73
Standard presentation format 1st quarter 2015
| Date post: | 19-Dec-2015 |
| Category: |
Documents |
| Upload: | maryann-carroll |
| View: | 215 times |
| Download: | 0 times |
Standard presentation format
1st quarter 2015
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Monetary policy External sector Banking sector
Central bank’s objectives and tasks
STABILITY OF PRICES SUPPORTING THE ECONOMIC POLICY OF THE
GOVERNMENT, WITHOUT PREJUDICE TO ITS PRIMARY OBJECTIVE
Management of the international reserves Issuing banknotes and coins Issuing and revoking licenses for banks and bank
supervision Regulating, improving and supervising the
payment system Performance of operations on behalf of the
Republic of Croatia, as provided by law
Independence of the CNB
Institutional: decisions are reached independently of other institutions’ influence
Functional: clear by defined goal and independence in choosing the instruments and measures for achieving that goal
Personal: guarantees the protection of the Governor and the Council members from various kinds of pressure, precisely determines the conditions for the appointment and removal from office, and guards against the conflict of interest
Financial: revenues and expenditures of the CNB are solely determined by the nature of the monetary and exchange rate policies
Structure of the CNB
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector
Aggregate demand and supply Labour market Prices Fiscal policy
Monetary policy External sector Banking sector
Real GDP rates of change
CroatiaCroatia Peer countriesPeer countries
Average annual growth rate, 2003 – 2013Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
* The data refer to the first three quarters of 2014.Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology, after 2012 are provisional. More information can be found on www.dzs.hrSource: CBS.
5.25.6
4.1 4.2 4.85.2
2.1
-7.4
-1.7
-0.3
-2.2
-0.9 -0.6
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
*
%
2.5
1.3
4.04.2
1.6
3.33.5
1.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
Cze
ch
R.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
%
Gross value added structure,in current prices, 2014*
* The data refer to the first three quarters of 2014.Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.Source: CBS.
Agriculture 3.8%
Industry 20.7%
Construction 5.0%
Trade, hotels and restaurants
22.0%
Information and communication
4.5%
Financial and insurance activites
6.9%
Real estate 10.3%
Professional service activities
8.4%
Public administration and defence
15.4%
Other service activities 3.1%
Contributions of domestic and net foreign demand to GDP growth
* The data refer to the first three quarters of 2014.Note: Due to the methodology of GDP calculation, real annual rate of change in the first half-year of 2014 is not equal to the sum of its components' contributions. The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.Source: CBS.
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
*
pe
rce
nta
ge
po
ints
Domestic demand
Net foreign demand
GDP
Unemployment rate
CroatiaCroatia ILO unemployment rate, peer countries, 2014*
ILO unemployment rate, peer countries, 2014*
* ILO unemployment rate – the first three quarters of 2014.Note: Since the beginning of 2007 results from the Labour Force Survey have been published in quarterly dynamics. ILO unemployment rate refers to persons aged 15 years and over. Data on ILO unemployment rate for the period 2007 – 2013 have been harmonised with the results of the Census of Population, Households and Dwellings in 2011 and are not comparable with data for the period 2000 – 2006Source: CBS.
* ILO unemployment rate – the first three quarters of 2014.Note: ILO unemployment rate refers to persons aged 15 – 74.Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
*
%
Registered unemployment rate
ILO unemployment rate02468
101214161820
Cze
ch
R.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
%
Nominal and real net wages
* Last available data is for wages paid for November.Sources: CBS and CNB.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
*
EU
R% Real growth rate – left
Nominal net wage – right
Total monthly labour costsin the economy, 2013
Total labour cost is shown as average monthly gross wage.Sources: CBS and national statistical offices.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Cze
ch
R.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
EU
R
Gross value added in industry per person employed
* The data refer to the first three quarters of 2014.Source: CBS.
