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April, 2013 SOUTH-SOUTH LEARNING ON CCT TRAINING WORKSHOP
LAURA DÁVILA LÁRRAGA
TARGETING AND
BENEFICIARIES SELECTION
EXPERIENCE IN MEXICO’S
“OPORTUNIDADES”
Content
• Oportunidades at a glance
• Mexico’s Regulations on poverty
• Selection of beneficiary households: multi-level targeting
• Oportunidades’ Geographic Targeting
• Collection of household data
• Proxy means test
• Oportunidades’ incorporation criteria
• Oportunidades’s recertification strategy
• Graduation Strategy
• Some lessons learned
Oportunidades at a glance (1)
• Oportunidades has been one of the key pieces of the Mexican
Federal Governement’s targeted social policy since 1997
(formerly called “Progresa”).
• The responsible for its implementation is the National
Coordination of Oportunidades, a specialized and decentralized
agency of the Social Development Ministry, with technical
autonomy.
• The program provides bimonthly cash transfers to 5,845,056
households 1 (slightly more than 25% of the Mexican population).
• The budget allocated to the Progam in 2013 is 66,132 million
Mexican pesos 2 (around 5.3 billion USD3).
1. Source: http://www.oportunidades.gob.mx/Portal/wb/Web/historico_cobertura_municipios_localidades
2. Source: http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/PEF_2013.pdf (p. 94)
3. Exchange rate: 12.45 MXP = 1 USD
Oportunidades at a glance (2)
Oportunidades aims to contribute to the interruption of
the intergenerational transmission of poverty,
promoting investment in the human capital of the
beneficiary households1.
Development
goal
1. Source: 2012 Oportunidades’ Operating Guidelines (p. 3)
2. Source: 2012 Oportunidades’ Operating Guidelines (p. 4)
Beneficiary
target group
Households whose socioeconomic and income
conditions prevent increase the potential of their
members to build capacities in three dimensions:
education, nutrition and health2.
Mexico’s Regulations on poverty (1)
• The “General Law on Social
Development” states that the guidelines
and criteria issued by the National
Council for the Evaluation of the Social
Development Policy (CONEVAL) to
define, identify and measure poverty
are mandatory to any Mexican institution
that implements social development
policy, programs and actions.
• CONEVAL should use information
generated by the National Institution of
Statistics and Geography (INEGI), and
the poverty measurement should include,
at least, the following indicators:
1. Current per capita
income
2. Educational gap
3. Access to health
services
4. Access to social
security
5. Quality and spaces
of the dwelling
6. Access to basic
services in the
dwelling
7. Access to food
8. Degree of social
cohesion
Population in multidimensional
poverty
Population in EXTREME
multidimensional poverty
Mexico’s Regulations on poverty (2)
Source: http://www.coneval.gob.mx/rw/resource/coneval/med_pobreza/MPMMPshortversion100903.pdf
In 2010, nearly 50% of Mexican
population were classified as poor
and 10% as extreme poor.
Selection of beneficiary households: multi-level targeting
Localities selection:
Geographic targeting
Socioeconomic and
demographic information:
Collecction of data at the household level
Households Selection:
Proxy means test applied to each household survey
List of Beneficiaries:
Incorporation criteria
MUNICIPALITIES
Oportunidades’ Geographic Targeting
STATES LOCALITIES
PROPORCIÓN DE HOGARES POBRES
Sin datos
Menor al 20%
Del 20 al 39.99%
Del 40 al 59.99%
Del 60 al 79.99%
Del 80 al 100 %
Ageb Urbano
LÍMITES
SERVICIOS
Cem enterio
Escuel a
Iglesia
Mercado
Palacio o Ayudantía
Plaza o Jardín
Servi ci o Médico
Ageb Urbano
CLA VES
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LAS MARGARITAS, CHIAPAS
(70520001)
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043 -7
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042 -2
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057 -9
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055 -A
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060 -0
063 -4
064 -9
BLOCKS
BASIC
GEOSTATISTICAL AREAS
The operation of the Programa relies on the official information
provided by the National Institute of Geography and Statistics, at
the locality level. In line to its priorities, Oportunidades uses: the
Marginality Index, the Social Gap Index and information about the
accesibility to health and education services.
Collection of household data
• Oportunidades’ trained staff interview a member of each
household (aged 15 years or older). The same questionnaire is
applied nationally and directly in their homes.
• A mobile device is used for the data collection. It is programmed to
follow the sequence of the interview and validate some data.
• In urban areas a brief questionnaire is applied as a filter which
determines to continue or not with the complete questionnaire.
• The complete questionnaire includes variables related to:
demographic, disability, health, education, and labor characteristics
of each household member; expenditure and consumption, food
security, land, animal and goods ownership; type of dwelling and
access to basic services. Besides, there is a visual verification at
home.
