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Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M:...

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Stabilization Measures KPMG Commentary March 26, 2020 A Big Response
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Page 1: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

Stabilization Measures

KPMG Commentary—March 26, 2020

A Big Response

Page 2: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary2

ForewordUnprecedented times!

Across the globe countries are taking extreme and important measures to protect public health, slow the spread of the virus, calm public concerns, and bolster economies. Many different tools and mechanisms are being employed to protect workers, fight the economic disruption caused by COVID-19, and reduce business stress. The economic measures and the speed with which they are implemented will have profound impact on the global economies, and indeed Barbados is no different.

The Prime Minister of Barbados has been swift to act to implement stabilization measures which may very well become a lifeline for many Barbadians. It is indeed expected that further measures will be put forward as the impact of this global crisis becomes apparent.

Businesses and individuals are being asked to play their part to stem the impact of the health crisis, and from an economic perspective much more will be asked in the upcoming months to ensure that Barbados does not fall full victim to the negative global fallout.

The Prime Minister in her address to Barbados indicated that prior to the spread of COVID-19 and fear-driven panic around the world, the Barbados economy was expected to grow by roughly 1.5% in 2020, predicated on another 3% pick up in tourist arrivals and broad-based recovery in the other sectors including construction. Government now expects the impact to the Barbados economy to be primarily through the virus’ impact on global travel with a significant decrease in tourist arrivals, leading to a sharp decline in economic activity and resulting in drastically reduced government tax revenues which are used primarily to fund the civil service and social programs in addition to a slower accumulation of international reserves than currently projected as the baseline under the BERT – IMF EFF* supported program.

Barbados will continue to punch above its weight and the Prime Minister has committed to Government making “the necessary adjustment in this coming year to prepare the country for this unprecedented shock from COVID-19 while ensuring that we stay the course, remaining fully committed to our BERT program of economic growth and transformation”.

Here at home, while we secure our businesses we will need to focus on our people and the careful management of enforcement procedures, paying particular attention to caring for our vulnerable and elderly. We wish you all well.

• Barbados Economic Recovery Transformation- International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility (BERT – IMF EFF)

• All figures quoted in this document are in Barbados dollars except where noted

Please do not hesitate to contact us should you require clarification on any of the matters discussed in this document.

Christopher BromePartner, Advisory, Head of Markets T: +1 246 434 3907M: +1 246 243 8709E: [email protected]

Michael Edghill Partner, Head of AuditT: +1 246 434 3900M: +1 246 231 1111E: [email protected]

Louisa Lewis- WardPartner, Head of TaxT: +1 246 434 3941M: +1 246 231 0348E: [email protected]

Lisa Taylor Managing Partner T: +1 246 434 3915M: +1 246 233 5703E: [email protected]

Page 3: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

Impact and Stabilization

“With a reduction in tax revenues, Barbadians will bring ingenuity and resilience to the fore to weather what will be a protracted road to economic recovery.

Louisa Lewis-WardPartner, Head of Tax

Page 4: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

- Companies - Individuals

Page 5: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary5

NIS Deferral - Employers who are retaining more than [three quarters/two-thirds] of their staff complement will be able to defer the employer’s contributions to the NIS for the next three months in the first instance, with another three months if necessary.

Bank Financing - All banks have agreed to provide temporary working-capital financing options for corporate and small businesses directly impacted by COVID-19.

Government has projected that the fall in economic activity will negatively affect the profit streams of corporations, the demand for properties and increased compliance issues.

It is expected that corporation taxes and property taxes will be lower than were initially projected by between $19 million and $27.6 million, and between $8 million and $11.4 million, respectively.

Post Covid-19

Stabilization measures

Jobs, Investment and Business Survival program - Government is engaged with the private sector on a major Jobs, Investment and Business Survival program which will aim to:

— facilitate businesses to use the pause in activity to upskill and invest to come back stronger

— encourage banks to defer loan payments for businesses that get into short-term difficulty as a result of COVID-19; and

— ensure the early start, resumption or continuation of up to $1 billion of private sector investments.

