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Maroto & Severson

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Stability of Life Course Predictors in Leaving the Parental Home and Homeownership,

Canada, 2001 to 2011

Michelle Maroto (corresponding author)

Department of Sociology

University of Alberta

6-23 Tory Building

Edmonton, AB T6G 2H4

+1.780.492.0478

[email protected]

Meryn Severson

Capital Region Housing

10232 112 Street

Edmonton, AB T5K 1M4

+1.780.420.6161

[email protected]

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:

This research was partially supported by a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council

(SSHRC) Insight Development Grant (#430-2014-00092).

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Abstract

Leaving the parental home and homeownership, key demographic markers on the path to

adulthood, are intimately tied to other adult transitions in education, employment, relationships,

and parenthood, as well as family background and the larger housing context. Despite a growing

interest in these outcomes within the international literature, few recent Canadian studies have

addressed the housing arrangements of young adults. We use pooled cross-sectional General

Social Survey data from 2001-2011 to analyze transitions out of the parental home and into

homeownership among 18-35-year-olds and update knowledge on the situations of Canadian

young adults within a rapidly changing housing market. We find that although the proportion of

young adults leaving the parental home decreased since 2001, homeownership among

independent young adults increased across all waves. Findings further demonstrate persistent

socioeconomic and demographic disparities between young adults who can move out of their

parents' homes and into homeownership and those who remain at home, with important

repercussions on lifetime wealth inequality.

Keywords

Housing, Coresidence, Homeownership, Life course, Transition to adulthood, Wealth inequality

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Introduction

Among young adults, transitions out of parents' homes and into homeownership have

traditionally marked major milestones on the path to adulthood (Clark & Mulder, 2000;

Liefbroer & Toulemon, 2010; Mulder, 2013). Recently, however, increasing housing and

educational costs, a tighter labor market, and riskier employment prospects have complicated

these transitions in Canada and abroad (Banting & Myles, 2013; Fortin et al., 2012; Hacker,

2006). Although recent research on the Canadian context is limited, it is clear that young adults

in the United States, Europe, and Asia face increasing inaccessibility within the housing market

(Filandri & Bertolini, 2016; Mackie, 2016; Ronald & Lennartz, 2018). As housing is the primary

source of wealth for most families (Foster & Kleit, 2015; Spilerman, 2000), this has serious

repercussions for inter- and intra-generational inequality (McKee, 2012; Ronald & Lennartz,

2018).

We address the lack of recent housing research for young Canadian adults with a study of

independent living and homeownership among 18-35 year-olds between 2001 and 2011.

Specifically, we examine how different factors are associated with the living arrangements and

housing choices of young adults in Canada with three interrelated research questions that draw

on life course theory (Elder, 1985). First, how are the housing transitions of leaving the parental

home and moving into homeownership related to other life course trajectories of education,

work, relationships, and parenthood? Second, how do these transitions vary with demographics,

family background characteristics, and geographic context? Third, how has the relationship

between housing transitions, life course predictors, and individual characteristics changed over

time? In answering these questions from a life course perspective, we emphasize the

interconnected nature of housing transitions within a changing socioeconomic context for the

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transition to adulthood and provide an important update to our knowledge of the situation of

Canadian young adults.

We use three waves of cross-sectional Canadian General Social Survey (GSS) data from

2001, 2006, and 2011 to explore young adults’ housing choices in Canada over time. In addition

to describing trends in living arrangements for Canadian young adults over a decade, we employ

logistic regression models to estimate the probability of leaving the parental home among all

young adults and rates of homeownership among adults living independently from their parents.

Our analysis ties together life course theories with broader perspectives regarding variation in the

transition to adulthood with individual characteristics, family background, and regional housing

context.

Contrary to the European, American, and Australian experience of decreasing rates of

homeownership for young adults, coined “Generation Rent” (Beer et al., 2011; McKee, 2012;

Ronald & Lennartz, 2018), we find that although the proportion of young adults leaving the

parental home decreased since 2001, homeownership among independent young adults actually

increased across all regions. Despite changes in the economic and relationship trajectories of

young adults, we show that leaving the parental home and homeownership are still intimately

tied to transitions in education, employment, relationships, and parenthood, as well as family

background and the socioeconomic context surrounding young adults at the time. Similar to

other high-income countries, our results demonstrate persistent socioeconomic and demographic

disparities between young adults who are able to move out of their parents' homes and into

homeownership and those who remain at home, with important repercussions on lifetime wealth

inequalities (Filandri & Bertolini, 2016; McKee, 2012; Ronald & Lennartz, 2018). As the first

Canadian study to explore young adults' housing transitions within the path to adulthood since

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2007, this research provides an important contribution toward understanding the changing

connections between housing and other life course transitions within a rapidly changing housing

market, promoting the use of evidence-informed policy to address the housing challenges facing

young adults.

Background

Housing in Canada

For most young adults living in high-income countries, independent housing, especially

homeownership, represents an important transition into adulthood (McKee, 2012; Ronald, 2008).

This is particularly true within Canada, which has been characterized as a country of

homeowners (Grant & Scott, 2012). Of all the OECD countries, Canada experienced the largest

increases in homeownership between 2001 and 2011, rising from 62% to 69% (Cheung, 2014),

partly because the country did not encounter the same housing shocks during the Great Financial

Crisis of 2007/2008 as other high-income countries (Walks, 2014). Despite the strong

homeownership norms within Canadian society (Grant & Scott, 2012; Lauster, 2016), housing

affordability is a sustained and worsening problem across the country (CMHC-SCHL, 2016).

Recently, many organizations have issued warnings about escalating house prices, high levels of

mortgage debt, and deteriorating affordability in Canada’s housing market (OECD, 2016;

Cheung, 2014). In terms of the life course, declining affordability has had the largest impact on

young adults entering the housing market, with rising rates of parental coresidence (Statistics

Canada, 2017a) and increasing mortgage debt (MacDonald, 2015).

Compared to most European countries, Canada also stands out as a geographically large

and diverse country where housing circumstances vary across regions. The provinces of Ontario

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and British Columbia are characterized by large urban populations and high housing prices,

especially around the two most populous cities of Toronto and Vancouver (Statistics Canada,

2017b; 2017c). With their older populations, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces have had slower

growth and more accessible housing markets (Statistics Canada, 2017b; 2017c; 2017d). The

Prairies, particularly Alberta, are characterized by a young and fast-growing population

(Statistics Canada, 2017c; 2017d). With resource-dependent economies, the housing market in

these provinces is strongly impacted by oil booms and busts, with the largest effects on young

adults (Okkola & Brunelle, 2018). Thus, any study of housing transitions among young adults in

Canada must address regional variation.

