State of Global Climate

Dr R K Pachauri

Chairman IPCC & Director General TERI

WMOUNEP

Indicators of a warming earth - up to now

• Increase in global mean surface temperature by over 0.6oC (highly likely)

• Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 10 to 15% and thickness decreased by 40% (likely)

• Snow cover decreased in area by 10% since observation started in 1960 (very likely)

• Coral reef bleaching

• 1990s the warmest decade of the millenium (likely)

Source:TAR Synthesis Report

Trends in earth surface temperature

Source: IPCC, TAR

Spatial distribution of climate change

Over the century most warming is observed over mid- and high latitude Asia and parts of western Canada Source: IPCC TAR

Evidence of human intervention

Source: IPCC, TAR

Increasing trend of GHG concentration - CO2

• Atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased by 31% upto 1999 since the industrial revolution

• Today’s concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not in the past 20 million years

• The average rate of increase since 1980 has been 0.4% annually

Source: IPCC TAR

The TAR conclusions

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities

Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning are virtually certain to be the dominant influence on the trends in the atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century

And

Future emissions scenarios - SRES

Four different story lines characterized by different socio economic assumptions result in different levels of future GHGs and aerosol

They do not assume additional climate initiatives but future emissions are driven by non climate policies designed for other purposes

The SRES includes four marker scenarios A1, A2, B1,B2

IPCC TAR, WGI

Emissions Concentration

Characteristics of a changing climate

• Shift in mean climate parameters

Source: IPCC TAR

• Change in temperature variance

Source: IPCC TAR

Source: IPCC TAR

Impacts of warming

• far reaching effects on different

sectors

• not uniform throughout the globe

• impacts may be both beneficial and adverse

Impacts

Source: GRID Arendal

Illustration Scientific American

Impact on food production systems

Assessment of impacts on fisheries

Source:NOAA PFEL

• Reduced stream flow in rivers

• reduces water running through the turbine and also

• lowers reservoir levels that reduce the water pressure which in turn reduces the power produced by a given amount of water

•Changes in flow regime of rivers - affects generation

Impacts on hydropower potentialImpacts on hydropower potential

Redemption at hand ?

‘Significant technical progress relevant to GHG gas emissions reduction has been made since 1995 and has been faster than anticipated’

Source: IPCC TAR, WGIII

Mitigating Climate changeClimate change is a problem with unique characteristics

• It is global• It is long term• Large uncertainties associated with it• Involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental,

economic, political, institutional, social and technological processes

• Climate change mitigation policies implemented at the national level will, both be affected by, and have impacts on broader socio economic policies and trends, such as those related to development, sustainability and equity

The global sustainability perspective

Source: IPCC TAR

Aligning objectives

• Effective mitigation policies would also further other sustainable development goals (economic, equity, environmental)– Maximising co benefits of the mitigation strategy – Implementing no regrets options

• The key linkages between mitigation and development are many - macroeconomic impacts, employment creation, inflation, trade

Consideration of no regrets options• Design policies that reduce GHG emissions at no or negative costs - ‘no regrets’ options

• No regret option could involve – Reduction of market imperfections– Double dividend - recycling of revenues of carbon taxes to offset distortionary taxes– Maximising incidental benefits - ancillary benefits

• The exact magnitude, scale and scope of ancillary benefits and costs will vary with local geographical and baseline conditions

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Autonomous body established by WMO and UNEP in 1988

The Mandate • IPCC assesses scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant

for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.

• It does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters.

• IPCC reports are neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies.

The Principles

• The experts represented in the IPCC are geographically balanced and cover all the IPCC regions

• IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.

• The IPCC process ensures objectivity, transparency, openness by allowing rigorous review of all its reports

• The review process involves experts who have expertise in specific areas, experts chosen by governments and experts chosen by appropriate organizations

The ProcessCompilation of list of CLA, LA, Expert Reviewers, Review editors and Government FP

Selection of LA

Preparation of Draft Report

First review

Second Review

Preparation of Final draft Report

Government, participating organisations WG Bureaux

WG Bureau

CLA and LA

Experts

Government, CLA, LA, CA, ER

CLA, LA in consultation with ER

The IPCC outputs • The Assessment Reports consist of 3 Volumes

– Working Group I - assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

– Working Group II - addresses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.

– Working Group III - assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.

– Each of WG reports are accompanied by a Summary for Policy Makers and a Technical Summary

• The Task Force on Inventory (TFI) - has developed the GHG National Inventories (Methodology and Worksheets) and the Good Practice Guidance

• Special Reports on specific issues

• Technical papers

• Synthesis Report - Scientific responses to

specific policy relevant questions

The Current Bureau of the IPCC

Issues, priorities and the way forward

The Fourth Assessment Report• Improved coordination between the WGs to produce an integrated

assessment of the status of scientific knowledge -addressing cross cutting issues by adopting themes for AR4

• Effort would be made to make it more ‘policy relevant’ by providing the public with – better regional scale assessment– quantification of uncertainties and – incorporating risk and uncertainty in a manner that is easily understood

• This round of assessment would also focus on integrated approaches to adaptation and mitigation in minimising climate related damages

• Focus on developing countries – Inspire further research– involve experts as lead authors

• Provide adequate coverage on socio-economic analysis of actions (adaptation and /or mitigation) Vs inaction and co benefits at a regional level

• Preserving and enhancing the scientific integrity and credibility of IPCC outputs

Nature has implanted in the human breast ability to cope with any difficulty or suffering that may

come to man unprovoked