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
*
pe
rce
nta
ge
ch
an
ge
GVA in industry
Employment
GVA in industry per personemployed
Inflation
CroatiaCroatia Year-on-year inflation rates and components’ contribution to consumer price inflation in
Croatia
Year-on-year inflation rates and components’ contribution to consumer price inflation in
Croatia
CPI inflation (1996-1998 RPI inflation) and core inflation, average year-on-year rate of change.Source: CBS.
Source: CBS.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
%
Core inflation
-2-10123456789
10
12
/07
3/0
86
/08
9/0
81
2/0
83
/09
6/0
99
/09
12
/09
3/1
06
/10
9/1
01
2/1
03
/11
6/1
19
/11
12
/11
3/1
26
/12
9/1
21
2/1
23
/13
6/1
39
/13
12
/13
3/1
46
/14
9/1
41
2/1
4
pe
rce
nta
ge
po
ints
EnergyUnprocessed foodProcessed foodIndustrial non-food without energyServicesConsumer price index (%)
Inflation in Croatia, eurozone and peer countries
Average year-on-year rate of change.Inflation is measured by harmonized consumer price index.Sources: CBS and Eurostat.
1.4 1.31.7
0.81.5
1.9
0.4
3.2
2.3
0.4 0.40.0 0.1
-0.1
0.4
-1.6
1.4
0.2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5C
zec
h R
.
Eu
rozo
ne
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
%
2013 2014
Consolidated general government revenues and expenditures
CroatiaCroatia Peer countries, 2013Peer countries, 2013
According to ESA 2010 methodologySources: Eurostat and CBS.
According to ESA 2010 methodology Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
0
10
20
30
40
50
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
% o
f G
DP
Revenues Expenditures
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Cze
ch
R.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
% o
f G
DP
Revenues Expenditures
Consolidated general government balance
CroatiaCroatia Peer countries, 2013Peer countries, 2013
Note: Overall fiscal balance (GFS 2001) in the 2002 – 2003 period is shown on a cash basis and from 2004 on modified accrual basis. For more information on the methodology of balance calculation see Box 4 in Bulletin 165.The amount of the overall fiscal balance in 2013 is corrected for the estimated amount of issued bonds which were recorded as provision of loans.Sources: Eurostat, CBS, MoF and CNB.
According to ESA 2010 methodology.Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% o
f G
DP
Overall fiscal balance, GFS 2001
Net lending/borrowing, ESA 2010-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Cze
ch
R.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
% o
f G
DP
General government debt
CroatiaCroatia Peer countries, 2013Peer countries, 2013
Government guaranteed debt includes other sectors' domestic and external debt guaranteed by central government (including HBOR).Source: Eurostat and CNB.
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% o
f G
DP
General government debt
General government debt including governmentguaranteed debt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Cze
ch
R.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
% o
f G
DP
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Monetary policy
Central bank’s policy Monetary developments Interest rates
External sector Banking sector
Foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate
Note: EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate and conversion factor (1.95583).Source: CNB.
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
-2,800-2,400-2,000-1,600-1,200
-800-400
0400800
1,2001,6002,0002,4002,800
1/1
/97
1/1
/98
1/1
/99
1/1
/00
1/1
/01
1/1
/02
1/1
/03
1/1
/04
1/1
/05
1/1
/06
1/1
/07
1/1
/08
1/1
/09
1/1
/10
1/1
/11
1/1
/12
1/1
/13
1/1
/14
1/1
/15
EU
R/H
RK
mill
ion
HR
K
Foreign exchange interventions - leftExchange rate - right
Exchange rate movements before CNB intervention and amount of intervention, 1996 –
2015
Exchange rate of the intervention day relative to exchange rate 4 days prior to intervention (y-axis) and the intervention amount (x-axis).Note: EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate and conversion factor (1.95583).Source: CNB.