Considering changing life course trajectories and increasingly inaccessible housing

markets, the housing transitions of young adults are a key policy and research challenge across

countries (Mackie, 2016; McKee, 2012). Life course theory effectively links the different

transitions during this dense demographic period with parental effects and contextual and

historical factors (Beer et al., 2011; Ronald & Lennartz, 2018). Building on the considerable

international research on housing experiences (Lennartz et al., 2015; Ronald & Lennartz, 2018;

McKee 2012; Mackie, 2016), we explore how young adults' housing arrangements have changed

over time with a specific focus on the stability of life course predictors on the housing transitions

of Canadian young adults.

Life course theory and housing transitions

Life course perspectives explore how social structures intersect with individual

biographies within socially mediated life-course scripts (Elder, 1994; Macmillan, 2005; Mayer,

2004, 2009; McDaniel & Bernard, 2011). According to Elder (1994), “the life course generally

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refers to the interweave of age-graded trajectories, such as work careers and family pathways,

that are subject to changing conditions and future options, and to short-term transitions ranging

from leaving school to retirement” (p. 5). Importantly, the life course framework connects

individuals with the contexts in which lives are lived, embedding individual lives within larger

social structures (Mayer, 2004).

The period of interest in this paper -- the transition to adulthood -- comprises a collection

of interrelated transitions that include completing higher education, obtaining full-time

employment, leaving the parental home, starting a married or cohabiting union, and having

children. These transitions are each part of five interrelated trajectories -- education, work,

housing, relationships, and parenthood -- that define the ever-changing passage into adulthood

(Clark, 2007). Housing transitions are central to this period where leaving the parental home and

moving into homeownership are closely tied to other trajectories within the transition to

adulthood (Clark, 2007; Kendig, 1990; Beer et al., 2011).

When forming independent households, young adults must also make tenure choices, but

paths vary based on life course elements that include demographics, regional context, and family

background (Beer et al., 2011; Clark & Mulder, 2000; Mulder, 2013). Generally, income,

education, and marriage are positively associated with homeownership (Turcotte 2007). For

instance, individuals in stable relationships with higher education and income have an easier time

entering the housing market than single individuals and those with less education and income

(Clark & Mulder, 2000; Mulder, 2013). Life course theories also highlight the importance of

linked lives, especially through the impact of parental background on their children’s lives and

timing in relation to the socio-spatial context surrounding the transition to adulthood (Elder,

1994; Macmillan, 2005).

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Although most youth today still progress through the same transitions as their parents, the

process is now more varied and elongated for these younger cohorts (Clark, 2007; Furstenberg,

2010; Liefbroer & Toulemon, 2010; Shanahan, 2000). Young adults in Europe and North

America leave their parental homes later, spend more time in higher education, take longer to

find stable employment, and delay marriage and parenthood when compared to earlier cohorts

(Clark, 2007; Furstenberg, 2010; Shanahan, 2000). Billari and Liefbroer (2010) describe this new

pattern in the transition to adulthood as "late, protracted, and complex."

Like other high-income countries, young adults in Canada are experiencing a delayed and

elongated transition to adulthood. Between 1971-2001, the youngest cohorts completed fewer

demographic milestones than cohorts at the same age (Clark, 2007). When they did eventually

complete these transitions, it was at later ages, which presents important implications for housing

and broader wealth trajectories. These changes are evident in rising rates of coresidence, where

adult children remain in their parental homes for longer (Bengtson, 2001; Milan, 2016). In 2011,

59% of 20-24 year-olds and 25% of 25-29 year-olds lived with their parents in Canada (Statistics

Canada, 2016). This represents increases of 43% among 20-24 year-olds and 123% among 25-29

year-olds since 1981. Increases in coresidence coincide with rising economic insecurity that is

especially present among young adults, who face lower wages, fewer available jobs, and higher

rates of unemployment when compared to earlier cohorts (Côté & Bynner, 2008; Milan, 2016;

Wiemers, 2014).

Although there have been significant changes in the transition to adulthood, demographic

milestones remain important markers in adulthood and predictors for housing transitions (Beer et

al., 2011; Liefbroer & Toulemon, 2010). Due to the linkages across trajectories illustrated in

other countries and earlier time periods, we expect that progress made within education,

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employment, relationship, and parenthood trajectories will continue to be associated with young

adults' trajectories in housing. Specifically, we expect that transitions into married or cohabiting

relationships and into parenthood will be positively associated with independent living and

homeownership (hypothesis 1a). We also expect that education levels and employment status will

be positively associated with independent living and homeownership (hypothesis 1b).

Variability in leaving home and homeownership

In addition to being linked to other trajectories, housing transitions are associated with

individual characteristics and family backgrounds, which is apparent with the rising variability in

the transition to adulthood. Today, fewer young adults follow the linear path of school-work-

marriage, and there are increasing disparities between young adults from high and low

socioeconomic families (Benson & Furstenberg, 2006; Furstenberg, 2010; Shanahan, 2000).

Further, as homeownership becomes increasingly inaccessible, disparities among young adults

on the basis of tenure have become more apparent (McKee, 2012).

Regarding specific individual characteristics, rates of home-leaving and homeownership

are associated with age and gender among young adults (Lafrance & LaRochelle-Cote, 2012;

Milan, 2016; South & Lei, 2015; White, 1994). Age has a significant positive relationship with

both leaving the parental home and homeownership, holding other demographics and life course

predictors constant (Clark & Mulder, 2000; Turcotte, 2007b). As such, a larger proportion of

young adults in their early 20s live with their parents while fewer young adults in their early 30s

live with their parents (Statistics Canada, 2017a). Women are also more likely to leave the home

earlier than men (Chiuri & Del Boca, 2010; White, 1994), but gender differences in rates of

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homeownership are less clear due to the relationship between homeownership and marriage

(Killewald, Pfeffer, & Schachner, 2017; Maroto, 2016).

Immigration status also affects young adults' transitions out of the parental home and

their access to homeownership. Immigrants are almost twice as likely as native-born citizens to

live in multigenerational households in Canada (Statistics Canada, 2013) and coresidence

between parents and adult children is higher in immigrant households (Milan, 2016), which

stems from broader constraints and cultural preferences (Albertini & Kohli, 2013; Hardie &

Seltzer, 2016; Lei & South, 2016). According to Gee, Mitchell, and Wister (2003), British-origin

young adults left earlier than East-Asian origin young adults, emphasizing the increasing

diversity in the Canadian population impacting life course trends. Additionally, Zhao, Rajulton

and Ravenera (1995) focused specifically on the impact of parental background, finding that

children of immigrants left home later than children of Canadian-born parents. Immigrant

households are also less likely to own homes and hold less wealth than their white and native-

born counterparts (Chatterjee & Zahirovic-Herbert, 2011; Maroto, 2016; Maroto & Aylsworth,

2016; Zhang, 2003). This is true for older immigrants and young adults (Turcotte, 2007a).

