Spring 2018 MASTER...Spring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference Friday, March 16, 2018 AGENDA 2:00...

National Fuel Gas Distribution CorporationSpring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference

Friday, March 16, 2018

AGENDA

2:00 pm Welcome and Introduction Dave Wolford

2:05 pm Operational Update Dave Wolford

2:20 pm Capacity Update Bob Michalski

2:30 pm Rates & Regulatory Update Mike Novak

o Federal Regulatory Updateo NY Regulatory Updateo PA Regulatory Update

2:50 pm General Discussion All

3:00 pm Closing Dave Wolford

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation

Spring 2018 Marketer/Supplier Teleconference

Operational Update

Presentation by: Dave Wolford

March 16, 2018

NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer

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Transportation Customers

STAND-ALONE CUSTOMERS

AGGREGATION CUSTOMERS

TOTAL NFGDC 126,087

MONTHLY (MMT) –

New York 1

Pennsylvania 0

DAILY (DMT) –

New York 0

Pennsylvania 79

TOTAL 80

New York (STBA) 95,165

New York (DMT) 35

Pennsylvania (MMNGS) 3,300

Pennsylvania (SATS) 27,507

TOTAL 126,007


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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000M

ar-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

l-17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

r-1

8

Nu

mb

er

of

Cu

sto

mers

National Fuel Gas DistributionNY STBA Enrollment

Residential

Non-Residential

Total


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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000M

ar-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

l-17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

r-1

8

Nu

mb

er

of

Cu

sto

mers

National Fuel Gas DistributionPA SATS Enrollment

Residential

Non-Residential

Total


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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000M

ar-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

l-17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

r-1

8

Nu

mb

er

of

Cu

sto

mers

National Fuel Gas DistributionPA MMNGS Enrollment

TotalResidentialNon-Residential


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80.3

91.2

99.9

94.6 89.9

91.9

41.6

46.9 51.9

49.4 47.5 46.8

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

BC

FNEW YORK

12 Month Totals(Through December 2017) Throughput Transported


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39.5

45.2

49.9

46.3 44.4

45.5

21.3

25.3

28.3 26.0 25.3

26.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

BC

FPENNSYLVANIA12 Month Totals

(Through December 2017) Throughput Transported


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119.7

132.2

151.7 144.9

129.4

134.7

62.5

70.1

81.1 77.1

70.7 72.1

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

BC

FNFGDC YEARLY DELIVERIES

12 Month Totals(Through December 2017) Throughput Transported


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51.8% 51.4% 52.0% 52.2% 52.9%51.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

NYTRANSPORTATION PERCENTAGE

OF 12 MONTH DELIVERIES


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53.9%56.1% 56.7% 56.1% 56.9% 57.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


PATRANSPORTATION PERCENTAGE



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52.2% 53.0% 53.4% 53.2%54.7% 53.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


NFGDC TRANSPORTATION PERCENTAGE



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Marketer/Supplier Operations Support• NFGDC provides a full range of business tools and support services:

– NFGDC Website:

http://www.nationalfuelgas.com/marketers/default.aspx

– Operating Procedures Manuals:

• GTOP, TSS, TSS Reports, Aggregator, Market Pool, Production Pool

– Transportation Scheduling System – TSS

– Training

– Help Desks

• Scheduling: (716)-857-7232

• Hours: 7:30 am – 5:00 pm on business days

• email: [email protected]

• Billing: (716)-857-7432

• Hours: 8:00 am – 4:30 pm on business days

• email: [email protected]

– After Hours Scheduling Support: (716)-857-7232


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New York & Pennsylvania Operations

• Meet daily delivery requirements (DDQs) to serve

market

• Manage storage inventories

– Required end of month storage inventory percentages

are minimums, not targets

• Deliver upstream supplies at primary firm or acceptable

alternate delivery points

• Customer usage and local production estimates need to

be as accurate as possible


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New York & Pennsylvania Operations

• Daily Delivery Quantities (DDQs)

– DDQs are customer usage estimates based on usage history,

weather forecasts, actual measurement

• Production Daily Quantities (PDQs)

– PDQs are estimates of local production based on production

volume history

• Market Pool and Production Pool operators are

responsible for monitoring actual flowing volumes

and adjusting DDQs and PDQs via TSS


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Pipeline Critical Notices are Important

• NFGDC reminds ESCO’s to consider their business and regularly review the appropriate pipeline notices.– Subscribe to receive emails of critical notices from each pipeline

that they operate on.