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
EU
R/H
RK
ex
ch
an
ge
ra
te,
ch
an
ge
, %
intervention, in million HRK(positive value indicates that CNB buys foreign exchange)
Creation and withdrawal of reserve money
Note: Foreign exchange transactions include purchases and sales of foreign currency by the CNB with credit institutions, MF, EC and swap agreements. Positive values reflect the purchase of foreign currency. Values for the reverse repo transactions and lombard loans are shown as change in one quarter. Data for first quarter 2015 refer to January.Source: CNB.
-5-4-3-2-10123456789
Q1
/06
Q3
/06
Q1
/07
Q3
/07
Q1
/08
Q3
/08
Q1
/09
Q3
/09
Q1
/10
Q3
/10
Q1
/11
Q3
/11
Q1
/12
Q3
/12
Q1
/13
Q3
/13
Q1
/14
Q3
/14
Q1
/15
bill
ion
HR
KRegular reverse repo auctions and lombard loans
Foreign exchange transactions of the CNB
wit
hd
raw
al
cre
atio
n
Reserve requirements and minimum f/c liquidity
Shaded areas represent periods when banks' credit growth was regulated by compulsory CNB bills.Source: CNB.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1/02
1/03
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
1/08
1/09
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/13
1/14
1/15
%%
Reserve requirementMarginal reserve requirementMinimum foreign currency liquidity% of RR in f/c allocated in HRK
Liquidity surplus and overnight interest rate
Source: CNB.
012345678910
02468
10121416182022
1/06
7/06
1/07
7/07
1/08
7/08
1/09
7/09
1/10
7/10
1/11
7/11
1/12
7/12
1/13
7/13
1/14
7/14
1/15
bil
lio
n H
RK
%
Liquidity surplus (including overnight deposits with the CNB) – right
Overnight interbank interest rate – left
Base money M0
Source: CNB.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6/94
6/95
6/96
6/97
6/98
6/99
6/00
6/01
6/02
6/03
6/04
6/05
6/06
6/07
6/08
6/09
6/10
6/11
6/12
6/13
6/14
bill
ion
HR
K
Other deposits
Overnight deposits
CNB bills on obligatory basis
Statutory reserves in HRK
Settlement accounts
Credit institutions' cash in vaults
Currency outside credit institutions
CNB's international reserves and money supply
Source: CNB.
0123456789
1011121314
1/0
0
10
/00
7/0
1
4/0
2
1/0
3
10
/03
7/0
4
4/0
5
1/0
6
10
/06
7/0
7
4/0
8
1/0
9
10
/09
7/1
0
4/1
1
1/1
2
10
/12
7/1
3
4/1
4
1/1
5
bill
ion
EU
R
International reserves
Money supply
Credit institutions' assets
Source: CNB.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
4506/
94
7/95
8/96
9/97
10/9
8
11/9
9
12/0
0
1/02
2/03
3/04
4/05
5/06
6/07
7/08
8/09
9/10
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
1/15
bill
ion
HR
K
Claims on central governmentClaims on other domestic sectorsForeign assetsReserves and other assets
Placements to other domestic sectors(excluding government)
Placements to other domestic sectors
(excluding government)
Placements to other domestic sectors
(excluding government)
Placements to GDP ratioPlacements to GDP ratio
Note: In 2012 the Ministry of Finance took over shipyards' credit liabilities, while one credit institution transferred a part of its claims to a company indirectly owned by a parent bank, which substantially decreased total loans. Source: CNB.
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3/00
12/0
09/
016/
023/
0312
/03
9/04
6/05
3/06
12/0
69/
076/
083/
0912
/09
9/10
6/11
3/12
12/1
29/
136/
14%
bill
ion
HR
K
Placements – leftYear-on-year rate of change – right
0
20
40
60
80
100
Slo
ven
ia
Est
on
ia
Lat
via
Cro
atia
Bu
lgar
ia
Hu
nga
ry
Po
lan
d
Cze
ch R
.
Lit
hu
ania
Slo
vak
R.
