Staffordshire Moorland ELR Update Staffordshire · PDF fileStaffordshire Moorland ELR Update...

Staffordshire Moorland ELR Update Staffordshire Moorlands District Council

February 2017

41306/06/MW/CRo/RHt

Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 3rd Floor One St James's Square Manchester M2 6DN nlpplanning.com

This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2017. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A

Staffordshire Moorland ELR Update : Staffordshire Moorlands District Council

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Contents

1.0 Introduction 1

Policy Update ................................................................................................... 2

2.0 Economic Context 3

Introduction ...................................................................................................... 3

Functional Economic Area ............................................................................... 8

Policy Update ................................................................................................. 12

3.0 The Current Stock of Employment Floorspace 13

Introduction .................................................................................................... 13

Losses of Employment Land .......................................................................... 17

Anticipated Future Losses .............................................................................. 18

Available Employment Land ........................................................................... 18

Emerging Supply of Employment Floorspace ................................................. 18

Summary ....................................................................................................... 19

4.0 Future Requirements for B-Class Employment Space 20

Introduction .................................................................................................... 20

Methodology .................................................................................................. 20

Growth Scenarios .......................................................................................... 21

Convert Net to Gross Floorspace Requirements ............................................ 38

Safety Margin ................................................................................................. 40

Reality Check ................................................................................................. 44

Conclusions ................................................................................................... 45

5.0 Conclusion 51

Recommended Requirement ......................................................................... 51

Policy Implications ......................................................................................... 52


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1.0 Introduction

1.1 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners [NLP] has been commissioned by Staffordshire

Moorlands District Council [SMDC] to prepare an update to the Employment

Land Review [ELR] Update that NLP produced as a joint study for SMDC and

High Peak Borough Council [HPBC] in July 2014.

1.2 The joint ELR update study formed part of the evidence base to inform High

Peak’s emerging Local Plan (since adopted) and Staffordshire Moorland’s

District Core Strategy Review. The update covered the period 2011 to 2031. It

provided an update of employment land requirements for both High Peak and

Staffordshire Moorlands separately, but did not include an assessment of

employment sites as this work was completed by the respective local

authorities.

1.3 The key outputs of the study were as follows:

1 An update of the economic factors driving the demand for employment

land in the local authority areas, including the results of the 2013 Oxford

Economics forecasts and also labour supply factors, including the

relationship of jobs and economically active population;

2 A commentary on the nature of employment typologies in the long-term

and its implications for floorspace and land requirements, including the

requirements of specific sectors, use classes and types of B-Class and

non B-Class employment uses;

3 Consideration of the significance of all employment including non B-

Class uses on overall employment land requirements and the potential

nonlinear relationship between (net) job growth and land/floorspace

requirements;

4 Forecasting of the likely floorspace and land requirements for the local

authority areas based on the above, to guide employment and land

provision; and,

5 A commentary of the current state of comparative market demands on

the districts and immediate vicinity for different types and locations of

employment land provision.

1.4 High Peak adopted its Local Plan in April 2016. Staffordshire Moorlands

District is working towards producing an updated Local Plan. The Planning

Practice Guidance [PPG] requires Local Plans to be based on up-to-date

evidence [§158]. Therefore SMDC has instructed NLP to update the 2014 joint

ELR study to incorporate more recent data releases; to align with an updated

SHMA; and also to reflect the changing economic context post-Brexit. The

study recommendations relate to that part of the District that lies outwith the

Peak District National Park, which is consistent with the 2014 joint ELR study.

The study will cover the period 2014 – 2031/2033, with a base date of 2014 to

synchronize with the SHMA start date (which utilises the 2014-based

household and population projections).


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1.5 At the time the 2014 joint ELR update was produced, the economy was in

recovery, but now there is uncertainty caused by the EU referendum outcome

in June 2016. This update will use post-Brexit projections that were released

by Oxford Economics in October 2016 and also a new set of econometric

projections produced by Experian in December 2016.

1.6 The Council has also commissioned a SHMA update which is currently being

prepared, and the results of which will feed into the labour supply projections of

this ELR update.

Policy Update

Emerging Staffordshire Moorlands Local Plan

1.7 The SM Core Strategy was adopted on the 26th March 2014. Staffordshire

Moorlands District Council is seeking to submit its early review of the adopted

Local Plan later this year and there is therefore a pressing need to ensure that

the housing and employment land evidence upon which it will be based is as

up-to-date and robust as possible which is the main purpose of NLP

undertaking this update study. An update to the SHMA has also been

commissioned and is currently being prepared.

1.8 The review will incorporate work underway on the Site Allocations

Development Plan Document (DPD) in the form of a single comprehensive

Local Plan for the plan period up to 2031. Land for future development to help

deliver the objectives set out in the Council's adopted Core Strategy will be

identified. Public consultation on site options and development boundaries

was held between 6th July and 14th September 2015 with subsequent public

consultation on the preferred site options and development boundaries taking

place April 28th to 13th July 2016.

1.9 The joint SMDC and HPBC ELR study, produced in July 2014, underpins the

employment land requirements of the High Peak Local Plan that was adopted

in April 2016. In his report the Inspector made several references to the ELR

study. The Inspector agreed with and supported the range of employment land

requirements suggested in the study, and stated that these had been

‘appropriately identified and justified.1’ He concluded that ‘the overall land

provision in the LP [Local Plan] has been justified2’. The Inspector had no

adverse comments on the approach and methodology used by NLP in the joint

study; the same approach is applied in this update Study for Staffordshire

Moorlands District.

1 Paragraph 107 of the Planning Inspector’s report on the examination into High Peak Local Plan (24 March 2016)

2 Ibid, Paragraph 108


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2.0 Economic Context

Introduction

2.1 This section provides an update to the economic context in Staffordshire

Moorlands District. It summarises recent economic conditions and trends

within Staffordshire Moorlands where there have been significant changes

since the joint ELR update was produced in 2014.

Figure 2.1 Staffordshire Moorlands Sub-Regional Context

Source: NLP

2.2 Key main changes are summarised below:

Funding - Following the 2015 Spending Review, no future rounds of the

Regional Growth Fund [RGF] are proposed. This was a national

scheme that supported £1m+ projects through investing in capital

infrastructure or research and development. RGF money is still

available through RGF programmes however. These programmes are

run by national or local organisations offering grants and/or loans to

eligible businesses. Stoke on Trent and Staffordshire Jobs and Growth

Fund will provide gap funding for existing companies that wish to expand

or invest to create sustainable jobs, where this investment would

otherwise not happen due to lack of available finance. Grant funds can

be used for premises expansion, new premises, plant and machinery

and infrastructure (i.e. capital expenditure) where this creates substantial

new employment or safeguards jobs. The closing date to apply for


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funding is February 2017. There are other funding streams available

such as Staffordshire Business Funding that is available through the

Staffordshire Business Innovation Centre and also the Staffordshire

Business Loan Fund, the Staffordshire LEADER Programme and the

Low Carbon Business Evolution Programme to name a few.

JSA Claimants - Unemployment in Staffordshire Moorlands was

estimated at 884 JSA claimants in November 2013, (1.5% of the working

age population). This was well below the West Midlands average of

3.6% and the national average at the time. More recent data from May

2016 estimates 340 JSA claimants (0.6%) of the work age population in

Staffordshire Moorlands compared to 1.7% in the West Midlands and

1.3% for Great Britain. Staffordshire Moorlands therefore continues to

have a much lower JSA claimant rate than the County and British

averages.

DWP out-of-work benefits – DWP data for May 2013 indicated that

8.2% of Staffordshire Moorlands’ working-age population were claiming

key out-of-work benefits (comprising job seekers, incapacity benefits,

lone parents and other on income related benefits). This was

significantly below the West Midlands (12.3%) and British average

(11.2%) at the time. The latest data for May 2016 shows a fall across all

geographical areas: Staffordshire Moorlands (6.7%), West Midlands

(9.7%) and Great Britain (8.7%).

Business Start Ups – The latest ONS Business Demography

Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survivals data is available for 2014. In

2012 there were 255 business births in Staffordshire Moorlands,

increasing to 380 in 2013 but declining slightly in 2014 (to 355). In 2012

there were 285 business deaths, which fell marginally to 265 in 2013

before rising again to 280 in 2014. The latest data therefore highlights

an increase in business births from 2012 to 2014, whilst business deaths

remain relatively stable over the same period.

Economic Activity – In 2012/13 Staffordshire Moorlands District had an

estimated 47,800 (77.4%) economically active residents3. In 2015/16 this

had increased to 50,200 economically active residents, which equates to

an economic activity rate of 84.6%4. This is higher than the regional

(75.2%) and national (77.9%) averages in 2015/16. The proportion of

working age residents with no qualifications in Staffordshire Moorlands

totalled 9.2% in 2015, which has fallen since 2011 (11.3%). The latest

figure remains above the average for Great Britain (8.6%) but lower than

the regional average (13.0%) in 20155.

Employment Sectors - Figure 2.2 compares employment across key

industrial sectors between 2012 and 2015. Manufacturing remains the

main sector with 14.6% of jobs, although this represents a decline from

the 16% recorded in 2012. The proportion of jobs in the Education

3 ONS Annual Population Survey

4 Ibid

5 Ibid


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sector in the District has fallen from 11.1% in 2012 to 8.8% four years

later. The purchase of Leek College by Derby University and its merging

to form ‘Buxton & Leek College’ may account for some of the decline in

the education sector as people are now officially employed by

organisations outside the district or work jointly across different work-

bases. There has been an increase in the absolute number (and also

the proportion) of professional, scientific and technical jobs over that

time period to compensate, rising from 900 jobs (3.1%) in 2012 to 1,200

(4.1%) in 2015. Whilst this is a relatively small percentage change, the

absolute number of jobs has increased by approximately 300. This is

still below the regional (6.6%) and national (8.8%) rates for this sector.

Figure 2.2 Employment Jobs by Industry (2012 and 2015)

Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey

Employment Jobs – Oxford Economics Data (October 2016) provides

current and projected employment figures by sector. Table 2.1

compares the number of jobs based in each sector in 2014, 2031 and

2033. The sector providing the most FTE jobs in 2014 was

manufacturing, although the sector is forecast to lose almost 1,000 jobs

by 2033. In contrast, the construction industry is expected to increase

by around 500 FTE jobs over the same time period. It should be noted

that over the same time period the latest Experian projections indicate

that the District will gain around 1,300 FTEs, with the main difference

comprising the growth in B2 manufacturing jobs. This discrepancy is

analysed in Section 4.0.


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Table 2.1 Comparison of Employment ( in thousands) 2011/2031/2033

Employment Sector 2014 2031 2033 Change (2014-2033)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A) 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.2

Mining and quarrying (B), Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (D) and Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (E)

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

Manufacturing (C) 5.0 4.2 4.1 -0.9

Construction (F) 2.2 2.6 2.7 0.5

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (G)

3.7 3.4 3.4 -0.3

Transportation and storage (H) 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.1

Accommodation and food service activities (I) 1.3 1.2 1.2 -0.1

Information and communication (J) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1

Financial and insurance activities (K) 1.7 1.5 1.5 -0.2

Real estate activities (L) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

Professional, scientific and technical activities (M) 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.3

Administrative and support service activities (N) 2.2 2.7 2.7 0.5

Public administration and defence; compulsory social security (O) 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.2

Education (P) 2.3 2.2 2.2 -0.1

Human health and social work activities (Q) 3.3 3.1 3.1 -0.2

Arts, entertainment and recreation (R) 4.2 4.4 4.4 0.2

Other service activities (S) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1

Total 31.4 31.7 31.6 0.2

Source: Oxford Economics (October 2016)

Deprivation – Figure 2.3 and Figure 2.4 illustrate levels of deprivation

across the District, based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation [IMD] for

2010 and 2015. The figures illustrate that whilst there has been some

variation across the District over the intervening five years, with several

parts of the District particularly to the north of Leek) experiencing a slight

downgrade, many other parts of the District around Cheadle and south

of Leek in particular, have seen greater levels of affluence. This mirrors

the District-wide picture; based on the IMD 2010 (rank of average rank),

Staffordshire Moorlands District was rated the 185th most deprived out of

326 authorities (1 being the most deprived); however the latest IMD

2015 data ranks Staffordshire Moorland at 203rd demonstrating that in

relative terms Staffordshire Moorlands has seen an improvement in

levels of deprivation.


