Spotlight on Migration:causes, consequences and what the AU can do

Mehari Taddele Maru 2 July 2015

IPSS-AAU Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Talking Points

• Conceptualization and AU and IGAD policies: Migration, Displacement and Mobility

• What are the determinants, frequency, nature and trends of migration in and from Africa?

• The Mega Trends and Migration in Africa • What are the challenges, concerns and opportunities related to migration in and

from Africa?• How is (should) migration (be) governed in Africa?

Conceptual Issues: State, Sovereignty, Human Security

• State and Sovereignty• Reconceptualization of Sovereignty as Responsibility• Responsibility:

– Duty to Respect, Protect and Fulfill – both Delivery and Democracy

• Human Security: hard and soft security

Human Insecurity in continuum: Causes, Accelerators and Triggers

Soft Insecurity

-Extreme Events/Shocks -Vulnerabilities -Extreme Poverty-Social Injustice -Discrimination-Grievances -Intolerance

Hard Insecurity- Localized conflicts -Civil wars-International wars-Arms proliferations -Violence and Crimes -Terrorism and Violent Extremism

Migration Conceptualized

Migration

DisplacementForced

IDPsInternal

RefugeesExternal

MobilityVoluntary

Legal-GoodIntegrative

Illegal-Bad4Ps

Causes of displacement

Causes and Consequences of Migration

Migration stressors: Pull factors-mobility or push factors-displacementCause and Consequence of Migration on Human SecurityHuman RightsPublic HealthEnvironmentRemittancesBrain Drain Conflict

Ultimate Aim of AU Policies

Voluntary

Not forced—consent

Travel for Trade, Education, Tourism, Employment

Mega Trends-Africa Futures

In the next 30 years…1. High Population growth: 2 billion, 55% below 20 years-West and East 2. Annual increase in connectivity--2% of Africans 3. Army of unemployed youth– Also highly connected, conversant, mobile

and vocal 4. Urbanized population of 54% --- today’s figure of 38%5. Mega cities—difficult to govern and without service 6. Income gap and associated social unrest

7. Aspiration and demand for development and legitimacy 8. 94% live in improved governance 9. Continent’s GDP---USD 8.6 trillion--the current USD 1.7 trillion10. Emerging middle class---313 million--Annual increase of 10 million

Trends: dichotomy of crises and transformation

Increase in internal displacement: increase in localized conflicts and AIF• Increase in mobility: poorest nearest, mobile elite, brain drain and gain • Increase in Security Nexus: climate change, population, water, food,

energy security• Increase in infrastructural and other developments, extractive industries • Increased cross-border trade• Increase in local job protection, restrictive migration policies• Increase in xenophobic, and Afrophobia attacks: all prone, some more

prone, responsive governance critical, system failure to protect migrants• Divergent interests and contradictory end states: CoO and CoD, integration and

control

Recommendations

• Shift of Mission: From Norm-Setting to Norm-Implementation– National Consultative Conferences: the highest CoO, CoD and CoT

• Building the Four Capabilities: predictive, preventive, responsive and adaptive capabilities

• Shift of Focus: From Intervention to Prevention• Bridging the Gap: Early Warning and Early Response• Low Hanging Fruits: Informal Economy –80%---High Impact, High Return

Reasons for Lack of Comprehensive Approach

Fundamental error in viewing migration: 1. as a threat, as a problem2. as consequence of extreme poverty—the very poor doe not move far, reduce

poverty, reduce migration 3. as displacement only, not as mobility, thus not as opportunity4. divided mandate at national level5. Divergent interests and contradictory end states: CoO and CoD, integration and

control

TOWARDS COMPREHENSIVE NMP and NMA

Current Status Ad hocFragmented

Means CapabilitiesPolicyLegislative Institutional Financial Collaborative

Desired StatusEffective Governance of Migration Reduced displacement Enhanced Mobility

Infrastructural Development Driven Integration

USD 7 billion• 10 corridors• 3 ports • 2 One Stop Border Posts• 2 railway projects at advanced • 1 early stage• 18 road studies• 2 railway project studies

African Economies: Persistent Extreme (<$1.25) Poverty will decline sharply

A thread of the report story: Persistent challenges

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mill

ion p

eople

Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048

Central Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa

Increase in Economic Growth and Increase in Mobility

20152016

20172018

20192020

20212022

20232024

20252026

20272028

20292030

20312032

20332034

20350

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

CentralEast/HornNorthernSouthernSouthern-SAWestern

African Regional Challenge: Intraregional Trade and Mobility

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Lions on the Move: 25

Critical Challenges for the future Transformation outpacing crisis? or Crisis outpacing Reform?

Transformation Crisis

Will depend on four major aspects of governance

Human Security

Capable State

Delivery

Inclusivity

Security

Legitimacy