Stabilization measures

Government in late 2018 and into 2019 embarked ona series of adjustments to the Barbados tax platformwhich resulted in a reduction in the corporate taxrates from 5.5% to 1%. Inflows at the end ofFebruary 2020, averaged $220 million.

Pre Covid-19

Companies

2020 Corporate tax rates (non insurance)

Taxable income - $0 - $1 million 5.5%Taxable income - $1 - $20 million 3.0%Taxable income - $20 - $30 million 2.5%Taxable income - Over $30 million 1.0%

Page 6: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary6

NIS support – Government will provide supplemental support to the NIS Unemployment Fund as needed and within the context of available fiscal space.

Unemployment benefits – Those who are laid off fully will receive unemployment benefits for six months and those on short weeks will receive 60% for the days they are not working.

Bank Financing – all commercial banks have agreed to a six-month payment moratorium on existing loans and mortgages for persons and businesses directly impacted by COVID-19.

“Homes For All” Program – Government is to use $50 million in the Housing Credit Fund to unlock a further $200 million of financing from the banks to help over 1,000 households construct and own an affordable home. The project is projected to start in three months and is initially targeted at persons with an household income of $4,000 per month.

Government projects that tax revenues will be lower by between $157 million to $240 million depending on the severity of the impact of COVID-19 on economic activity.

Personal income taxes are expected to be less than originally projected by between $25 million and $38 million, as a result of possible job losses and shorter working hours in the services sector.

Post Covid-19

Stabilization measures

Household Survival Program – Implement a Household Survival Program (injecting $20 million) consisting of three initiatives to assist displaced workers. Those being laid off are entitled to unemployment benefits.

Welfare Support – Where, as a result of COVID-19, a household is left with no person employed, Government will provide a minimum income for those households and make available through the Welfare Department an amount up to $600 per month during this period of hardship.

Adopt-a-Family Program – Government is working with persons who have been fortunate to be earning more than $100,000 a year to adopt a vulnerable family and provide them with very much needed support of $600 per month or to contribute to an Adopt-a-family fund chaired by the Director of Finance.

Stabilization measures

A shift in corporate tax rates was matched with a lowering of the personal income tax rates applicable to individuals.

Pre Covid-19

Individuals

Personal Income tax rates

Taxable income up to $50,000 12.5%Taxable income over $50,000 28.5%Personal Allowance - $25,000

Page 7: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

- Social Care - Tourism- Construction- Agriculture

Page 8: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary8

Social Care – Stabilization Measures

QEH and polyclinics - An additional $40 million will be made available to refurbish the QEH and local polyclinics with critical equipment and any supplementary goods needed to manage and contain the spread of the virus.

Hospital equipment - Of the above noted $40 million, $32.5 million is expected to be capital spending for the purchase of ventilators, beds etc. while the remaining $7.5 million assumed to be spent on restocking medication as well as other medical supplies. Orders have already been placed for $19 million in equipment and medical supplies for QEH.

Quarantine and isolation facility - Another $20 million in capital expenditure is needed for the constructing and outfitting of a quarantine and isolation facility at Harrison’s Point in the north of the country. This facility is already under renovation.

Health Care

School repairs - Carry out urgently needed repairs to schools to the tune of $25 million, which will build capacity for disaster preparedness, including the coming hurricane season.

School meals facility - In addition, Government is working to complete the construction of the school meals building at Six Roads at a cost of $6 million to enhance the ability to provide food either to schools or communities as needed.

Schools

Government building repairs - Carry out much needed repairs on selected government buildings at a cost of $20 million.

Repairs to the Industrial Complex - Carry out repairs to the Industrial Development Complex buildings which house mechanics and entrepreneurs at a cost of $10 million.

Energy/Oil Prices - Support and facilitate the Barbados National Oil Company Limited (BNOCL) and Barbados Light and Power Company Limited (BL&P) in engaging in a hedging exercise to lock in the currently low oil price for a period of up to two years.