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Figure 2.3 IMD 2010 Staffordshire Moorlands District

Source: CLG/NLP Analysis

Figure 2.4 IMD 2015 Staffordshire Moorlands District

Source: CLG/NLP Analysis


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Functional Economic Area

2.3 This section provides a broad overview of Staffordshire Moorlands District and

its likely relationship within a wider Functional Economic Market Area [FEMA].

The following provides an up-to-date analysis of the extent of the FEMA in

accordance with the Practice Guidance and using the latest 2011 Census data

on migration and commuting levels. The 2014 ELR concluded that

Staffordshire Moorlands District would fall within the wider economic area of

Stoke-on-Trent, within which some 76% of the District’s economically active

residents worked according to the 2011 Census.

2.4 The Practice Guidance6 provides advice on how a FEMA can be defined. It

states that commercial property market geographies should be thought of in

terms of market requirements for the location of premises and spatial factors

used in analysing demand and supply. The Practice Guidance7 goes on to

state that since patterns of economic activity vary from place to place, there is

no standard approach to defining a FEMA. However FEMAs can be defined by

taking account of factors including travel to work areas and housing market

areas8.

2.5 More detailed guidance on how to define a FEMA is provided by CLG. This

states that examining commuting flows can help to define the FEMA of an

economy9. These commuting flows can be assessed using the latest travel-to-

work flow data from the 2011 Census.

2.6 Analysis of Travel to Work Areas [TTWAs] across the country was carried out

by ONS in 2015, based on 2011 commuting patterns (Figure 2.5). From the

modelling work undertaken, ONS considered that Staffordshire Moorlands was

entirely contained within a larger ‘Stoke-on-Trent’ TTWA that also takes in

other local authorities including Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, and

parts of East Staffordshire and Cheshire East.

6 Practice Guidance Reference 2a-012-20140306

7 Ibid

8 Ibid

9 CLG (2010) Functional Economic Market Areas: An Economic Note


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Figure 2.5 ONS Travel-to-work-area analysis based on 2011 Census commuting data

Source: ONS (2015)

2.7 At the time of the 2011 Census, Staffordshire Moorlands was recorded as

having an inflow of 10,204 workers commuting into the District on a daily basis

against 22,94110 out-commuters, giving a net total of 12,737 out-commuters.

The District has high levels of out-commuting to Stoke-on-Trent, East

Staffordshire and Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Figure 2.6 Staffordshire Moorlands District Commuting Patterns

Source: ONS Census 2011

10

This excludes those commuting out of the District to work overseas


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2.8 This represents a change from the time of the previous Census, when 22,101

residents commuted out of the District daily, against 8,145 in-commuters,

giving a net total of 13,956 out-commuters.

2.9 The ONS defines labour market areas as those areas where the bulk of the

resident population also work within the same area. Defining labour market

areas requires an analysis of commuting patterns to identify Travel to Work

Areas [TTWAs] for local economies. A commonly accepted approach to

defining TTWAs is that generally around 75% of an area's resident workforce

work in the area (the first test) and at least 75% of the people who work in the

area also live in the area (the second test). The area must also have a working

population of at least 3,500. It is worth noting that to define a Housing Market

Area [HMA], a figure of around 70% is generally seen as being the threshold

for self-containment in terms of internal movement patterns.

2.10 Applying this methodology to the 2011 Census data, it is possible to determine

whether Staffordshire Moorlands can be considered a self-contained FEMA.

The results of commuting flows are presented in Table 2.2. The table indicates

that Staffordshire Moorlands in isolation cannot be said to represent a TTWA

and therefore it is unlikely to be a FEMA. It also demonstrates that the

combined authorities of Staffordshire Moorlands, Newcastle-under-Lyme and

Stoke-on-Trent have an employment market that is self-contained at levels well

above those commonly accepted when defining a TTWA.

Table 2.2 Commuting data and FEMA tests

Live and work

in LA

Resident workforce population

Workplace population

Net commuters

FEMA Test #1

FEMA Test #2

Staffordshire Moorlands 47,942 35,248 24,991 -12,694 52.1% 70.9%

Staffordshire Moorlands and Stoke-on-Trent

156,480 150,054 114,382 -6,426 73.1% 76.2%

Staffordshire Moorlands, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent

214,122 199,730 173,821 -14,392 81.2% 87.0%

Source: 2011 Census

2.11 The analysis shows that Staffordshire Moorlands District alone has very low

commuting self-containment (52.1%) based on the FEMA Test #1. In contrast,

the analysis demonstrates that the District forms part of the wider Stoke-on-

Trent TTWA (including the administrative areas of Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-

under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands). The FEMA tests show that the

three authority areas have self-containment levels of between 81% (Test 1)

and 87% (Test 2).

2.12 Housing Market Areas [HMAs] are a further criterion that can be used to help

identify a FEMA according to the Practice Guidance11. The Staffordshire

Moorlands SHMA12 states that internal migration within Staffordshire

11

§2a-012-20140306 12

Staffordshire Moorlands SHMA (June 2014)


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Moorlands District accounts for 52% of all inward migration and 57% of all

outward migration. In contrast, factoring in migration data to and from Stoke

on Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme accounts for 69% of all in migrations and

73% of all out migrations (including long distance moves)13. The SHMA

considers that on the basis of the PPG definition Staffordshire Moorlands

District could not be seen as a self-contained HMA. It concludes that the

situation is more complex and parts of the District have much stronger

relationships with the adjoining district of Stoke-on-Trent than with other

settlements in Staffordshire Moorlands District.

2.13 In terms of the implications of this, the Framework is not as prescriptive

regarding addressing business needs in full across the FEMA as it is regarding

the need to meet housing needs across an HMA. Instead, paragraph 160

requires LPAs to have a “clear understanding of business needs within the

economic markets operating in and across their area”. To achieve this, they

should:

“work together with county and neighbouring authorities and with LEPs

to prepare and maintain a robust evidence base to understand both

existing business needs and likely changes in the market; and

work closely with the business community to understand their changing

needs and identify and address barriers to investment, including a lack

of housing, infrastructure or viability.”

2.14 This nevertheless raises important considerations for the effective planning of

employment space in Staffordshire Moorlands District. The duty to cooperate

with neighbouring authorities is especially important given Staffordshire

Moorland District’s economic relationship and commuting patterns with

neighbouring authorities, namely Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme.

The District will need to co-operate with neighbouring authorities over the plan

period to ensure that the needs of businesses and commuting residents are

being effectively met.

2.15 Pragmatically, it is also vital that SMDC considers the supply and demand for

employment space within its own District boundaries. The Local Plan must

ensure that there is sufficient local supply in Staffordshire Moorlands District for

its businesses to expand and grow.

2.16 Although some of the local authorities have strong commuting and migratory

relations with Staffordshire Moorlands District, as part of the consultation

exercise undertaken in 2014, none of the LPAs have specifically requested that

SMDC should take on some of their employment land shortfall, or vice versa.

This position was established through stakeholder consultation in 2014 and

whilst NLP has not contacted neighbouring authorities individually as part of

this partial update, officers at SMDC have confirmed this is still the position.

2.17 In accordance with the Duty to Cooperate, it is recommended that SMDC

continue to partake in close discussions with Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-

13

Ibid


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Under-Lyme to ensure that their economic strategies and emerging

development plan polices align.

Policy Update

Emerging Staffordshire Moorlands Local Plan

2.18 The Core Strategy was adopted on the 26th March 2014. Staffordshire

Moorlands District Council is seeking to submit its early review of the adopted

Local Plan in 2017 and there is therefore a pressing need to ensure that the

housing and employment land evidence upon which it will be based is as up-to-

date and robust as possible which is the main purpose of NLP undertaking this

update study. An update to the SHMA has also been commissioned and is

currently being finalised.

2.19 The review will incorporate work underway on the Site Allocations

Development Plan Document (DPD) in the form of a single comprehensive

Local Plan for the plan period up to 2031. Land for future development to help

deliver the objectives set out in the Council's adopted Core Strategy will be

identified. Public consultation on site options and development boundaries

was held between 6th July and 14th September 2015 with subsequent public

consultation on preferred site options and development boundaries taking

place between April 28th and 13th July 2016.


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3.0 The Current Stock of Employment

Floorspace

Introduction

3.1 This section provides an update of the current stock of employment space in

Staffordshire Moorlands, as well as recent trends in, and changes to, supply. It

also provides detail of development planned for future and past losses of land.

3.2 The analysis contained within this section draws upon the following data

sources:

Commercial floorspace data from the Valuation Office (VOA);

Staffordshire Moorlands District Council’s monitoring data on employment

development; and

Websites of agents active in the local area.

3.3 An assessment of employment sites has also been undertaken separately by

the LPA to help inform the study.

Commercial Floorspace

3.4 The most up-to-date information from the VOA provides commercial/value

floorspace dates to 2015/16. In 2015/16, Staffordshire Moorlands had over

560,000 sqm of industrial/office floorspace. As illustrated in Figure 3.1, the

vast majority of this related to industrial/warehousing floorspace – 517,000

sqm, or 92% of the total. This bias was slightly more pronounced in 2000, with

94% of the total stock comprising industrial and warehousing floorspace. Over

this period B2/B8 floorspace has declined by 23% (153,000 sqm), or 10,200

sqm per annum. In contrast, B1 office space has actually increased by 12%

(5,000 sqm) over this period.


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Figure 3.1 Stock of Floorspace in Staffordshire Moorlands District 2000-2016

Source: VOA Floorspace Statistics/NLP Analysis Note: The term ‘Industrial’ as used by the VOA in this experimental data includes B1c, B2, B8 and some Sui Generis uses. From the data provided by VOA it is not possible to extract the Sui Generis uses from the overall floorspace figures.

3.5 Figure 3.2 illustrates the spatial distribution of employment space across

Staffordshire Moorlands District. The figure shows the size of different types of

employment space, based on records held by the Valuation Office Agency.

Figure 3.2 Spatial Distribution of Employment Floorspace

Source: VOA 2016 / NLP


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3.6 The distribution of employment space reflects the scale of key settlement

centres within the District: Leek has the largest cluster of employment

floorspace followed by Cheadle and Biddulph. Figure 3.2 illustrates clearly that

businesses are clustered in these settlements and close to the main transport

corridors that serve the District. Other smaller pockets of employment

floorspace, principally small workshops (<1,000 sqm), are spread along key A-

roads such as the A52 which runs east to west and connects the District to

Stoke-on-Trent.

3.7 A comparison with employment space levels in nearby districts is presented in

Figure 3.3. This suggests that Staffordshire Moorlands District has a higher

level of floorspace than the neighbouring rural authority of Derbyshire Dales,

but with similar trends exhibited (i.e. rising during the early 2000s, followed by

a continuous fall from around 2006 onwards). The surrounding urban areas

such as Stockport and Stoke-on-Trent have much higher levels of floorspace,

although Stoke in particular has experienced a very significant level of decline

over this period.

Figure 3.3 Stock of Floorspace by Comparator Areas, 2000-2016

Source: VOA Business Floorspace Statistics / NLP Analysis

Vacancy Levels

3.8 Across Staffordshire Moorlands District based on an online survey of

commercial estates agents14 there was around 7,840 sqm of industrial

floorspace available and being actively marketed in October 2016, equivalent

to 1.6% of the total B2/B8 industrial stock (492,085 sqm). This compares to

c.6,400 sqm of available industrial floorspace being actively marketed in 2014.

14

Rightmove and Movehut were analysed in detail to identify vacant industrial and office floorspace. The findings provide a snapshot of vacancy levels from the time of the research undertaken in October 2016.


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The latest figures are still lower than might be expected, which suggests that

the variety and supply of premises in the District is limited and hence available

properties are occupied quickly.

3.9 For offices, the available stock was around 1,330 sqm in 2014, equivalent to

almost 3% of the total stock15. This was below the typical normal market level

of 8-10%. The latest data suggests that there is around 7,200 sqm of available

office stock, equivalent to 14% of the total stock (49,965 sqm), a significant

increase. The increased proportion of available office stock can be partly

attributed to the inclusion of Cross Street Mill which comprises a series of

offices of varying sizes totalling approximately 5,350 sqm.

Development Rates

3.10 SMDC officers collate data on the development of employment land for Annual

Monitoring purposes. Take-up of floorspace (i.e. completion rates) for

employment development has been provided by SMDC offices from 2006

onwards.

3.11 As Table 3.1 illustrates, take-up of employment sites in Staffordshire

Moorlands District over the period 2007/08 to 2014/15 totalled 10.06 ha, or

1.26 ha per annum.