Previous literature indicates that leaving the parental home and homeownership will be

associated with age, gender, and immigrant status. Specifically, we expect that older young

adults, women, and non-immigrants will be more likely to live independently and, among those

who live independently, more likely to own their homes (hypothesis 2). Beyond these individual-

level characteristics, family background and economic situations should also influence housing

trajectories.

As articulated within the linked lives principle of life course theory, children's

progressions through life course trajectories are tied to their parents' backgrounds and family

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origins (Macmillan & Copher, 2005). This is apparent within research exploring the

intergenerational transmission of homeownership from parent to child through wealth transfers

and socialization (Macmillan & Copher, 2005; Mulder, 2013; Ronald & Lennartz, 2018).

Compared to young adults with fewer resources, the greater stability associated with coming

from a more advantaged family allows these young adults to leave their parental homes, enter

homeownership, and begin building equity earlier, likely exacerbating the disparities between

high and low socioeconomic status young adults (Coulter, 2018; Furtstenberg, 2010; McKee,

2012; Sandberg-Thoma, Snyder, & Jang, 2015). Specifically, parental homeownership,

occupation, and divorce are all associated with the intergenerational transfer of resources and

homeownership among young adults (Hubers, Dewilde, & de Graaf, 2018; Ronald & Lennartz,

2018; Smits & Mulder, 2008).

Parental coresidence differentially influences the housing transitions of young adult

children. Clear disparities exist between young adults who stay in their parental homes because

they can and those who stay because they must (Clark, 2007; Coulter, 2018; Furstenberg, 2010).

For some young adults, remaining in the parental home is a strategy used to save money for

homeownership and improve their economic circumstances (Coulter, 2018; Turcotte, 2007b).

When moves are shorter and transitions do not include other family changes, high quality

parental housing provides an alternative to independent housing, delaying home-leaving (Mulder

& Clark, 2000; Mulder, 2013). These findings imply that rates of independent living will be

lower among young adults from more stable households, but rates of homeownership will be

higher. We, therefore, expect that young adults with more highly educated parents and those who

lived in two-parent households until their teenage years will be less likely to live independently

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(hypothesis 3a). However, among those who have left parents' homes, we expect that these young

adults will be more likely to be homeowners (hypothesis 3b).

Impact of the housing market

Housing prices and affordability further influence housing transitions, where young

adults are less likely to live independently in more expensive areas with tighter housing markets,

including Canada’s larger cities (Filandri & Bertolini, 2016; Milan, 2016; Mulder & Clark,

2000). Local conditions in labor and housing are also associated with intergenerational

coresidence. In the United States, high student debt, economic instability, and housing costs have

kept many young adults in their parental homes (Bleemer et al., 2014). As shown by Lennartz

and colleague's (2015) cross-national European research, young adults had the greatest difficulty

entering the homeownership market after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in countries that

“had pursued the ideal of owner occupation most rigorously, often through the

institutionalisation of market-led financing mechanisms and the uptake of high levels of

mortgage debt before 2008” (p. 11). Other European studies have highlighted decreasing levels

of homeownership among young adults in “Generation Rent” due to high housing costs (McKee,

2012; Mackie, 2016). Overall, when suitable and affordable housing is more difficult to secure,

home leaving is often delayed (Mulder, 2006, 2013), reinforcing the importance of context in

studying the transition to adulthood.

Looking at tenure choices, higher housing costs further reduce the likelihood of owning a

home (Clark & Mulder, 2000; Mulder, 2013). High housing prices are negatively associated with

young adults' likelihood of homeownership in the United States (Clark & Mulder, 2000), the

Netherlands (Blaauboer, 2010), Germany (Mulder & Wagner, 1998), the UK (McKee, 2012),

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Australia (Beer & Faulkner, 2009), and elsewhere (Mackie, 2016; McKee, 2012). In Canada,

rates of homeownership decreased for young adults in the early 1990s, a time characterized by

difficulty entering the housing market due to high interest rates and a series of recessions, similar

difficulties facing current young adults (Hou, 2010). Additionally, Turcotte (2007a) found that

young adults living in rural locations were more likely to own their homes, which is a function of

differential housing costs between large urban centres and rural areas. These findings highlight

how both time and place can influence young adults’ tenure.

The impact of housing costs on housing transitions becomes even more relevant in light

of Canadian housing market trends and the growing affordability crisis in combination with the

socioeconomic conditions that impact both access to the housing market and the transition to

adulthood, including high costs of housing, labor precarity, and stagnating incomes (Bleemer et

al., 2014; McKee, 2012). In light of the reviewed literature, we expect to find fewer young adults

leaving the parental home and becoming homeowners between 2001 and 2011, as other

transitions are delayed and the context becomes more difficult to form independent households

(hypothesis 4a). We also expect that this delayed relationship will be exaggerated in regions

where the housing context is particularly difficult for household formation, mainly British

Columbia and Ontario (hypothesis 4b).

Overall, previous studies emphasize how housing transitions are linked to socioeconomic,

demographic, parental, and contextual variables. As they face increasingly precarious

socioeconomic circumstances and inaccessible housing contexts, the housing challenges of

young adults are receiving increasing attention. Particularly, recent European research highlights

increasing numbers of young adults renting instead of owning and increasing intra- and

intergenerational inequality along tenure lines (McKee, 2012). However, in the Canadian

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context, there is relatively little recent research exploring the housing situations of young adults

and the relationship to other socioeconomic, demographic, and contextual variables. Most

research is from the early 2000s, prior to significant price increases in the housing market

(Walks, 2014). We, therefore, update this research through 2011 by examining the relationships

among life course transitions, individual demographics, and family background over time.

Data, Measures, and Methods

Data

In order to analyze the transition to adulthood in Canada, we pool data from Statistics

Canada’s 2001, 2006, and 2011 General Social Survey on Family (GSS Family) public use

micro-files (PUMFs), the most recent data available. Despite the importance of studying the life

course longitudinally, as events that occur earlier in life can impact events later in life (Elder,

1994; McDaniel & Bernard, 2011), few large longitudinal datasets exist in Canada, especially in

comparison to countries such as the United States and Germany. We work around this limitation

by analyzing three waves of trend data. Although these data do not follow the same respondents

throughout their lives, the GSS asks the same questions over time so that it is possible to analyze

changes in the life course of individuals in the aggregate. The GSS also asks questions about

respondents' parents to be able to analyze the influence of parental characteristics on respondent

outcomes.

The GSS is a cross-sectional, national, telephone survey of individuals 15 years and older

living in the ten provinces, excluding individuals living in the territories and in institutions. The

data were collected using a stratified sampling procedure, where the ten provinces were divided

into geographic strata from which samples were drawn monthly. This survey repeats the core

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family content every five years, starting in 1985. Due to questionnaire changes and variations in

the target sample size, however, we do not include the waves earlier than 2001. The overall

response rate for the survey was 79.0% in 2001 (Statistics Canada, 2003), 67.4% in 2006

(Béchand & Marchand, 2008), and 65.8% in 2011 (Beaupré, 2013).