Infrastructure

Capital Projects - Fast track a number of government capital projects already funded by the Caribbean Development Bank:

— the $6.5 million, Speightstown Flood Mitigation Project

— the $10.2 million Constitution River Flood Mitigation Project, and

— the Fairchild Street, rehabilitation project ($4.6 million).

Infrastructure

Page 9: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary9

The Prime Minister indicated that there were signs of positive growth in the tourism sector in the second half of 2019. The tourism sector expanded by around 3%, reflecting the sustained marketing efforts in Barbados’ key source markets, along with increased airlift capacity.

The reduction in tourist arrivals is expected to impact those revenues that have been earmarked for a number of State Owned Enterprises and Agencies namely, the Airline Travel and Tourism Development Fee, as well as the Health Service Levy whose receipts are used to finance both the BTMI as well as the QEH.

Loss in revenues related to these taxes is likely to total $29.3 million to $41.5 million. While these revenues do not impact on budgeted receipts, they will impact transfers to public institutions as government will now have to provide these amounts to the respective SOEs to cover their operational expenses.*

*Extract

Tourism – Pre Covid-19

Marketing initiatives - In the tourism sector Government will work with the BTMI to develop an enhanced marketing and airlift support plan to quick return visitors to the island at the end of the crisis.

Staff training - The National Training Initiative will refocus its efforts on the most vulnerable tourism and related sectors and will work with these sectors to best incorporate additional training with short-week initiatives.

Other measures having a direct impact on companies and individuals - In addition the measures which impact companies and individuals directly will be applied within the tourism sector.

Tourism - Stabilization measures

Sector Driven Incentives - Tourism

Page 10: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary10

Increased construction activity on small projects and other medium-scale commercial ventures partially offset the absence of major tourism-related projects in the current period.

Government continues to work to improve the timeliness of the planning approval process and has sought to work with large developers to ensure the commencement of large scale projects in 2020.

Construction – Pre Covid-19

The Government is working with private investors on a range of series of renewable energy investments including a $300 million Green Energy Park that is expected to be launched in three months.

Construction - Stabilization measures

Sector Driven Incentives - Construction & Agriculture

Food output increased by about 3% despite persistent drought conditions which suppressed production in other non-sugar agriculture output such chicken and milk production.

Agriculture – Pre Covid-19

Government will seek to rapidly bring into cultivation 750 acres of land for short crop cultivation.

This measure is intended not only to boost employment and support our longer-term goals to enhance food security and improve linkages between the tourism and agricultural sectors, it is also intended to most importantly boost Barbados’ reserves at a critical moment by reducing food imports.

Agriculture – Stabilization measures

Project Value (in millions)

Started Projects:Sam Lord's Castle $400Ape's Hill Golf Course - Improvements $20The Crane Not quantif iedSub total (A) $420

Project Value (in millions)

Projects to be started:Expansion of Sandals Dover $60Indigo redevelopment of the old Caribee Hotel

$150

Royalton redevelopment of the old Discovery Bay Hotel

$200

Sagicor Retirement Villages project $200Hyatt Ziva Project $400Sub total (B) $1,010Total (A+B) $1,430

Page 11: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

Economic Overview

Page 12: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary12

Economic OverviewOverview

The economy of Barbados is primarily dependent on the tourism and financial services sectors. Government, after consultation with the tourism industry, arrived at two scenarios:

— A moderate scenario that assumes global containment efforts prove successful in the next six months and results in a 50% decline in total visitor arrivals to Barbados over the six-month period; and

— A more severe scenario where the global effects of the virus results in an 80% decline in total visitor arrivals to Barbados over the same six-month period

Using these scenarios, if the Government were to do nothing to stimulate the economy, the direct effects on the hotel and restaurant sector along with the indirect effects on the retail, transport and other business services sectors, will lead to between a 4.2% to 8.3% decline in real growth in 2020. (extract)

GDP growth

The tourism and financial services sectors contribution to the 2019 nominal GDP amounted to 13.5% and 26.7% respectively.

