State of the Nation - VisitCanberra Corporate...Figures in brackets represent ‘change since...

State of the Nation Spotlight on Tourism

Portia Morgan

July 2019

Trust is the foundation of all human

connections – from intimate relationships to everyday business transactions

But it’s Distrust where our deepest

fears, pain and betrayal surface

The shock of discovering we were foolish to trust too much

5

• Making an online purchase

• Using Uber

• Taking a flight

• Going on a date

• Providing credit card details over the phone

• Opening a door to strangers

• Getting married

• Believing the news

Trust is the foundation of all human connections

6

Once we discover we were foolish to trust too much, it prevents us from:

• Making an online purchase

• Booking an Uber

• Planning a flight

• Going on a date

• Giving credit card details over the phone

• Opening the door to a stranger

• Getting married

• Believing the news

But distrust destroys social cohesion - instantly

7

Most Important Problems Facing the World

Base: Australian population aged 18+

Source; Roy Morgan nation-wide telephone survey June 12-13, 2019 (n=638).

16%

Economic 21%

12%

Environmental 46%

0

20

40

60

%

8

Most Important Problems Facing Australia


Source; Roy Morgan nation-wide telephone survey June 12-13, 2019 (n=638).

14%

Economic 34%

15%

Environmental 24%

0

20

40

60

%

Tourism Matters

‘Tourism is potentially a country’s most valuable ‘New Age’ export industry’

10

Key Exports: Iron Ore, Coal, Gas & Education

Source dfat.gov.org

Rank Product $AUD Bn 2012-13

$AUD Bn 2017-18

$AUD Bn (%) Change

1. Iron ore $57.1 $61.4 +$4.3 (+7%)

2. Coal $38.6 $60.4 +$21.8 (+56%)

3. Education $14.5 $32.4 +$17.9 (+123%)

4. Natural gas $14.3 $30.9 +$16.6 (+116%)

5. Tourism $12.6 $21.6 +$9.0 (+71%)

6. Gold $15.3 $19.3 +$4.0 (+26%)

7. Aluminium $5.6 $9.4 +$3.8 (+68%)

8. Beef $5.1 $8.0 +$2.9 (+57%)

9. Crude Oil $9.7 $6.5 -$3.2 (-33%)

10. Copper $5.4 $5.7 +$0.3 (+6%)

11

Australia’s Biggest Export Markets

(2012-13 cf. 2017-18)

Source dfat.gov.org

Rank Country $AUD Bn 2012-13

$AUD Bn 2017-18

$AUD Bn (%) Change

1. China $84.6 $123.3 +$38.7 (+46%)

2. Japan $48.6 $51.3 +$2.7 (+6%)

3. South Korea $20.8 $23.6 +$2.8 (+13%)

4. USA $14.5 $21.4 +$6.9 (+48%)

5. India $13.3 $21.1 +$7.8 (+59%)

6. Hong Kong $11.9 $14.5 +$2.6 (+22%)

7. New Zealand $10.9 $14.4 +$3.5 (+32%)

8. Singapore $10.0 $13.2 +$3.2 (+32%)

9. UK $9.4 $11.8 +$2.4 (+25%)

10. Taiwan $8.2 $10.9 +$2.7 (+33%)

New Era for Tourism

Economy

14

Australia Today

[1] Australian Bureau of Statistics; March 2019

[2] Reserve Bank of Australia; May 2019

[3] Australian Bureau of Statistics; March 2019

[4] Finance.Yahoo.com.au – June 17, 2019

15

Standard Variable Interest Rates

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

6.50%

7.50% (Dec '94 - Jul '96)

7.25% (Mar-Sep 2008)

3.00%

1.25% (June 2019)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Record low:

Global Financial Crisis September 2008

RBA Emergency low GFC interest rates

16

Australia Today

Unemployment[2]

9.2% 9.4% 0.5

Under

Employment[2]

Consumer

Confidence[1]

118.9 4.0

114.7 0.3

Business

Confidence[3]

p 0.3

p p

p

• [1] Roy Morgan Face-to-Face; June 29/30, 2019; Australian population aged 14+

• [2] Roy Morgan Face-to-Face Survey; June 2019;

Australian population aged 14+ in Workforce

• [3] Roy Morgan Business Single Source; June 2019

17

Roy Morgan Business Confidence

Source; Roy Morgan Business survey (2010-2019). An average of 1,000 interviews per month with Australian businesses.