– Review & assess potential impacts on their business

– Contact the appropriate pipeline for notice clarification

– Contact NFGDC for assistance

• To receive critical notice emails directly from:– NFG Supply- Email request to [email protected] with

“Critical Notice” as the subject.

– TGP- Update DART user setting in “Business Preferences” to receive email notifications.


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Pennsylvania DMT Operations

• REMINDER: National Fuel provides PA DMT pool operators, and requesting

customers, with official notification of instances of missing or incomplete

customer telemetered readings via the daily Customer Transportation

Statements (CTS).

– The following statement appears at the bottom of each CTS:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE:WHEN 'USAGE EST.' IS SHOWN UNDER THE STMT BASIS COLUMN ON THIS REPORT, IT IS THE MARKET

POOL OPERATOR'S RESPONSIBILITY TO OBTAIN A 10:00 A.M. READ DIRECTLY FROM THE CUSTOMER. THIS

READ SHOULD BE E-MAILED TO [email protected]. THIS IS A PA GTOP REQUIREMENT.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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SYSTEM MAINTENANCE ORDERS

* TO MAINTAIN SYSTEM OPERATIONAL INTEGRITY *

SYSTEM ALERT

OFO

UNAUTHORIZED OVERRUN

CURTAILMENT


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Operational Update

Winter 2017 – 2018(Gas days inclusive)

• System Alerts – 2 Cold Weather

• December 23 – January 7

• January 13-16

– 5 DDQ Averaging

• November 4-6, 23-27

• December 22-26

• January 6-8

• February 17-20

• OFOs– 2 Under-delivery

• January 1 (NY Only) (Voluntary Curtailment)

• January 5-6


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

National Fuel Heating Degree Days (HDD)

Buffalo, NY - 2017-2018

Actual HDD 12 AM - 12 PM Normal HDD (NOAA 1981-2010) Forecast Accuweather HDD Mar 13 - Mar 31

Actual HDD

November 2017 2.6% CTN

December 2017 12.8% CTN

January 2018 0.9% CTN

February 2018 15.3% WTN

March 2018 (est.) 7.8% CTN

Winter HDD through 3-12-18

0.3% CTN

Peak Delivery Day

January 5th (Fri)

63 HDD


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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar


Cumulative Buffalo, NY - 2017-2018

Actual HDD Winter 2017-18 Normal HDD (NOAA 1981-2010)

Forecast HDD Winter 2017-18 (Accuweather) Actual HDD Winter 2013-14 (Coldest in 74 Years)

Actual HDD Winter 2011-12 (Warmest in 74 Years)

0.3% Colder through 3/12/18


18.2% Warmer through 3/12/12*

* The normals used for Winter 2011-12 are based off of NOAA 1971-2000 data.

Peak Delivery Day

January 5th (Fri)

58 HDD


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar


Erie, PA - 2017-2018

Actual HDD 12 AM - 12 PM Normal HDD (NOAA 1981-2010) Forecasted Accuweather HDD Mar 13 - Mar 31

Winter HDD through 3-12-18

0.4% CTN

Actual HDD

November 2017 2.0% CTN

December 2017 11.6% CTN

January 2018 3.0 % CTN

February 2018 17.5% WTN

March 2018 (est.) 10.3% CTN


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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar


Cumulative Erie, PA - 2017-2018

Actual HDD Winter 2017-18 Normal HDD (NOAA 1981-2010)

Forecast HDD Winter 2017-18 (Accuweather) Actual HDD Winter 2013-14 (4th Coldest in 64 Years)

Actual HDD Winter 2011-12 (Warmest in 64 Years)



18.9% Warmer through 3/12/12*

* The normals used for Winter 2011-12 are based off of NOAA 1971-2000 data.

Questions?