In the recent past, overall economic activity has been subdued, primarily due to the delays in the start of private sector investment projects and low levels of public sector capital spending, together with low consumer spending. The impact of Covid-19 will further depress economic activity and inhibit GDP.

Source: Central Bank of Barbados, IMF

Inflation

Average consumer prices increased from 3.7% in 2018 to 4.1% in 2019, despite decreasing international energy prices and stable food prices. As per the Central Bank of Barbados, the surge in inflation rate was due to the drought conditions on non-sugar agriculture, the influx of sargassum seaweed on fish catches and increase in fees on certain services offered by state-owned enterprises. It is expected that there could be an increase in inflation as a result of Covid-19.

Unemployment

The average unemployment rate remained flat at 10.1% as of December 2019. Public sector lay-offs and slow private sector activity contributed to the high unemployment rate. Government has begun to implement new measures to manage Covid-19 related unemployment. It is expected that there could be a sharp increase in unemployment should this impact be prolonged.

Source: Central Bank of Barbados

Source: Central Bank of Barbados

0.0%

2.4% 2.6%

0.6%

-0.4%-0.1%

0.6%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020P

1.8%

-1.1%

1.5%

4.5%3.7% 4.1%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E

12.3%11.3%

9.7% 10.0% 10.1% 10.1%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E

Page 13: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary13

Public sector debt (cont.)

Depending on the long term impact of Covid-19 these expectations will need to be revised.

Foreign exchange reserves

Gross foreign exchange reserves saw a significant improvement in 2018 and 2019, primarily due to the borrowing from the international financial institutions and the savings from suspension of the commercial external debt payments. Reserve levels reached USD$740 million or $1.5 billion by end of 2019 (an import reserve cover 18.7 weeks). This increases Barbados’ ability to absorb the reduction in GDP growth and reserves.

Fiscal balance

Barbados recorded a fiscal surplus of USD$157 million or $314 million (3.0% of GDP) for the nine months ending December 2019, compared to USD$37 million or $74 million (0.7% of GDP) for the same period in 2018. This significant improvement is largely due to the impact of spending reforms, improved revenue collection and cost savings from the debt restructure. Government is estimating the surplus of 2019 could now reduce to half of that performance or 3% of the primary surplus.

Public sector debt

Total gross public sector debt as a percentage of GDP amounted to 148.4% by the end of 2017. Since then, it has decreased to 119.5% by the end of 2019. This is primarily due to the suspension of commercial external government debt payments and the restructuring of domestic debt.

Based on the GOB’s indications, it was anticipated that by 2025, the level of debt to GDP will be down to approximately 100% and subsequently, is anticipated to reach a more comfortable and sustainable state of approximately 60% by 2033.

Source: Central Bank of Barbados

Source: Central Bank of Barbados

Source: Central Bank of Barbados

-7.6%-9.0%

-5.3% -4.6%

-0.3%

0.7%

3.0%

-12.0%

-8.0%

-4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18P 2018/19E Apr-Dec2018

Apr-Dec2019

151.2% 148.4%126.3% 119.5%

100.0%

60.0%

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-25 Dec-33

11.6 11.2

8.2 5.3

12.9

18.7

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

-

200

400

600

800

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E

in U

S$ m

illio

n

Foreign exchange reservesForeign exchange reserves, cover weeks

Page 14: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary14

Developments – Pre Covid-19

Debt restructure

The GOB in June 2018 announced its intention to restructure its public debt (both BBD and USD denominated) by way of a “Debt Exchange Programme.”

On September 7, 2018, the GOB announced an exchange offer for holders of BBD denominated debt as part of its Debt Exchange Programme. The domestic debt restructuring involved exchanging existing BBD denominated T-bills, bonds and loans for new BBD denominated instruments, with extended maturities and lower coupon rates in the near term with increases in the later years, but with no principal reductions. The BBD denominated exchange offer estimated at approximately USD$5.95 billion was successfully completed in November 2018.