3.12 Although much of the take up in recent years relates to just one year, 2011/12,

this is not limited to one development and actually relates to a number of

schemes that happened to be recorded in that year including:

around 1.87 ha for a new Adams Food factory on existing Kerrygold

premises;

1.09 ha involved the completed components of a new John Pointons

Energy Centre, a major scheme involving extensive new build;

0.31ha related to new building expansion as Esterchem;

0.083ha involved a large extension to Croda Chemicals; and,

various other mixed B1/B2/B8 completions under 300 sqm.

15

Ibid


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Table 3.1 Gross Employment Completions in Staffordshire Moorlands District (ha)

Year B1 B2 B8 Mixed B1, B2, B8 Total B-Class

2007/08 0.22 0 0 0.02 0.24

2008/09 0.64 0 0.21 0 0.85

2009/10 0.02 0.10 0.32 0.52 0.95

2010/11 1.29 0.34 0 0.05 1.67

2011/12 0.16 0.64 0 3.40 4.19

2012/13 0.23 0.04 0.17 1.50 1.95

2013/14 0.02 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.20

2014/15 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

TOTAL 2.59 1.31 0.70 5.49 10.06

Annual Average 0.32 0.16 0.09 0.69 1.26

Source: Staffordshire Moorlands District Council 2016

3.13 Forma 1 and 2 of the West Midlands Employment Land Survey were used for

2013/14 data. ‘Existing Sites’, defined as ‘sites still available for development’,

are not included.

3.14 2014/15 uses data provided on ‘positive commitments’ and does not include

the temporary change of use (SMD/2014/0416) in this figure.

3.15 The latest take up figures provided by the Council demonstrate there has been

limited development in 2013/14 and 2014/15. No data is available for 2015/16

at the time of writing.

Losses of Employment Land

3.16 Information provided by SMDC indicates that losses of employment land in the

period 2007/08 to 2014/15 have been as follows:

Table 3.2 Losses of Employment Land

Use Class Losses 2007/08 – 2014/15 (ha)

B1a 0.08

B1b 0.00

B1c 0.24

B2 0.99

B8 0.14

Mixed B1/B2/B8 7.15

TOTAL 8.60

Source: SMDC

3.17 The rate of losses in Staffordshire Moorlands totals 8.60ha over that 8 year

period at a rate of 1.08 ha per annum. Much of this is attributable to the

redevelopment of the Churnet Works site at Macclesfield Road, Leek, for a


P18 12927647v5

Sainsbury’s foodstore, B1/B2/B8 industrial units and other retail units in

2012/13. In total, of the 9.514 ha site, 3 ha comprised undeveloped land, 1.45

ha was redeveloped for new employment units, and the remaining 5.06ha is to

be redeveloped for A1 retail. Whilst this development is not complete, we

understand from SMDC that no further development occurred on this site

between 2013 and 2015 and in any case the full extent of losses has been

accounted for in the year 2011/12. This has resulted in a large decline in

losses for the most recent period.

Anticipated Future Losses

3.18 The Council consulted on the latest version of its SHLAA in 2015 as part of its

site options and development boundary consultation between 6th July and 14th

September 2015.

3.19 SMDC Officers confirmed that around 30 ha of employment land in

Staffordshire Moorlands may be lost to residential and mixed use development

over the period 2011 to 2031. It includes a mixture of allocated sites and

existing employment sites and equates to a loss of approximately 1.5 ha per

annum over the 20 year period.

Available Employment Land

3.20 Data collated by SMDC suggests that there was around 17.13ha of ‘available’

B-class employment land across Staffordshire Moorlands in July 201416. It

should be noted that this supply does not include the Regional Investment Site

(RIS) at Blythe Bridge. The RIS site was identified in the Preferred Options

Sites and Boundaries consultation (2016) as the Northern Gateway

Opportunity Site to link it to the emerging Northern Gateway initiative. The site

may have a role to play in supporting the project, which aims to maximize the

regeneration benefits of HS2 investment in the vicinity of Crewe. The Northern

Gateway Development Zone spans north Staffordshire and Cheshire.

Although it is a commitment of 50 hectares, it does not count against the Core

Strategy requirements, because it is considered to be a strategic provision for

North Staffordshire rather than being specific to the Staffordshire Moorlands.

Emerging Supply of Employment Floorspace

3.21 An analysis of SMDC’s development pipeline also helps us to understand the

projected supply of employment space. Information has been provided by the

Council detailing applications granted planning permission which have not yet

been completed. In Staffordshire Moorlands, the site area of planning

permissions for new industrial/commercial development is 0.73 ha that remain

extant but have not yet be completed (as of the monitoring year 2014/15).

16

This figure was provided by SMDC and was considered accurate by the Council at the time of the Joint ELR Study prepared by NLP in July 2014


12927647v5 P19

Summary

3.22 The key findings can be summarised as follows:

Staffordshire Moorlands District has over 598,000 sqm of B-class

floorspace, the vast majority of which relates to industrial floorspace

(546,000 sqm), or 91% of the total.

In Staffordshire Moorlands District, 7,844 sqm (2%) of industrial

floorspace and 7,206 (14%) of office floorspace is currently being

marketed. Since 2014 the amount of office floorspace being marketed

has increased, which is attributable to a number of large units becoming

available.

Take-up of employment sites in Staffordshire Moorlands over the period

2006 to 2014 totalled 10.06 ha, or 1.26 ha per annum, although it should

be noted that completions in 2013/14 and 2014/15 have been very low.

An average of 1.08 ha gross of B class space has been lost annually in

Staffordshire Moorlands District since 2007; this is a total of 8.60 ha.

Losses have tailed off since the substantial losses associated with the

Churnet Works development for a new Sainsbury’s foodstore in 2012.


P20 12927647v5

4.0 Future Requirements for B-Class

Employment Space

Introduction

4.1 This section considers the future economic growth requirements in

Staffordshire Moorlands District by drawing upon several methodologies that

reflect the requirements of the Practice Guidance. These scenarios are used

to inform the assessment of the District’s future employment land needs for

office and industrial (i.e. manufacturing and warehousing) for the period 2014

to 2031 and 2014 to 2033.

Methodology

4.2 The Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment section of the

Practice Guidance advises that “local authorities should develop an idea of

future needs based on a range of data which is current and robust.” 17 In

particular, it recommends that Plan-makers consider a variety of forecasting

techniques:

1 Sectoral employment forecasts and projections (labour demand);

2 Demographically-derived assessments of future employment land needs

(labour supply);

3 Analysis based on the past take-up of employment land and property

and/or future property market requirements; and,

4 Consultation with relevant organisations, studies of business trends and

monitoring of business, employment and economic statistics.

4.3 Within this context, a number of potential future scenarios are considered

within this section in order to provide a framework for assessing future B-class

employment space requirements in Staffordshire Moorlands District over the

17-year period 2014 to 2031 and 19-year period 2014 to 2033. The

quantitative forecasting techniques applied clearly align with items 1-3 outlined

above:

a Baseline employment forecasts (labour demand), using Oxford

Economics’ Local Market Quarterly Forecasts for October 2016;

Experian’s local area-based projections and a Combined jobs growth

scenario;

b Estimated growth in the local labour supply – and the jobs and

employment space that this could be expected to support – having

regard to analysis presented as part of the District’s Strategic Housing

Market Assessment [SHMA]; and

17

2a-032-20140306


12927647v5 P21

c Consideration of past take-up of employment space based upon

monitoring data provided by SMDC and how these might change in

future.

4.4 All of these approaches have their own individual strengths and limitations. In

order to be robust, however, the District’s economic growth potential (and the

likely demand for employment space) needs to be assessed under a variety of

future scenarios that reflect alternative growth conditions that could arise over

the study period. In reconciling the various scenarios, consideration needs to

be given to how appropriate each is to the particular circumstances and

aspirations of SMDC.

4.5 The ultimate judgement regarding the level of employment need that SMDC

should plan for is not, therefore, simply shaped by a consideration of

quantitative analysis. Rather, a number of qualitative factors must also be

taken into account (as discussed in other sections of this report). These

factors, which have been identified through an analysis of economic and

market conditions – as well as earlier consultation with economic stakeholders,

commercial agents and local businesses – will influence the employment

space requirements that need to be planned for and must be considered

alongside the modelled scenarios.

4.6 It is important to note at the outset that the two forecasting houses appraised in

this ELR, namely Oxford Economics [OE] and Experian, both produce credible

and robust estimates of job growth at a local area level. However, there are

methodological differences between them regarding how the various job

projections are derived. This can mean that in certain circumstances and in

certain spatial areas, one may produce a more realistic, or appropriate, level of

job growth than another. A commentary is provided below of how each

forecasting house calculates job growth at a local spatial area.

Growth Scenarios

A. Econometric Job Forecasting

Scenario 1) Oxford Economics Staffordshire Moorlands Economic Forecasts (October 2016)

4.7 Oxford Economics [OE] job forecasts were commissioned by Staffordshire

Moorlands District Council to underpin this analysis.

4.8 It should be emphasised that such forecasts tend to be most reliable at

regional and national scales and consequently less so at the local economy

level. Nevertheless, they provide a valuable input in respect of understanding

future land needs by indicating the broad scale and direction of economic

growth in different sectors.

4.9 Oxford Economics [OE] forecasts start with national forecasts of demand for

labour set out in 19 individual sectors, then move to regional and local


P22 12927647v5

forecasts in turn, constraining each of these to the larger geographical area

figures.

4.10 Unlike Experian, OE produces its own forecasts of population, which are

economically driven. The births and deaths figures are taken from the ONS

population projections, but projected migration levels are generated by OE.

4.11 As with Experian local forecasts, OE adjusts the proportion of the working age

population that is in employment, in order to reflect the level of demand for

labour; OE frames this as a combined ‘employment rate’, rather than separate

economic activity and unemployment rates. OE also adjusts migration, based

on the view that fewer people would move into an area if the employment rate

is falling too fast, i.e. employment prospects are weak.

4.12 As with the Experian model, commuting rates are fixed. Therefore, there are

three variable elements in the OE model (migration, economic activity rates

and unemployment rates), compared to just two in the Experian model

(economic activity rates and unemployment rates). In contrast to the approach

adopted by Experian, this recognises that migration (and hence, population

levels) will change in response to employment growth.

4.13 OE’s local forecasts are led and constrained by its macroeconomic forecasts

and to a lesser extent by the ONS population projections. For further

information on the OE methodology, see the OE Local Authority District

Forecasting Model Guide in Appendix 2.

4.14 Oxford Economics’ detailed Local Authority Forecasts take account of the

existing economic structures of each Local Authority (broken down by

economic sector) and the historical performance observed at the Local

Authority level.

4.15 Before presenting the job growth outcomes from the scenarios it is worth

highlighting, in broad terms, limitations in how these were generated:

1 They are predominantly trend-based estimates projecting historic growth

patterns into the future;

2 The forecasts do not take into account policy influences and unforeseen

impacts of individual business decisions; and,

3 It is important to recognise that there is not always a clear cut

relationship between employment change and employment land needs.

Additional employment space can be needed even if employment itself is

falling, for example if a manufacturing firm requires more space to enable

greater automation and achieve job reductions through productivity

gains.

4.16 For Staffordshire Moorlands District, the October 2016 OE jobs-based

employment projections suggest that, following a rapid increase between 2012

and 2014, Staffordshire Moorlands District is likely to experience a decline in

employment to 2019, picking up again to 2025 before declining steadily to

2033 (see below).


12927647v5 P23

Figure 4.1 Jobs based (FTE) Employment Change in Staffordshire Moorlands District (Historic and Projected) 2001-2033

Source: Oxford Economics / NLP Analysis

4.17 The OE forecasts project a FTE job growth in Staffordshire Moorlands District

of just 288 (net) for the period 2014-2031 as can be seen in Table 4.1. The

strongest growth (in absolute terms) is expected in Administrative and Support

Service activities (+460 or +20.6%) and Construction (+401 or 17.9%). The

greatest (proportionate) increases are anticipated in Arts, entertainment and

recreation (+25.4%) and Professional, scientific and technical activities

(+26.3%). It is important to note that each category comprises more specific

sub-sectors, so for example, much of the job growth in Administrative and

support service activities is not in the B-class uses (includes Travel agency,

tour operator and security and investigation activities).

