(https://www.facebook.com/SmallWarsJournal) (https://twitter.com/smallwars) (/content/feeds Register (/User/Register) Support Us (/Content/Support) Log In (/U (/) SPECIAL OPERATIONS SUPPORT TO CONFLICT PREVENTION Share this Post Special Operations Support to Conflict Prevention Assad A. Raza "Preventing the collapse of a state where the infrastructure is under immense strain can save a country from mass slaughter of civilians, violent conflict, and gross abuses of human rights. Thus, prevention is tied into the need to avoid human suffering in certain states, and the need to prevent violence from taking place.” -- Jacob Bercovitch and Richard Jackson Figure 1: United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Curve of Conflict Introduction Soon after the end of the Cold War, political expert Samuel P. Huntington wrote an article titled “The Clash of Civilizations” in 1993. Huntington emphasized how globalization contributed to the increased tensions between different cultures, as societies feared their values and identities were threatened. Fast forward 24 years and populist nationalism and violent extremism are growing all over the world. Significant and lasting diplomatic issues can be correlated to technological advancements, which amplify these sentiments globally. In Europe, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union and the threats by France’s nationalist party to withdraw from the EU during their recent elections demonstrates the weight popular sentiment carries through many nations. In the Middle East, the world witnessed the Arab Spring as an underemployed and an overlooked demographic—the Arab Street—protested the corruption and human right abuses carried out by their governments. Moreover, in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State Articles (https://www.fa u=https%3A%2F%2Fsmallwarsjournal.com%2Fjrn 1 2 3 RECENT HEADLINES Spying for China: Former US Intel Offic Vet Pleads Guilty to Attempted Espiona (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/yo military/2019/03/18/spying-for-china-for intel-officer-army-vet-pleads-guilty-to- attempted-espionage/? utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=em %20Marine%20Corps%20- %20Daily%20News%20Roundup) by K Rempfer - Military Times DoD Requests Almost $23B for Key Int Account (https://www.defensenews.com/smr/fed budget/2019/03/18/dod-requests-almos billion-for-key-intel-account/? utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=em %20Marine%20Corps%20- %20Daily%20News%20Roundup) by A Mehta - Defense News Military bases in Nebraska Battle Flood Offutt AFB, Camp Ashland Remain Und Water (https://www.stripes.com/news/us/milita bases-in-nebraska-battle-flooding-as-of camp-ashland-remain-under-water-1.57 by Rose L. Thayer - Stars & Stripes This is What the 7th Fleet’s Sawyer Had About China (https://www.navytimes.com/news/your navy/2019/03/18/this-is-what-the-7th-fle sawyer-had-to-say-about-china/? utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=em 18-19&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Na %20Daily%20News%20Roundup) by J Gomez - AP Syria’s Civil War Is Now 3 Civil Wars (https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/18/sy civil-war-is-now-3-civil-wars/? utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=em by Jonathan Spyer - Foreign Policy US Military Presence in Syria is ‘Illegitim Says Defense Minister (https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoin military-presence-in-syria-is-illegitimate defense-minister/) by Albert Aji - AP Pentagon Sends Congress List of Milita Construction Projects that Could be De Search https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/special-operations-support-conflict-prevention 3/18/19, 10>30 PM Page 1 of 8
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SPECIAL OPERATIONS SUPPORT TO CONFLICT PREVENTION
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Special Operations Support to Conflict Prevention
Assad A. Raza
"Preventing the collapse of a state where the infrastructure is under immense strain cansave a country from mass slaughter of civilians, violent conflict, and gross abuses ofhuman rights. Thus, prevention is tied into the need to avoid human suffering in certainstates, and the need to prevent violence from taking place.”