Ro
man
ia
%
2012 2013
Loans of other monetary financial institutions
year-on-year rate of changeNote: In 2012 the Ministry of Finance took over shipyards' credit liabilities, while one credit institution transferred a part of its claims to a company indirectly owned by a parent bank, which substantially decreased total loans to corporate sector.Source: CNB.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
501
/00
1/0
1
1/0
2
1/0
3
1/0
4
1/0
5
1/0
6
1/0
7
1/0
8
1/0
9
1/1
0
1/1
1
1/1
2
1/1
3
1/1
4
%
Household loans
Corporate loans
Loans to households - structure
Source: CNB.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1603/
049/
043/
059/
053/
069/
063/
079/
073/
089/
083/
099/
093/
109/
103/
119/
113/
129/
123/
139/
133/
149/
14
bill
ion
HR
K
Mortgage loans Car loans Other loans Housing loans
Currency structure of other monetary financial institutions' placements
Note: Loans in foreign currency include loans denominated in that currency and loans indexed to that currency.Source: CNB.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
3/02
9/02
3/04
9/03
3/04
9/04
3/05
9/05
3/06
9/06
3/07
9/07
3/08
9/08
3/09
9/09
3/10
9/10
3/11
9/11
3/12
9/12
3/13
9/13
3/14
9/14
%
EUR CHF HRK Other currencies
Broad money (M4)
* Up to November 2010, kuna deposits with a currency clause are included in kuna deposits, and from December 2010 on, they are included in f/c deposits.Source: CNB.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/9
7
1/9
8
1/9
9
1/0
0
1/0
1
1/0
2
1/0
3
1/0
4
1/0
5
1/0
6
1/0
7
1/0
8
1/0
9
1/1
0
1/1
1
1/1
2
1/1
3
1/1
4
bill
ion
HR
K
Bonds, money marketinstruments and MMFs sharesF/c deposits*
Kuna deposits
Money supply (M1)
Euroisation
Source: CNB.
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1/97
1/98
1/99
1/00
1/01
1/02
1/03
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
1/08
1/09
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/13
1/14
%
Share of f/c deposits in total savings and time deposits
Share of f/c deposits in M4
excluding kuna deposits with a currency clause
Average lending interest rates
Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014 (http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/hbilt204.pdf).Source: CNB.
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
221
2/9
9
9/0
0
6/0
1
3/0
2
12
/02
9/0
3
6/0
4
3/0
5
12
/05
9/0
6
6/0
7
3/0
8
12
/08
9/0
9
6/1
0
3/1
1
12
/11
9/1
2
6/1
3
3/1
4
12
/14
%
Short-term corporate loans without a currency clauseShort-term household loans without a currency clauseLong-term corporate loans with a currency clauseLong-term household loans with a currency clause
Average deposit interest rates
Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014 (http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/hbilt204.pdf).Source: CNB.
0
2
4
6
8
10
121
2/9
9
9/0
0
6/0
1
3/0
2
12
/02
9/0
3
6/0
4
3/0
5
12
/05
9/0
6
6/0
7
3/0
8
12
/08
9/0
9
6/1
0
3/1
1
12
/11
9/1
2
6/1
3
3/1
4
12
/14
%
Kuna time depositsForeign currency time depositsKuna sight depositsForeign currency sight deposits
methodology changed as of 1 January 2011
Interest rate spread
* without a currency clause** with a currency clauseNote: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014 (http://http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/ebilt204.pdf).Source: CNB.
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
12
/99
9/0
0
6/0
1
3/0
2
12
/02
9/0
3
6/0
4
3/0
5
12
/05
9/0
6
6/0
7
3/0
8
12
/08
9/0
9
6/1
0
3/1
1
12
/11
9/1
2
6/1
3
3/1
4
12
/14
pe
rce
nta
ge
po
ints
Kuna loans* - kuna deposits*Kuna loans** - f/c depositsTotal loans - total deposits
methodology changed as of 1 January 2002
methodology changed as of 1 January 2011
Yield on T-bills and kuna government bond
T-bills, bonds - average price in a month.Note: Details about calculation of yield to maturity: Bulletin 207, October 2014 (http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-207/ebilt207.pdf).Sources: MoF and ZSE.