We focus on young adults in Canada and restrict our sample to individuals between 18-35

years of age. After including these age restrictions and removing cases with missing data on

certain variables, this resulted in a final sample of 15,845 young adults, which we use for our

analyses of transitions out of the parental home. We then also analyze homeownership within a

second sub-sample of 12,033 individuals who had already left their parents' homes.

Measures

We use two outcome variables to examine housing transitions among young adults --

living independently of parents and homeownership. We derived the first variable from living

arrangement information, indicating if the respondent lived independently of their parents and

outside the parental home. The second key variable indicates whether the respondent is a

homeowner. We assess independent living in the full sample of young adults, and

homeownership within a restricted sample of young adults who have left their parental homes.

We incorporate four sets of predictor variables related to life course transitions,

demographics, family background, and context, as discussed within our hypotheses. Life course

transition variables account for the four related transitions within the transition to adulthood

other than housing – education, employment, relationships, and parenthood (Clark, 2007). We

include two sets related to education/employment and relationships/parenthood to test

hypotheses 1a and 1b. The education and employment variables are education level and

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employment/enrollment status. Educational level is a categorical variable with five categories --

Bachelor's degree or higher (referent), college/trades diploma or certificate, some post-secondary

schooling, high school diploma, or less than a high school diploma. Employment/enrollment

status is a categorical variable with four categories -- employed full or part-time and not enrolled

in school (referent), not employed and not enrolled in school, employed and enrolled in school,

and not employed and enrolled in school. The relationship and parenthood variables indicate

relationship status and parental status. Relationship status has four categories -- never married

(referent), currently married, cohabiting but not married, and formerly married (separated,

widowed, or divorced). We measure parental status with a dichotomous variable indicating the

presence of children in the household.

Demographic variables used to test hypothesis 2 include sex, age, and immigrant status.

Sex is a dichotomous variable of male or female with female as the referent category. We

measure age with a categorical variable with three categories -- 18-24 years, 25-29 years, and 30-

35 years -- following age categories commonly used by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada

2016, 2017a). Immigrant status is a categorical variable with the following categories: non-

immigrant (referent), second-generation immigrant, and first-generation immigrant.1 For

hypothesis 3, we assess parental education levels by including a measure that indicates whether

the respondent has at least one parent with a post-secondary degree or higher. We include a

measure of the respondent's childhood living situation with a variable that indicates whether the

respondent did not live with both parents at age 15. Together, these variables help to capture

variation in housing outcomes across young adults.

1 Second generation immigrants were born in Canada but have parents who immigrated to Canada. First generation immigrants immigrated to Canada as children or adults.

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Finally, we also account for context by including region and year in our models, which

allows us to test our fourth set of hypotheses. We used region of residence instead of province to

ensure the geographic areas had larger and approximately equal sample sizes. We assess six

regions -- Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba and British Columbia --

with Ontario as the referent region. We also include an indicator for survey year of 2001, 2006,

or 2011 to study change over time.

Methods

In addition to our descriptive discussion of change in housing transitions by region and

over time, we use several sets of logit models to examine predictors of independent living and

homeownership in Canada. To assess changing relationships over time, we also estimate separate

models by year. All models include sample survey weights and robust standard errors that

account for clustering by region.

Results

Independent living and homeownership over time

Figure 1 displays the percentage of young adults age 18-35 living independently (top

panel) in Canada, and among those living independently, the percentage who own their homes

(bottom panel) by region and time period. Consistent with trends in other countries, rates of

independent living have decreased in Canada since 2001 with young adults taking longer to leave

parental homes and being more likely to move back after having left (Beer et al., 2011). The

overall proportion of Canadian young adults living independently steadily decreased from 68%

in 2001 to 63% in 2006 to 55% in 2011, but the magnitude of these declines varied across

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regions (Figure 1). Not surprisingly, declines were steepest in Ontario and BC, provinces where

the cost of living is much higher.

Figure 1. Percentage of Young Adults Living Independently and Owning Homes by Region and Year

SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 15,845 individuals age 18-35 NOTES: Estimates include sample survey weights. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

Ontario Atlantic QuebecManitoba/

Saskatchewan AlbertaBritish

Columbia

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percentage of Young Adults Living Independently

200120062011

Ontario Atlantic QuebecManitoba/

Saskatchewan AlbertaBritish

Columbia

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percentage of Independent Young Adults Owning Homes

200120062011

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Despite rising costs, decreasing affordability, and worsening socioeconomic conditions

for young adults, homeownership rates among young adults living independently have increased

since 2001 in direct contrast to much international research (McKee, 2012; Ronald & Lennartz,

2018). Among young adults who had left home, 65% were homeowners in 2011, compared to

less than half in 2001. Patterns varied across regions again, where homeownership rates were

highest in Manitoba and Saskatchewan in 2011, but much lower in Quebec and British

Columbia. This preliminary comparison illustrates that although young adults are now less likely

to leave their parental homes, homeownership rates have actually increased among those who

live independently. However, when looking at homeownership among all young adults,

including those within their parental homes in the denominator, trend data show few differences

in homeownership over time with only 30-40% of these young adults owning their homes. It

appears as though Canadian young adults are choosing coresidence over renting when

homeownership is not an option, a trend that further highlights strong norms of homeownership.

Additionally, there were clear differences between young adults living with at least one

parent and those living independently, as presented in Table 1. Young adults living at home were

younger than those living independently; most 18-24 year-olds lived with at least one parent

(71%) while few 31-35 year-olds did the same (9%). The overwhelming majority of young

adults in their parental home were never married (94%), but most independent young adults were

either married or cohabiting with a partner (71%). Independent young adults were also more

likely to have a post-secondary education. Although almost equal proportions of young adults

were employed, far more independent young adults were employed and not enrolled in school

(79% vs. 50%), highlighting the relationship between completing education before household

formation. These descriptive statistics therefore imply linkages between education, employment,

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relationship, parenthood, and housing trajectories, but also highlight the socioeconomic

differences between independent young adults and those in their parental homes.