On October 18, 2019, it was announced that the GOB reached an agreement with regard to the restructuring of its USD denominated commercial debt. On November 9, 2019, the actual offer for the exchange of this debt was launched. Under this arrangement, foreign bond holders will be provided with new bonds to replace their current instruments. These new bonds will carry revised face values, coupon rates and maturity dates. This Debt Exchange Programme is anticipated to result in Barbados moving toward its target of reducing its public debt to GDP to the desirable level of 60% and is also anticipated to result in a further re-assessment of the credit rating for Barbados. These developments are expected to lead to an improvement in investor confidence, which will contribute to the overall recovery of the economy.

BERT

Concurrent to the Debt Exchange Programme, the GOB announced a comprehensive economic reform program titled the “Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan” or BERT. BERT aims to restore macroeconomic stability and place the economy of Barbados on a path of strong, sustainable and inclusive growth.

The reform program is expected to be conducted via a three-phase approach:

Phase 1 - Review of tax revenue, the imposition of new domestic and international user fees, the removal of three statutory corporations from the Consolidated Fund, greater tax compliance, and a broadening of the tax base on overseas visitors.

Phase 2 - Focus on expenditure reduction on Central Government and State-Owned Enterprises; review of the framework within which the country’s International business sector will operate; and deliver a program of measures intended to stimulate growth.

Phase 3 - Continuation of the review of all remaining State-Owned Enterprises and departments of Government. Determination of what expenditure is essential, what is highly desirable and what is optional.

Phases 1 and 2 of BERT were completed in 2019 and Phase 3 is currently underway. As per the fourth public report by the BERT monitoring committee, all fiscal targets up to September 2019 were met. It further adds, that the GOB has made a solid start on its requirement of increasing the primary balance to a surplus of 6.0% of GDP in 2019/20, with actual results for the first six months of the fiscal year exceeding the interim target by a wide margin mainly as a result of expenditure control.

Page 15: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary15

IMF program

In July 2018, the newly elected GOB invited the IMF for discussions on IMF financial support for the GOB and the BERT. After the successful discussion, the Executive Board of the IMF on October 1, 2018, approved a four-year Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (“EFF”) for Barbados for an amount equivalent to Special Drawing Right (“SDR”) $208 million (about UDS$290 million, or 220% of Barbados’ quota in the IMF). The EFF-supported program aims to help Barbados: restore debt sustainability, strengthen the external position, restore investor confidence and improve growth prospects.

Following the IMF approval of the EFF, both the Caribbean Development Bank (“CDB”) and the Inter-American Development Bank (“IADB”) approved policy-based loans. These loans helped Barbados rebuild reserves, and supported the reform process.

In December 2019, the Executive Board of the IMF completed the second review of Barbados’ economic reform program supported by an arrangement under the EFF. The completion of the review allowed the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR $35 million (about USD$48 million), bringing total disbursements to the equivalent of SDR $105 million (about USD$145 million).

Credit rating

Both Standard and Poor’s (“S&P”) and Moody's upgraded their Barbados local currency issuer ratings, as a result of the successful completion of the local component of the Debt Exchange Programme and the significant improvement in the macroeconomic stability.

The table below highlights the positive change in the ratings for local debt following the commencement of the Debt Exchange Programme in September 2018.

Similar to the local currency rating, the Barbados foreign currency rating too saw an upgrade. In December 2019, S&P raised its long-term and short-term foreign currency ratings from ‘SD/SD’ to ‘B-/B’ and assigned its ‘B-’ foreign currency issue rating to foreign currency debt delivered as part of the Debt Exchange Programme.

S&P Moody’sDate Rating Date RatingNov – 2018 B/B- Jul – 2019 Caa1Aug – 2018 SD Mar – 2017 Caa3Jun – 2018 CC Apr – 2016 Caa1Sep – 2017 CCCMar – 2017 CCC+

Page 16: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary16

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150+Professionals

KPMG in Barbados and in the Eastern Caribbean form part of the international network of member firms comprised of over 219,000 professionals in the member firms worldwide which collaborate across industry, service and national boundaries to deliver professional services in 147 countries for the benefit of their clients, KPMG people and the capital markets.