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
1/0
3
9/0
3
5/0
4
1/0
5
9/0
5
5/0
6
1/0
7
9/0
7
5/0
8
1/0
9
9/0
9
5/1
0
1/1
1
9/1
1
5/1
2
1/1
3
9/1
3
5/1
4
1/1
5
T-bill – 91 day T-bill – 182 days T-bill – 364 days T-bill – 728 days
BND – 5 years BND – 7 years BND – 10 years BND – 6 years
Bonds listed on the ZSE
Stock as at 19 February 2015.* With call optionSource: ZSE.
IssuerYear of issue
Original maturity
CurrencyNominal
value (millions)
Nominal interest
rateIssuer
Year of issue
Original maturity
CurrencyNominal
value (millions)
Nominal interest
rate
State Corporate
Republic of Croatia 2004 15 years EUR 1,000 5.375% Ingra d.d. 2006 10 years HRK 162 6.125%
Republic of Croatia 2005 10 years EUR 350 4.250% Atlantic grupa d.d. 2011 5 years HRK 115 6.750%
Republic of Croatia 2005 10 years HRK 5,500 5.250% Hrvatska elektroprivreda d.d. 2007 10 years HRK 700 6.500%
The City of Rijeka 2006 10 years EUR 25 4.125% Metronet telekomunikacije d.d. 2009 13 years EUR 10 4.500%
Republic of Croatia 2007 10 years HRK 5,500 4.750% Hospitalija trgovina d.d. 2010 7 years EUR 8 9.750%
The City of Vinkovci 2007 10 years HRK 42 5.500% Erste&Steiermärkische banka d.d. 2011 6 years EUR 80 6.500%
The City of Osijek 2007 10 years HRK 25 5.500% Jadran Galenski laboratorij d.o.o. 2011 5 years HRK 140 4.800%
The City of Split 2007 8 years EUR 8 4.750% HP-Hrvatska pošta d.d. 2012 3 years HRK 400 7.750%
The City of Split 2008 9 years EUR 8 6.000% Jadrolinija d.d. 2012 5 years EUR 11 6.500%
Republic of Croatia 2010 10 years HRK 5,000 6.750% Plodine d.d. 2012 3 years HRK 62 9.000%
Republic of Croatia 2010 10 years EUR 1,000 6.500% Erste&Steiermärkische banka d.d. 2012 5 years HRK 300 5.875%
Republic of Croatia 2010 7 years HRK 4,000 6.250% Institut IGH d.d. 2012 5 years EUR 10 9.000%
Republic of Croatia 2011 5 years HRK 3,500 5.750% NETA Capital Croatia d.d.* 2013 unspecif ied HRK 2 8.000%
Republic of Croatia 2011 11 years EUR 1,000 6.500% HP-Hrvatska pošta d.d. 2014 5 years HRK 400 5.125%
Republic of Croatia 2013 5 years HRK 6,000 5.250% Dalekovod d.d. 2014 15.3 years HRK 16 4.000%
Republic of Croatia 2013 11 years EUR 1,400 5.750% Dalekovod d.d. 2014 15.3 years EUR 1 4.000%
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Monetary policy External sector
Exchange rate Foreign trade Current account External debt FDI
Banking sector
Exchange rate policy
Managed floating Exchange rate is market determined and based
on supply and demand Central bank intervenes on the forex market
through forex auctions, but it DOES NOT defend any predetermined rate or band
Foreign exchange market
Kuna is fully convertible No restrictions on repatriation of profits and
liquidation of investments Banks freely determine the exchange rate,
engage in the foreign exchange operations and conduct international payment transactions
Current account deficit and FDI
According to BPM6 and ESA2010 methodology. Negative values of current account deficit indicate a surplus on the current account.Source: CNB.