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Capacity Update

Presentation by: Bob Michalski

March 16, 2018


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Discussion Topics

New York

Supplier Transportation Balancing and Aggregation (STBA)

• Mandatory Upstream Transmission Capacity (MUTC)

• Intermediate NFGSC ESS Capacity

Pennsylvania

Small Aggregation Transportation Supplier (SATS)

• Released Transmission Capacity (RTC)

• Intermediate NFGSC ESS Capacity

2NFGDC Spring 2018 Marketer

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NY STBA Capacity

Serves Requirements for up to 62 HDD

67% MUTC – Change Effective April 2018

Released at Weighted Average Cost of Capacity (WACOC)

• 30% NFGSC ESS, released at maximum rate

• 70% Upstream Pipeline Capacity, released at a rate, that blended

with the ESS component, achieves the WACOC rate:

– Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) Zone 4 to Rose Lake

– Dominion Energy Transmission, Inc. (DETI) – North Point to Ellisburg

33% Intermediate ESS Capacity

Released at maximum rate


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4

MUTC Upstream Capacity Releases

Change effective April 2018:

Release TGP Z4-Z4 path up to 34,000 Dth/day until

fully allocated. If requirement exceeds 34,000

Dth/day, then a proportional mix of both contracts will

be released instead:

• TGP Z4-Z4 – 34,000 Dth/day – 71%

• DETI North Point to Ellisburg - 14,000 Dth/day – 29%


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NY STBA Capacity

5

Enduser

NFGDC

Local

Production

ESS

Capacity

30%

ESS

Capacity

70%

Pipeline

Capacity

NFGSC EFT CapacityNFGDC

transportation

MUTC: 67% Intermediate

Capacity: 33%


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NY MUTC WACOC & Release Rates

Date WACOC WACOC Change

Since Apr 2012

ESS Max

Rate/Dth

TGP Release

Rate/Dth

Apr 2012 $10.8359 - $4.1649 $11.9219

Apr 2013 $10.5102 (3%) $4.4947 $11.4895

Apr 2014 $9.8099 (10%) $4.4817 $10.6773

Apr 2015 $9.4025 (13%) $4.4817 $10.2709

Apr 2016 $10.045 (7%) $4.3924 $11.0425

Apr 2017 $9.4851 (12%) $4.3032 $10.3996

Apr 2018* $8.6190 (20%) $4.4765** $10.3944**

* Pro-forma

** May 2017, ESS increased from 15% to 30%, TGP reduced from 85% to 70%


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PA SATS Capacity

Serves Requirements for up to 62 HDD

Capacity mix – Change Effective August 2018:

• 46% RTC - TGP released at WACOC

• 54% Intermediate ESS released at max rate


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PA SATS Capacity

8

86% 14%

TGP ESS

Capacity Capacity

Enduser

54%

ESS

Capacity

46%

TGP

Capacity

NFGSC EFT Capacity NFGDC Capacity


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PA SATS TGP Release Rate

Date TGP Release Rate/Dth* Change

Aug 2012 $14.9823 -

Aug 2013 $13.8762 (7%)

Aug 2014 $11.7962 (21%)

Aug 2015 $10.1388 (32%)

Aug 2016 $9.6257 (36%)

Aug 2017 $9.5746 (36%)

Aug 2018** $9.5548 (36%)

* PA TGP Release Rate = PA WACOC Rate.

** 1307(f) Compliance Rate/Dth


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Questions?


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1

Rates & Regulatory Update

Presentation by: Michael Novak

March 16, 2018


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National FuelRates & Regulatory Update

Federal Update


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Pipeline Rate Events

• Several pipelines have filed various tracker filings with changes to become effective 4/1/2018; most of these deal with fuel retention or other routine surcharges.

• RP18-298 et al. – Columbia CCRM Tracker

– In addition to CCRM costs, Columbia’s filing included the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).

• RP18-415 - Industry Petition for Initiation of Show Cause Proceedings Directed To Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines and Storage Companies.

• RM18-11 - Interstate and Intrastate Natural Gas Pipelines; Rate Changes Relating to Federal Income Tax Rate

• RP18-449 – NFGSC Reorganization of Appalachian Pooling Zones.

• PR18-29 – NFGDC Application to Amend FERC Order 63 Rates effective 2/12/2018.

