Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East?

Dr. Bessma MomaniUniversity of Western Ontariobmomani@uwo.ca

Image: www.caglecartoons.com

Lecture Outline:

• What, where is the Middle East?

• What encourages democratization?

• Will there be democracy or dim-ocracy in the ME?

• Why in the ME, the US is not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’?

Middle East

• Geographic area• Not cultural,

ethnic, linguistic, or religious

• Not all Arab countries

The Arab World…(based on Arab League Membership)

Middle East Political LandscapeCountry Indicators for Foreign Policy

Country

Index 2000

Democracy Civil,

Political Rights

Press Freedom

Corruption

Jordan 7 6 6 4

Egypt 8 8 7 7

Saudi Arabia

9 9 9 n/a

Kuwait 8 6 5 n/a

Turkey 3 6 6 5

Iraq 9 9 9 n/a

Algeria 7 8 8 n/a

Morocco 8 5 6 5

Columbia 3 6 6 7Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source: http:// www.carleton.ca/cifp/

Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes

• There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else

• Repression, exclusion of political participation

• ‘insular’/resist globaliz’n• Large youth population• →Hopelessness, extremism

What encourages democratization?

April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al-Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram

Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization…

• National unity– ‘togetherness’

• Political leadership-- personalities

• Historical legacy-- colonialism

• Political culture– people view power

• Ethnic harmony-- cooperation

• Strong political parties-- brokerage

• Political institutions—legisl; judiciary

• Socioeconomic development– middle class

• Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie

• National security– no external threat

Map of Saudi Arabia

• International organizations– UN declaration of human rights

– International law; ICC

• State pressure– EU; foreign aid

• Economic Factors– MNCs, entrepreneurs

– Globalization

• Waves of democracy– Huntington: “snowballing”

External Factors thatEncourage Democratization…

George W. Bush on November 6th 2003 at the National Endowment for Democracy

“As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”

What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East?

Domino Democratization in the Middle East

Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy

US administrationprofesses

Skeptics

Democracy…a domino effect?

• Latin America• Eastern Europe • Asia • Domino-effect can be a trigger,

if internal conditions are favorable…

• Middle East/ Arab world next?• See: Democratic Mirage in the

Middle East www.ceip.org

Middle Easterners want democracy…

• Strong appetite for democracy

• Ex. of struggles for democracy:

• Early 1980s- Turkey shifted to democracy; military watchdog

• 1989, Jordan- Parliamentary elections– 2002 US-FTA

• Elections in Bahrain, Morocco– US Free trade candidates

• Iran, the youth, reformers– vs. Ayatollahs, religious establishment

http://people-press.org/

Push factors for political liberalization…

of satellite, open media

– Expose corruption

– ‘neighborhood effect’

• Ex. Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya

– Challenges state-owned media

– But, In Iraq, both banned for unfavorable coverage of US occupation

• Spread of Internet

– Organizing movements

– Criticize government

– Outlet for banned media

A classified Feb. 26, 2003, State Department report by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research entitled:

Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes

"even if some version of democracy took root ... anti-American sentiment is so pervasive that Iraqi elections in the short term could lead to the rise of Islamic-controlled governments hostile to the United States."

Reported by Greg Miller at www.latimes.org

Or…Dim-ocracy…

• Igniting the ‘Arab streets’– Populist, unorganized, anti-

government demonstrations

• → Civil war in each state?• ↑ hatred and terror on US

interests– Backlash

• Rise of Islamists: critical of their governments and the US

For the US: Islamic Governments mean→ dim-ocracy?

• Popular Islamist movements /parties– Conservative, anti-liberal

values, some anti-US

• Would the US want to see Islamist-controlled governments– ? Eliminate democracy

• Extreme scenario is that these parties create Islamic states– Ex. 1979 Iran

Algeria: Déjà vu….

• 1992: Islamist party (FIS) won elections– Military backed-regime cancelled

elections

• Algeria civil war: – 130,000 killed in the past 10 years – State of emergency, human rights

violations

• taught other Islamists to go underground and to not trust region's secular elites– Suppressed in Algeria, Tunisia,

Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia

• Clinton administration: authoritarian regimes better than Islamist regimes

Case in point: Egypt

• US foreign aid to Egypt: over US $2 B

• b/c US fear ‘Algerian scenario’

• Preferable to keep the status quo

• With US approval, the Egyptian government represses and prevents democratic movements…

How the Egyptian government prevents/represses democratization….

• Media censorship– No mention of any opposition

party allowed on state TV in 1995

• Restricting fundraising of political parties

• Banning religious parties

• All unions are gov’t controlled

• State employees: intellectuals, journalists

• Outlaws demonstrations, indefinite detentions (50,000 political prisoners)

Problem: US not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’ in the ME

Four general reasons…1. Negative view of US

foreign policy2. Iraqi occupation/

democratization going poorly

3. The oil connection4. Bush’s post 9-11 evil vs.

good rhetoric

1) Perception of US Foreign Policy

Image and table: http://people-press.org/

2) Iraqi occupation going poorly

• Insecurity/ Anarchy

• Civilian deaths

• Political round-up– de-Baathification

• Unemployment (<50%)

• Electrical Blackouts– Also water & fuel

2) Iraqi democracy …really?• US plans for ‘Iraqi sovereignty’

• CPA appoint 18 organizing committees that will then select delegates

• These delegate then select the representatives of the legislative.

• The representatives have an internal vote to elect ministers and an executive.

• BUT…Shia (60%)- Al-Sistani– want direct elections immediately

3) Oil…the motive of the US invasion of Iraq?

• WMD?• None of the hijackers

from Iraq; No connection to 9-11

• Iraq not a hotbed for religious extremism

• ►Get Iraqi oil to break OPEC strength– Hijackers from Saudi

Arabia

3) The OIL connection

• Iraqi facilities need to be rehabilitated

• US emphasizing US contracts

• Bush admin. too connected to oil– Ex. VP Cheney’s– KBR awarded

contracts.

4) US reference to moral/ religious rhetoric post 9-11…

The ME hears the Bush administration’s…

• Axis of evil• Good vs. evil• Anti-Islam comments

– by General Boykin

– Repeated in Arab media

Final thoughts…

• It is unclear whether external involvement such as the American occupation of Iraq will be enough to spark democracy in the ME

• Internal factors do not appear conducive, especially in Iraq

• The US not deemed to be an honest broker in the ME, and there may be increased backlash as a result

• Finally, if true democracy spread throughout the ME and if Islamist parties predictably came to power…what would this mean to US interests in the region.

Video…

…this video is available for viewing online for free, log on to :

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/truth/