2.22.9
7.1
5.9
4.0
5.2
6.57.1
8.8
5.1
1.1 0.8
0.1
-0.8-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
% o
f G
DP
Current accountdeficit (in % of GDP)
FDI liabilities (in %of GDP)
Structure of the current account balance
Source: CNB.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
bill
ion
EU
R
GoodsServicesPrimary incomeSecondary incomeBalance
Current account balance by countries, 2013
Sources: Eurostat, CNB and central banks' websites.
-1.4
4.1
-1.3
1.8
5.6
3.0
-0.8
0.8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Cz
ech
R.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lga
ria
Ro
ma
nia
Cro
ati
a
% o
f G
DP
Daily nominal exchange rates HRK vs. EUR, USD and CHF
Source: CNB.
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.51
/1/0
5
1/1
/06
1/1
/07
1/1
/08
1/1
/09
1/1
/10
1/1
/11
1/1
/12
1/1
/13
1/1
/14
1/1
/15
CN
B m
idp
oin
t e
xch
ang
e r
ate
EUR/HRK
USD/HRK – right
CHF/HRK – right
Index of nominal and real effective kuna exchange rate
The real effective exchange rate of the kuna deflated by producer prices is based on the Croatian index of industrial producer prices on the non-domestic market, which is available from January 2010.In 2014 CNB revised the effective exchange rates of the kuna by extending the basket of the main trading partner countries and applying time varying weights. The fall of index denotes appreciation of the kuna.Source: CNB.
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q1
/05
Q3
/05
Q1
/06
Q3
/06
Q1
/07
Q3
/07
Q1
/08
Q3
/08
Q1
/09
Q3
/09
Q1
/10
Q3
/10
Q1
/11
Q3
/11
Q1
/12
Q3
/12
Q1
/13
Q3
/13
Q1
/14
Q3
/14
ind
ex,
201
0 =
100
ind
ex,
200
1 =
100
NominalReal, consumer pricesReal, unit labour costs in total economyReal, producer prices - rightReal, unit labour costs in manufacturing
Index of real effective exchange rate deflated by CPI
The fall of index denotes real effective appreciation.Sources: BIS and CNB.
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q1
/05
Q3
/05
Q1
/06
Q3
/06
Q1
/07
Q3
/07
Q1
/08
Q3
/08
Q1
/09
Q3
/09
Q1
/10
Q3
/10
Q1
/11
Q3
/11
Q1
/12
Q3
/12
Q1
/13
Q3
/13
Q1
/14
Q3
/14
ind
ex,
200
5 =
100
Czech R. Hungary Poland
Romania Croatia
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q1
/05
Q3
/05
Q1
/06
Q3
/06
Q1
/07
Q3
/07
Q1
/08
Q3
/08
Q1
/09
Q3
/09
Q1
/10
Q3
/10
Q1
/11
Q3
/11
Q1
/12
Q3
/12
Q1
/13
Q3
/13
Q1
/14
Q3
/14
ind
ex,
200
5 =
100
Bulgaria Estonia Latvia
Lithuania Slovak R. Slovenia
Merchandise trade
Seasonally adjusted data.Sources: CBS and CNB.
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1/98
11/9
8
9/99
7/00
5/01
3/02
1/03
11/0
3
9/04
7/05
5/06
3/07
1/08
11/0
8
9/09
7/10
5/11
3/12
1/13
11/1
3
9/14
mill
ion
EU
R
Exports (f.o.b.)