Rates & Regulatory UpdatePennsylvania Update

2018 Annual 1307(f) filing

• Status Update– Exhibits were filed January 2018.– Tariff and Testimony were filed February 2018.– No major non-gas cost tariff initiatives are being bundled with 1307F filing.

• Filing Highlights – proposed rate* changes:– MMT from $0.2600 to $0.2500– SATC from $0. 2774 to $0.2379– PSB from $1.1190 to $1.1571– SB from $0. 5334 to $0.5544– DTR [Oct. $0.01 to $0.00, Nov. $0.48 to $0.36, Dec $0.75 to $0.60, Jan $0.59 to $0.49 & Feb $0.49 to $0.24]

– RTC from $9. 5989/Dth to $9. 5548/Dth (weighted avg. demand cost of upstream capacity)

• Implementation to be effective August 1, 2018

* Relative to currently effective rates. All rates $/mcf except as noted.


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Pennsylvania GTOP

– GTOP Version 2.80 was filed on 3/1/2018

• Revisions to implement updated procedures providing producers with the ability to

enter displacement meter index readings online through a secure web site upon

execution of a System Administrator Security Process Agency Agreement.

• Addition of the Standard Form Agreement for the System Administrator Security

Process Agency Agreement to the GTOP appendices.

• Check General Producer & Supplier Postings web page:

https://nationalfuelgas.com/marketers/ProducerSupplierPostings/ProducerSupplier

Postings.aspx for updates on implementation schedule and instruction.

– The next GTOP filing is planned for late July 2018.• Revisions reflecting implementation of 2018 1307(f), e.g. Upstream Capacity Cost

Analysis & Capacity Allocation example.

No Distribution-initiated tariff changes affecting SATS or MMNGS services are anticipated, however…


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Natural Gas Retail Markets Investigation (RMI)


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Capacity Assignment/

Use of Storage

System Balancing,

Tolerances and Penalties

Access to Local

Production

Seamless Moves &

Instant ConnectsAccelerated Switching

Creditworthiness

Requirements

Standard Offer ProgramAccount Number Lookup

MechanismsLow Income Shopping

Customer Education Migration RidersPurchase of Receivables

Programs

Disclosure Statements Electronic Data Protocols Joint NGDC – NGS Bill


L-2016-2577413 – Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking - Rulemaking to Amend

the Provisions of 52 Pa. Code, Chapter 59 Regulations Regarding Standards For

Changing a Customer’s Natural Gas Supplier (“Accelerated Switching ANOPR”) .

– The ANOPR, issued on 12/23/2016, proposes an alignment of gas switching

rules with “Accelerated Switching” rules applicable to the retail electric

market, i.e. 3 business-day switching.

– Accelerated Switching works in the retail electric market where utilities have

Advanced Metering Infrastructure (“AMI”). Based upon comparable costs at

other gas utilities, the cost for Distribution to implement accelerated switching

could be in excess of $40 million, primarily for AMI implementation.

– In its comments filed on 2/21/2017, the Company expressed its opposition to

the ANOPR proposal and proposed alternate approaches.

– The PUC sought and received additional comment on the Accelerated

Switching ANOPR during June 2017.


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L-2017-2619223 – Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to solicit comments

about amending/adding to regulations addressing the release, assignment and

transfer of capacity among Natural Gas Distribution Companies and Natural Gas

Suppliers (“NGDC Business Practices ANOPR”).

• Comment is sought upon four Commission proposals:

1. Uniform Capacity Costs For All Customers

– Capacity released to NGSs at zero rate with cost recovery from customers via a new

delivery charge

2. Capacity Assignment From All Assets

– Virtual Storage

3. Daily Imbalance Trading

– Daily post-nomination trading of city gate imbalances

4. Penalty Structure During Non-peak Times

– Lower floor rate for city gate imbalances April - October


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L-2017-2619223 – NGDC Business Practices ANOPR cont.

• While it is concerned that many of these proposals would degrade its

current service offerings, Distribution believes the NGDC Business Practices

ANOPR provides an opportunity to make adjustments to capacity release

programs and provide for additional use of market price oriented

imbalance resolution.

– Distribution believes that any capacity changes need to reflect the assets

available to the system.

– Imbalance resolution changes to incorporate additional use of market pricing

should preserve the “system reliability intent” of the current resolution

methodologies.