Table 4.1 Fastest Growing and Declining FTE Employment Sectors in Staffordshire Moorlands District, 2014-2031 and 2014-2033

OE Sector Use Class Employment Change (2011-2031)

% Change (2011-2031)

Employment Change (2011-2033)

% Change (2011-2033)

Professional Services

B Class +302 26.3% +315 27.4%

Recreation Non B Class +169 25.4% +160 24.2%

Administrative & Supportive Services

Part B Class +460 20.6% +489 21.9%

Information and Communication

B Class +77 20.2% +79 20.7%

Agriculture Non B Class +225 22.5% +199 19.9%

Manufacturing B Class -833 -16.6% -952 -19.2%

Public Administration

Part B Class -99 -18.0% -106 -19.2%

Source: OE 2016 / NLP Analysis


P24 12927647v5

4.18 Although job growth is projected to be in the order of 0.9% 2014-2031, GVA

growth outstrips this, increasing by 25.7% over the same time period

(illustrated in Table 4.2).

Table 4.2 Staffordshire Moorlands Oxford Economics Summary

2011 2014 2021 2026 2031 2033 2014-2031

+/- %

Workforce Jobs (thousands)

34.7 36.7 37.0 37.3 37.0 36.9 +338 0.9

Total FTE Employment (thousands)

29.4 31.4 31.8 32.0 31.7 31.6 +288 0.9

Staffordshire Moorlands GVA (£m 2013)

1,339.4 1,278.0 1,372.2 1,499.5 1,606.4 1,652.2 +328.4 25.7

Source: Oxford Economics October 2016

4.19 The overall employment change in Staffordshire Moorlands District resulting

from these forecasts is shown in Table 4.2 and Table 4.3 along with expected

employment growth in the main B-class sectors. This includes an allowance for

jobs in other non B-class sectors that typically utilise industrial or office space,

such as some construction uses, vehicle repair, courier services, road

transport and cargo handling and some public administration activities. This is

because a certain proportion of these jobs will occupy premises falling within

the B-class sectors (see Appendix 1).

4.20 To translate the resultant job forecasts into estimates of potential employment

space, it is necessary to allocate the level of employment change forecast for

office, industrial, and wholesale / distribution uses as follows:

The office floorspace requirement is related to job growth / decline in the

financial and business service sectors18;

The industrial floorspace requirement is related to job growth / decline in

the manufacturing sectors19; and,

The wholesale / distribution floorspace requirement is related to job

growth / decline in the Industrial sectors of wholesale and land transport,

storage and postal services.20

4.21 These figures indicate a slight decrease in the level of net FTE job change

(-320 jobs) in the B-use classes in Staffordshire Moorlands District over the

period to 2031, with B1a/b sectors seeing a cumulative increase of +523 jobs,

but neutralised by B8 seeing a cumulative decrease of -92 and large decline in

B1c/B2 manufacturing (-751). This is within the context of overall job growth of

288 jobs projected for Staffordshire Moorlands District between 2014 and 2031

(i.e. non B-class sections are forecast to grow by over 600 jobs).

18

i.e. BRES Sectors 58-75, Office administration and support and 10% of Public Administration and Defence 19

Manufacturing sectors, plus car repair, some construction and waste and remediation activities 20

Wholesaling less car repairs retail car sales, plus post/couriers and land transport


12927647v5 P25

Table 4.3 Forecast FTE Change in Staffordshire Moorlands District (2014 – 2031/33)

Staffordshire Moorlands FTE Jobs Change

2014 2031 2033 2014-2031

Offices (B1a/b)* 4,549 5,072 5,091 +523

Manufacturing (B1c/B2)** 6,469 5,718 5,594 -751

Distribution (B8)*** 1,781 1,689 1,681 -92

Total B-class Jobs 12,799 12,479 12,366 -320

Other Non B-Class Jobs 18,628 19,236 19,199 +608

Jobs in All Sectors 31,427 31,715 31,565 +288

Source: Oxford Economics / NLP Analysis ** includes a proportion of public sector employment and administration & support services

** includes vehicle repair and some construction activities

*** includes elements of transport & communications sectors

4.22 In order to translate the resulting figures into employment land projections,

employment densities (based upon the latest 2015 HCA21 guidance on

employment densities), adjusted to translate FTEs into workforce jobs and plot

ratios by use class, were then applied to the employment change.

4.23 It was assumed that:

1 One B1a/b general office FTE job requires 14 sqm of employment

floorspace [Gross External Area, or GEA];

2 One B1c light industrial FTE job requires 60 sqm of employment

floorspace [GEA];

3 One B2 industrial FTE job requires 38 sqm of employment floorspace

[GEA];

4 A combined B1c/B2 factor of one FTE job per 49 sqm was obtained by

taking an average of the aforementioned B1c/B2 GEA equivalents;

5 One warehousing/distribution FTE job requires 70 sq. m. of employment

space [GEA] 22.

4.24 The HCA Guidance takes account of recent trends in terms of the changing

use of employment space, the main change being the more efficient utilisation

of office space due to increased flexible working and hot-desking. This has

resulted in a decrease in the amount of floorspace per office worker compared

to previous guidance.

4.25 An adjustment has been made to reflect the fact that vacancy rates in

Staffordshire Moorlands are currently around 14% for office floorspace and

around 2% for industrial/warehousing floorspace23. On the basis that a figure

of 10% better reflects ‘normal’ market conditions, the model has assumed that

there is a need for slightly less office floorspace, and more industrial

21

HCA (November 2015), Employment Densities Guide, 3rd Edition 22

Given that the majority of B8 warehousing has been low bay warehousing in recent years, the ‘small’ warehousing jobs ratio of 1 FTE job per 70 sqm has been used from the HCA guidance as agreed with Council Officers at the time of the Joint ELR Study in 2014. We have retained this ratio as we are not aware of anything that is likely to have significantly changes this assumption in the intervening period. 23

On the basis of an assessment of commercial property websites in October 2016 set against the VOA Business Floorspace statistics.


P26 12927647v5

floorspace, to help bring the market back to something approaching an

equilibrium by 2031.

4.26 The relationship between job growth and floorspace is not, however,

straightforward. As can be seen in Figure 4.2, whilst the number of industrial

jobs in Staffordshire Moorlands declined between 2000 and 2012 (by -12%),

the amount of industrial floorspace in occupation declined by -15%. However,

this is due to an upsurge in jobs in the last couple of years of this period which

has skewed the figures and the general trend over this period has been that

jobs have fallen at a faster rate than floorspace. Furthermore, office floorspace

has grown at a slower rate than FTE jobs: 111%, compared to 151% which

implies an element of landless growth.

4.27 As such, where a reduction in industrial jobs is forecast, the associated

negative floorspace was halved, to reflect the fact that not all of this

employment space is likely to be lost.

Figure 4.2 Comparison of Historic Industrial FTE Jobs/Floorspace in Staffordshire Moorlands

Source: NLP Analysis/Oxford Economics/Experimental Business Floorspace Statistics 2000-2012 (VOA)

Note: ‘linear’ refers to a line of best fit of average change


12927647v5 P27

4.28 The resultant floorspace and land estimates are provided in Table 4.4. They

indicate a negative net floorspace requirement for B1a/b, B1c/B2 and B8 uses

in Staffordshire Moorlands District of -16,112 sqm. This is despite strong B1a/b

growth over the 17-year assessment period. In contrast, future B8 floorspace is

estimated to be strongly negative, alongside a more modest negative

requirement for B2. Applying a standard 40% plot ratio suggests that the net

land requirements under this scenario are in the order of -4 ha to 2031 and -4.7

ha to 2033.

Table 4.4 OE FTE Job Growth based Net Employment Floorspace and Land Requirements 2014-2031 and 2014-2033

Staffordshire Moorlands District Net Floorspace

Requirement (sqm)

Staffordshire Moorlands District Net Land Requirement (Ha)

2014-2031 2014-2033 2014-2031 2014-2033

Offices (B1a/b) 5,514 5,813 1.38 1.45

Manufacturing (B1c/B2)

-18,408 -21,437 -4.60 -5.36

Distribution (B8) -3,217 -3,504 -0.80 -0.88

Total -16,112 -19,128 -4.03 -4.78

Source: Oxford Economics / NLP Analysis

Scenario 2): Experian Job Growth Projections

4.29 The Experian econometric forecasts begin with UK-wide economic variables to

create a core macro-economic forecast, indicating the national demand for

labour. Regional forecasts of employment change are constrained to conform

to these UK-wide employment figures, and local forecasts are constrained to

match the regional totals. These forecasts set out the expected levels of

growth across 12 broad sectors and 38 categories.

4.30 For its local forecasts, Experian begins with ONS population projections along

with its own employment forecasts. It then creates and adjusts its own

economic activity and unemployment rates to align with both the population

and employment figures. Appendix D to the Experian Data Guide (December

2016) states that “the participation rate is an endogenous variable in all our

models. It is not a fixed assumption.” Hence, if demand for labour is high (i.e.

there are a large number of new jobs), the economic activity rate is assumed to

increase and/or unemployment to decrease.

4.31 Commuting rates are fixed for the local forecasts, although if there is deemed

to be insufficient demand or supply for labour after the adjustment of economic

activity and unemployment rates, the resulting commuting rate may be

different. Therefore, Experian’s local forecasts are led and constrained by both

the ONS population projections and its own macroeconomic jobs forecasts.

4.32 For further information on the Experian methodology, see the Experian UK

Regional Planning Service Data Guide (December 2016) in Appendix 3.

4.33 The Experian forecasts project a FTE job growth in Staffordshire Moorlands

District of 1,300 (net) for the period 2014-2031 as can be seen in Table 4.5.


P28 12927647v5

The strongest growth (in absolute terms) is expected in the manufacture of

Transport Equipment (+944 or +179%) and Machinery & Equipment (+732 or

50%), with the former also comprising the greatest (proportionate) increase.

The largest reductions in employment are projected for the manufacture of

Metal Products (-317, or -43%); Wholesale (-214 or -1%) and Agriculture,

Forestry and Fishing (-213 or -18%).

Table 4.5 Fastest Growing and Declining FTE Employment Sectors in Staffordshire Moorlands District, 2014-2031 and 2014-2033

Experian Sector Use Class Employment Change (2011-

2031)

% Change (2011-2031)

Employment Change (2011-2033)

% Change (2011-2033)

Transport Equipment (manufacture of) B Class +944 179% +1,140 216%

Machinery & Equipment (manufacture of)

B Class +732 50% +818 56%

Recreation Non B Class +310 15% +395 19%

Finance B Class +206 13% +191 12%

Administration and Support Services Part B Class +205 10% +187 9%

Chemicals (manufacture of) B Class -211 -50% -213 -51%

Non-Metallic Products (manufacture of) B Class -211 -50% -213 -51%

Public Administration & Defence Part B Class -212 -34% -215 -34%

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B Class -213 -18% -220 -19%

Wholesale Part B Class -214 -15% -224 -15%

Metal Products (manufacture of) B Class -317 -43% -320 -43%

Source: OE 2016 / NLP Analysis

4.34 The overall employment change in Staffordshire Moorlands District resulting

from these forecasts is shown in Table 4.6 along with expected employment

growth in the main B-class sectors. This includes an allowance for jobs in

other non B-class sectors that typically utilise industrial or office space, such as

some construction uses, vehicle repair, courier services, road transport and

cargo handling and some public administration activities. As with the OE

commentary above, this is because a certain proportion of these jobs will

occupy premises falling within the B-class sectors. We have applied similar

assumptions regarding the alignment of sectoral growth with office/industrial

and wholesale floorspace requirements.

4.35 These figures indicate a healthy increase in the level of net FTE job change

+1,190 FTE jobs) in the B-use classes in Staffordshire Moorlands District over

the period to 2031, with B1a/b sectors seeing a cumulative increase of +471

jobs, a slight decrease in B8 employment, and a strong increase in B1c/B2

manufacturing (+761) which is entirely due to the aforementioned growth in the

manufacture of transport equipment and machinery & equipment. This is

within the context of overall job growth of 1,300 FTE jobs projected for

Staffordshire Moorlands District between 2014 and 2031 (i.e. non B-class

sections are forecast to grow by 110 FTE jobs).


