StateoftheMarketLilyDonge,BRC/RMILethaTawney,WRI18September,2017SantaClaraConventionCenter,SantaClara,CA
/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17
Agenda
State oftheMarket
MarketTrends
Regulated Markets
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Transactionbarriers:allattendees
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Transactionbarriers:buyers
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Transactionbarriers:developers
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NewDeals:corporatedemandinGW2017 has already surpassed 2016 total
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47corporationshavesigneddealstodateBuyer Capacity (MW)Google F500 1861Amazon F500 1135Apple F500 764Microsoft F500 463Walmart F500 387Anheuser-BuschInBev F500 372Equinix 330Facebook F500 274IKEA 263OwensCorning F500 250Kimberly Clark F500 245Mars 200DowChemical F500 200Switch 179T-Mobile 160KaiserPermanente 153Procter&Gamble F500 138Volkswagen 1303M F500 120GeneralMotors F500 114HPE F500 112DeAcero 110GeneralMills F500 100Johnson &Johnson F500 100
Buyer Capacity (MW)Target F500 100DigitalRealty 88USDelphiAutomotive 80Cummins F500 75Solvay 71Philips F500 70GoldmanSachs F500 68Salesforce F500 64JPMorgan F500 55IronMountain 52Corning F500 50BectonDickinson F500 30LockheedMartin F500 30Steelcase 25Yahoo 23PartnersHealthCare 22AveryDennison 20Bloomberg 20Cisco F500 20PayPal F500 15Aerojet Rocketdyne 12SCJohnson 11AkamaiTechnologies 7
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13of15newbuyersin2017
Firsttimetransactor
*Signedmultipledealsin2017
Buyer Capacity (MW)Apple* F500 400Anheuser-BuschInBev* F500 372Kimberly Clark* F 500 245T-Mobile 216DeAcero 110Target F500 100GeneralMills F500 100Cummins F500 75Solvay 71GoldmanSachs F500 68JPMorgan F500 55Facebook F500 30PartnersHealthCare 22Paypal F500 15AkamaiTechnologies 7
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44developershaveparticipatedtodateDeveloper #ofDeals Capacity (MW)NextEra 9 759EDFRenewableEnergy 7 731Invenergy 5 695MidAmericanEnergy 2 548RESAmericas 4 458Iberdrola Renewables 2 428EnelGreenPower 4 426ApexCleanEnergy 5 356FirstSolar 3 309EDPRenewables 5 296Avangrid Renewables 2 256LincolnCleanEnergy 2 253ChermacEnergy 1 239SunEdison 2 217BNBRenewableEnergy 1 200BordasWindEnergy 1 200Tradewind Energy 1 200TechrenSolarLLC 1 200EverPower 1 189E.ON 2 188CommunityEnergy 2 180CapitalPower 1 178
Buyer #ofDeals Capacity (MW)SunPower 6 178DukeEnergy 3 172PatternEnergyGroup 1 150MexicoPowerGroup 1 130PioneerGreenEnergy 1 116Sempra 1 110InfinityRenewables 2 107Alterra Power 1 103VirginiaSolarLLC 1 80NRG 2 75Origis Energy 1 72Dominion 1 71CypressCreekRenewables 1 61Constellation 1 42Akuo Energy 1 40Enbridge 1 40AffordableSolar 1 30NewJerseyResources 1 27WaldenGreenEnergy 1 22APS 1 15SiliconRanchCorporation 1 12SpartanRenewableEnergy 1 11
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10of19newdevelopersin2017Developer #ofDeals Capacity (MW)Enel GreenPower 2 312Avangrid Renewables 2 256Iberdrola Renewables 1 220Techren SolarLLC 1 200Invenergy 1 125EDFRenewableEnergy 1 120Sempra 1 110InfinityRenewables 2 107RESAmericas 1 100EDPRenewables 1 75Dominion 1 71.4NextEra 1 68NRG 1 55AffordableSolar 1 30WaldenGreenEnergy 1 21.6APS 1 15
Firsttimetransactor
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Agenda
StateoftheMarket
MarketTrends
Regulated Markets
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Pricesremainunpredictable
Source:SNL
$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 12/1/2014 3/1/2015 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017
AverageSPPpriceshavefallen~50%since2014
SPPSouthSPPNorth
SPPDay-AheadPrices,2014-2017
($/M
Wh)
2015 2016 2017
?PTC/ITC
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Smallerdealssupport25%ofthemarket
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2016 2017
Transactionsunder40MW AverageannualMWcontribution
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Solutionsforsmallerappetites
BenefitsforsellersBenefitsforbuyers
• Access to economies of scale, even if deal size is smaller
• Risk mitigation• More flexibility on tenor• Transaction simplification
• Access to more buyers• Investment-grade counterparty
Benefitsvarybyspecificaggregationsolution,butamongthemare:
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Aggregateddealactivityinnext12months?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Minimal Moderate Extensive
Allocatio
nofvotes
Buyer Developer Serviceprovider Utility NGO/Other
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Thetrendismovingupthesupplychain
Source: Walmart
• Goal<1Gigaton fromthesupplychainby2030
• Energy– keyareasupplierscanmakecommitments
• Supplierssettheirowngoalsandreportannually
ProjectGigaton - Walmart
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WhathavebuyersdoneregardingScope3?1=nowork|5=executedtransactions
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1 2 3 4 5
Allocatio
nofvotes
Buyer Serviceprovider NGO/Other
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WeAreStillIn
Sectors Total Metrics
States 9 TotalGDP:$6.2TrillionCitiesandCounties 238 Population:130millionHigherEducation 325 Enrollment FTE:4.2million
Endowment:$122BillionBusinessesandInvestors(35Fortune500entities)
1,728 TotalAnnualRevenue:$2.3TrillionTotalAssetsUnderManagement:$2.5TrillionTotalUSEmployees:4.8Million
TotalSignatories 2,300
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Highprofile“RExits”
Microsoft:PugetSoundEnergyMGM:NevadaPower
1 https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/How-MGM-Prepared-Itself-to-Leave-Nevadas-Biggest-Utility
• May2016,Nevada
• Seekingenergyindependenceandmorerenewables1
• MGMgoalis46%renewables– Nevada’sRenewableEnergyStandardrequires23%
• $87millionRExit fee
• MGMworkingwithTenaskatoprocure171MWtooperate
• April2017,Washingtonstate
• Seekingrenewableenergytomeetsustainabilitygoals
• RExit ~80%WAheadquartersenergyuse
• $24millionRExit fee
• Contributedtothecreationofagreentariff,andalreadyattractedStarbucksandREI
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Agenda
StateoftheMarket
MarketTrends
RegulatedMarkets
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Moreutilitiesareengaging
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Moredealsarehappening– fornewload
/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17Source:2016,USEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),BureauofEconomicAnalysis,BloombergTerminal
Changefrom
1990
Economicgrowthnolongerdrivesenergydemand
USGDP&PrimaryEnergyConsumption(indexed)
Thereisnogrowthindemandoverall
/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17Source:EIAAnnualEnergyOutlook2017
GrowthingasandREoutstripsthefallincoal–exports?
EIAforecasts20%productionincrease
/REBuyersAlliance #REBA17Source:BNEFSustainableEnergyinAmericaFACTBOOK2017&https://www.bnef.com/core/insights/15860
So… lowprices!(andunderusedassets)