-- Jacob Bercovitch and Richard Jackson
Figure 1: United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Curve of Conflict
Introduction
Soon after the end of the Cold War, political expert Samuel P. Huntington wrote an article titled “The Clashof Civilizations” in 1993. Huntington emphasized how globalization contributed to the increased tensionsbetween different cultures, as societies feared their values and identities were threatened. Fast forward24 years and populist nationalism and violent extremism are growing all over the world. Significant andlasting diplomatic issues can be correlated to technological advancements, which amplify thesesentiments globally. In Europe, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union and the threatsby France’s nationalist party to withdraw from the EU during their recent elections demonstrates theweight popular sentiment carries through many nations. In the Middle East, the world witnessed the ArabSpring as an underemployed and an overlooked demographic—the Arab Street—protested the corruptionand human right abuses carried out by their governments. Moreover, in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State
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of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) gained the support of a disenfranchised Sunni population to seize vast amounts ofterritory between eastern Syria and western Iraq in an attempt to establish a self-governing state, with theintent for a global caliphate. A key contributor to the movements mentioned is the considerable amount ofinformation shared through social media that has increased the rate of globalization and has amplifiedunderlying grievances that lead to violence. As the world is becoming increasingly interconnected, the riskfor populist or extremist groups to exploit discontented populations for their interests will continue to grow.For this reason, future conflict will be exacerbated by the effects of globalization and the democratizationof technology which intensifies social disparities that were once isolated.
The Concept
In the age of accelerated globalization and its toll exacted on conflict, the United States SpecialOperations Command (USSOCOM) should prioritize conflict prevention activities to achieve US nationalsecurity objectives. According to Joint Publication 3-07.3, conflict prevention is “a peace operationemploying complementary diplomatic, civil, and, when necessary, military means, to monitor and identifythe causes of conflict, and take timely action to prevent the occurrence, escalation, or resumption ofhostilities.” For conflict prevention to be successful, it takes a holistic approach, which includes allelements of national power, international partners, and a coordinated policy to implement them.USSOCOM is the only organization within the Department of Defense (DoD) that has the uniquecapabilities and best-skilled forces with the political, cultural, and regional knowledge to take on thechallenge of conflict prevention. This article will focus on special operations forces (SOF) approachtowards conflict prevention and the challenges associated with it.
Conflict Prevention
Conflict prevention, also referred to as preventive diplomacy, is a method that’s been discussed by theUnited Nations, and other international organizations to prevent and manage escalating tensions to avoidconflicts, and to set the conditions for long-term peace and stability. Witnessing the conflicts that aroseimmediately after the end of the Cold War, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, former UN Secretary General, wanteda more pro-active approach that would reduce the risk of violence and act as an early warning system forareas where conflict appeared imminent. In 1992, Boutros re-prioritized the importance for the UN tochange their approach towards conflict prevention rather than focusing on peace-making or peace-keeping, which happens in the aftermath of violent conflicts. However, Boutros’ approach was morefocused on prevention rather than addressing the root causes of conflict.
Authors Carment and Schnabel stated that conflict prevention is a “long-term proactive operational andstructural strategy undertaken by a variety of actors, intended to identify and create enabling conditionsfor a stable and more predictable international security environment.” Thus in Carment and Schnabel’sframework, conflict prevention would involve several other US government agencies, internationalorganizations (IGOs), regional organizations, coalition partners, and nongovernmental organizations(NGOs) to create the conditions necessary to prevent conflicts from emerging.
These SOF professionals can focus on a combination of contributing factors such as social, political, andeconomic grievances and help target those root causes that can lead to violence. However, tosuccessfully implement this approach, it requires an integrated strategy in which SOF would play asupporting role. SOF can assist other agencies and local/regional partners by monitoring the informationenvironment to identify early signs for potential conflicts, assist partners with social and economicinitiatives, and work with local partners on strategic communications to promote stability and dissuadesupport to competing actors. In this role, SOF can also, collaborate with state and local indigenouspartners to build trust between conflicting parties and identify any potential signs of violence before theyerupt.