12927647v5 P29

Table 4.6 Forecast FTE Change in Staffordshire Moorlands District (2014 – 2031/33)

Staffordshire Moorlands FTE Jobs Change

2014 2031 2033 2014-2031

Offices (B1a/b)* 3,690 4,162 4,128 +471

Manufacturing (B1c/B2)** 5,394 6,155 6,417 +761

Distribution (B8)*** 1,680 1,638 1,713 -42

Total B-class Jobs 10,764 11,954 12,258 +1,190

Other Non B-Class Jobs 15,036 15,146 15,042 +110

Jobs in All Sectors 25,800 27,100 27,300 +1,300

Source: Experian / NLP Analysis ** includes a proportion of public sector employment and administration & support services

** includes vehicle repair and some construction activities

*** includes elements of transport & communications sectors

4.36 In order to translate the resulting figures into employment land projections,

employment densities (based upon the latest 2015 HCA24 guidance on

employment densities), adjusted to translate FTEs into workforce jobs and plot

ratios by use class, were then applied to the employment change as per the

approach applied to the OE projections set out in Scenario 1. We have also

made similar allowances for vacancy rate adjustments and halved negative B8

floorspace.

4.37 The resultant floorspace and land estimates are provided in Table 4.7. They

indicate a positive net floorspace requirement for B1a/b, B1c/B2 and B8 uses

in Staffordshire Moorlands District of 68,574 sqm to 2031. This is due to

strong B1a/b and B1c/B2 growth over the 17-year assessment period. In

contrast, future B8 floorspace is slightly negative. Applying a standard 40%

plot ratio suggests that the net land requirements under this scenario are in the

order of +17 ha to 2031 and +22 ha to 2033.

Table 4.7 Experian FTE Job Growth based Net Employment Floorspace and Land Requirements 2014-2031 and 2014-2033

Staffordshire Moorlands District Net Floorspace

Requirement (sqm)


2014-2031 2014-2033 2014-2031 2014-2033

Offices (B1a/b) 4,657 6,015 1.16 1.50


65,397 69,707 16.35 17.43

Distribution (B8) -1,481 13,754 -0.37 3.44

Total 68,574 89,476 17.14 22.37

Source: Experian / NLP Analysis

Scenario 3: Combination of Job Growth Forecasts

4.38 As noted above, whilst both forecasting houses produce reliable and robust job

growth projections, there can be some variance at a local area level due to the

slightly different methodologies employed and increased data volatility at this

spatial level. This section explores whether we could attach more or less

24

HCA (November 2015), Employment Densities Guide, 3rd Edition


P30 12927647v5

weight to either of these projections in the context of Staffordshire Moorlands

District, and if not, whether it would be appropriate to combine the forecasts to

generate a new scenario.

Sectoral Job Growth

4.39 Table 4.8 presents a comparison of the two econometric job projections.

Although the three forecasting houses release data broken down across a

number of sectors, these have been amalgamated by NLP into 12 broad SIC

sectors to enable comparisons to be made. Figure 4.3 demonstrates the

overall divergence between the two employment forecasts.

4.40 Whilst both projections indicate growth over the plan period, the magnitude

varies considerably between the two projections. For instance, the OE

projections suggest a growth of just 288 jobs over the projection period, whilst

the Experian projections (starting from a lower base) project a level of growth

4.5-times higher, at 1,300.

Table 4.8 Comparison of Econometric Models’ Workforce Net Job Growth

Sectors Staffordshire Moorlands District

Oxford Economics Experian Average

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 225 -213 6

Mining and Quarrying 3 0 2

Manufacturing -833 829 -2

Utilities -23 -1 -12

Construction 351 102 227

Wholesale and Retail -292 -324 -308

Transport and Storage 114 103 108

Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation -80 412 166

Information and Communication 77 0 39

Finance and Insurance -101 310 105

Professional & Other Private Services 976 307 641

Public Services -130 -225 -178

TOTAL 288 1,300 794 Source: Oxford Economics October 2016 / Experian December 2016 / NLP analysis

Note: cells highlighted in red are more than 300 jobs higher/lower than the average.


12927647v5 P31

Figure 4.3 Staffordshire Moorlands Total FTE Job Growth by Scenario (2014-2031)

Source: Oxford Economics / Experian / NLP analysis

4.41 For the most part, the key sectors that are increasing / decreasing the most for

Staffordshire Moorlands are similar; the issue is the scale of change. For

instance, Construction, Transport & Storage, and Professional Services are

sectors that are forecast to grow across both sets of projections. Conversely,

Wholesale & Retail and Public Services are projected to decline by OE and

Experian.

4.42 The most obvious discrepancy between the 2 projections relates to the

Manufacturing sector. Whilst OE projects a net decline of 833 FTE jobs

between 2014 and 2031, the Experian projections indicate a net growth of 829

FTE jobs. This is primarily due to the difference projected in just two sub-

sectors, specifically the manufacture of Machinery & Equipment, and Transport

Equipment. The OE projections suggest a decline of -427 FTE jobs for these

two sectors, whilst the Experian projections suggest a growth of 1,676 FTE

jobs net.

4.43 Historic Business Register and Employment Survey [BRES] data for the period

2009-2015 suggests that employment in Staffordshire Moorlands District has

bene static in the manufacture of machinery sector (at 1,250 jobs), whilst the

number of people employed in the manufacture of transport equipment has

declined from 530 to 380 over the same time period.

4.44 On the face of it therefore, this would suggest that the OE projections bear a

closer resemblance to what has happened in these two sectors in recent years,

whilst the Experian projections are indicating a step change in growth across

both sectors.

4.45 This is not to say, however, that the Experian forecasts are necessarily

unsound. As set out above, Experian constrains its local forecasts to match

the regional totals, hence sectors where the West Midlands has a particular


P32 12927647v5

competitive advantage and which are likely to grow strongly over the coming

years, are also forecast to perform well in Staffordshire Moorlands.

4.46 The West Midlands region has a world-renowned automotive, aerospace and

rail technologies cluster, as exemplified in the ambitions set out in the

‘Midlands Engine’ Prospectus25:

“Our manufacturing output will continue to be driven by global companies like

Alstom, Bombardier Jaguar Land Rover, JCB and Rolls-Royce. These

companies also contribute strongly to the wider transport technology and

engineering sectors, and their supply chains extend across the Midlands. This

is a significant economic network. Our strong supply chain base will be central

to the success of the Midlands Engine.”

4.47 Whilst the extent to which Staffordshire Moorlands District can benefit from this

region-wide growth in advanced manufacturing in these highly specialised

sectors is open to question, there are a number of companies located in the

District that could be well placed to support these aspirations. This includes

the likes of JCB (with two large factories producing Earthmovers and Compact

Products to the north-east of Cheadle) and Belle Engineering (a manufacturer

of light equipment, including mini-dumpers and snowploughs for the building

and construction markets, based in Sheen).

4.48 Hence whilst the Experian projections for these sectors may appear very

ambitious, it would be wrong to discount them entirely as they align with

region-wide growth opportunities and are founded on the growth of existing

long established, successful manufacturing companies based in the District.

4.49 Furthermore, changing the base date of the projections from 2014 to 2011

would have a significant impact on the level of job growth for the OE forecasts

in particular. OE indicates that over the 20-year period 2011- 2031, FTE job

growth would be in the order of 2,278, compared to 2,300 for Experian over the

same time period – a very modest difference indeed.

Conclusion on suitability of the two projections

4.50 It is important to recognise that there are inevitably uncertainties and limitations

associated with modelling assumptions under any of the future labour demand

scenarios considered. In particular, depending upon the methodology applied,

there may be data anomalies in the source data used to build the forecasts,

which then have the potential to become accentuated over time.

4.51 Whilst Experian and OE provide overall methodologies setting out their broad

assumptions in defining their local area based econometric models, they do not

disclose the many detailed assumptions they make concerning the local and

regional economy, along with the adjustments made to the raw data in order to

calculate such forecasts. Because of this, it is difficult to make robust

decisions concerning the comparative weight to attach to each forecast for

Staffordshire Moorlands.

25

HM Government (2016): The Midlands Engine Prospectus, page 6


12927647v5 P33

4.52 From a review of the two datasets, there are no apparent coding errors in the

data that would justify any amendments. Although the Experian projections

project what may appear to be very ambitious growth in certain advanced

manufacturing sectors when compared with the OE forecasts (and past

trends), it would be difficult to justify excluding this sectoral growth altogether.

This is due to the strong regional prospects for growth in these core LEP

sectors and the existence of existing successful companies in Staffordshire

Moorlands that specialise in the type of advanced manufacturing that is

targeted for growth.

4.53 On balance, it is considered that there is merit in taking forward a combination

of the two scenarios. It is stressed that taking an average level of growth for

individual sectors across the two projections is problematic due to the different

methodologies used, and should be treated with caution by SMDC.

4.54 With this caveat in mind, taking an average of the net land growth for the

OE/Experian scenarios would suggest a requirement for +6.6 ha to 2031 and

+8.8 ha to 2033. This is based on a net increase of 435 B-Class FTE jobs

(794 FTEs in total) over the period 2014-2031.

Table 4.9 Combined Land Requirements 2014-2031 and 2014-2033


2014-2031 2014-2033

Offices (B1a/b) 1.27 1.48

Manufacturing (B1c/B2) 5.88 6.04

Distribution (B8) -0.59 1.28

Total 6.56 8.79

Source: OE / Experian / NLP Analysis

Scenario 4) Past Trends

4.55 The Planning Practice Guidance states:

Plan makers should make an assessment of the likely change in job numbers

based on past trends and/or economic forecasts as appropriate and also

having regard to the growth of the working age population in the housing

market area.26

4.56 In line with Planning Practice Guidance and using OE 2016 data, past trends in

FTE job growth over the periods 2014-2031 (2,609) and 2014-2033 (2,930)

were considered. This FTE job growth was broken down by the key B-class

use groupings as before (B1a/B1c&B2/B8) and job density ratios applied to

each. The past trends scenario suggests growth in office FTE jobs (B1a) but

declining FTE jobs in industrial (B1c/B2) and warehousing (B8) land use.

Modelling these past trends suggests a need for +15,400 sqm or 3.87 ha to

2031 and +15,366 sqm or 3.84 ha to 2033.

26

2a-019-20140306


P34 12927647v5

Table 4.10 Past Trends FTE Job Growth based Net Employment Floorspace and Land Requirements 2014-2031/33

Staffordshire Moorlands District Net Floorspace Requirement

(sqm)


2014-2031 2014-2033 2014-2031 2014-2033

Offices (B1a/b) 11,230 12,344 2.81 3.09


-8,156 -10,020 -2.04 -2.50

Distribution (B8) 12,409 13,042 3.10 3.26

Total 15,482 15,366 3.87 3.84

Source: NLP Analysis

Scenario 5) Job Stabilisation

4.57 For this Scenario, it has been assumed that the District’s overall job growth will

stabilise over the coming years (i.e. zero job growth post 2014). An adjustment

has been made to the B-Class job forecasts on the basis that the latest OE

projections suggest a gradual shift away from employment based on traditional

B-Class land. Hence to maintain an overall zero net job growth (and based on

the trends outlined in Scenario 1), it has been assumed that B-Class job

growth will reduce by 433 to 2031, and -545 to 2033, to reflect this shift. All

other assumptions mirror those applied for scenarios 1 and 2, with the results

set out in Table 4.11.

Table 4.11 Job Stabilisation FTE Job Growth 2014-2031/33


(sqm)


2014-2031 2014-2033 2014-2031 2014-2033

Offices (B1a/b) 4,804 5,100 1.20 1.28


-19,681 -22,682 -4.92 -5.67

Distribution (B8) -3,754 -4,038 -0.94 -1.01

Total -18,632 -21,621 -4.66 -5.41


Scenario 6) Past Take Up Rates

4.58 Long term completion rates employment floorspace reflect market demand and

actual development patterns on the ground. For many situations, they can

provide a reasonable basis for informing future land needs, particularly where

land supply or demand has not been unduly constrained historically. However,

the future demand picture may not necessarily reflect past trends and some

adjustments may be needed.

4.59 Data on past completions and losses by B-class sector was provided by

SMDC. As Figure 4.4 illustrates, take-up of employment sites in Staffordshire

Moorlands District over the period 2007/08 to 2014/15 totalled 10.06 ha, or

1.26 ha per annum.


12927647v5 P35

4.60 Losses totalled 8.6 ha over the same time period (2007/08-2014/15), at a rate

of 1.08 ha annually, meaning that more employment land was developed than

was lost over the period, resulting in a 0.18 ha net increase in floorspace per

annum.

Figure 4.4 Past Take Up of Employment Land in Staffordshire Moorlands

Source: SMDC

4.61 This scenario simply assumes that future development rates of employment

space up to 2031 will be similar to those that have occurred in Staffordshire

Moorlands District over previous years (the period for which take-up

information is available for). However, it should be noted that the information

provided by SMDC covers a relatively short period (8 years) which may not

reflect longer term trends.