Member firms are located in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (also practising in Anguilla, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis).Our practice has strongprofessional contacts with the KPMG member firms in the Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, the Dutch Caribbean (practising in Cuba, Suriname and St. Maarten), Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and Turks & Caicos Islands, all of which have similar cultures and operating environments.

KPMG’s offices in Barbados and in the Eastern Caribbean operate across the region with a specific understanding of the cultural, economic and political facets of each individual economy. In-depth industry knowledge is available through the global KPMG network which provides access to skilled member firm professionals, across a wide range of industry sectors.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

Celebrating,

40+ yearsof service

70% | 30%Gender split (F | M)

Page 17: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary17

Audit and Assurance

• Statutory audit

• Non-statutory audit

• Assurance

Tax

• Tax advisory

• Personal and corporate tax

• International tax

• M&A tax

• Transfer pricing

• Tax due diligence

TaxAudit

Advisory

Management Consulting

• Customer and operations

• IT advisory

• People and change

• Internal audit risk and compliance

• Accounting advisory

Deal Advisory

• Corporate finance

• Restructuring

• Transaction services

Our Services

KPMG in Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

Page 18: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary18

Our leadership teamAudit

Tax

Advisory

Michael Edghill Head of AuditM: +1 246 231 1111E: [email protected]

Carol Nicholls Senior Partner M: +1 246 243 5696E: [email protected]

Andrew Brathwaite Partner, AuditM: +1 246 230 8188E: [email protected]

Lisa Brathwaite Partner, AuditM: +1 246 233 6526E: [email protected]

Louisa Lewis-Ward Partner, TaxM: +1 246 231 0348E: [email protected]

Lisa Taylor Managing Partner M: +1 246 233 5703E: [email protected]

Christopher Brome Partner, Advisory M: +1 246 243 8709E: [email protected]

Craig Waterman Partner, AdvisoryM: +1 246 230 4147E: [email protected]

Brian GlasgowPartner, AdvisoryM: +1 784 493 9864E: [email protected]

People Performance and Culture

Myrleen SewittDirector, People Performance and CultureM: +1 246 233 6527E: [email protected]

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

Baldwin AlcindorPartner, AuditM: +1 758 728 9200E: [email protected]

Advisory

Melanie Greenidge Director,AdvisoryM: +1 246 253 4733E: [email protected]

Dave CollinsDirector,AdvisoryM: +1 246 230 5655E: [email protected]

Page 19: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

KPMG 2020 Commentary19

Glossary % Percentage

000’s Thousands

BBD Barbados dollar

BERT Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation

BRA Barbados Revenue AuthorityBTMI Barbados Tourism Marketing Inc.

BWA Barbados Water Authority

CDB Caribbean Development Bank

COVID-19 Coronavirus disease

E Estimated

EU European Union

GOB Government of Barbados

GDP Gross Domestic Product

IDB Inter-American Development Bank

IMF International Monetary Fund

NIS National Insurance Scheme

NSRL National Social Responsibility Levy

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

QEH Queen Elizabeth Hospital

SOE State Owned EnterpriseSSA Sanitation Service Authority

sq. ft. Square foot

S&P Standard and Poor's

USD United States dollar

VAT Value Added Tax

YoY Year-on-Year

Page 20: Stabilization Measures: A Big Response Comment… · Partner, Head of Audit. T: +1 246 434 3900. M: +1 . 246 231 1111. E: maedghill@kpmg.bb. Louisa Lewis- Ward. Partner, Head of Tax.

Document Classification: KPMG Confidential

© 2020 KPMG, a Barbados and Eastern Caribbean partnership, registered in Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity.

The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.

The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

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Contact us

Louisa Lewis-WardPartner, TaxT: +1 246 434 3941M: +1 246 231 0348E: [email protected]

Christopher Brome Partner, AdvisoryT: + 1 246 434 3907 M: +1 246 243 8709 E: [email protected]


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