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Young Adults (Age 18-35) in Canada, GSS, 2001-2011

Total Sample

Living Situation

In Parental Home Independent

Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE

Housing situation Live independently of parents 61.75 0.52 -- -- -- --

Own home 35.12 0.45 -- -- 56.88 0.54 Demographics

Age 18-24 years 38.35 0.50 71.36 0.92 17.89 0.43

25-30 years 27.98 0.46 20.04 0.85 32.90 0.53 31-35 years 33.68 0.44 8.60 0.52 49.21 0.55 Male 50.21 0.50 56.62 0.95 46.25 0.55 Immigrant status

Non-immigrant 62.92 0.50 56.64 0.97 66.81 0.53 Second generation immigrant 18.65 0.41 24.79 0.85 14.85 0.39 First generation immigrant 18.43 0.42 18.58 0.81 18.34 0.46 Life course transitions

Marital Status Never married 52.33 0.50 94.04 0.47 26.49 0.47

Married 29.61 0.43 3.41 0.38 45.84 0.55 Cohabiting, not married 15.82 0.34 1.41 0.22 24.75 0.49 Formerly married 2.24 0.12 1.14 0.20 2.93 0.16

Any children 31.18 0.43 4.39 0.40 47.77 0.55 Education level

Bachelor's degree or higher 24.88 0.43 15.61 0.76 30.63 0.51 College/trade diploma or certificate 27.40 0.44 20.80 0.80 31.49 0.51 Some post-secondary 23.45 0.44 35.38 0.92 16.05 0.41 High school diploma 15.41 0.35 18.09 0.69 13.75 0.37 Less than high school diploma 8.86 0.27 10.13 0.53 8.08 0.30

Employment and education status Employed, not enrolled in school 68.06 0.48 50.11 0.96 79.18 0.45

Not employed, not enrolled 7.23 0.24 3.40 0.34 9.60 0.31 Employed, enrolled 18.58 0.43 36.41 0.93 7.54 0.31 Not employed, enrolled 6.13 0.26 10.07 0.57 3.68 0.22 Family background

Lived with both parents until age 15 77.78 0.40 80.96 0.71 75.81 0.47 One parent with a post-secondary degree or higher 54.52 0.50 60.21 0.93 51.00 0.55 Context

Region Ontario 38.80 0.51 45.83 0.97 34.44 0.55

Atlantic 6.80 0.16 6.15 0.30 7.20 0.19 Quebec 22.94 0.41 19.79 0.75 24.89 0.48 Manitoba + Saskatchewan 6.54 0.18 5.85 0.34 6.97 0.21 Alberta 11.51 0.30 8.92 0.53 13.11 0.36 British Columbia 13.42 0.35 13.47 0.69 13.39 0.39

N 15845 3812 12033

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SOURCE: Statistics Canada, 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 15,845 individuals age 18-35 NOTES: Estimates weighted using respondent weight from survey. Estimates appear as percentages unless otherwise specified.

Transitions into independent living

Table 2 presents results from logit models predicting independent living among young

adults related to four sets of covariates. As expected in the first set of hypotheses, young adults'

stages within other life course trajectories were strongly related to their housing situations.

Marital and cohabiting status was by far the most important correlate for independent living,

confirming hypothesis 1a. Rates of living outside the parental home were 29.2 percentage points

higher for married individuals and 36.9 percentage points higher for cohabiting individuals when

compared to otherwise similar never married young adults.2 Children were also associated with

an increase in the probability of independent living by 8.0 percentage points. Importantly,

although marriage, cohabitation, and parenthood drive young adults to find housing outside their

parents' home, many times housing, partnership, and childbearing choices are made together,

which partly explains these strong associations.

Among human capital variables, education level was also associated with independent

living, where individuals with a Bachelor's degree or higher were the most likely to live outside

their parents' homes, as discussed in hypothesis 1b. This reflects the push to leave the parental

home once formal education is completed. However, differences in rates of independent living

were present for only certain categories of employment and enrollment status. In particular,

individuals who were employed and enrolled in school were 4.8 percentage points less likely to

live independently than those who were employed but not enrolled. It appears as though students

2 Estimates presented as average marginal effects, or differences in probability with all covariates averaged across the population.

Maroto & Severson


who were also employed opted to remain within their parental homes, but students without

employment chose to live elsewhere, perhaps even on campus. This difference further shows

how employment and enrollment status together influence choices to leave the parental home.

The results for demographic characteristics in Model 1 support our second hypothesis,

which indicated a relationship between age, gender, and immigrant status with independent

living. Men were less likely to live independently from their parents than women by 2.9

percentage points. Older young adults were more likely to live outside the parental home with

the highest rates of independent living in the 30-35 year age group. First- and second-generation

immigrants were also less likely to live independently than non-immigrants by 8.6 and 6.5

percentage points, which likely reflects different cultural norms surrounding independent living

(Hardie & Seltzer, 2016; Lei & South, 2017).

Family origins and early living situations were also associated with living independently

of parents, as expected in hypothesis 3a. Individuals who did not live with both parents until age

15 were 6.7 percentage points more likely to live independently of their parents during young

adulthood. However, no significant associations between parental education and independent

living appeared once other controls were included in the models.

Table 2. Logistic Regression Results Predicting Independent Living among Young Adults

AME b SE Intercept

-.341** (.129)

Life course transitions Marital Status (Ref: Never married) Married .292 2.781*** (.131)

Cohabiting, not married .369 3.519*** (.164) Formerly married .107 1.019*** (.222)

Any children .080 .767*** (.131) Education level (Ref: BA+)

College/trade diploma or certificate -.063 -.598*** (.097) Some post-secondary -.068 -.651*** (.099) High school diploma -.092 -.874*** (.108)

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Less than high school diploma -.116 -1.106*** (.130) Employment/education status (Ref: Emp, not enrolled)

Not employed, not enrolled .005 .050 (.156) Employed, enrolled -.048 -.461*** (.091) Not employed, enrolled -.005 -.047 (.117) Demographics

Male -.029 -.281*** (.067) Age (Ref: 18-24 years)

25-29 years .117 1.119*** (.081) 30-35 years .191 1.823*** (.096) Immigrant status (Ref: Non-immigrant)

Second generation immigrant -.086 -.819*** (.087) First generation immigrant -.065 -.620*** (.104) Family background

At least one parent with post-secondary degree .004 .041 (.067) Did not live with both parents until age 15 .067 .637*** (.076) Context

Region (Ref: Ontario) Atlantic .041 .393*** (.098)

Quebec .053 .500*** (.087) Manitoba + Saskatchewan .067 .639*** (.109) Alberta .096 .915*** (.109) British Columbia .055 .520*** (.106)

Year (Ref: 2001) Survey year 2006 -.042 -.403*** (.072)

Survey year 2011 -.113 -1.082*** (.083) Pseudo R2 .490

AIC 10833 *** p<.001, ** p<.01, * p<.05

SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 15,845 individuals age 18-35 NOTES: Logit models predicting probability of living independently of parents. All dollar values appear in 2011 Canadian dollars. Continuous variables are mean centered. Standard errors account for clustering by region. Models include sample survey weights and indicators for imputed income. "AME" refers to average marginal effects, which can be interpreted as a percentage point change in the probability of living independently associated with a unit change in the predictor variable.