4.62 The calculation of the net employment land figure set out below is therefore

considered a relatively pessimistic approach. However, it can be used in this

instance due to the detailed information made available by the Council

regarding take up and losses of individual sites which allows a direct net

comparison to be made.

4.63 This approach produces a gross requirement in Staffordshire Moorlands

District for around 1.26 ha per annum gross, or around 0.18 ha per annum net.

The latter figure is equal to 3.06 ha over the 17-year period to 2031 or 3.42 ha

over the 19-year period to 2033. These floorspace projections are higher than

the OE econometric projections (Table 4.4).


P36 12927647v5

Table 4.12 Employment Floorspace and Land Requirements for Staffordshire Moorlands based on Past Trends Continuing, 2014-2031 and 2014-2033


(sqm)


2014-2031 2014-2033 2014-2031 2014-2033

Offices (B1a/b) 5,363 5,994 1.34 1.50


3,812 4,260 0.95 1.07

Distribution (B8) 3,065 3,425 0.77 0.86

Total 12,240 13,680 3.06 3.42


4.64 This approach assumes that past trends of development would continue

unchanged, which may not fully reflect changes in the economy as it returns to

growth. It may also underestimate future demand if the supply was constrained

in the past, for example because of few sites becoming available or

infrastructure / funding factors.

4.65 On the other hand, future development rates for industrial space may be less

than has been achieved historically as the sector rationalises and/or makes

more efficient use of space.

4.66 Clearly the recession and prolonged economic downturn (and the continued

uncertainty surrounding Brexit) have had a significant effect on the viability of

development schemes and in this regard Staffordshire Moorlands is no

different from the majority of other areas outside London and the Greater

South East.

4.67 Nevertheless, clearly the OE modelling work demonstrates limited (and indeed

negative for B2 and B8) prospects for growth for the B-class employment

sectors. The practical physical constraints and relative inaccessibility of certain

areas suggest that realistically, an upsurge in large developments in the

authority area is unlikely for the foreseeable future.

4.68 In addition, all of the following suggest that take up rates may not significantly

increase in the future:

1 The move towards a more Business Services-orientated economy with

significantly higher employment densities;

2 The future supply of land in the authority is particularly constrained by

topographical and environmental constraints;

3 The restructuring of the traditional manufacturing economy with the

potential for ‘recycling’ of older sites;

4 The Government’s measures to facilitate the change of use from B1a

office and B8 warehousing (and, from October 2017, B1c light industrial)

to residential without the need for planning permission;

5 The long term impacts of the economic downturn and uncertainty

surrounding the implications of Brexit;


12927647v5 P37

6 The significant reduction in public sector spending available to deliver

difficult brownfield sites; and,

7 The need to consider alternative uses for existing B-class sites (i.e. for

waste and recycling).

4.69 On balance, for Staffordshire Moorlands, it is suggested that the 0.18 ha net

annual past take up rate represents a valid figure going forward.

Scenarios 7 & 8) Labour Supply

4.70 It is also important to take into account how many jobs, and hence how much

employment space, would be necessary to broadly match forecast growth of

the resident workforce in the District. In contrast to the other approaches, this

approach focuses on the future supply of labour rather than the demand for

labour. This scenario then projects the amount of new jobs needed to match

the future working-age population, and how much employment space would be

needed to accommodate these jobs.

4.71 At the time of writing, a Strategic Housing Market Assessment [SHMA] Update

is being undertaken by NLP on behalf of Staffordshire Moorlands District

Council. Using the PopGroup demographic modelling tool and its outputs, two

main demographic scenarios have been identified for Staffordshire Moorlands

District that result in a need for 170 dpa and 196 dpa.

4.72 To translate this job growth27 into employment floorspace requirements, similar

assumptions concerning vacancy rates and employment densities as per the

econometric demand side forecasting work were applied to the job projections.

The following two scenarios have been modelled:

Scenario 7) Labour Supply (170 dpa)

4.73 This scenario models the 2014-based SNPP and applies the headship rates

within the 2014-based SNHP. Under this scenario, workforce jobs are

projected to be 35,485 in 2031 (a decline of 1,637 since 2014) and 35,357 in

2033 (a fall of 1,764).

Scenario 8) Labour Supply (196 dpa)

4.74 Under this scenario the 2014 and 2015 mid-year population estimates were

included as a population constraint in the requisite years. The population was

then rebased going forward applying the fertility, mortality and migration rates

from the 2014 SNPP. The workforce jobs are projected to decrease by 1,579

from 2014 to 2031 and by 1,704 from 2014 to 2033.

4.75 The results are presented in Table 4.13. Under these two scenarios,

addressing the future employment requirements of local residents would

require between –32,770 sqm and -33,234 sqm between 2014 and 2031, and

27

The labour supply scenarios are based on workforce job growth unlike scenarios 1,2,3 which use FTE job growth, hence slightly different job densities have been applied as per the HCA Guidance.


P38 12927647v5

between -37,312 sqm and -36,833 sqm of B-class employment space (net)

between 2014 and 2033 in Staffordshire Moorlands District.

Table 4.13 Staffordshire Moorlands District B-Class Net Floorspace Required from Labour Supply Growth Scenarios, 2014-31 and 2014-33

Use

Staffordshire Moorlands District

Scenario 7) 170 dpa Scenario 8) 196 dpa

2014-2031 2014-2033 2014-2031 2014-2033

Offices (B1a/b) 1,407 1,421 1,535 1,555

Industrial (B1c/B2) -27,739 -31,318 -27,503 -31,077

Warehousing (B8) -6,902 -7,416 -6,802 -7,311

Total -33,234 -37,312 -32,770 -36,833

Source: NLP

Table 4.14 Staffordshire Moorlands District B-Class Land Required from Labour Supply Growth Scenarios, 2014-31 and 2014-33

Use

Staffordshire Moorlands District

Scenario 7) 170 dpa Scenario 8) 196 dpa

2014-2031 2014-2033 2014-2031 2014-2033

Offices (B1a/b) 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.39

Industrial (B1c/B2) -6.93 -7.83 -6.88 -7.77

Warehousing (B8) -1.73 -1.85 -1.70 -1.83

Total -8.31 -9.33 -8.19 -9.31

Source: NLP

Convert Net to Gross Floorspace Requirements

4.76 To convert the net requirement for employment space into a gross requirement

(the amount of employment space or land to be allocated), an allowance is

also typically made for some replacement of losses of existing employment

space that may be developed for other, non B-Class uses in future. This is a

widely accepted approach in planning for future employment land needs.

4.77 A judgement was therefore made on the suitability and degree of the allowance

for future losses which it would be appropriate to apply here based on the

consultants’ understanding of supply-side deliverability factors in Staffordshire

Moorlands District and current trends in the market. Not all losses need

necessarily to be replaced as some will reflect restructuring in the local

economy as less space may be needed in some sectors in future. However,

some replacement is needed to refresh the quality of the stock and to avoid the

employment land supply continually declining.

4.78 There is an argument that not all such losses of employment land should

necessarily be replaced or reflected in an increased gross land requirement.

This would be on the basis that the stock of employment land in Staffordshire

Moorlands District contains some older sites less likely to meet future needs


12927647v5 P39

and is of a scale that reflects past industrial patterns, rather than the amounts

of land needed in future.

4.79 However, against this argument is the likelihood that other sites may also be

lost by 2031, and these will represent losses to the overall land portfolio,

reducing choice within the market. For instance, the District’s Strategic

Housing Land Availability Assessment [SHLAA] (dated 2015) provides an

indication of how many sites presently used for employment purposes may be

suitable for housing suitability over the period (to 2031). Based on the SHLAA,

SMDC advised that around 30 ha of employment land in Staffordshire

Moorlands may be lost to residential and mixed use development over the

period 2011 to 2031 or 1.5 ha annually.

4.80 Extant planning permissions relating to the loss of B-Class employment land to

alternative, usually higher value uses such as residential or retail can also lead

to future losses. In Staffordshire Moorlands over the past 2 years, extant

planning permissions account for around 1 ha of land that could be lost from

the employment land portfolio if/when the planning permission is implemented

in addition to the 0.26 ha that have already been lost during this time.

4.81 Whilst it is possible that not all of these identified developed and previously

developed sites will be lost to residential purposes, it is worth considering given

the recent introduction of Permitted Development Rights permitting streamlined

‘office-to-residential’ conversion, especially given that commercial agents have

pointed this out as being an issue (alongside the suggestion that a

considerable amount of the existing employment land stock in Staffordshire

Moorlands District is no longer fit for purpose and needs replenishing with

better quality units more suited to meeting modern operator requirements)28.

4.82 Balancing these considerations, it is suggested that a replacement factor of

1.08 ha per annum for Staffordshire Moorlands provides a reasonable basis to

go forward. It is accepted that the 1.5 ha loss replacement was factored into

the previous ELR’s analysis; however more recent data suggests that the level

of losses has continued to tail off over the past 2 years and as such a slightly

lower rate of replacement is considered appropriate in this instance.

4.83 This nevertheless indicates that our loss replacement figure may be on the

conservative side and it should therefore be monitored by the authority over

the next few years and adjusted as necessary to ensure that it is approximate

to future losses.

4.84 An alternative approach to calculating gross land requirements with a margin of

choice is to apply a rate of ‘churn’ equivalent to 1% of Staffordshire Moorlands

District’s existing stock per annum (see other local employment land studies

e.g. Lichfield District, Nuneaton and Bedworth). For Staffordshire Moorlands,

this could roughly equate to demand for around 1.35 ha per annum (based

upon 1% of 540,817 sq. m. of existing floorspace in the District and multiplied

28

Commercial Agents were engaged at the time of the Joint ELR Study in 2014 which is when these views were expressed.


P40 12927647v5

by 40% plot ratio), a figure that is just slightly above the 1.08 ha allowance for

losses identified above, which suggests the figure taken forward is reasonable.

Safety Margin

4.85 To estimate the overall requirement of employment space that should be

planned for in allocating sites, and to allow some flexibility of provision, it is

normal to add an allowance as a safety margin for factors such as delays in

some sites coming forward for development. This margin is a contingency

factor, providing a modest additional land buffer so that supply is not too tightly

matched to estimated demand, and so that shortages of land do not arise if

future demand turns out to be greater than the forecasts. Such flexibility is

sensible given the uncertainties in the forecasting process and the scope for

delays in developing employment space.29

4.86 The South East England Planning Partnership Board (SEEPB)30 guidance on

employment land assessments recommends an allowance that is equivalent to

the average time for a site to gain planning permission and be developed,

typically about two years. For Staffordshire Moorlands District, on the basis of

the gross take up analysis set out in the Past Take Up Scenario, the following

safety margins were added for B-class uses:

Table 4.15 Staffordshire Moorlands Safety Margin Allowances

All B-Class Uses Gross Average Annual Take-up (ha)

2-year Safety Margin Added 2014-2031

Staffordshire Moorlands 1.26 2.52


4.87 The model steps are summarised in Figure 4.5. The same steps described

above to convert the net employment projections from net to gross (with a 2

year margin of choice) have been applied to the net historic take up figures

described above for consistency.

29

This safety margin is separate from the consideration of vacancy rate which is dealt with in §7.20. 30

SEEPB Economic and Employment Land Assessments Supplementary Guidance Consultation Document, 2009. Although the SEEPB no longer exists and the formal status of this guidance is not established, it is considered to be a source of good practice.