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Docket Nos. L-2016-2577413 and L-2017-2619223

Natural Gas Technical Conference scheduled for March 29, 2018 in Harrisburg

- 9:00 am – Noon in the Keystone Building - Hearing Room One.

If any suppliers have questions about the conference, please contact the

Office of Competitive Market Oversight: [email protected]

– Director of the Office of Competitive Market Oversight Daniel

Mumford at [email protected] or (717) 783-1957

– Deputy Director of the Office of Competitive Market Oversight and

Assistant Counsel with the Law Bureau Kriss Brown at

[email protected] or (717) 787-4518

– Nathan Paul, Bureau of Audits at [email protected] or (717) 214-8249


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Rates & Regulatory UpdateNew York Update

Case 12-M-0476 - Proceeding on Motion of the Commission to

Assess Certain Aspects of the Residential and Small Non-

Residential Retail Energy Markets in New York State

12/15/2016 - PSC issues Order Adopting a Prohibition on Service to

Low-Income Customers by Energy Service Companies (“LI Prohibition”)

• Utilities communicate to ESCOs serving Assistance Program Participant (APP)

customers which accounts they are no longer eligible to serve;– J2 web-files contain lists of “ineligible customers”.

• ESCOs, unless they’ve obtained a waiver to serve low income customers

under a Guaranteed Savings Product, are required to de-enroll any APP

customer accounts identified by the utilities when existing contracts with

such customers expire;

• ESCOs should continuously monitor web site for updates to J2 web-files;– APP customer counts can increase as HEAP awards are granted.


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Case 12-M-0476 – LI Prohibition Order Implementation

• Implementation Bulletins are posted on Distribution’s web page at:

http://nationalfuelgas.com/marketers/Case12-M-0476/default.aspx


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Case 15-M-0127 - In the Matter of Eligibility Criteria for Energy Services Companies

2/23/2016 - PSC issues Order Resetting Retail Energy Markets and Establishing Further Process (“Reset Order”);

• For gas customers with consumption less than 750 Mcf/year, the order extended the general provisions set forth in 12-M-0476 for APP Customers to all mass-market (residential and small non-residential) customers.

12/2/2016 – PSC issues Notice of Evidentiary and Collaborative Tracks and Deadline for Initial Testimony and Exhibits.

1/19/2018 – ALJ issues Ruling on Schedule and Procedure.

• Testimony and Rebuttal have been provided and Hearings have concluded.

• March 30, 2018 Initial Briefs Due

• April 30, 2018 Reply Briefs Due


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New York GTOP

• GTOP Version 2.80 was filed on 2/15/2018– Updates to capacity paths available and operating provisions associated with the

Company's Mandatory Upstream Transmission Capacity ("MUTC") program.– Revisions to implement updated procedures providing producers with ability to

enter displacement meter index readings online through a secure web site upon execution of a System Administrator Security Process Agency Agreement

– Addition of the Standard Form Agreement for the System Administrator Security Process Agency Agreement to the GTOP appendices.

– Check General Producer & Supplier Postings web page: https://nationalfuelgas.com/marketers/ProducerSupplierPostings/ProducerSupplierPostings.aspx

for updates on implementation schedule and instruction.

• The next GTOP filing is planned for later this year.– Addition of provisions/agreement regarding Renewable Natural Gas (RNG).

Otherwise, no Distribution-initiated tariff changes affecting STBA service are

anticipated, however….


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Rates & Regulatory UpdateOFO Update

January 2018 National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation OFOs

• On 1/1/2018, Distribution (NY) issued an Operational Flow Order (OFO) in

response to National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation’s Critical Notice declaring

a force majeure event related to the Emergency Shutdown Event at its

Ellisburg Station.

• On 1/5-6/2018, Distribution (NY & PA) issued an Underdelivery OFO in

response to forecasted colder than normal weather.

• Invoices to ESCOs containing non-performance penalties were issued on

March 6, 2018.


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Distribution thanks Suppliers that undertook actions to

satisfy their delivery obligations during the 1/1/2018 event.

This contributed to maintaining overall system reliability.

Most importantly, no customers lost service.


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Questions?

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