131.5

132.9

130.5

128.2

99.8

101.8

118.7

108.9

112.2

105.4

117.6

109.3

114.8

123.8

112.7

136.3

125.2

131.5

117.3

120.9

108.1

119.1

122.9

114.9

123.0

105.3

114.9

105.7 105.1

114.8

102.6

119.3

110.6

123.1

111.9

119.5

108.6

116.7 116.8

111.4

116.6

111.8

117.0

112.7

123.5

115.4

118.6

110.2

113.8

112.2

105.6

105.9

106.7

102.9

114.7

D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A

10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

June 2019

Base: Australian businesses

Society

19

Population Growth - Driven by Immigration

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Base: Australian aged 0+

https://w ww.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3101.0

25,180,200

15,000,000

17,500,000

20,000,000

22,500,000

25,000,000

27,500,000

20 © 2019 Written approval must be obtained from Roy Morgan before circulation or publication of this data outside the client’s institution. Store.roymorgan.com

Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 months to March 2007 and 12 months to March 2017

Everything is happening later in life

Own home

Have a home loan

Renting

With Parents

Shared Household

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

14

-15

16

-17

18

-19

20

-21

22

-24

25

-29

30

-34

35

-39

40

-44

45

-49

50

-54

55

-59

60

-64

65

-69

70

-74

75

-79

80

+

% o

f A

ustr

alian

s 14+

Po

pu

lati

on

2007

2018

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) Base: Australian population aged 14+

21

It’s Official: Australia is an experience economy


Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) April 2008 – March 2019

$101.2

Dollars spent on leisure and entertainment

$148.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

An

nu

al sp

en

d

($b

illi

on

s)

Almost $150 billion on experiences

vs

Almost $120 billion on discretionary goods

Holiday Attitudes & Activities

23

Overseas holidays becoming more desirable, weekend getaways less popular

80.6%

I like to take holidays within Australia

75.4%

46.8%

I like to go away on weekends

42.6%

8.3%

It only feels like a holiday if I leave

Australia 11.5%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

(%

) o

f A

ustr

alian

s 14+



24

More people like others to plan their holiday

27.7%

I enjoy holidays where everything is organised

for you 33.2%

23.8%

I usually leave holiday arrangements to

someone else

25.5%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

(%

) o

f A

ustr

alian

s 14+



25

Trend toward desiring cultural experiences and ecotourism

68.6% I'd like to holiday

where I can experience the local

culture

72.4%

19.3%

For my next holiday, I'd really like a total

ecotourism experience

21.1%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

(%

) o

f A

ustr

alian

s 14+



Technology

27

Internet is now ubiquitous


Source: Roy Morgan; 12 month moving average

More Than Once A Day, 81.3%

Once A Day, 4.5% A Few Times A Week,

3.9% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

28

Traditional Websites and Search (visited in an average 4 weeks)

Represents a change in methodology from respondent recall to machine based measurement



Portals, 89.0%Search, 90.2%

Email, 77.2%

Directories, 61.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

29

Commercial & Community Websites

(visited in an average 4 weeks) Online Communities &

Messaging Sites, 89.7%

Online Auction Sites,

65.3%

Real Estate and

Renovation Sites, 31.7%

News & Newspaper

Sites, 76.3%Banking Sites, 69.3%

Travel Sites, 48.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%




30

Major Online Community Websites (visited in an average 4 weeks)

Facebook, 83.5%

LinkedIn, 23.9%

Twitter, 30.3%

YouTube, 75.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%




31

Types of Mobile Phone Used


Source: Roy Morgan; discrete 12 month average

Smart Phones, 85%

Dumb Phones, 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Au

str

alian

P

op

ula

tio

n 1

4+

32

Apps Ever Downloaded

76.2%

48.6%

62.3%

43.9%

72.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

Any App (unprompted)

Newspaper & Other News Apps

Magazine Apps

Radio & Music Apps

Banking Apps

Social Media Apps

Sports Apps

TV Apps

News, Newspaper & TV Apps

Game Apps

Any App (listed apps)

Information and booking

34 Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) Jan ‘18 to Dec ‘18 Base: Australian population aged 14+ ( )=Change since Dec’08

Places obtained information when choosing destination of last trip

Any Destination Domestic Destinations Overseas Destinations

(+4.7%)

(-1.9%)

(+2.6%)

(+1.5%)

(+3.6%)

(+2.9%)

(+1.1%)

(-4.1%)

(-1.6%)

(+0.1%)

(-1.5%)

(-19.5%)

(+5.0%)

(-2.4%)

(+3.6%)

(-9.7%)

(+3.2%)

(-0.1%) (+0.3%)

(-1.5%)

(-4.4%)

Figures in brackets represent ‘change since Dec’08’

The internet is most instrumental in choosing a destination, especially overseas travel

Word-of-mouth is the second most important tool for domestic travellers, while overseas travellers rely more on travel agents (though Travel Agent have lost traction overtime).