12927647v5 P41

Figure 4.5 Staged Approach to Employment Land Requirements (2014-2031)

4.88 In summary, the demand-led range of indicative total gross land requirements

to 2031, factoring in a 2-year margin of choice, results in the following demand

projections for Staffordshire Moorlands:

Econometric demand led projections: 16.3 – 38.1 ha

Past Take Up: 24.0 ha

Labour Supply Projections: 12.6 – 12.7 ha

4.89 An extension of the modelling period by two years to 2033, factoring in a 2-

year margin of choice, increases the land requirement for each scenario as

follows:

Econometric demand led projections: 17.7 – 45.5 ha

Past Take Up: 26.5 ha

Labour Supply Projections: 13.8 – 13.9 ha

t

o

+31.98 ha

+ 1.99ha +18.4ha

Gross Employment Land Requirements

2014 - 2031

= 12.6 – 38.06

N

et

Req

uir

em

en

t

F

lexib

ilit

y M

arg

in

(2 y

ears

tak

e u

p)

Allo

wa

nc

e f

or

los

se

s

(1.0

8h

a p

er

an

nu

m)

-8.31 –

17.14 ha

+ 2.52 ha


P42 12927647v5

Table 4.16 Staffordshire Moorlands Gross Employment Land Comparisons 2014-31 and 2014-33

B1a/b B1c/B2 B8 TOTAL

1) OE Baseline

2014-2031 (net) 1.38 -4.60 -0.80 -4.03

2014-2031 (gross) 14.37

+ Flexibility factor 16.89

2) Past Trends

2014-2031 (net) 2.81 -2.04 3.10 3.87

2014-2031 (gross) 22.26


3) Experian

2014-2031 (net) 1.16 16.35 -0.37 17.14

2014-2031 (gross) 35.53


4) Combination Job Growth

2014-2031 (net) 1.27 5.88 -0.59 6.58

2014-2031 (gross) 24.95


5) Job Stabilisation

2014-2031 (net) 1.20 -4.92 -0.94 -4.66

2014-2031 (gross) 13.74


6) Past Take Up Rates

2014-2031 (net) 1.34 0.95 0.77 3.06

2014-2031 (gross) 21.45


7) Labour Supply (170 dpa)

2014-2031 (net) 0.35 -6.93 -1.73 -8.31

2014-2031 (gross) 10.09



2014-2031 (net) 0.38 -6.88 -1.70 -8.19

2014-2031 (gross) 10.20


1) OE Baseline

2014-2033 (net) 1.45 -5.36 -0.88 -4.78

2014-2033 (gross) 15.78


2) Past Trends

2014-2033 (net) 3.09 -2.50 3.26 3.84

2014-2033 (gross) 24.40


3) Experian

2014-2033 (net) 1.50 17.43 3.44 22.37

2014-2033 (gross) 42.93


4) Combination Job Growth

2014-2033 (net) 1.48 6.04 1.28 8.79

2014-2033 (gross) 29.35



12927647v5 P43

B1a/b B1c/B2 B8 TOTAL

5) Job Stabilisation

2014-2031 (net) 1.28 -5.67 -1.01 -5.41

2014-2031 (gross) 15.15


6) Past Take Up Rates

2014-2033 (net) 1.50 1.07 0.86 3.42

2014-2033 (gross) 23.98



2014-2033 (net) 0.36 -7.83 -1.85 -9.33

2014-2033 (gross) 11.23



2014-2033 (net) 0.39 -7.77 -1.83 -9.21

2014-2033 (gross) 11.35


Figure 4.6 Staffordshire Moorlands District Employment Land Projections (2014-2031)


P44 12927647v5

Figure 4.7 Staffordshire Moorlands District Employment Land Projections (2014-2033)

4.90 The labour supply projections for Staffordshire Moorlands District are illustrated

alongside the aforementioned econometric and past take up projections in

Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7. The labour supply projections, at around 13 ha to

2031 (gross) are below the broader range based on the demand-led

projections of 16 ha (Job Stabilisation) 17 ha (OE baseline), 24ha (based on

past take up rates), 25 ha (Past Trends), 27 ha for the Combined Job Growth

scenario and up to 38 ha for the Experian projections for the period 2014-2031.

Reality Check

4.91 Clearly the levels of future demand for B-use class land projected by the

various projections differ. The projections are largely trend-based; in particular,

the past take up has been (at least partly) recorded during an unprecedented

recession in the commercial market nationally. It is likely that the actual

performance of Staffordshire Moorlands District’s economy and commercial

property market will lie somewhere between the econometric and past trends

projections.

4.92 In order to provide a clearer steer as to what level of growth Staffordshire

Moorlands District should be planning for, it is important to apply a series of

reality checks.

Adjustments to Plot Ratios

4.93 The estimates of land requirements are clearly highly sensitive to the various

assumptions used. The job / floorspace ratios and plot ratios adopted here


12927647v5 P45

reflect those in the former ODPM guidance31. At present, it is assumed that

the plot ratio32 of 40% is generally applied to out-of-centre office space,

industrial space and warehousing.

4.94 If a lower level were applied to all types of employment land of, say, 30%, this

would make a modest difference to the overall net requirement of office

floorspace. However, given that the OE forecasts predict the strongest growth

for SMDC to be in administrative and support service activities, and with the

Framework’s requirement for office space to be located in town centres rather

than out of centre, this could point to plot densities increasing, rather than

decreasing in future. On this basis, it is considered reasonable to assume that

the majority of future development in the authority areas will be at plot ratios

closer to 40% than 30%.

Adjustments to the Margin of Choice

4.95 A more significant assumption in terms of sensitivity is the 2-year safety margin

added. A 2-year margin of choice may ordinarily be seen as being reasonable,

particularly in the light of the on-going economic uncertainties and the need to

provide market ready sites to prevent occupiers from moving beyond the

authority areas when searching for appropriate sites. Hence an increased

margin of choice would help to provide a balanced portfolio.

4.96 It should also be noted that the UK as a whole is likely to experience a period

of economic recovery in the coming years which may result in increased

demand for employment land beyond that projected by the various scenarios.

4.97 To consider the likely impact of increased demand a further sensitivity test was

modelled that excluded the vacancy rate. This resulted in a modest reduction

in the level of land required, of around 6%, which is within the margin for error

for such work and suggests that the approach taken is robust.

4.98 In summary, it is recommended that the approach taken in defining a two-year

margin of choice, incorporating an adjustment for vacancy, remains valid.

Conclusions

4.99 This report has appraised a range of employment land projections for

Staffordshire Moorlands District using a variety of methodologies in

accordance with Government Guidance.

4.100 It should be noted that the OE forecasts used in the production of this report

cover the areas of the Peak District National Park which fall within Staffordshire

Moorlands District. The employment land take-up and loss information covers

the area of the local authority outside of the National Park. However, it is not

considered that this anomaly has any discernible impact upon the findings

31

Employment Land Reviews Guidance Note, ODPM (2004) 32

A plot ratio is the total building square footage (building area) divided by the site size square meterage (area of the plot). Therefore, a plot ratio of 150% would indicate that the total floor area of a building is 1.5 times the gross area of the plot on which it is constructed. For practical purposes, this would equate to a 3 storey building with fifty percent plot coverage, the remaining plot area being occupied, for example, by access roads, parking and landscaping.


P46 12927647v5

because the majority of industrial centres in Staffordshire Moorlands District

are located outwith the National Park. In addition, the majority of jobs in the

National Park are related to non B class uses such as tourism and leisure

which do not have a direct impact upon the requirement and supply of B class

employment land.

4.101 It is also stressed that this report considers indigenous need for

employment land in Staffordshire Moorland District and does not

consider strategic employment land; the c.50 ha allocation at Blythe

Bridge is still required to meet wider sub-regional requirements.

4.102 It is important to identify an appropriate level of need that achieves a balance

between market realism and economic and planning policy objectives. A range

of qualitative and quantitative factors have been considered within this report

that can help to inform a judgment on the appropriate level of need, with the

key issues set out below33:

1 Staffordshire Moorlands benefits from a relatively high value

manufacturing base with linkages to sector expertise and clusters of

businesses. There are a high number of small businesses and

entrepreneurialism, combined with strong business survival rates. A

highly skilled workforce, combined with the exceptional Peak District

landscape and quality of life offer make the authority area an ideal

location for knowledge and creative businesses. The visitor economy is

a key sector and the local authority area provides a market for Peak

District businesses and branded products. This may result in a

requirement for B-class uses such as offices for tourism-related business

and manufacturing premises for niche food products.

2 There is a lack of good quality small to medium-sized industrial premises,

which is suppressing demand. In particular, the limited level of

development in recent years has restricted the availability of sites for

local businesses to expand.

3 Future realisable demand may be further restricted by the current poor

and ageing existing stock, lack of public investment in infrastructure, poor

access to many industrial estates/business parks, and weak inward

investment offering relative to adjoining areas (notably Stoke on Trent).

4 A high level of net out-commuting is also an issue in Staffordshire

Moorlands where 12,737 (previously 13,95634) more people commute out

to work than commute in. There is significant level of net out-commuting

to Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. The three authorities are

considered to constitute a FEMA based on methodology in the Planning

Practice Guidance (See Section 2.0 of this report). Therefore SMDC will

need to undertake discussions with the relevant neighbouring authorities

(Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-Under-Lyme) to satisfy their obligation

33

The key issues for Staffordshire Moorlands District were considered at the time of the joint SMDC and HP ELR Update in 2014, many of the issues remain unchanged. 34

Based on data from the 2001 Census


12927647v5 P47

under the duty to co-operate and confirm that each authority’s needs can

be met across the FEMA.

5 The job density ratio of 0.6435 (an increase from 0.55 at the time of the

2014 Joint ELR Update) in Staffordshire Moorlands District is very low

compared to the West Midlands average of 0.78. Rebalancing the land

uses of Staffordshire Moorlands District to ensure that more, and better

quality, jobs are provided could help to reverse this trend and ‘claw-back’

out-commuters, reducing net out-commuting rates (although this would

need to be a choice made by the authority and supported by corporate

decisions and policies in their economic strategy and emerging Local

Plan).

6 Labour supply analyses for Staffordshire Moorlands based on the

delivery of between 170 dpa and 196 dpa, indicates that the number of

economically active residents is forecast to increase slightly over the

coming years. On this basis, around 13 ha (gross) could be required up

to 2031 and around 14 ha (gross) up to 2033.

4.103 Consequently, on the basis of these considerations, for Staffordshire

Moorlands District, a range of between 13 ha and 27 ha (gross) of

employment land may be considered appropriate to 2031 and 14 ha and 32 ha

(gross) to 2033. This is approximate to Labour Supply scenario at the lower

end and a combination of projection at the top end, including past trends and

past take up rates.

4.104 We have noted earlier that caution should be applied before taking forward the

Combined Job Growth scenario; hence if SMDC were to allocate this level of

employment land it would need to monitor the situation closely to ensure that

the scale of job growth associated with this is realistic. The 27ha upper end of

the range is only slightly higher than the level that would be suggested by the

past take up of land, however, which would lend weight to the supposition that

it is not unreasonable.

4.105 The Joint ELR Update produced in 2014 concluded a range of between 25 ha

and 45ha (gross) of employment land may be considered appropriate to 2031

for Staffordshire Moorlands District. This was approximate to the Labour

Supply Scenarios at the lower end, and the OE Baseline/Policy On projections

at the top end.

4.106 The ranges are different particularly at the top end due to a number of changes

since the previous modelling work:

The latest OE (October 2016) projected job growth for Staffordshire

Moorlands District is +288 compared with +3,009 based on an earlier

(pre Brexit) model.

The modelling period has been shortened by 3 years (2014-2031) and 1

year (2014 – 2033).

35

A Jobs Density Ratio of 0.5 means that there are 0.5 jobs within the local authority for every resident of working age. The data is source is ONS, 2014


P48 12927647v5

Take up and losses have declined very significantly over the past couple

of years.

4.107 The updated range would synchronize with Staffordshire Moorlands District’s

housing needs identified in the emerging SHMA; meet previously identified

needs to revitalise current poor quality stock; help address the imbalance of

the portfolio in terms of the size of properties available; meet continued

demand for B2 floorspace (particularly from indigenous companies) and the

emerging digital and creative, and knowledge economy business service

sectors, whilst factoring in the continued economic uncertainty and the

practicalities of the physical constraints of the authority area which would

preclude a step-change in delivery.

4.108 If Staffordshire Moorlands District seeks to accommodate new developments

of large-scale warehousing schemes (which has not been the case in the past),

then this could necessitate higher levels of provision well above the current

portfolio such as the strategic site at Blythe Bridge.

4.109 Furthermore, it is recognised that the labour supply projections which link to

the Objectively Assessed Housing Need are at the lower end of this range.

Whilst it has been acknowledged that there is not a direct causal link between

housing and employment land requirements, there is nevertheless a need to

ensure that the two dovetail together to avoid any unsustainable outcomes.

4.110 As such, if Staffordshire Moorlands District was to consider going for the top

end of the employment land range, it would need to be mindful of the housing

implications by either considering a higher level of housing delivery, or

reviewing other policy interventions to minimise any adverse labour force and

economic implications. This could include the need to ‘claw back’ out-

commuters and planning for a mix of housing which encourages the retention

of residents of an economically active age or encourages younger

economically active people to move into Staffordshire Moorlands District.

