SSC Report to NEFMC

Newport, RIDecember 6, 2017

Jason McNamee, SSC Chair

Topics

• Scallop OFLs & ABCs 2018-2019• Whiting + Red hake OFLs & ABCs 2018-2020• Groundfish OFLs & ABCs 2018-2020

Scallops

Scallops: Growth

• Growth still slow relative to other areas in NLS

• Projected growth underperformed slightly but still better assumption than normal growth assumption

Scallops: Growth

• Growth slow relative to other areas in ET

• Projected growth higher than that seen in 2017

Scallops: Biomass estimates

Scallops: Summary

• The SSC agreed with the modifications made to the update assessment as defined and explained by the PDT

• OFL for sea scallops is 72,055 mt in 2018 and 69,633 mt in 2019 (default)

• ABC for sea scallops should not exceed 59,968 mt in 2018 and 58,126 mt in 2019 (default)

Scallops: Summary

• SSC recommends that the PDT continue to investigate alternate weighting scenarios for combining the three surveys used in the analysis

• Good opportunity to do this during 2018 benchmark stock assessment

• Examination could include geostatistical methods and dredge efficiency

• SSC supports continuing investigation into varying growth rates

• Investigation could be implemented as standard procedure for annual update

Whiting and Red Hake

Silver Hake: Survey trends and F

Northern

Southern

Northern

Southern

Red Hake: Survey trends and F

Whiting and Red Hake: Summary• OFL for 2018 - 2020:

• Northern silver hake = 58,350 mt• Southern silver hake = 31,180 mt• Northern red hake = 840 mt• Southern red hake = 1,150 mt

• ABC for 2018 – 2020 not to exceed:• Northern silver hake = 31,030 mt• Southern silver hake = 19,395• Northern red hake = 721 mt• Southern red hake = 1,060 mt

• Recommend re-evaluating and updating reference points at next opportunity

Whiting and Red Hake: Summary• New analytical assessment techniques should be

investigated at a benchmark

• SSC recommends new ABC control rules be developed for these stocks to promote rebuilding (Southern red rake)

• Comment in response to PDT recommendation on P* values

• Revisit use of 3- year average in stock status determination

• SSC recommends revisiting these stocks again to avoid stock status declining to the point of needing to enter in to a rebuilding plan

• Due to Southern red hake

Groundfish

Groundfish: General issues• Operational assessment process:

• Commend all participants for efforts to complete tasks in a focused and efficientmanner

• Issue with regard to documenting the use and review of catchability research• Was reviewed/discussed at workshop but did

not show up in SSC documents• Recommend re-evaluating SSC control rules

• Constant catch being used routinely• Empirical approaches create challenges• Recommend letting significant change

working group work on strawman approach

Groundfish: General issues• Retrospective patterns:

• SSC recommends that a thorough re-examination of appropriate scientific/management responses to retrospective patterns is warranted

• Cross stock risk: • SSC recommends finding a good way to

formally provide information on indirect risks of catch advice to external stocks

Groundfish: GB and GOM WinterFlounder

• First stock where survey catchability (q) research arose as a discussion item

• For GOM winter flounder, the notion of applying new q to all surveys was questioned, should be investigated further

• Disagreement on whether the catchability information impacted catch advice deliberations

• SSC discussed numerous approaches for developing catch advice

• Consensus reached to adopt PDT option for both stocks using constant ABC for the three years of the specification setting period to account for scientific uncertainty

Groundfish: SNE/MA Winter Flounder

• Optimistic projections for this stock driven by apparent overestimation of recruitment

• Additionally, domed shaped selectivity creating an abundance of “cryptic biomass”

• Decision was to use model output and PDT option as initial basis for catch advice, but to account for scientific uncertainties (above) and poor stock status, SSC based ABC on average of recent 3 years of catch and keeping catch advice constant

• Additional recommendation was to better account for changes in productivity by investigating subsetting recruitment from periods of lower productivity when doing projections

Groundfish: CC/GOM Yellowtail• q research discussed again but decided to use the PDT constant

ABC option

• Rationale for applying a different approach in setting catch advice for CC/GoM yellowtail as compared to SNE/MA yellowtail (stay tuned) was:

• projections performing better for this stock• positive signals from assessment (increased biomass and

strong recruitment signal)

• SSC discussed use of ensemble of models for setting catch advice• Attributes to both the analytical and empirical approach• May be value in investigating the use of an ensemble of

information for setting catch advice in the future • Can address multiple sources of uncertainty simultaneously

Groundfish: Northern and Southern Windowpane

• Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option

• Now information available for an area swept biomass approach, recommend that this be investigated for future windowpane assessments