35 Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) Jan ‘18 to Dec ‘18 Base: Australian population aged 14+

Internet booking is on a continuous growth spree, while ‘In person’ booking is more popular among overseas travellers

Booking Methods Used for Last Trip

Any Destination Domestic Destinations Overseas Destinations

Figures in brackets represent ‘change since Dec’08’

(-4.0%)

(+1.3%)

(+19.3%) (+16.8%) (+22.7%)

(-5.5%) (-4.2%)

(-25.1%)

(-11.8%) (-12.0%) (-11.6%)

36

19.2%

16.6%

14.4%

10%

7.7%

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) Jan’18 to Dec’18 Base: Australian population aged 14+

Half of the domestic (48.2%) and overseas travellers (50.4%) have used online agencies, with Booking.com being used by 1 in 5

Domestic Travellers Overseas Travellers

24.6%

20.8%

18.2%

11.8%

10.6%

Top 5 Travel Agents / Tour Operators (L12M) are dominated by online brands

What’s happening

38

39

40

41

42

43

Australian Travel

45

Top 10 Accommodation Types used

33.5%

17.9%

13.8%

9.7%

7.0% 6.8% 6.2% 5.5% 4.7%

3.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Friend's/Relative'shome

Standardhotel/motel or

resort

4 star hotel orresort

Rented fully self-contained flat,

unit, etc.

Luxury hotel orresort: 5 star

Tent, camping Rented house Rented servicedapartment

Own holidayhouse, flat

Cruise Ship

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) April 2018 – March 2019 Base: Australian population aged 14+ who took a trip of one or more nights in the last 12 months.

46 Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) ; Jan-Dec’18 Base: Australian population aged 14+ who have been on a trip and gave activity The charts only include activities over 10%

Relaxation and visiting family/friends is still the top activity for both domestic and international travellers, followed by food/eating

• Overseas travellers

indulge in a lot more

activities compared to

domestic travellers

• Food, shopping and

nature make up a

significant % of activities

done by Domestic

travellers.

47

Population growth drives travel numbers



48

Australians are taking fewer trips

3.2

All Australians2.8

4.6Total travellers

4.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0




Australians are staying away for shorter periods

5.8

Last Australian Holiday

5.6

31.9

Last Overseas Holiday

21.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Av

era

ge

nu

mb

er

of

nig

hts

Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) January 2001 – March 2019, 12 month moving average, sample n = 13,154


Holidays Taken – Trends

Top 5 Domestic

1. Melbourne

2. Sydney

3. Brisbane

4. North Coast

NSW

5. Canberra

Top 5 Overseas

1. New Zealand

2. England

3. United States

4. Bali

5. France

68.5%

65.9%

12.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Au

str

alian

s ag

ed

14+

(%

)

Have been on holiday in the last 12 months

13,741,000

Holidayed Overseas

5,455,000 (26.5%)

Holidayed Domestically

12,596,000 (61.2%)

(66.8%)

Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) January 2001 – March 2019, 12 month moving average, sample n = 14,722

51 Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) Base: Australian population aged 14+

Looking at domestic visitation over the last decade, NSW continues to lead, recovering recently from a drop in 2011-2013.

Queensland moves down the ladder, with Victoria moving to 2nd position.

Air Travel

53

Air Travel – International Airlines used in the last 12 months

5.8%

4.0% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1%

2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Base: All respondents 14+

54

Air Travel - Domestic Airlines travelled in last 12 months



20.8% 19.1%

17.5%

5.4%

3.7%

1.6% 0.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Qantas (Domestic) Jetstar (Domestic) Virgin Australia(Domestic) (Revised

Jul11, Jul15)

Tigerair (Domestic) QantasLink Rex (RegionalExpress)

Other Domestic airline

55

Frequent Flyer Memberships

18.3%

29.0%

7.4%

19.4%

5.3% 6.2%

0.8% 1.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Apr08-Mar09 Apr09-Mar10 Apr10-Mar11 Apr11-Mar12 Apr12-Mar13 Apr13-Mar14 Apr14-Mar15 Apr15-Mar16 Apr16-Mar17 Apr17-Mar18 Apr18-Mar19

Air New Zealand Air Points

Qantas

Virgin Australia Velocity

% A

ust

ralia

ns

Age

d 1

4+

Other Rewards Program

56

140 million days of leave accrued!

Base: Australian population aged 14+, Paid Workers


None 31.2%

less than 4 weeks 28.5%

4-5 weeks 12.0%

more than 5 weeks 13.2%

can't say 15.0%

Where will we go?