In addition to these individual-level variables, context presented important associations

with transitions into independent living. Across regions, young adults were the least likely to

have left their parental homes in Ontario with higher rates of independent living in all other

provinces, net of demographics, transitions, and background covariates. This supports our

expectation of variation by region discussed in hypothesis 4b. Additionally, rates of independent

living were 4.2 percentage points lower in 2006 and 11.3 percentage points lower in 2011 when

compared to 2001. This further confirms the trend toward declining rates of independent living

among young adults, predicted by hypothesis 4a.

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To better illustrate trends over time, Figure 2 presents average marginal effects between

covariates and independent living from separate regression models for each year. Referent

groups are the same as those in Table 2. Examining the relationship between predictor variables

and independent living in 2001 and 2011 in Figure 2 shows that most relationships were stable

over time.3 However, small differences appeared in terms of marital status, education level, and

employment/enrollment status. Compared to never-married young adults, married persons were

more likely to live independently by 23.4 percentage points in 2001 -- by 2011 this difference

increased to 27.6 percentage points. The relationship for cohabitation, however, declined. In

2001 cohabiting was associated with an increase in independent living of 39.4 percentage points,

but in 2011 this difference decreased to 32.4 percentage points.

Disparities in independent living by educational level were also much smaller in 2011.

This was most obvious for individuals with less than a high school diploma. In 2001 they were

16.8 percentage points less likely to live independently when compared to individual with a

Bachelor's degree or higher, but in 2011 they were only 8.5 percentage points less likely to live

independently. Finally, employment and enrollment status were weaker predictors of

independent living in 2011. These changing relationships demonstrate how difficulties in leaving

the parental home now extend to young adults with higher education and better employment

situations in addition to less educated young adults.

3 For ease of interpretation, Figure 2 presents results from 2001 and 2011. Detailed results for each year are present in Appendix Table S2.

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Figure 2. Predicted Percentage Point Difference in Living Independently Associated with Key Covariates by Year

SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 15,845 individuals age 18-35 NOTES: Estimates based on results presented in Appendix Table S2. Models include all covariates present in Table 2. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

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Predicted Percentage Point Difference in Living Independently

● 20012011

British Columbia

Alberta

Manitoba + Saskatchewan

Quebec

Atlantic provinces

Not living with parent at 15

Parent with post−secondary

Not employed, enrolled

Employed, enrolled

Not employed, not enrolled

Less than HS diploma

HS diploma

Some post−secondary

College/trade diploma

Children

Formerly married

Cohabiting

Married

First gen immigrant

Second gen immigrant

30−35 years

25−29 years

Male

−20 −10 0 10 20 30 40

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Transitions into homeownership

Table 3 presents results from logit models predicting homeownership among young

adults living independently as related to four sets of covariates. Young adults' stages within other

life course trajectories were also significantly associated with homeownership, as predicted by

hypotheses 1a and 1b. Those who had already transitioned into married or cohabiting

relationships had higher rates of homeownership than never married young adults by 27.0 and

12.5 percentage points, respectively. Children were also associated with increased rates of

homeownership by 7.2 percentage points. Similar to the results for independent living, it is likely

that many young adults made these homeownership and family choices concurrently.

Regarding human capital variables, education was associated with homeownership where

young adults with only a high school diploma were 4.6 percentage points less likely than those

with a Bachelor’s degree or higher to own their homes; those with less than a high school

diploma were 8.4 percentage points less likely. However, no significant differences were present

when comparing young adults with a Bachelor’s or higher to those with some post-secondary

education or a college or a trade school diploma. In this case, obtaining any education beyond

high school was important for homeownership among young adults.

Finally, employment and enrollment status were also associated with homeownership.

Young adults who were not employed and not enrolled in school had rates of homeownership

that were 7.2 percentage points below those who were employed but not enrolled. The

probability of homeownership was also lower by 14.9 and 14.2 percentage points among those

who were employed and enrolled and those who were not employed but enrolled in school. Thus,

both employment and school enrollment factored into homeownership among Canadian young

adults.

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Variation in rates of homeownership was also present across certain groups, as predicted

in hypothesis 2. Among young adults living independently, there were no significant gender

differences in homeownership, after accounting for marital and parental statuses. Age was

positively associated with homeownership; compared to young adults between 18 and 24 years

of age, those in the 25-29 and 30-35 age groups were more likely to own their homes by 7.3 and

17.0 percentage points. Finally, first-generation immigrants were less likely to own their homes

than non-immigrants by 13.9 percentage points, but few differences appeared between non-

immigrants and second-generation immigrants, indicating a closing of the homeownership gap

among second-generation immigrant young adults living independently of their parents.

Family background was also associated with homeownership, but the results only

supported hypothesis 3b in relation to family structure at age 15. Individuals who did not live

with both parents until age 15 were 4.9 percentage points less likely to be homeowners.

Interestingly, parental education was not associated with homeownership, net of other covariates.

This finding was surprising, but additional analyses show that is likely due to the relationship

between parents' and children's education levels, which are already accounted for within the

models.

Table 3. Logistic Regression Results Predicting Homeownership among Young Adults Living Independently of Parents

AME b SE Intercept

-.996*** (.123)

Life course transitions Marital Status (Ref: Never married) Married .270 1.406*** (.073)

Cohabiting, not married .125 .650*** (.073) Formerly married .034 .176 (.143)

Any children .072 .373*** (.062) Education level (Ref: BA+)

College/trade diploma or certificate .019 .097 (.066) Some post-secondary -.025 -.128 (.086) High school diploma -.046 -.240** (.089)

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Less than high school diploma -.084 -.437*** (.110) Employment/education status (Ref: Emp, not enrolled)

Not employed, not enrolled -.072 -.377*** (.090) Employed, enrolled -.149 -.778*** (.133) Not employed, enrolled -.142 -.740*** (.181) Demographics

Male -.012 -.065 (.055) Age (Ref: 18-24 years)

25-29 years .073 .381*** (.085) 30-35 years .170 .885*** (.085) Immigrant status (Ref: Non-immigrant)

Second generation immigrant -.008 -.043 (.076) First generation immigrant -.139 -.723*** (.083) Family background

At least one parent with post-secondary degree -.005 -.024 (.056) Did not live with both parents until age 15 -.049 -.253*** (.060) Context

Region (Ref: Ontario) Atlantic -.013 -.067 (.080)

Quebec -.068 -.354*** (.075) Manitoba + Saskatchewan .062 .323*** (.094) Alberta .026 .135 (.088) British Columbia -.052 -.269** (.088)

Year (Ref: 2001) Survey year 2006 .062 .323*** (.057)

Survey year 2011 .104 .544*** (.068) Pseudo R2 .172

AIC 13706 *** p<.001, ** p<.01, * p<.05

SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 12,033 individuals age 18-35 living independently of parents NOTES: Logit models predicting probability of homeownership. All dollar values appear in 2011 Canadian dollars. Continuous variables are mean centered. Standard errors account for clustering by region. Models include sample survey weights and an indicator variable for respondents with imputed income. "AME" refers to average marginal effects, which can be interpreted as a percentage point change in the probability of living independently associated with a unit change in the predictor variable.