4.111 It is recognised that this may be difficult to achieve and would therefore require

a strong policy intervention by the Local Authority, set out in its Local Plan.

This could include an aspiration to increase the job density in Staffordshire

Moorlands District to, 0.78 (up from 0.64 currently to equal the West Midlands

average), followed up by suitable policy measures such as the provision of

better quality employment opportunities, and monitored on a regular basis by

the Council to test whether the aspirations and policy measures remain

appropriate.

4.112 In terms of how the 13 – 27 ha range for Staffordshire Moorlands could be split

between the B1a/ B1b, B1c/B2 and B8 uses, it is not possible to directly

translate the net split in Table 4.16 into gross requirements, as the data is not

sufficiently robust to enable a precise breakdown of land lost/margin of choice

by use type. However, There are a number of conflicting considerations:

1 Between 2007/08 and 2014/15, past take up has totalled 2.59 ha / 56%

(B1 Use), 1.31 ha / 29% (B2 Use), 0.70 ha / 15% (B8 Use) plus a further

5.49 ha for Mixed B-uses.


12927647v5 P49

2 The latest OE (October 2016) FTE job growth forecasts project growth in

office based sectors such as IT, Professional Services and Administrative

& Supportive Services, and the most significant levels of decline in

Manufacturing and Public Administration.

3 The OE growth forecasts project that B1a floorspace will increase from

14.5% in 2014 to 16% in 2031; B1c/B2 is anticipated to decline from

20.6% in 2014 to 18.0% in 2031; and B8 from 5.7% to 5.3% over the

same period.

4 The OE growth forecasts indicate stronger growth in B1a/b office

floorspace requirements; a more modest decline in in B8 land

requirements; and a greater decline in demand for B2 industrial.

5 Alternatively, the Experian projections indicate much stronger growth in

B1c/B2 manufacturing, of 761 net jobs to 2031;

6 Based on the current ‘stock’ of floorspace in Staffordshire Moorlands

District, there is a considerable supply of industrial (B2/B8) units,

comprising 92% of all floorspace in the District, compared to 9% for

B1a/b office36.

7 Vacancy levels are high for office space, at around 14% of the total stock

across the District. In contrast, vacancy rates for industrial units are

much lower, at around 2%, representing supply shortage when

considered against demand.

8 Based on the current land use of B-class sites identified as having the

potential for redevelopment for non-employment uses in future through

the SHLAA, the majority relate to industrial sites.

4.113 On the basis of the (often conflicting) factors summarised above, it is

considered that an indicative split of around 50% for B1a/B1b office and the

remaining 50% for B1c/B2/B8 industrial/warehousing land could be

appropriate. This is broadly proportionate to past take up, reflecting the key

growth sectors in the OE (October 2016) projections, albeit set within a context

of an oversupply of office stock presently in the District.

4.114 This seeks to balance the replacement of some existing industrial stock with

aspirations for heightened demand in this sector going forward; the higher

growth in B1a/b office requirements, the decline of the industrial sector

reported by OE and the growth projected by Experian, and the slight negative

demand of B8 warehousing (albeit recognising that this ‘land hungry’ sector

requires a disproportionate amount of land relative to employment generated).

36

VOA statistics (2016)


P50 12927647v5

Advice for Staffordshire Moorlands District

This report does not seek to make a planning or policy judgement; this is a

matter for SMDC when taking account of the information before them. The

report therefore represents a first stage for further consideration of all relevant

factors through the Local Plan process.

On this basis, the recommended employment land requirement range for

SMDC is as follows:

13 ha – 27 ha 2014-2031.

14 ha – 32 ha 2014 -2033

The selection of the final figure will depend upon the preferred level of

employment growth for Staffordshire Moorlands District and its alignment with

housing needs. The identification of the number of new jobs that are to be

sought will be based upon the identification of policy aspirations relating to the

promotion of key sectors in accordance with the economic and spatial vision

for the area.


12927647v5 P51

5.0 Conclusion

5.1 This section draws together the key messages from the previous sections and

considers potential policy choices for the delivery of employment space in

Staffordshire Moorlands District.

5.2 The ELR was undertaken to provide SMDC with an updated evidence base to

inform the preparation of its emerging Local Plan. Since the original 2014 Joint

ELR was undertaken there have been a number of changes to the economy.

Unemployment claimant levels in Staffordshire Moorlands have improved,

reducing to 0.6% of the working age population. The economically active

population has increased to 84.6% from its previous base of 77.4%. There has

also been an increase in business start-up rates. Despite these recent

improvements to the economy, Staffordshire Moorlands is forecast to have

relatively flat employment growth up to 2031.

5.3 Staffordshire Moorlands has a very low self-containment rate (based on the

commuting patterns of the resident workforce), and cannot be considered to

constitute a self-contained FEMA as a consequence. Analysis of commuting

patterns in Section 2.0 suggests that it is instead part of the wider Stoke-on-

Trent TTWA. This means that SMDC must continue to cooperate with its

neighbouring authorities to ensure that the needs of businesses and its

residents are being met. This may be through a formal arrangement agreeing

employment land supply. Particular emphasis should be placed on its

relationships with Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. Pragmatically, it

is also vital that SMDC considers the supply and demand for employment

space within its own District boundaries. SMDC’s emerging Local Plan must

ensure there is sufficient local supply of employment land within the District for

its businesses to expand and grow.

Recommended Requirement

5.4 This report has considered a range of demand and labour supply-led

employment land scenarios for Staffordshire Moorlands. This has been

undertaken in line with the Practice Guidance. The range of B-Class

employment land required in SMDC ranges from 13 ha to 27 ha (gross) up to

2031, and between 14 ha and 32 ha (gross) up to 2033. This is approximate to

Labour Supply scenario at the lower end and Combined Job Growth, Past

Take Up / Past Trend projections at the top end. This range excludes the

Blythe Bridge strategic site which addresses wider sub-regional needs.

5.5 The ranges are lower than the estimates provided in the previous ELR. This is

due (in part) to a shorter modelling period, aligned with weaker levels of take

up and losses in recent years, whilst the latest OE projected job growth data is

also more pessimistic than before.

5.6 Furthermore, it is recognised that the labour supply projections which link to

the Objectively Assessed Housing Need are at the lower end of this range.


P52 12927647v5

Whilst it is acknowledged that there is not a direct causal link between housing

and employment land requirements, there is nevertheless a need to ensure

that the two dovetail together to avoid any unsustainable outcomes.

5.7 As such, if SMDC was to consider going for the top end of the employment

land range, it would need to be mindful of the housing implications by either

considering a higher level of housing delivery, or reviewing other policy

interventions to minimise any adverse labour force and economic implications.

This could include the need to ‘claw back’ out-commuters and planning for a

mix of housing which encourages the retention of residents of an economically

active age or encourages younger economically active people to move into the

District.

5.8 It is recognised that this may be difficult to achieve and would therefore require

a strong policy intervention by the Local Authority, set out in its Local Plan.

This could include an aspiration to increase the job density in Staffordshire

Moorlands District to meet the West Midlands average of 0.78.

5.9 The requirement for B-Class employment space is recommended to have an

indicative split of 50% for B1a/B1b office, 50% for B1c/B2/B8 industrial and

warehousing land could be appropriate. This is roughly proportionate to past

take up and reflects projected changes to employment, high office vacancy

rates as well as qualitative factors such as the need to replace existing

industrial stock.

Policy Implications

5.10 To meet the future requirements for office and industrial space in Staffordshire

Moorlands, it will be necessary for the Council to make choices about which

employment sites to protect or allocate for employment development or which

to bring forward as mixed-use schemes either in part or whole. These

judgements need to consider:

1 the local benefits of B class employment sectors and the need to sustain

a diversified and resilient economy that is able to capitalise on economic

growth opportunities as they arise;

2 the economic and market outcomes that would arise if particular sectors

become displaced from the economy, or are otherwise constrained from

expanding in the District;

3 the need to promote growth in high value employment roles/jobs that

require a skilled worked force in Staffordshire Moorlands, that meet the

aspirations of resident workers and supports the relatively productive

nature of the economy; and

4 the requirement to set targets for delivery of new B class employment

space particularly on strategic sites to provide clarity and certainty for

developers, which will require a practical assessment of what the market

can deliver at any point in time.


12927647v5 P53

5.11 For mixed-use allocations, masterplans and delivery strategies should be

developed to help ensure that the indicative quantum of employment

floorspace/land suggested is delivered in practice over the plan period.

Without this additional clarity, these sites could present a higher risk in terms of

their ability to meet business needs in Staffordshire Moorlands.

5.12 It is recommended that the Council should evidence how its portfolio of

allocations and other development opportunities will support delivery of new

space over the short, medium and long-term (structured broadly in five year

periods). This accords with the approach set out in the former SEEPB

guidance on employment land assessments which encouraged local

authorities to demonstrate a five-year rolling supply of employment land.

5.13 Where any gaps are identified, the Council will want to consider options for

how this can be addressed (potentially in the form of new allocations). It is

helpful for sites to be assessed on a consistent basis in order to determine at

broadly what point in the Plan period they may become available, and how

important any individual site is for meeting either office or industrial needs

within any rolling five-year period. It will also be important in establishing any

potential mismatch between identified allocations and those areas of the

District that attract the strongest levels of market demand. The different needs

between rural and urban areas should also be considered. For example, rural

areas are likely to generate a requirement for smaller and more flexible

employment space than larger settlements like Leek.

5.14 In determining the likely timing and availability of land, this delivery trajectory

should have regard to:

1 the planning status of sites (extant planning permission, allocation etc);

2 development constraints/costs and known requirements for infrastructure

(more detailed assessment work may be required);

3 current developer/landowner aspirations; and

4 market delivery and viability factors.

5.15 The assessment provides the opportunity to identify and map out the Local

Plan’s ‘when’, ‘whom’ and ‘how’ employment space delivery actions for each

site. In turn, it will also offer a basis to continually assess the potential role of a

site in meeting employment land and other Local Plan objectives (and, inter

alia, the policy benefits that would accrue if earlier delivery of the site was

encouraged). The trajectory should be linked to the annual monitoring process

and periodically updated to ensure the rolling supply of employment land

during the new Local Plan period.

5.16 The Blythe Bridge site has a strategic importance beyond the District boundary

and across the sub-region, and is designated as a Regional Investment Site.

This site should therefore be considered separate from the requirement range.

This approach would ensure that the District’s needs are being met whilst

inward investment opportunities can be protected and promoted.


P54 12927647v5

Appendix 1 Definition of B Class Sectors

The method used for re-categorising the employment forecasts by sector into

B-Class uses is summarised below.

Apportionment of B Class Sectors to Land Uses

Sector

Proportion of Jobs by Use Class

B1 office B2 industrial B8

warehousing

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B-Class

Extraction & Mining Non B-Class

Food, Drink & Tobacco 0% 100% 0%

Textiles & Clothing 0% 100% 0%

Wood & Paper 0% 100% 0%

Printing and Recorded Media 0% 100% 0%

Fuel Refining 0% 100% 0%

Chemicals 0% 100% 0%

Pharmaceuticals 0% 100% 0%

Non-Metallic Products 0% 100% 0%

Metal Products 0% 100% 0%

Computer & Electronic Products 0% 100% 0%

Machinery & Equipment 0% 100% 0%

Transport Equipment 0% 100% 0%

Other Manufacturing 0% 100% 0%

Utilities 88%

Construction of Buildings Non B-Class

Civil Engineering Non B-Class

Specialised Construction Activities

0% 48.7% 0%

Wholesale 0% 31.5% 59.9%

Retail Non B-Class

Accommodation & Food Services Non B-Class

Land Transport, Storage & Post 0% 0% 84.1%

Air & Water Transport Non B-Class

Recreation Non B-Class

Media Activities 100% 0% 0%

Telecoms 100% 0% 0%

Computing & Information Services

100% 0% 0%

Finance 100% 0% 0%

Insurance & Pensions 100% 0% 0%

Real Estate 100% 0% 0%

Professional Services 100% 0% 0%

Administrative & Supportive Services

39.1% 0% 0%

Other Private Services Non B-Class

Public Administration & Defence 10% 0% 0%

Education Non B-Class

Health Non B-Class

Residential Care & Social Work Non B-Class

Source: OE 2016 / NLP analysis


12927647v5 P55

Appendix 2 Oxford Economics Local Authority

District Forecasting Model (2015)


P56 12927647v5

Appendix 3 Experian Data Guide: UK

Regional Planning Service

(December 2016)


P2 12927647v5

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