Holiday intention slowing – but Overseas intention is increasing

68.5%

59.9%

5.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Au

str

alian

s a

ged

14+

(%

)

Intend to take a holiday

in the next 12 months

13,811,000 (67.2%)

Next holiday will be

Overseas 2,171,000 (10.6%)

Next holiday will be

Domestic 10,743,000 (52.2%)

Base: Australians aged 14+

Roy Morgan Single Source: January 2001 - March 2019, 12 month moving average, sample n = 20,037


Where Australians would like to go

83.6%

81.2%

42.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Au

str

ali

an

s a

ge

d 1

4+

(%

)

Preferred holiday

is Overseas

10,185,000

Preferred holiday is

Domestic 14,825,000 (72.1%)

Top 5 Domestic

1. Melbourne

2. Sydney

3. Great Ocean

Road

4. Hobart

5. Blue

Mountains

Top 5 Overseas

1. New Zealand

2. United States

3. England

4. Japan

5. Canada



Would like to take

a holiday in the

next 2 years

16,168,000 (78.6%)


Japan has increased in popularity – Asian Destinations Australians would like to visit

2.5%

Japan, 9.8%

5.1% Bali, 5.3%

3.6%Thailand, 4.6%

2.4%

Singapore, 4.3%

2.6%

Vietnam, 3.6%

1.7%

China (mainland), 2.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Au

str

alia

ns

ag

ed

14

+ (

%)



Preference to travel to Canberra

62

Recently more Australians are visiting Canberra

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) 12MMA April 2002 to March 2019; Thinking about all holidays that you've taken in the last 12 months. Which places have you

stayed at for at least one night?

Base: Australian population 14+

8.6%

9.6% 9.1%

8.4%

6.2%

5.8%

4.4% 4.3%

3.5% 3.9%

3.1% 3.2%

1.9%

2.8%

1.0% 1.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Canberra

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

DarwinAu

str

ali

an

s A

ge

d 1

4+

(%

)

63

In the next two years Australians want to visit Melbourne and Sydney; Canberra is higher than Brisbane

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) 12MMA April 2002 to March 2019; In the next 2 years, w hich place w ould you like to spend a holiday?


19.4% 20.2%

14.3%

10.7% 9.8% 9.3%

11.0%

7.9%

8.2% 7.8%

10.5%

7.5%

7.8% 6.8%

6.5% 5.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Melbourne

Sydney

Hobart

Perth

Canberra

Brisbane

Adelaide

Darwin

Au

str

ali

an

s A

ge

d 1

4+

(%

)

64

Sydneysiders are most likely to want to visit Canberra in next 2 years followed by Melburnians

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) 12MMA April 2002 to March 2019; "In the next 2 years, w hich places w ould you like to spend a holiday (nett trip)?"


8.3% 7.8%

3.0%

3.0%

1.2% 1.4%

1.6%

1.2%

1.5%

1.1% 1.0%

1.1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Australians

Sydneysiders

Melburnians

Other

NSW Regional(excl. ACT)

Queenslanders

Au

str

ali

an

s A

ge

d 1

4+

(%

)

65

Australians with a Preference to Travel to Canberra in the next 2 years

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) 12MMA April 2002 to March 2019; "In the next 2 years, w hich places w ould you like to spend a holiday (nett trip)?"


1,313,000

1,607,000

481,000 623,000

197,000 296,000

247,000

244,000 233,000

225,000

153,000 218,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Australians

Sydney

Melbourne

Other

NSW Regional (excl.ACT)

Queensland

Au

str

ali

an

s A

ge

d 1

4+

66

For the next trip, Canberra is becoming more popular

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) 12MMA April 2002 to March 2019; "Thinking about your next trip, w here w ill you stay?


8.9%

9.6%

7.4%

5.9% 5.8%

4.2% 3.0% 3.5%

2.7% 2.9%

3.3%

2.9%

3.2%

2.8%

1.5% 1.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Canberra

Hobart

Perth

Adelaide

Darwin

Au

str

ali

an

s A

ge

d 1

4+

(%

)

What happens next?

68

ROY MORGAN PLATFORM

Transactional data

Consumer spend

Entertainment

Loans/Finance

Telco

Client’s own

Roy

Morgan

Data

Universes

Device

Mobile

Cookies

Address

DMPs

Digital Platforms

Facebook Google

The Trade Desk Adobe

Eyeota

Traditional Media

Out Of Home TV

Radio Print

Catalogues

Geography

Meshblock

SA1

Post Code

x/y, address

Data Integration &

Enrichment

69

70

Changing Landscape

NEO TRAVEL TRENDS

& DISRUPTIONS

1. Virtual reality lets travellers try before

booking

2. Find-engines are replacing search engines

3. Curators are replacing non-PLU ranters

4. Digital curators will kill travel storefronts

5. Micro-treasures are the new destinations

6. Live video streams of experiences – BIG

7. Hyper-local dining is the next BIG treasure

8. More use smartphone than desktop for

travel

9. Tracking where travellers have been

10.Using Deep Data to personalise

experiences

Questions

More information

Portia Morgan John La Rosa

Head of Client Services General Manager Agencies

[email protected] [email protected]

03 9223 2436 02 9021 9115

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Date post:	05-Jun-2020
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