The Internet
Social media has been a major contributor in influencing political outcomes, mobilizing demonstrations,and instigating conflicts. To gain a better understanding of the contributing factors for violence, SOF canassist other agencies and local partners with collecting, monitoring, and analyzing information acrossmultiple networks to identify early signs of conflict in high-risk areas. These activities can be accomplishedthrough the host nation, international organization, or coalition of regional partners. Social media as acommunication platform provides real-time updates with changes in the political sentiment of a population,human rights violations, or economic inequalities, often overlooked before the internet. This platform can
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be used to collect evidence and hold governments or other actors accountable for their actions andundermine their repressive efforts. The information gathered and analyzed through social media can helppredict conflict and provide time for SOF partners to develop a preventive response.
Further, SOF can assist partners in developing cyber strategies to illuminate illegal cyber activities andcounter adversarial propaganda that promote conflict. These activities would include coordinatedinformation operation efforts in support of host nation, regional partners or IGO/NGOs to counteradversarial propaganda and disinformation. If necessary, SOF can assist with coordinating for offensivecyber operations to prevent or deny actors from carrying out illicit activities from high-risk areas or weakstates. Cyber operations can be used to remove adversarial websites to sabotaging their sites disruptingfinance and recruitment efforts. Looking forward, conflict prevention through the cyber domain can beseen as low risk with high returns, which doesn’t play into our adversaries’ counter-narratives if there is nophysical evidence of the initiator.
Informational Activities
A crucial component for deterring violence is the integration of Military Information Support Operations(MISO) to help prevent conflicts. As mentioned earlier, globalization and technology have drasticallychanged the information environment. Now state and non-state actors can saturate the informationenvironment to exploit underlying grievances and encourage violence. MISO should be used to assistindigenous partners to develop themes and messages that help prevent conflict and promote stability.Messages should be disseminated through all means (social media, TV, radio, print) available to reachthose high-risk populations. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan's anti-extremism radio program managedby the Jordanian Armed Forces (JAF) Director of Moral Guidance provides an example of the use ofinformation to prevent violence. JAF radio programs that promote stability can be heard all throughout thecountry 24hrs a day via the traditional radio stations, Android applications, and social media, through theofficial JAF Facebook page.
In an interview, the Director of Moral Guidance Brig. Gen. Abdullah Huneiti said, “The popularity of radiomakes it an effective tool to increase national awareness and mitigate the impact of propaganda,disinformation and destructive rumors.” The use of all communication platforms has extended their reachto disseminate positive messages in areas vulnerable to extremist ideology. This approach can bereplicated in conflict prevention efforts to build partner capacity and provide a capability to countermessaging that promotes conflict in vulnerable areas.
Overall, the use of messaging and technology to prevent conflicts must be synchronized with otherprograms that directly address the root causes that fuel violence. Examples of this are reconciliationprograms that address grievances or public apologies for crimes relating to human rights violationsimposed by another group or government. Amplifying these positive efforts can influence discontentpopulations to not support competing actors and minimize the risk of violence. In theory, if relationsbetween conflicting groups increase, it will diminish competing actors’ opportunities to exploit grievancesand improve reporting on their illicit activities.
Civil-Military Operations
In addition to messaging, it is crucial for SOF to coordinate with interagency partners, IGOs/NGOs, andthe indigenous population to gain an understanding of the underlying causes of instability. Civil Affairsforces can support these efforts by facilitating dialogue with all parties involved to ensure informationsharing and a common operating picture of all efforts. Historically, the UN or regional organizations,usually take the lead in conflict prevention. They are typically better equipped to assist with economic,developmental, and humanitarian assistance. However, most international or regional organizationsstart at the national level and require time to develop grassroots relationships. When it comes to localgrievances, NGOs have greater access to real-time information due to their close work with indigenouscommunities. According to Pamela Aall, a senior advisor to Conflict Prevention and Management at theUS Institute of Peace (USIP), “NGOs have a crucial function to perform in preventing violent conflicts fromemerging, as they are often already working with grassroots and civil society organizations withincommunities.” Thus, NGOs are usually better positioned to recognize conditions that can lead toconflicts. For this reason, it is essential for Civil Affairs forces to coordinate with these organizations togain a better understanding of the grievances that contribute to instability. Civil Affairs forces can managethe civil information gathered and support partners with developing ways to mitigate underlying causes ofinstability. The sharing of information among all actors also promotes trust and establishes a unified efforttowards conflict prevention. A unified effort to address the grievances of all parties involved is necessary
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to prevent conflicts and human suffering. Normally, this is a short-term response, as this only providestime for other organizations to implement a more long-term approach towards governance, economicdevelopment, and social reforms.