Imports (c.i.f)
Balance
Gross external debt by debtors
Note: Gross external debt data is in line with the new methodology prescribed by the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) and the new sector classification of institutional units in line with ESA 2010.Source: CNB.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
10
/14
bill
ion
EU
R
General governmentCroatian National BankDeposit-taking corporations, except the central bankOther sectorsDirect investments
Gross external debt by creditors
Note: Gross external debt data is in line with the new methodology prescribed by the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) and the new sector classification of institutional units in line with ESA 2010.Source: CNB.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
10
/14
bill
ion
EU
R
Debt securities
Currency and deposits
Official creditors
Private creditors
Estimated future principal and interest payments
by debtors
* Data for 2014 refer to repayments made until end-October 2014 and projected repayments for the rest of 2014. Data doesn't include arrears.Note: Gross external debt data is in line with the new methodology prescribed by the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) and the new sector classification of institutional units in line with ESA 2010.Source: CNB.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
14
*
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Oth
er
bil
lio
n E
UR
General government
Croatian National Bank
Deposit-taking corporations, exceptthe central bankOther sectors
Direct investments
International reserves in EUR and in months of imports of goods and services
Source: CNB.
3.8
5.3 5.76.6 6.4
7.4
8.79.3 9.1
10.4 10.711.2 11.2
12.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
bill
ion
EU
R
mo
nth
s o
f im
po
rts
International reserves (in months of imports)
International reserves (in bil. EUR)
External debt ratios
Note: Gross external debt data is in line with the new methodology prescribed by the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) and the new sector classification of institutional units in line with ESA 2010.Source: CNB.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
%
Outstanding external debt/GDP
External debt service/Exportsof goods and services
Outstanding externaldebt/Exports of G&S
External debt ratios by countries, 2013
Outstanding external debt/Exports of G&S
Outstanding external debt/Exports of G&S
Outstanding external debt/GDPOutstanding external debt/GDP
Sources: Eurostat, CNB and central banks’ websites.
82.0
133.5 151.9
86.4
147.9 131.6171.0
244.9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Cze
ch R
.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
% 63.1
118.5
70.182.2
110.5
90.0
68.0
105.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Cze
ch
R.
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Slo
va
k R
.
Slo
ve
nia
Bu
lgar
ia
Ro
man
ia
Cro
atia
%
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
* Preliminary dataSource: CNB.
511
842
1,338
1,124 1,0991,019
1,593
1,044
1,434
2,615
3,377
3,700
2,303
1,0691,036
1,134
741
2,637
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
Q1–
Q3/
14*
mill
ion
EU
R
FDI, net incurrence of liabilitiesby country of origin
* Preliminary dataSource: CNB.
-1,000-500
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
Q1–
Q3/
14*
mill
ion
EU
R
2004 EU member countriesEU 15European developing countriesInternational financial institutionsOther developed countriesOther developing countriesOther countries
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
1993 – Q3/2014* (29,271.2 million EUR)
1993 – Q3/2014* (29,271.2 million EUR)
* Preliminary data** Refers to unknown country of originSource: CNB.
2004 EU member countries
14.5%
EU 1572.7%
European developing countries
1.5%
International financial
institutions1.2%
Other developed countries
6.9%
Other developing countries
0.2%
Other countries**
3.0%
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
Q1 – Q3/2014* (2,637.5 million EUR)
Q1 – Q3/2014* (2,637.5 million EUR)
* Preliminary dataSource: CNB.
Netherlands 81.0%
Austria 5.5% Hungary 1.4%Russian
Federation 1.3%
Slovenia 1.2%
Switzerland 1.1%
Ireland 1.1%
Italy 1.0%
United Kingdom 1.0%
France 0.9%
Other countries 4.5%
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
1993 – Q3/2014* (29,271.2 million EUR)
1993 – Q3/2014* (29,271.2 million EUR)
* Preliminary dataSource: CNB.
Financial intermediation, except insuranceand pension funds
Other business activities
Wholesale trade and commission trade
Real estate activities
Post and telecommunications
Manufacture of chemicals and chemicalproducts
Manufacture of coke, refined petroleumproducts
Retail trade
Real estate investments
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineralproducts
Other activities
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
Q1 – Q3/2014* (2,637.5 million EUR)
Q1 – Q3/2014* (2,637.5 million EUR)
* Preliminary dataSource: CNB.
