SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

Annual Conference of the Society of Risk Analysis

Ljubljana, 2006

Annual Conference of the SRA

Can Public Participation help at all to reduce Natural Hazard Risks?

C.D. Gamper

alpS Centre for Natural Hazard Management, Innsbruck, AustriaInstitute of Public Finance, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

The Issue New Orleans, August 2005

…after Hurricane Katrina…

www.katrinahelp.com

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

The Issue

…finding strategies to cope…

www.katrinahelp.com

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

The Issue

…desperate relief actions…

www.katrinahelp.com

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

The Issue

The provision of protective measures ?

…can be (have to be) bought on the market by private persons usually to protect their own belongings;

Demand = Supply

www.waterstructures.com

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

The Issue

The provision of protective measures ?

…who pays in that case?

Everybody uses the city’s infrastructure, thus protection is needed!

Demand > Supplywww.dywidag-systems.com

www.rivers.ch

No market, thus the state’s responsibility– but how to decide?

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

The Challenge

politicians lack of information about technicalities and people’s preferences

bureaucracies inefficiencies in centralising/decentralising decisions

based on experts‘ judgements? allocative inefficiencies: does not include preferences of those who actually pay for them

based on preferences of the affected parties (votes, etc.) can the public decide upon protection measures against natural hazards?

Yes: informed decision making process

Hypothesis: participation increases efficiency of decision outcomes

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

The Research

Theoretical Background:

Economic and political theoretic concepts are used to derive the hypothesis about whether and how participation increases the efficiency and effectiveness of decision processes.

Empirical Study:

An exemplary preventive measure, i.e. danger zone planning, is intended to be tested in terms of the effects of participation in actual decision making processes.

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

The Research

Participation::

Political Science Theories: Ideal of Democracy Representing the will of people Conflicting interests

Unanimity as “the ultimate truth statement”

underlying political theory: deliberative democracy

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

Origins in Rawls’ ideas: (Rawls, 1971, 1997 and 1999) relevance of discussions in politics requirements:

theory of justice everyone needs to be treated as equals the normative strand of the “good individual”

Creation of an ideal of public deliberation

The way consensus is aimed at:

rational consensus as fundamental goal vehicle: Habermas‘ ideal of deliberation

(Habermas 1975 and 1992) admitting: consensus cannot be reached at all times

second-best: voting rules

Decisions will still differ from the outcomes of decisions where collective choice models had been applied at the outset

The Research

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

Political Economists: Sceptical

Economic Theory of Politics:

ideal of unanimity revisited

transfer economic arguments onto politics

establish rules to control politics

instead of welfare economic ideal of efficiency,

criterion of unanimity

rules are legitimate if created through consensus

Outcome versus Process = Welfare versus constitutional economics

solving conflicts through discourse

N…Number of individuals K…required number for a decision Source: Buchanan and Tullock (1962)K=N=unanimity – C=0C…external costs of majority votingD…decision time costs of achieving the required majorityK*…minimum of total costs (C+D) – number of individuals required for an optimal majority

The Research

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

Deliberative Democracy and Constitutional Economics:

Why think of linkages at all?

similar democratic ideals deliberative democracy could strengthen idea of constitutional

economics discourse as an alternative to constitutionalism deliberative democracy cannot be viewed isolated – collective

decision making is still necessary participation in forming constitutions decreases adaptations in

future bargaining over believes

Conclusion : concepts do not contradict idea of implementing it on other decision levels apart from the

meta-level

The Research

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

Participation in practice: many legislations include direct participation in the decision process: informed decision making

Example: danger zone planning in Austria Do people use the opportunity? Does their participation have an effect on the final outcome? What can we conclude on the efficiency?

Using structuring methods that integrate technical information and preferences of affected parties

Example: MCDA Evaluate its strengths in comparison to other techniques

(Gamper et al., 2006) Evaluate its potential as a governance instrument, especially

for public decision contexts coupled with uncertainty, e.g. natural catastrophes (Gamper et al., 2006)

The Implementation

SRA – Session “Risk Reduction Culture”

Thank you for your Thank you for your attention!attention!

For further information or a copy of the For further information or a copy of the preliminary working paper please contact me:preliminary working paper please contact me:

Email: Email: gamper@alps-gmbh.comPhone: +43 (0) 512 392929 19Phone: +43 (0) 512 392929 19