Civil Affairs forces with their cultural and regional knowledge can develop relationships with indigenousleaders to identify those moderate partners who are necessary for the success of preventative efforts.Engagements with local communities and collection of civil information can be used to validate thegrievances and needs of the populations in different areas. The cross-pollination of civil information withother organizations is important because each community will have different needs and perceptions ofissues that contribute to the instability. More importantly, Civil Affairs forces can facilitate the coordinationbetween local authorities and other organizations to provide necessary assistance in vulnerable areasthat may have been overlooked. These relationships may help create a safe and positive environmentwhich will lead to future reconciliation efforts between conflicting parties. Engaging at the grassroots levelwill also disrupt competing actors’ opportunities to exploit grievances, and provide a better understandingof the frustrations throughout these communities, which is vital in conflict prevention.
Warrior Diplomats
Confidence-building measures (CBMs) are critical components in conflict prevention to reduce anxietyand misperceptions between opposing parties. Although CBMs is often implemented at the nationallevels, SOF can contribute at the tactical level by being a neutral party who encourages cooperation andfacilitate activities between conflicting parties to prevent violence. It’s proven that having a neutral force isnecessary to deter violence and ensure security agreements or power-sharing arrangements areenforced. Recent examples are the use of neutral troops in Bosnia and Iraq (before the 2011 withdrawal),as the military presence contributed to the political and psychological role in reassuring that opposingparties would not return to violence.
The US Army Special Forces (SF) are cultural and regional experts trained in Unconventional Warfareand Foreign Internal Defense with the unique skills necessary for CBM. Compared to other elements ofspecial operations, they have the language and cultural skills required to build relationships and conductsuccessful CBM at the lowest level. CBM are sensitive and precarious missions where troops areengaged with conflicting parties, with potential misperceptions by any one side.
Confidence-building measures demand a good understanding of the culture, history, and root causes ofinstability to reduce tensions and build trust. SF activities can promote cooperation by; facilitating theexchange of information between conflicting parties; conducting joint training; and advise/assist/accompany in joint patrols to foster trust amongst their ranks. If the conditions are so tense, then SF canpromote transparency by enforcing mutual agreements and provide early warning of conflict escalation.SOF support to CBM strategies provides the groundwork for state-level security cooperation and impedesthe emergence of an insurgency that may not agree with a resolution. However, these measures require along-term commitment. As seen in Iraq from 2011, an early disengagement or withdrawal can causeturmoil leading to an interminable conflict and internecine violence.
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Figure 2: Confidence Building Measures in the Contemporary Operating Environment
The Challenges
While there are several challenges associated with the implementation of successful approaches toconflict prevention, this article illuminates these specific issues: state sovereignty, international support,capacity, required policies, and political will. Understanding these challenges will help senior leadershipdevelop policies required for the timely and effective use of SOF to prevent violence from escalating.
State sovereignty is the most difficult and controversial challenge with conflict prevention. The host nationor state must agree to an early intervention by a third party to implement an approach. This third partyrequirement is vital to the prevention of further violence and must be identified early on to ensure thenecessary resourcing and negotiations for the intervention. Therefore, convincing state leaders to acceptthird-party intervention in their internal affairs is challenging. Historically, if a host nation does consent,there is a risk for the conflicting party to perceive the support as illegitimate or for competing actors toexploit the situation through popular support and resist the intervention. Therefore to prevent violencefrom erupting it requires a well-timed and coordinated intervention strategy.
