Stanford University - E-Mobility - The future of the automobile. Presentation held by Sven Beiker, Director CARS - Stanford University, on October 26th, 2011at Stanford University at the E-Mobility Symposium organized by the German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg.
E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile? How Much Electrification Do We Need, And Why Are We Doing This Again? Dr. Sven A. Beiker Executive Director, Center for Automotive Research at Stanford - CARS 416 Escondido Mall, Bldg 550/Room 131, Stanford, CA 94305-4021, USA (+1)650 736-1504, [email protected], http://automotive.stanford.edu Baden-Württemberg Forum „E-Mobility“ Stanford University October 24, 2011 CARS Center for Automotive Research at Stanford [email protected], http://automotive.stanford.edu
Transcript
E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile? How Much Electrification Do We Need, And Why Are We Doing This Again?
Dr. Sven A. Beiker Executive Director, Center for Automotive Research at Stanford - CARS 416 Escondido Mall, Bldg 550/Room 131, Stanford, CA 94305-4021, USA (+1)650 736-1504, [email protected], http://automotive.stanford.edu
Baden-Württemberg Forum „E-Mobility“ Stanford University October 24, 2011
CARS Center for Automotive Research at Stanford [email protected], http://automotive.stanford.edu
Electric Vehicle / Mobility Research At Stanford
School of Engineering: Life Cycle Assessment Consumer Purchase Criteria Battery Technology
Grad. School of Business: Policies for Electric Mobility Consumer Purchase Behavior
School of Human. & Sciences: Driver Education & Anxiety Battery Technology
School of Earth Sciences: Driving Patterns & Range
Which Problem(s) Are We Trying To Solve?
Under which conditions does electric mobility:
• slow down global warming?
• decrease dependence on (foreign / scarce) resources?
Average Daily Miles Traveled – Rational Consideration?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Germany US
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]
Cum
ulat
ive
Dai
ly D
ista
nce
/ Tot
al [%
]
Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
Actual Considerations For Vehicle Purchase
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10
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15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Germany US
Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]
Cum
ulat
ive
Dai
ly D
ista
nce
/ Tot
al [%
]
Short- vs. Long-Term Considerations For Car Choice
ICE 59%
Hybrid 16%
Plug-In Hybrid
2%
Electric 20%
None 3%
1. What powertrain concept will you buy as your next car?
ICE 6%
Hybrid 4%
Plug-In Hybrid 11%
Electric 77%
None 2%
2. Which car would you choose for a test drive next weekend?
Source: poll among 55 students in class ME302, January 2011
US / EU Surveys: EV Revolution Not Happening, Yet
Consumers are not ready for EVs or are EVs not ready for consumers?
Challenges US consumers see regarding electric vehicles [1] 28% range and battery life 20% availability of charging stations 17 % total cost/affordability 9% high [purchase] cost of vehicles
Challenges EU industry experts see regarding electric vehicles [2] 65% range 57% availability of charging stations 55% total cost/affordability 30% not suitable for everyday driving
Analysts expect EVs to have 2% to 3% share of the new-car market by 2020 [3]
[1] “Energy + Environment Study”, Market Strategies International, Nov 2010 (1,168 interviews U.S. nationwide, Oct 14-25, 2010) [2] “European Automotive Survey 2011”, Ernst & Young, Aug 28, 2011 [3] “Are Americans Willing to Try Electric Cars?”, The Wall Street Journal, Dec 1, 2010
Research To Understand / Help Consumer Concerns
School of Engineering: Life Cycle Assessment Consumer Purchase Criteria Battery Technology
Grad. School of Business: Policies for Electric Mobility Consumer Purchase Behavior
School of Human. & Sciences: Driver Education & Anxiety Battery Technology
School of Earth Sciences: Driving Patterns & Range
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Range Anxiety, EV Research, And Lifecycle Emissions
Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
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15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Germany US
R&D Focus for Electric Vehicles Typical Driving
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]
Cum
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Dai
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ista
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/ Tot
al [%
]
Which Vehicle Is The Most Sustainable?
CV
H
EV
P
HE
V20
P
HE
V60
B
EV
240
CV
H
EV
P
HE
V20
P
HE
V60
B
EV
240
CV
H
EV
P
HE
V20
P
HE
V60
B
EV
240
BASE CASE US Avg Grid Mix
OPTIMISTIC Zero-Emission Power Plant
PESSIMISTIC Coal Fired
Power Plant
Oil Premium Military Monopsony Disruption
Externality Damage
VOC SO2 PM2.5 PM10 NOx CO GHGs
Source: J. Michalek et al, “Valuation of plug-in vehicle life-cycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 2011
Life-Cycle Emissions Externality Damages and Oil Premium Costs
Vehicle Types CV Conventional PHEV20 Plug-In 20km E-Range HEV Hybrid Electric PHEV60 Plug-In 60km E-Range
BEV240 Battery 240km Range
$10K
$8K
$6K
$4K
$2K
$0
Resources
Climate
Pollution
“Green” Vehicles Are Here –Which Is “The One”?
E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile?
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