Proxy means test (1)
• There are two linear regression models to target beneficiaries
(urban and rural). They were estimated using data from the 2008
National Survey of Households' Income and Expenditure.
• In both models the dependent variable is the same income used
by CONEVAL for measuring poverty (official figures), but
excluding cash transfers from social programs. The explanatory
variables are related with structural poverty.
• This targeting methodology was implemented in 2010 and it is
applied at the central level using data collected by the household
questionnaire, including the visual verification information.
Proxy means test (2)
• The estimated income is compared to an estimated Minimum
Wellbeing Threshold (MWT) to select beneficiaries. The rural
threshold was around $52 USD while the urban was set around
$89 USD.
• With data from 2008, 4.5 million of households were allocated
below the estimated MWT; 2.12 in rural areas and 2.38 in urban
areas.
• In the rural model, 76% of the households are correctly
identified; in the urban model, 88%. The exclusion/inclusion error
in rural areas is 31% while in urban areas is 52%.
Oportunidades’ incorporation criteria
• Validation that targeted households have effective access to
health and education services (inter-sectoral coordination of the
Program at the three governmental levels).
• If a household has an estimated income below the Minimum
Wellbeing Threshold (MWT) some priority criteria is applied in
order to incorporate them to Oportunidades:
• Households with members under 22 years.
• Households with at least one woman in reproductive age (15-
49 years).
Oportunidades’s recertification strategy (1)
1.16 MH
1.16 MH
1.16 MH
1.16 MH
1.16 MH
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2023 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 47,000
locs
17,000
locs
14,000
locs
9,000
locs
8,000
locs
Recertification cycle Recertification cycle
The socioeconomic and demographic questionnaire is applied nationally
and at the household level (within the selected localities)
The proxy means test is applied to the data collected
As result of the recertification process, the household:
Continues to be eligible for the Program (estimated income below
the MWT),
Is eligible for a Differentiated (reduced) Scheme of Benefits
Is ineligible (above the cut-off point), therefore is dropped
(“graduated”) from the Program
EDA (RSB)
With children under 22 years or women
under 50 years
Without children Until the youngest woman turns 50
years old
EXIT THE PROGRAM
With children in school
Until the youngest finishes high school
EXIT THE PROGRAM
With children not in school
Up to 2 years in order to return to
school
EXIT THE PROGRAM
Without children under 22 years and women under 50
years
EXIT THE PROGRAM
Oportunidades’s recertification strategy (2)
Households eligible to continue receiving the complete or reduced
scheme of Program benefits will remain as beneficiaries while they
meet their co-responsibilities.
Oportunidades’s recertification strategy (3)
• From 2000 to 2006, the recertification strategy do not dropped
households as a result of the data analysis: 4.2 million households were
recertified, 9% were transited to the Reduced Squeme of Benefits (RSB)
and of these, 50% drop out before the defined period.
• From 2007 to 2010, with the previous recertification strategy: 3.18
million households were recertified, 7% transited to the RSB and 5%
were dropped (or “graduated”) from Oportunidades.
• In 2011, with the current recertification strategy: 1.1 million households
were recertified: 20% transited to the RSB and 31% were dropouts.
Graduation Strategy
RSB (*)
Minimum
WT
Beneficiaries
threshold
Wellbeing
Threshold
(WT)
CONEVAL
$1,921.74
(154 USD)
Oportunidades
CONEVAL
Exchange rate: 12.45 MXP = 1 USD
$2,088.25
(168 USD)
$874.63
(70 USD)
$613.80
(49 USD)
Oportunidades
BEN
EFIC
IAR
IES
$1,202.80
(97 USD)
$1,111.54
(89 USD)
$ 643.05
(52 USD)
EXIT
BEN
EFIC
IAR
IES
RSB (*)
EXIT
$1,395.87
(112 USD) $1,036.33
(83 USD)
Drop-out
threshold
* Demographic criteria is applied
Some lessons learned (1)
• Living conditions of households are different in rural and urban
contexts. The Program uses two different models to take this into
account and improve its targeting results, mainly in urban areas.
• Although discriminant analysis and the logit model allow classify
households according to their poverty condition, linear regression
allows to adjust the cut-off line without re-estimating the model. It
also allows its application using different thresholds and adjust it
for inflation.
Some lessons learned (2)
• According to some related studies, improvements in the
socioeconomic conditions of households can hardly be reflected
within a short term period and this also depends on the overall
context of the locality.
• In terms of operation, it is more complicated and more costly
carrying out the recertification process by the incorporation
phase of the household, than at the locality level (according to a
strategic planning, a locality should be “recertified” every five
years).
Laura Dávila Lárraga
Consultant
Oportunidades website:
www.oportunidades.gob.mx
(Spanish and English version)
SOUTH-SOUTH LEARNING ON CCT TRAINING WORKSHOP
THANK YOU.