacks on

foreigners in recent years due to perceived disrespect.

Adopting common sense precautions will largely mitigate any risks posed by

opportunistic crime. Travellers should avoid carrying valuables on their person and

leave them locked in a hotel safe; better still, avoid bringing them altogether. When

carrying essential, high-value goods, travellers should avoid overt displays of wealth

and take care not to attract unwanted attention, particularly in more remote areas located

away from central thoroughfares.

Where possible, travellers should seek to book transport through trusted local

providers (hotels will often provide details). It is strongly advised that travel is avoided in

the hours preceding and immediately following iftar when traffic is most intense and the

frequency of traffic collisions is highest. Ensure adequate supplies of non-perishable

food and water are kept in accommodation in order to avoid unnecessary travel during

peak times (around sundown).

Contact the Healix GSOC for further country-specific information or pre-trip

travel advice.

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Region Advice

Africa Cultural

In Muslim-majority West African countries, believers abstain from eating

or drinking during daylight hours, and are also expected to refrain from

other un-Islamic behaviour including smoking.

Female Travellers

Females should wear loose-fitting clothes and have their shoulders and

legs covered in coastal areas of Tanzania, as well as Chad, Mauritania,

Mali, Niger, Kenya and rural areas of Sudan. In more conservative areas

such as Somalia, north-eastern Nigeria, north-eastern Mali and Darfur,

female travellers should wear a headscarf.

Disruption

Islamic communities are found mostly in coastal areas of East Africa, so

any travel disruption should be limited to these areas. Most hotelis (small

restaurants) close during daylight hours, and fasting is widespread. There

is little pressure for non-Muslims to participate. Public transport and

official business aren't generally affected in Mombasa and Malindi, but

expect disruptions further up the coast.

APAC Cultural

Be aware that traditions and cultural practices may differ not only between

regions, but also within countries.

Be mindful that when invited for iftar, travellers are advised to use their

right hand to eat as the left hand is typically used for bodily hygiene.

Security Considerations

Travel to countries like Afghanistan or Pakistan where there is a HIGH

and above security risk rating would require travelers to adhere to security

precautions which would include taking professional profile and travel-risk

assessments.

Female Travellers

In conservative countries, like Pakistan and Afghanistan, women should

wear loose fitting clothes and a headscarf. Female travellers should

remain vigilant and cover their legs and shoulders in less conservative

Muslim majority areas.

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Regional security advice

Region Advice

MENA Security and Cultural Considerations

Laws vary from country to country. Actions that may not be considered

illegal during Ramadan may still draw unwanted attention. Liaise with

local contacts in order to understand specific local laws and customs.

We strongly recommend minimising non-essential travel in the immediate

vicinity of security infrastructure and religious sites, as these are priority

targets for the IS militant group. Where travel to these sites is essential or

unavoidable, care should be taken to minimise time spent in crowded

entranceways and unsecured areas.

Avoid all Coptic Christian sites in Egypt where there is no reason to

attend, as these have been common targets for attacks in the past.

Minimise time spent on the outskirts of churches if attending, and identify

easily accessible exit routes.

Travellers should liaise with trusted local fixers when travelling to Tunisia

and ensure that itinerary-specific planning identifies likely flashpoint

areas. Where possible, routes should be planned to avoid these areas

and time spent in their vicinity minimised.

Female Travellers

Women should cover their knees and shoulders in order to avoid

attracting attention; security personnel may enact stricter rules during the

month of Ramadan. This also applies for urban centres in across the

Middle East.

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Regional security advice

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