Another challenge is garnering international support necessary for conflict prevention to be successful.Conflict prevention is a long-term commitment by all parties involved, which many countries’ interests norcapacity align to take on such a burden. When a state or organization commits to early intervention, thereis a risk that their interests will conflict with US interests or vice-versa in the region. Also when aninternational partner is compelled to support, that partner may have limited capacity, forcing them towithdraw prematurely, placing pressure on contributing partners to fill the void. As mentioned earlier, along-term commitment is challenging and costly to maintain. This highlights the importance ofcomprehensive negotiations early on to seize potential agreements that take preventative action to inhibitescalation.
USSOCOM does not have the capacity to support multiple operations simultaneously. However,depending on the complexity of a mission, SOF may be augmented by conventional forces to meetspecific requirements, for example from the new Security Force Assistance Brigades that are being stoodup by the US Army. Ideally, efficiency can be gained by working closely with allies like the UnitedKingdom, Canada, and Australia special operations forces. This collaborative approach expandscoordination with a broader range of actors, from IGOs/NGOs to local militias, which is necessary forsynchronized preventive efforts. Most often, SOF should be in the lead, as conflict prevention requires theunique skills necessary to engage with indigenous populace. At the moment, SOF regularly engage localsin the hinterlands and far-flung jungles to national level government officials in developing countries.
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Controversial Counterintelligence Nominee onHold In Senate(https://freebeacon.com/national-security/controversial-counterintelligence-nominee-on-hold-in-senate/) by Bill Gertz -Washington Free Beacon
US Air Power: The Imperative ForModernization(https://breakingdefense.com/2019/03/us-air-power-the-imperative-for-modernization-buy-the-f-35/) by Lani Kass - Breaking Defense
Russia Claims Total Military Superiority in theArctic(https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/03/18/russia_claims_total_military_superiority_in_the_arctic_114264.html)by Pavel Felgenhauer - Eurasia Daily Monitor
Science Fiction Short Stories and the Strategist
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The final challenge to conflict prevention is the lack of political will to invest in preventive efforts,especially in countries most vulnerable to conflict but have no strategic value. The reality is that decisionsare influenced by cost to benefit analyses and policymakers determining if support aligns with nationalinterests. Another reason is the US may not want to take on a unilateral operation when other members ofan international organization, for example, the United Nations, veto a resolution. Lastly, when the hostnation is not willing to support such measures, as mentioned earlier, the US may not apply diplomaticpressure to impose its will, as demonstrated with the withdrawal in 2011 from Iraq.
Conclusion
The accelerated rate of globalization combined with technological advances can be beneficial inidentifying early stages of conflict before it escalates into violence. SOF have a broad range of capabilitiesto aid in conflict prevention. These measures combined with other military and civilian agencies can setconditions for long-term peace and stability. Moreover, it would be in support of other organizations’initiatives to improve governance and socio-economic grievances by effectively preventing conflict fromoccurring. Responding to conflict once violence has erupted is more expensive and puts forces at agreater risk. Identifying global hotspots and providing intervention to reduce violence is cost-effective inthe long term, will reduce the threat for mass atrocities from occurring, and mitigate the risk of anyspillover into neighboring countries.
In addition to being cost-effective, this approach provides SOF a persistent presence with both local andinternational troops for an extended period. Advising and assisting peacekeeping forces or indigenoussecurity forces in prevention efforts improves SOF language and cultural skills, preparing them further forother special warfare activities. SOF can use social media to monitor and empower indigenous partners tocounter messages and disinformation that instigate violence. They can partner with international and localpartners to gather information to gain a granular understanding of what leads to conflict and develop aplan to address those underlying grievances. In sum, for conflict prevention to be successful, it takes anintegrated approach with international and regional partners to address social, political, and economicgrievances, reducing the effects of regional instability.