Groundfish: Atlantic Wolfish

• Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option

• SSC discussed the need to develop a new harvest control rule for this stock• Setting ABC much higher than recent

catch seemed counterintuitive• Would be worthwhile to revisit the need

for catch advice for a stock that has a harvest prohibition on it

Groundfish: American Plaice• Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option

• Discussion on improving the analysis for plaice given new age information

• SSC noted data conflicts in information (different inshore and offshore trends), however, given good stock status, SSC comfortable with 75%FMSY projection recommendation

• Economic considerations discussed, but given that there was no quantified info provided, SSC requested developing techniques to bring economic info into process in future

Groundfish: Witch Flounder• Discussion on ability to determine OFL; SSC continues to state that

we do not have a good approach for determining OFL

• SSC was informed that Council is seeking guidance on how to address the unknown OFL situation from NOAA; Council will provide guidance once received

• Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option

• Justification were:• Recent, strong year class that will allow for rebuilding• Signal corroborated by other sources of information external

to assessment• Per info provided and public comment, further restrictions in

catch would increase the risk of constraining catch and negative economic consequences on other stocks

Groundfish: GOM Cod• Ensemble approach using multiple model inference was

used to set catch advice • SSC dropped one of the three models considered in the

past • Mramp model that drops to M=0.2 not considered

biologically reasonable

• Rho adjustment was not used in this case for the M=0.2 model. Justified by:

• Examination of the CVs (very precise)• Not recommend by reviewers• Inclusion would have had little impact on the catch

advice• Ensemble approach accounts for scientific uncertainty

Groundfish: GB Cod• Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT

option

• SSC discussion focused on “PlanBsmooth”, recommend:• Approach be simulation tested to

answer questions about stability• Control rule options be investigated for

this technique

Groundfish: Pollock

• Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option (constant catch)

• Stock status is good so justification for constant catch approach is “cryptic biomass” that is accumulating for this species• Outcome of catch advice is sensitive to this

feature• Constant catch approach warranted to

account for this scientific uncertainty

Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail• This stock was an extremely difficult deliberation for the

SSC

• Advice was rendered in October (rejected analytical assessment, peer review advice, and PDT options for catch advice) choosing to use “PlanBsmooth” for setting catch advice• q discussion was a major factor in the above decision

• Subsequent to the meeting, “PlanBsmooth” method developed during October meeting was reviewed and found to be inconsistent

• Re-deliberated on a conference call November 27, 2017

Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail• Corrected calculation of “PlanBsmooth” changed catch advice significantly

• SSC members noted that the stock was in poor condition given the indicators examined by the SSC, and conservative management is warranted

• Despite this , some SSC members cited lack of confidence in analytical assessment given the results of the assessment in the context of the q research

• After a vigorous discussion with multiple proposals being made, the SSC reached the following recommendations:

• The majority of the SSC recommends averaging model based PDT recommendation with the corrected “PlanBsmooth” output

• Model averaging recommended to account for the scientific uncertainty associated with the two divergent model outputs

Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail• Despite a concerted effort to reach consensus, there is a minority

opinion from the SSC

• This opinion was to offer a range of catch advice based on the two proposals offered rather than the average as recommended by the majority of the SSC

• Results in an OFL with a range from 134 – 45 mt and an ABC in the range of 100 – 35 mt

• Recommended to highlight the range of uncertainty that SSC was contending with

• Both recommendations are higher than what the analytical model suggests as being appropriate in the first year of the specification, but the majority recommendation becomes lower in subsequent years

• Adequately accounts for continued poor stock status• Large reduction from previous advice

Groundfish: ABCs and OFLsStock

OFL ABC OFL ABC OFL ABC2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020

GB cod 3,047 2,285 3,047 2,285 3,047 2,285GOM cod 938 703 938 703 938 703GB Haddock 94,274 73,114 99,757 73,114 100,825 73,114GOM Haddock 16,954 13,131 16,038 12,490 13,020 10,186

GB Yellowtail Flounder unknown 300 unknown 300 - -

SNE/MA Yellowtail Flounder 90 68 90 68 90 68CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 662 511 736 511 848 511American Plaice 2,260 1,732 2,099 1,609 1,945 1,492

Witch Flounder unknown 993 unknown 993 unknown 993

GB Winter Flounder 1,083 855 1,182 855 1,756 855GOM Winter Flounder 596 447 596 447 596 447SNE/MA Winter Flounder 1,228 727 1,228 727 1,228 727Acadian Redfish 15,451 11,552 15,640 11,785 15,852 11,942White Hake 3,885 2,971 3,898 2,971 3,916 2,971Pollock 51,680 40,172 53,940 40,172 57,240 40,172Northern Windowpane Flounder 122 92 122 92 122 92Southern Windowpane Flounder 631 473 631 473 631 473Ocean Pout 169 127 169 127 169 127Atlantic Halibut- 2015 SSC 210 158Wolffish 120 90 120 90 120 90

Questions?