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State of the Scottish Economy
Richard Murray
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
26th March 2010
Synchronised Global Downturn
Percentage Change Over the Year
GDP Growth for Advanced Economies
France UK Japan US
Source: Reuters EcoWin
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Perc
ent
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Output Remains Below Pre-Crisis Levels
Quarterly GDP Index (Q2 2008=100)
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Q1-2005 Q3-2005 Q1-2006 Q3-2006 Q1-2007 Q3-2007 Q1-2008 Q3-2008 Q1-2009 Q3-2009
Ind
ex
Germany Japan UK US
Start of Synchronised
Downturn
Source: OECD
Scotland Remains in RecessionScottish & UK GDP Growth
(Quarter-on-Quarter)
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
Pe
rce
nt
Scotland UK
Broad-Based Decline in OutputPerformance of Scottish Sectors During Recession
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Total Production Construction Services
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
han
ge
in G
DP
Scottish Unemployment Continues to Rise
Scottish & UK Unemployment Rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Pe
rce
nt
Scotland UK
Flexibility in UK Labour MarketChange in UK Average Hours and Earnings
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2006 2007 2008 2009% C
ha
ng
e o
n P
revio
us
Ye
ar
Average Hours Average Earnings (including bonuses)
Decline in UK Net Lending
Annual Growth
UK Net Lending to Business
M4 Lending, Private non-financial corporations
M4 Lending, Unincorporated businesses and non-profit making institutions
Source: Reuters EcoWin
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Perc
ent
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
Future Prospects
Scotland Close to Emerging from Recession
Markit PMI Scotland Survey of Private Sector Output
35
40
45
50
55
60
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
Total Services Manufacturing
Modest Recovery Forecast for Scotland
Latest Independent Forecasts for Scottish GDP Growth
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GD
P G
row
th
Forecast
Official GDP FAI (Feb 10)
Experian (Nov 09)
Item Club (Nov 09)
Cambridge (Mar 10)
Treasury’s Latest ForecastsUK GDP Forecasts
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2009 2010 2011 2012
% C
ha
ng
e o
n P
rev
iou
s Y
ea
r
Budget 2010 Average Independent Forecast
Risks Facing the Recovery
Withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures
Fiscal consolidation
Further adjustment required in financial sector
Concluding Thoughts
Scotland close to emerging from recession
Unemployment continues to rise
Risks from the global economy & fiscal consolidation
Modest growth predicted in 2010
Impact of the recession on young people
Susan Anton
Lifelong Learning Analytical Services
27 March 2010
Claimant Count Unemployment 18-24 Year Olds
ILO Youth Unemployment 16-24 Year Olds
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
16-24 25-49 50+
ILO
Une
mpl
oym
ent L
evel
s
Oct-Dec 2008 Oct-Dec 2009
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
16-24 25-49 50+
ILO
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
Oct-Dec 2008 Oct-Dec 2009
ILO Youth Unemployment 16-24 Year Olds
• Scotland had highest percentage point increase over year in 16-24 ILO rate
• However, it still retains second lowest youth ILO rate in UK
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
NorthernIreland
Scotland UK England Wales
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
16-2
4 Ye
ar O
lds
(%)
Oct-Dec 08 Oct-Dec 09
• Map indicates areas which have seen the largest increase in their share of additional unemployment since February 2008 for the 18-24 age group
• Central belt and the Borders seen the largest increase
Industrial breakdown of workers in Scotland
Industry16 to 21 year
olds in FT Employment
All Workers
Difference
Agriculture and Fishing 2.8% 2.1% 0.8%
Energy & Water 3.2% 3.0% 0.2%
Manufacturing 11.3% 10.0% 1.3%
Construction 17.1% 8.3% 8.8%
Distribution, Hotels & Restaurants 28.4% 18.9% 9.6%
Transport & Communication 3.8% 5.9% -2.0%
Banking, Finance & Insurance etc 12.5% 14.3% -1.8%
Public Administration, Education & Health 14.0% 31.8% -17.8%
Other Services 6.8% 5.8% 1.0%
Source: Annual Population Survey (July 2008 to June 2009)
Impact of Economic Situation Education at a Glance 2009, published by the OECD says that across
the 30 member countries, the economic crisis may -
‘increase the incentives for individuals to invest in Education, as worsening Labour Market prospects lower the opportunity
costs of Education, such as earnings foregone whilst studying’
Source: EAG 2009
http://www.oecd.org/document/24/0,3343,en_2649_39263238_43586328_1_1_1_1,00.html
Timing of the Statistics
• THE PAST – 2008/09 ACADEMIC YEAR
• What do the latest official statistics say?
• In 2008/09 there were an additional 3,240 Scots entering First Degree HE in Scotland (up 3% on 2007/08) to 101,905
• The amount of total ‘activity’ in Scotland’s Colleges increased slightly (by 0.6 per cent) on the amount seen during the previous year
• 2008/09 Academic Year coincides with start of recession
• However given lead-in times to participate in HE and FE, the impact of the downturn will be more limited (See Chart 1)
Scotland's Unemployment Rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Feb-Apr2007
May-Jul2007
Aug-Oct2007
Nov-Jan2008
Feb-Apr2008
May-Jul2008
Aug-Oct2008
Nov-Jan2009
Feb-Apr2009
May-Jul2009
Aug-Oct2009
Nov-Jan2010
Start of 2008/09 Academic Year (Similar to when the
recession started)
Source: Labour Force Survey (LFS)
Start of 2009/10
Academic Year
Chart 1: Scotland’s Official Unemployment Rate since 2007
Timing of the Statistics
• THE PRESENT – 2009/10 ACADEMIC YEAR
• What do the latest official statistics say? – We wont know for sure until January 2011! But we do know..
• 2008/09 School Leavers in Scotland displayed markedly different behaviour from the previous year (See Chart 2). Staying-on rates in School also increased
• An extra 5.6% of Scots applied for and accepted a place to do HE in the United Kingdom in 2009/10 (the vast majority will be in Scotland) - UCAS
Chart 2: School Leaver Destinations, 2002/03 to 2008/09
15
20
25
30
35
40
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Employment
Higher Education
Further Education
2009/10 Academic Year
Source: School Leaver Destination Statistics 2008/09
Timing of the Statistics
• THE FUTURE – 2010/11 ACADEMIC YEAR
• Will depend in large part on how the economic and Labour Market situation continues to develop over the coming months.
• There is an expectation of greater numbers of people leaving School in the Summer
• UCAS suggest large increases in the number of people applying to do Higher Education. Their first release, in February 2009, reported a 31% increase in Scots applicants. When you remove those additional applications due to procedural changes, the increase is 21%. This is similar to the UK as a whole.