State of the Mobile Industry -- Innotech Portland

The State of Mobile Technology

Work: http://cloudfour.com • Blog: http://userfirstweb.com • http://mobileportland.com Twitter: @grigs • [email protected]

Flickr: Uploaded February 11, 2007 by hawridger

by Jason Grigsby

http://www.cloudfour.com


http://userfirstweb.com


http://mobileportland.com


3.3BillionMobile phone for half the planet.

Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/


3.3 Billion in Perspective

Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.htmlhttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html


http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html


2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion

Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/


2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion

•Box Office•DVD Sales & Rentals•Music Industry•Video Games

CombinedFlickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/



•Box Office•DVD Sales & Rentals•Music Industry•Video Games

CombinedFlickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

200 billion for data services in 2008(SMS accounts for 130B)



Mobile Phone Adoption Still Growing

• China Mobile has 317 million subscribers—more than U.S. population.

• China total market is half a billion users. They are adding 6 million subscribers per month.

• 28% of mobile phone owners have two or more subscriptions.

• Average for industrialized countries is over 100% subscriber rate, led by 140% subscriber rate for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy and Israel. (U.S. is at a paltry 80%)

• Percentage of younger phone users increasing. Normal for children under 10 years old to have a phone in Europe and Asia.

• Population grows by 3 people a second. 38 mobile devices a second.

The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html

Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •

http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html


http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/


http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/




http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/


http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/


http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/


http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/


http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
































































































































“I’m not sure we can call it a wave. Tsunami?”

— Eric Peterson, Leading Web Analytics Author & Consultant

Flickr photo by look4u: http://www.flickr.com/photos/look4u/279668622/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/look4u/279668622/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/look4u/279668622/

It's the recreation of the

Internet, it's the recreation of

the PC story and it is before us

— and it is very likely it will

happen in the next year.

Eric Schmidt, Google CEO speaking at Davos, January 2008

Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/


Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/

Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.(for 15 years)



“The Mother of all Markets.”

Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk CEO, 2008

John Sculley, Apple CEO, 1992

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260



Gopher, Mosaic, WAP, iPhone

Flickr photo by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/














Source: NetApplications, August 2008Graphic courtesy Raven Zachary, http://raven.me

U.S. Mobile Browser Share

http://raven.me

http://raven.me

“It’s about usage. Not units”

• Number of queries on Google search from iPhones surpassed those from Symbian-based phones in the days after Christmas. Nokia’s Symbian-based phones are 40% of the market worldwide.

• German iPhone users consume 30 times more data.

• 95% of iPhone customers regularly surf the Internet. Data services revenue increased from $2.7 billion in 2005 to $6.9 billion in 2007.

• Google sees 50 times the number of searches using the iPhone than any other mobile device. They were so surprised, they asked their engineers to check the logs to make sure it was correct.

• This is why major companies, Google, Quicken, etc. are all launching iPhone-optimized services despite the iPhone’s 1% market share.

Adoption of Internet

• In 1994, best estimates were 20 to 30 million people on the Internet. That is less that 1% of the world’s population at the time.

• In 2007, 12% of carrier revenue is data services and only 16% of users access the web on those devices once a month.

• 1994, 5% of people surveyed said that they were willing to pay fees for web access. 97% of people were using Mosiac and a text browser, Lynx was #2

• Late 1994, 18% using Netscape and 71% said they might pay depending on cost and quality.

The Hope for Mobile

What is the

likelihood of

exponential

growth for the

Internet on Mobile

Devices?

Daily

Weekly

Ever in Month

0 17500 35000 52500 70000

63182

19283

22369

36870

10312

10821

Jan 08 Jan 09

http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2752

Unique Users (000s)

Mobile Web Doubled in 2008



Mobile Internet to Grow Despite Recession

U.S. Europe

Current Users 58% 55%

Non-Users 27% 28%

Average intended usage increase over the next 24 months

http://www.tellabs.com/news/2009/index.cfm/nr/53.cfm



Top Five Services Non-users Intend to Start Using in the Next 24 Months

U.S. Europe

Mobile Internet 49% 34%

MMS 38% 39%

Uploading Photos 34% 27%

Software/app download 30% 30%

Email 28% 32%

Surprise Story of 2008

Flickr photo by Drift Words: http://www.flickr.com/photos/44124413076@N01/11846265/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/44124413076@N01/11846265/


Web 2.0Web-based Apps

Services & MashupsSoftware as ServiceCloud Computing

iPhone App StoreNative Apps

Few APIs between appsNo Recurring Revenue

Local Storage

Flickr photo by Civisi: http://www.flickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/top_10_web_platforms_of_2008.php



Carriers App Store

Openness

Entry Cost

Revenue Split

Restrictions

Releases

Micropayments

Closed, Seek permissionOpen to anyone

who signs agreement

Thousands of dollars $99

60/40 to 50/50 70/30

Many Few

Difficult, Timely 1 to 2 weeks

Inconsistent iTunes for every phone

What makes the App Store successful?

http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123

http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266

http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm

30 million devices

25,000 apps

800 million downloads

http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#

http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#



http://www.businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm

http://www.businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm

Gold Rush was On

Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores

Ringtone Apps

(FYI: Justin’s app is out soon. GymRat. $4.99)

http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/

http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170

http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170

http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/

http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/

0

3750

7500

11250

15000

0 1.99 3.99 5.99 7.99 9.99 11.99 13.99 15.99+

Ringtone Apps

http://148apps.com/10000



Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales:$32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue

http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/

Dapple



Throwaway Apps

http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/



Pinch Media’s Conclusions

•Users stop using the average applications quickly.

•Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloads

•Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop off.





25,000 Apps

&

Findability?



iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

17949

7443

47144079

3195

327 437

Symbian RIM Windows Mobile iPhone LinuxPalm OS Other

Q4 2008 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Unitshttp://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112

Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o

Objective C

Java ME

WebOS

C++

.NET Compact

BREW

Dalvik

Visual Basic

C

Symbian Windows Mobile

Palm

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o

Google Mobile — App Challenges

•Pressure from CEO for rapid releases

•10+ platforms to support

•Over 100 different builds

http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/



http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/

3.3 Billion in Perspective

Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.htmlhttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html





Mobile Internet to Grow Despite Recession

U.S. Europe

Current Users 58% 55%

Non-Users 27% 28%

Average intended usage increase over the next 24 months

http://www.tellabs.com/news/2009/index.cfm/nr/53.cfm



Mobile = Rapid Convergence

• PDAs — In 2000, there were 10 million PDAs sold. Today, PDAs sell less than 10 million per year while smartphones sell more than 120 million annually.

• Digital Cameras — In 2006, there were 450 million cameraphones sold compared to almost 90 million standalone cameras.

• MP3 Players — “At the end of 2004, Apple’s iPod had held an 80% market share of the global MP3 player market.” In 2005, handset manufacturers got serious about adding music to their phones. By 2006, musicphone sales of 309 million dwarfed iPod sales of 46 million units.

BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue

Flickr photo by MarkKelley: http://www.flickr.com/photos/markkelley/1022720488/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/markkelley/1022720488/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/markkelley/1022720488/

Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

Thank You for Your Time!

Work: http://cloudfour.com • Blog: http://userfirstweb.com • Twitter: @grigs Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com









Date post:	17-Oct-2014
Category:	Technology
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