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Sport Obermeyer
1
Sport Obermeyers Time Line and Speculative versus Reactive Production"NOW" Initial Forecast Las Vegas Revised Forecast 27 Months
9 months Feb Oct 1992 1992 Design of 1993-94 Line.
5 months Nov Mar 1992 1993
5 months April Aug 1993 1993
Sept 1993
Oct 1993
Nov 1993
"Speculative" Productionof 1993-94 Line
"Reactive" Productionof 1993-94 Line
8 months Dec Jan 1993 1994 Selling of
Feb 1994
Mar 1994
Apr 1994
1993-94 Line (peak selling in Dec & Jan)
In Feb 1993, start design of 1994-95 line.
In Feb 1994, start design of 1995-96 line.
Speculative Production
Reactive Production
2
Speculative Production: Overstock versus Stockout?Assume that Sport Obermeyer:is in the Speculative Production phase, forecasts that demand (D) for the Andy parka has a Normal Probability Distribution with a mean of 1000 and a standard deviation of 250, and
has decided that the Andy parkas Speculative Production should be Q=750.Pr{Stockout}=Pr{D>Q} =0.841
Pr{Overstock}=Pr{D