End Notes
1. Bercovitch & Jackson (2012) Conflict Resolution in the Twenty-First Century: Principle, Methods, andApproaches, Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press 2012
2. The Curve of Conflict was introduced by and adapted from Michael S. Lund, who was a 2011-2012USIP Senior Fellow.
“Conflict has its own dynamic, and it tends to escalate and recede over time. The curve of conflict helpsus to visualize how conflicts typically evolve over time and how different phases of conflict relate to oneanother. It is one way in which we can deconstruct the dynamic of conflict and seek to understand it andhandle it more effectively.”
“Along the curve, we can identify discrete stages where action can be taken to prevent, manage, orresolve conflict, using peacebuilding tools.”
“Understanding where a conflict falls in the cycle is essential to developing effective strategies for theseinterventions. It is also critical to determining the best timing of those strategies as part of the process ofpeacebuilding.”
5. Bercovitch & Jackson (2012) Conflict Resolution in the Twenty-First Century: Principle, Methods, andApproaches, Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press 2012
6. Carment & Schnabel (2003) Introduction-Conflict Prevention: A Concept in Search of a Policy, Tokyo:UN University Press 2003
15
(https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/03/18/science_fiction_short_stories_and_the_strategist_114267.html)by Gregory Miller - The Strategy Bridge
Peace in Afghanistan: The Tumultuous RoadAhead(https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/03/18/peace_in_afghanistan_the_tumultuous_road_ahead_114269.html)by Archana Atmakuri and Roshni Kapur - TheInterpreter
Joint Chiefs Chairman Denies Report that US isPlanning to Keep 1K Troops in Syria(https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/434479-joint-chiefs-chairman-denies-accuracy-of-report-us-is-planning-to-keep-1k-troops-in) by Chris Mills Rodrigo - The Hill
Sources: India, Pakistan Threatened toUnleash Missiles(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-crisis-insight-idUSKCN1QY03T)Sanjeev Miglani and Drazen Jorgic - Reuters
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Assad A. Raza (/index.php/author/assad-raza-0)Major Assad Raza is an Active Duty Civil Affairs Officer in the United States Army currently serving in the96th Civil Affairs Battalion (Special Operations) (Airborne). He holds a B.A. in Psychology from TheUniversity of Tampa, a M.A. in Diplomacy w/concentration in International Conflict Management fromNorwich University, and is a graduate of The Western Hemisphere Institute for Security CooperationCommand and General Staff Officer Course at Fort Benning, Georgia.
7. Official Jordan Armed Forces Facebook Page, https://www.facebook.com/ArmedForcesJO/(https://www.facebook.com/ArmedForcesJO/)
8. Lt. Col. Elena O'Bryan and Staff Sgt. Joseph VonNida (2016) Colorado National Guard observespartner Jordan's anti-extremism radio broadcast programs.https://www.army.mil/article/173915/colorado_national_guard_observes_partner_jordans_anti_extremism_radio_broadcast_programs(https://www.army.mil/article/173915/colorado_national_guard_observes_partner_jordans_anti_extremism_radio_broadcast_programs)
9. The Gaurdian (2014) Special Report: Truth, Justice and Reconciliation: An examination of howcountries around the world affected by civil war or internal conflict have approached justice.
10. Bercovitch & Jackson, Conflict Resolution in the Twenty-First Century, 96.
11. Aall, Pamela (2001) What do NGOs Bring to Peacemaking? In the book Turbulent Peace: TheChallenges of Managing International Conflict, Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace.
12. Bercovitch & Jackson, Conflict Resolution in the Twenty-First Century, 94.
13. Pollack, Kenneth (2016) Fight or Flight: America’s Choice in the Middle East, Foreign Affairs, Vol 95, #2 March/April 2016
14. Bazin, Aaron, LTC (2014) Trust: A Decisive Point in COIN Operations, Infantry Magazine Jan-Mar2014.
15. Bercovitch & Jackson, Conflict Resolution in the Twenty-First Century, 99.
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