After leaving the parental home, young adults make tenure choices within the socio-

spatial context. The results showing that transitions into homeownership varied across regions

and over time support this point. Compared to Ontario, living in Quebec or British Columbia was

associated with lower rates of homeownership, but young adults living in Manitoba or

Saskatchewan were more likely to be homeowners, again supporting hypothesis 4b. Differences

between Ontario, Alberta, and the Atlantic provinces, however, were not statistically significant.

Additionally, the likelihood of homeownership among independent young adults increased over

time, improving by 6.2 percentage points in 2006 and 10.4 percentage points in 2011, which did

Maroto & Severson


not support our expectation in hypothesis 4a or findings present in other international housing

research.

Expanding the focus on context, we also examined how relationships between predictor

variables and homeownership changed over time. The results of models for 2001 and 2011 are

illustrated in Figure 3, which presents the predicted percentage point difference in rates of

homeownership.4 Similar to the outcome of independent living, transition and group

demographic variables presented stable relationships with homeownership over time with a few

exceptions. Notably, homeownership gaps by education level increased between 2001 and 2011.

For instance, in 2001, no significant differences were present between young adults with a

Bachelor’s degree or higher and those with a high school diploma or less education. In 2011,

however, young adults with a high school diploma or less were 13.5-15.9 percentage points less

likely to own their homes than those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher. Age differences were

also less apparent in 2011.

4 For ease of interpretation, Figure 3 presents results from 2001 and 2011. Detailed results for each year are present in Appendix Table S3.

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Independent Living and homeownership in context

To better depict changes by time and region, Figure 4 plots the predicted probability of

independent living and homeownership by year and region based on the results from Tables 2

Figure 3. Predicted Percentage Point Difference in Homeownership Associated with Key Covariates by Year

SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 12,033 individuals age 18-35 living independently of parents NOTES: Estimates based on results presented in Appendix Table S3. Models include all covariates present in Table 3. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

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Predicted Percentage Point Difference in Homeownership

● 20012011

British Columbia

Alberta

Manitoba + Saskatchewan

Quebec

Atlantic provinces

Not living with parent at 15

Parent with post−secondary

Not employed, enrolled

Employed, enrolled

Not employed, not enrolled

Less than HS diploma

HS diploma

Some post−secondary

College/trade diploma

Children

Formerly married

Cohabiting

Married

First gen immigrant

Second gen immigrant

30−35 years

25−29 years

Male

−20 −10 0 10 20 30 40

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and 3. Instead of simply presenting estimates for the average individual in Figure 4, we present

values based on the average levels of all covariates for the specific region or year. Thus,

Figure 4. Predicted Probability of Young Adults Living Independently and Owning Homes by Year and Region

SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 15,845 individuals age 18-35 NOTES: Estimates based on results in Tables 2 and 3 separated by year and region. All model covariates set at means for the specified year or region. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

2001 2006 2011

Pred

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ON Atlantic QC MN+SK AB BC

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Homeownership by Region

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estimates are for the average young adult living in that region or year. This helps to demonstrate

how changing characteristics of the population are also associated with trends over time.

The trends in independent living and homeownership for the average young adult in

Figure 4 mirror many of the overarching trends from Figure 1. We still see declining rates of

independent living and, among those who have left the parental home, increasing rates of

homeownership in almost all regions after accounting for changes in other covariates. However,

rates for the average young adult were somewhat higher in Figure 4 and several trend differences

stood out.

After accounting for demographics, life course transitions, and family background,

housing transitions among young adults still varied across contexts. Average rates of

independent living decreased over time, but declines were not as steep once changes in

transitions and demographics were considered. With all covariates held at their yearly means, the

predicted probability of living independently for the average young adult was 86% in 2001, 84%

in 2006, and 80% in 2011, as shown in the top-left panel of Figure 4. Over this same period,

homeownership rates increased for youth who had left their parents' homes. The corresponding

predicted probabilities of homeownership among youth living independently were 48%, 58%,

and 68%, as shown in the top-right panel.

Rates of independent living and homeownership also varied across regions in the bottom

panels of Figure 4. Predicted probabilities of independent living for the average young adult

were high in most regions at approximately 89%, with Ontario standing out with a lower rate of

74%. Homeownership differences were more apparent in the bottom right panel. The lowest

predicted rates of homeownership were present in Quebec (42%) followed by BC (49%), Ontario

Maroto & Severson


(58%), and the Atlantic provinces (58%). Predicted rates were highest in the Prairie provinces

(66% and 71%). Thus, these results further emphasize how context matters for young adults'

housing trajectories where varying outcomes across regions were likely associated with different

housing markets and the cost of living.

Discussion

Several clear patterns emerge when looking at the housing situations of young adult

Canadians from 2001 to 2011. At the national level, fewer young adults lived independently in

2011 than they did in 2001 and 2006, which is tied to the broader economic context and its

consequences for other life course trajectories. However, homeownership rates have risen among

Canadian young adults who have left parental homes in clear contrast to situations in other high-

income countries (Beer et al., 2011; McKee, 2012; Ronald & Lennartz, 2018). Instead of

becoming a generation of renters like young adults in the United States and Europe, Canadian

young adults are choosing to remain in their parental homes longer, likely waiting until

homeownership becomes a viable option. Thus, by studying young adult home-leaving and

homeownership together, we are able to highlight how these transitions are linked to each other,

as well as broader life course transitions, individual demographics, and economic context.

Context, measured as time and place, has a significant impact on both leaving the

parental home and predicting homeownership. As Mulder and Clark (2000) similarly

demonstrated in the United States, areas characterized by high home prices, mainly Ontario and

British Columbia in Canada, had much lower rates of home-leaving and homeownership. Similar

to other Anglophone countries, homeownership is a normalized goal in Canada (Grant & Scott,

2012), but, whereas other Anglophone countries are finding decreasing rates of homeownership

among young adults (McKee, 2012; Mackie, 2016), rates of homeownership among independent

Maroto & Severson


young adults have increased in Canada. This comes at the same time as housing costs have

increased and rates of independent living have decreased. Overall, this suggests that housing

norms may be having an important influence on young adults’ housing circumstances, which

cannot be fully captured in this data (Ronald, 2008).