Other business activities
Retail trade, except of motor vehiclesand motorcycles; repair of personaland household goodsConstruction
Real estate
Manufacture of chemicals and chemicalproducts
Financial intermediation, exceptinsurance and pension funding
Post and telecommunications
Hotels and restaurants
Manufacture of coke, refined petroleumproducts and nuclear fuel
Manufacture of other non-metallicmineral products
Other activities
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Monetary policy External sector Banking sector
Size, structure and concentration Leverage ratio and capital adequacy Profitability Coverages Structure of loans and deposits by institutional
sectors
Total assets of the banking system
Source: CNB.
260.3
304.6
345.1370.1
378.4 391.1 406.9 399.9 397.9 399.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Q3
/14
bill
ion
HR
K
Number of banks
Source: CNB.
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
18 16 15 16 17 1613 13 12 11
1415 16 16 15 15
17 16 16 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
402
00
5
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Q3
/14
Foreign owned banksPrivate domestic banksState owned banks
Banking system by ownership
Source: CNB.
3.4 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.35.3 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.4 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.7
91.3 90.8 90.4 90.6 90.9 90.3 90.6 90.1 89.7 90.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Q3
/14
% o
f to
tal
as
se
ts
Foreign owned banks
Other private domestic banks
State owned banks
Concentration index
share of assets of the 2(4) largest banks in total assets
share of assets of the 2(4) largest banks in total assets
Source: CNB.
43.0 41.3 40.9 41.6 41.7 42.0 42.3 43.3 43.4 43.5
64.9 64.1 63.9 64.8 65.2 65.3 66.4 66.9 66.8 66.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
802
00
5
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Q3
/14
% o
f to
tal
as
se
ts
Two largest banks
Four largest banks
Herfindahl – Hirschman index (HHI)
Source: CNB.
1,357.91,296.5 1,277.7 1,308.9
1,366.4 1,361.71,400.6 1,427.2 1,440.5 1,429.6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Q3
/14
All banks
Leverage ratio
equity capital/total assetsequity capital/total assets
Source: CNB.
8.89.7
11.5
13.0 13.7 13.9 13.8 14.0 14.1 13.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Q3
/14
%
Capital adequacy ratio
regulatory capital/total exposure to risksregulatory capital/total exposure to risks
Source: CNB.
14.62 13.98
16.3615.16
16.43
18.78 19.5520.89 21.04 21.32
0
5
10
15
20
2520
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Q3
/14
%
ROAA and ROAE
Source: CNB.
1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.20.8
0.2 0.7
15.1
12.4
10.99.9
6.46.5 6.9
4.8
0.8
3.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
162
00
5
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Q3
/14
%
ROAA before tax
ROAE after tax
Classification of placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of banks
Source: CNB.
96.0 96.8 96.9 96.7 94.7 92.1 91.0 89.8 88.4 87.8
4.0 3.2 3.1 3.3 5.3 7.9 9.0 10.2 11.6 12.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1002
005
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
Q3
/14
%
Risk category A Risk categories B-1, B-2, B-3 and C
Coverages
Coverage 1 = Total value adjustments and provisions/Total placements and off-balance sheet liabilitiesCoverage 2 = Value adjustments and provisions / B -1, B-2, B-3 and C placements and off-balance sheet liabilitiesSource: CNB.
3.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 3.2% 4.1% 4.7% 5.3% 6.3% 7.0%
58.2%54.8%
51.5%46.6% 43.4%
40.9% 42.8% 43.9%47.5%
50.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
Q3/
14
Coverage 1
Coverage 2
Structure of extended loans (gross)by institutional sectors
30 September 201430 September 2014
* Includes non-profit institutions serving households.Source: CNB.
Government units13.6%
Financial institutions
2.5%
Enterprises38.0%
Households*44.5%
Other 1.5%
Structure of received depositsby institutional sectors
30 September 201430 September 2014
Source: CNB.
Government units2.6% Financial
institutions6.4%
Enterprises16.1%
Non-profit institutions
1.2%
Households61.3%
Non-residents12.4%