Examining the situations of young adults in Canada since 2001, it is clear that the

housing transitions of young adults are intimately linked to other life course transitions (Elder,

1994; Macmillan, 2005). Echoing earlier findings from Clark (2007) and Turcotte (2007a,

2007b), we show that employment status, education, and marital status are still significant factors

in predicting home-leaving and homeownership. The strong positive association between living

independently, homeownership, and marital status suggests that relationship transitions are still a

motivating force to move out of the parental home and into homeownership where these

transitions often occur concomitantly (Clark & Mulder, 2000; Mulder, 2006, 2013). The

changing relationship with education level over time also suggests that it is becoming even more

necessary to share resources within household relationships to live independently from parents.

As with the other factors in the transition to adulthood, there is a continuing disparity

between young adults who are able to leave their parental home and those who cannot. Young

adults who live independently tend to have higher education levels, are more likely to be

employed and not in school, and are more likely to be in conjugal relationships. This group is

also the most poised to enter the housing market as homeowners. Because homeowners build

equity when home prices rise, the gap between those who have left home and those who have not

will continue to widen, making it more difficult for those who leave home later to catch up. As

housing conditions variably impact different socioeconomic status groups, they also contribute to

the rising inequality in the transition to adulthood (Benson & Furstenberg, 2006; Clark, 2007;

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Furstenberg, 2010; Shanahan, 2000), particularly along tenure lines, as found in other high-

income countries (McKee, 2012; Mackie, 2016; Beer et al., 2011).

The rising affordability problem in Canada has led to an increasing policy focus on the

housing market and young adults at the federal and provincial levels. In October 2016, the

federal government introduced changes to the mortgage industry to limit the risk exposure

should interest rates rise, including increasing the interest rate at which low-ratio mortgages must

qualify under (Department of Finance, 2016). The Ontario government also doubled the land

transfer tax rebate for first-time homeowners in November 2016 in an effort to reduce added

homeownership costs (Ministry of Finance, 2016). Significantly, most of these responses focus

on homeownership only, with limited emphasis on rented housing, the typical first step for young

adults leaving their parental homes (Kendig, 1990).

Most recently, the Canadian federal government released the National Housing Strategy

in November 2017 (Government of Canada, 2017). The National Housing Strategy is the first

comprehensive national housing policy over 30 years and represents a key turning point for

housing policy in Canada, which was previously more market driven. This strategy prioritizes

vulnerable groups and young adults due to the increasing housing challenges they face.

Specifically, the Affordable Housing Initiative focuses on increasing the supply of purpose-built

rental housing for young professionals. However, as this research has demonstrated, the housing

transitions of young adults are influenced by a variety of factors beyond supply.

For policy to be effective at addressing young adults’ housing challenges, it must also

address the interconnected transitions influencing young adults’ housing circumstances,

particularly education and employment, rather than housing supply or financing alone. Research

from the UK and Australia on housing aspirations highlights the importance of understanding

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housing preferences and expectations for housing policy (Burke et al., 2007; ECOTEC, 2009).

The increasing rate of homeownership for Canadian independent young adults suggests that this

tenure may be becoming increasingly normative in an already normative environment (Grant &

Scott, 2012).

Despite the contributions of our study, the available data create certain limitations. The

GSS Family PUMFs compress certain variables, including personal income, and limit access to

other location-based variables. For future studies in this area, using confidential or geocoded

GSS Family data would allow for a more detailed contextual analysis that incorporates local

housing, economic, and political factors. Temporality is also a key limitation in this study, as we

are unable to follow individuals throughout their housing and life course transitions. Other

researchers have recognized temporality as an issue in life course and housing studies, which is

why longitudinal or retrospective life history surveys are often used in these studies. The lack of

longitudinal data in Canada limits options for such analyses but using additional waves of the

GSS data to study trends could help to further illustrate these connections between housing and

the life course.

Additionally, the quantitative models run in this study do not account for social norms

and perceptions regarding the transition to adulthood and housing choices. Qualitative and

quantitative data can be combined to produce more nuanced analyses (Benson & Furstenberg,

2006). Future housing studies and policy would therefore benefit from more qualitative data that

explores these social norms, perceptions, and values behind the transition to adulthood and

housing choices more broadly.

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Conclusion

Building off an increasing amount of international literature highlighting the housing

challenges of young adults and using a life course perspective, this research provides an

important contribution toward understanding the changing connections between housing and

other life course transitions for young adults within a rapidly changing housing market. Our

results emphasize how these transitions vary in relation to individual-level characteristics, family

background, and trajectories of employment, education, relationships, and parenthood (Clark,

2007; Furstenberg, 2010; Mulder, 2006, 2013; Turcotte 2007a, 2007b). We demonstrate that

while most relationships between key life course transitions and housing remain stable, the

impact of these relationships varies over time and geography. Furthermore, we show that, in

addition to individual-level factors, the broader housing context is associated with young adults'

transitions out of the parental home and into homeownership. Housing market trends, along with

increased education, more precarious employment, and later unions, correspond to changes in the

transition to adulthood with later and more variable paths for young adults (Clark, 2007;

Furstenberg, 2010; Shanahan, 2000).

Our findings also illustrate growing inequalities between young adults who are able to

leave their parental home and those who cannot, and between tenants and homeowners, with

important repercussions on lifetime wealth inequalities within an asset-based welfare regime

(McKee, 2012). This is reflective of international research, particularly in an Anglo-context

(McKee, 2012; Mackie, 2016; Beer et al., 2011). In contrast to the experiences of other

Anglophone countries, such as the UK and Australia, we find increasing rates of homeownership

among young adults living independently of their parents. This demonstrates a unique experience

for Canadian young adults compared to their international counterparts and highlights the

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importance of studying home-leaving and homeownership together. Finally, we demonstrate the

continued utility of the life course perspective for housing research as it connects multiple

trajectories, multiple levels of analysis, and multiple times periods in helping to explain housing

transitions among Canadian young adults (Elder, 1994; Macmillan, 2005; Mayer, 2004, 2009;

McDaniel & Bernard, 2011).

Maroto & Severson


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Figure 1. Percentage of Young Adults Living Independently and Owning Homes by Region and Year

SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 15,845 individuals age 18-35 NOTES: Estimates include sample survey weights. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Figure 2. Predicted Percentage Point Difference in Living Independently Associated

with Key Covariates by Year SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 15,845 individuals age 18-35 NOTES: Estimates based on results presented in Appendix Table S2. Models include all covariates present in Table 2. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Figure 3. Predicted Percentage Point Difference in Homeownership Associated with

Key Covariates by Year SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 12,033 individuals age 18-35 living independently of parents NOTES: Estimates based on results presented in Appendix Table S3. Models include all covariates present in Table 3. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Figure 4. Predicted Probability of Young Adults Living Independently and Owning

Homes by Year and Region SOURCE: 2001-2011 Pooled GSS, N = 15,845 individuals age 18-35 NOTES: Estimates based on results in Tables 2 and 3 separated by year and region. All model covariates set at means for the specified year or region. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

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